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[gr8player]

I posted a rare Trip Report last week, explaining some difficulties regarding profit acquisition, as I pocketed but 4 units for the entire trip.  I further stated that I would, as per my variance play/strategy, be raising my base unit size at next trip, all in anticipation of an "upward correction" in my variance and profit maximization of same.  I also said that you'd be able to read about next trip's results right here in this forum....well, as promised:

Wednesday afternoon session:

Yes, I raised my unit sizes by 50%, not a large raise, but just enough to capitalize on an expected good session with a corresponding expected better-than-average strike rate.  OK.  Bottom line:  33 bets placed, 19 bets won and 14 bets lost, 57.5% strike rate, and hit my session win goal of 5 units, all @50% higher denomination.  Bottom line #2:  In my trip report last week, I reported my difficulties (even though I still won 4 units for the trip) with my strike rates, and said that I expect an upward correction and that I would raise my bet size in anticipation....well, I was right.  My 57.5% made up for my just-below-50% of last week, and my larger-than-normal unit size increased my profit from it.  All expected, all, business-as-usual as it pertains to variance play.  So let's go a bit further about that, as I continue with this TR:

Wednesday night session:

Wow.  Back to regular sized units, here's how easy this one was:   I won my first bet, lost my second bet, and then proceeded to win the next 7 bets in-a-row.  I cashed out at +7.  Easy-peasy.  BUUUTTT, you guys that know me know that I'm a variance player, and I don't hit at 90% too often, and so while I certainly enjoyed the win, you know another adjustment is coming:

Thursday afternoon session:

After last night's breeze, I decided to cut back my unit size by 25%, in anticipation of a downward correction in my strike rate.  Well, I played a shoe-and-a-half (a very slow game, with no one betting....very frustrating) and won exactly nothing, breaking out dead-even with a 50% strike rate.

Thursday night session:

Still playing a lower unit size, as I still expect, maybe, a downward correction:  Nope.  Wrong.  I placed 38 bets, winning 21 while losing only 17, and so now I picked up 4 units, again at lesser-sized.

OK.  Last session of trip:  Friday afternoon session:

Again, lower-sized units (25% off).  And yet, again, I won 3 units in a relatively-quick "getaway-day" session, where if I'm either not doing as well as I'd like OR the game is a lousy one with slow players...in this case it was the latter...I look to pick up a quick profit (any profit) and go.  You never want to fall behind and having to play "catch up" in the middle of a lousy, slow game, especially on "get-away" day.  OK.  So another 3 units, again reduced.

So, stuff happens.  I play a variance game, and now I left some money on the table because of it.  Next week, I'm going back to original unit sizes.  I can't reduce off of 4- and 3-unit wins, and, remember, I didn't....I only reduced after winning 8 out-of-9 bets at session #2.  Then I simply kept the reduction throughout the remainder of the trip, just in case I happened to hit some difficulty with a downward correction.  Well, there was nothing "downward" about this trip.  I never raised my bet for the entire trip, as I was in "1-ville" in my Gr8Player's Progression the entire time, which relates to simple flat-betting.

So, yeah, wow.  One word: wow.  My bet selection process is as good as it gets, mostly because of:

1.)  Consistency.  I never change, I never falter.  I am very well aware that I am but one bad bet away from blowing it all, and so I never waver, I never change, and I never falter.  Consistency.

2.)  Strike rate.  Over 50%.  Impossible, you say?  Think again.  I pick only my selected spots, and they don't let me down, at least not for too long, which brings me to the last but not least:

3.)  Variance.  A measurable (read: tight) variance, both upwards and downwards, which allows me to adjust my bet sizes accordingly.  I know my statistics, and I bet accordingly.  Either in the name of recoup or in the name of profit maximization, I am of the opinion that I am virtually unbeatable over the long term.  All because I play statistics that always seem to stay within their lines.  And as long as they do so, I will prevail over the house's edge.

Heck, I even had a session "bust-out" a few weeks ago (I reported of that as well, right here in this forum.), but by way of adjusting my unit sizes after that much-larger-than-normal downward variance, I recouped virtually all of that loss in my next session, easily.  And, as I've always told you guys:  if you have an effective means of recouping your tougher-than-usual sessions, what remains of your easier much-more-usual winning ones:  They're All Profit!

Lastly, fellas, I've just got to say it:  How is it that more players don't play a "variance" game?  I mean, I'm there every week, and all I ever see are the same faces that all look alike, making the same bets over and over again, with no regard to any stats or any meaning at all, just hoping that the shoe will comply with their bets.  Now, don't get me wrong:  I, too, hope the shoe will comply with my bets.  But, the difference is:

1.)  I make the same bet all the time.  I don't look at the past results to figure out my next bet; I look only for my "trigger", and then I'll bet.

2.)  I have an answer, the correct answer, when my bets lose.  Knowing what to do when you're losing is the answer to any or all of your difficulties at this game, because, frankly, if you have the correct answer (yes, the answer IS variance play) then those problems are both short-lived and easily eradicated.

So why doesn't everybody play a variance game?  I just don't get it...is it because they would all simply rather GAMBLE with their money?  Witness the fella to my right on Thursday night's session:  He buys in for about a thousand dollars (I wasn't watching that closely to be sure...but a nice-enough fella, we were talking for a bit), and he couldn't lose a hand.  He must've won a thousand bucks in a quarter of a shoe.  So he says goodbye and leaves, smart move, nothing wrong with that.  But, now about 15 minutes later, back he comes, chips in hand, but now, he couldn't win a hand.  He lost back at least $1500 bucks...also in but a quarter-shoe.  Wham bam...he went from a nice winner to a garbage loser, in one fell swoop.  Now, what was he thinking?  Did he think he'd never lose a hand, because after he won and left, and when he came back, he was betting as big or even bigger than he was before.  Did he think he'd never lose a hand?  If he were playing a variance game, and given that he won almost every bet he'd made earlier, when he played again he would have adjusted his bets after such a positive variance, and he'd have lost at his minimum bet rather than his highest, or, heaven forbid, he might have even "no-betted" (read: sat out some hands) for a spell.

I just don't understand why more players do nothing and, worse, know nothing about variance.  Me?  I could not nor would not put a dollar onto the table without my variance stats at hand.  How the heck else am I supposed to know how much to bet?

[gr8player]

And again, for some reason, this thread was "locked".  Sorry 'bout that....if it's something that I'm doing to cause it to be locked, I can assure you that I am not aware of it.  Anyhow, it is now unlocked, as, IMHO, all threads should be, so that we can freely share our opinions.

[georgebac]

Great Job gr8plyer,

What's  your variance bets. What do you look for before you make a bet.
Show me examples of banker and player on paper please. Can you lay it out
On baccarat score card your bac results. Also do you bet after a tie HAND.
Thank you

[Jimske]

Gr8 wrote:

So why doesn't everybody play a variance game?  I just don't get it...is it because they would all simply rather GAMBLE with their money?

Maybe I don't get it?  Though I recognize that losing three shoes in a row doesn't happen that often and therefore one might raise or lower base bets based on this it still is basically an up as you lose down as you win progression, no?  So you're using a shoe or a session to "trigger" the progression.  One could do the same within a shoe based on this variance.

I don't see why it's just "simply" "gambling" if one doesn't do this.

Don't take it the wrong way.  I'm not objecting to the tactic.  In fact I posted a method whereby I used the same kind of inter and intra progression betting every hand in a shoe and achieved a 3.86 unit net win on over 150 live shoe test.  About 5500 bets I believe.