Baccarat will do 1 of 4 things that can not be debated or denied. I consider a run to be 4 or more so with that said.
Baccarat Can:
1) Run
2) Chop
3) Sequence of Two's
4) Three & Break
The reason I mentioned the above is because it doesn't matter what system, style, or edge you use. If it doesn't include what's chiseled in stone! ie (The Basic Facts) How can you expect to follow a shoe and predict the up coming hands.
People who call this a guessing game simply have not played enough. To them it is a guess but to the skilled and very observant it's a challenge of the mind.
The Million Dollar Question$$$$$
In general when I would Study the Run, Chop, Two's and 3 & Break.
I found out that Chop would happen the most, Then Two's, 3 & Break and then the run. This still holds true for a hand shuffled shoe. However in general it's doesn't hold up as a true fact with the machine shuffle.
Why? My opinion after playing game after game, studying the game, and talking to highly respected people in the industry. The casino can and will manipulate the shuffle.
That's ok because they set themselves up for failure and make the game almost full Proof if your observant enough to find the holes in there mistakes.
I digress, Back to the Million Dollar Question? How strong will 1 of the 4 basic facts be, you may or may not know but the wise thing to do is to always follow it.
Here is a Bag of Gold Knowledge at the end of the Rainbow!!!!!
When you are playing Shoe after Shoe you will notice certain things that happen time after time. We use the Basic 4 Facts that should happen time after time.
1) Your thought process should always be what is happening and how strong is it.
2) What is not happening, or is barely happening which usually happens and how weak is it.
You can find some very strong wagers based on this thought process.
Hello Wewin2222,
Thank you for your good post.
But I still believe, the outcome will always be 50/50 minus the house advantage.
When to enter and when to stop depend on the risk each individual is willing to take.
Anyway, I still find baccarat a hard game to crack as far as I am concern.
I am still learning despite having played the game 6 to 8 hours per day,6 days a week for over 10 years now.
Regards
chef
Chef, It's great to here that we have some players with real experience on here playing day in and day out. I like to move around from casino to casino these days, How about you?
Also Chef we should always continue to learn. Although I play day in and day out minus the time I put in to study the game. I am not to proud to learn from someone playing there very first shoe.....
Confession:
To whom it may concern or that may be interested; I have a confession to make. I know what I know about this game we call Baccarat by JESUS CHRIST and Him alone. Through Prayer, Blood, Sweat, and Tears I have learned to be a consistent winner and I thank God for it.
O:-)
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 21, 2015, 04:48:21 AM
The Million Dollar Question$$$$$
In general when I would Study the Run, Chop, Two's and 3 & Break.
I found out that Chop would happen the most, Then Two's, 3 & Break and then the run. This still holds true for a hand shuffled shoe. However in general it's doesn't hold up as a true fact with the machine shuffle.
Why? My opinion after playing game after game, studying the game, and talking to highly respected people in the industry. The casino can and will manipulate the shuffle.
That's ok because they set themselves up for failure and make the game almost full Proof if your observant enough to find the holes in there mistakes.
I digress, Back to the Million Dollar Question? How strong will 1 of the 4 basic facts be, you may or may not know but the wise thing to do is to always follow it.
So are you implying that the game should be easily beatable due to its statistical features and therefore casinos had to manipulate the playing shoes rather than cancelling the game?
What about the high stakes rooms where most money are wagered (and won by casinos) on hand shuffled shoes?
Further, if after your experiments you've found that chops > doubles > 3 and breaks > runs and hence that the game should be easily beatable and that casino's industry knows that, do you think that their best countermeasure is to act in a reverse mood, that is producing shoes where 1<2<3<runs will predominate?
For example, it's mathematically certain that itlr the sequence BBBPB will be more present than the counterpart BBBPP, so their wisest move should be to form shoes producing more BBBPP patterns than BBBPB?
Notice that I'm not 100% certain that shuffle machines will produce the very same outcomes than pc or hand made shoes, but I really wonder if a game considered perfectly unbeatable (besides some side bets) by the most leading gambling experts, suddendly becomes an easy beatable one. Well, bac is the second most profitable game in the world after slots.
For casinos.
as.
AsymBacGuy- We all know certain things and some are the same and some different. I know this.....I make money playing Baccarat on a regular bases. If other people do I am happy for them but if they don't I can't help that.
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 22, 2015, 01:19:01 AM
AsymBacGuy- We all know certain things and some are the same and some different. I know this.....I make money playing Baccarat on a regular bases. If other people do I am happy for them but if they don't I can't help that.
I've sayed you wrote something good in your deleted post, so don't take my questions as denigrating or whatever.
Still you haven't answered to my questions.
I'll try again.
How (not why) casinos would alter the outcomes by the use of shuffle machines?
I immodestly think to know almost every trend tracking a shoe produces, along with its average frequency per shoe, per every 10 shoe, per 100 shoes, in the very long run, so I'm just curious to hear from you. I dissected the 70 average decisions per shoe by every angle, I calculated the asymmetricity factor and the average card distribution and hundreds of other features, so I'm not going to be persuaded by reading non specific arguments.
Thanks!
as.
Fair enough we will talk later.
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 22, 2015, 01:19:01 AM
AsymBacGuy- We all know certain things and some are the same and some different. I know this.....I make money playing Baccarat on a regular bases. If other people do I am happy for them but if they don't I can't help that.
YOu are not the only person here that has played thousands of shoes for years. But you are the only guy here who has started to explain a method of play and then abandoned it without explanation. That makes you just another poser in my book! So why are you here now? Just tooting your own horn?
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 22, 2015, 02:32:16 AM
I've sayed you wrote something good in your deleted post, so don't take my questions as denigrating or whatever.
Still you haven't answered to my questions.
I'll try again.
Look who is calling the kettle black!!!! Mr. analyzed a million shoes to examine the rare bet cannot even say hjow many rare bets one might witness per x number of decisions or what the WR is on such bets. Oh right . .. I forgot we got to buy the book - when it comes out. :))
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 21, 2015, 10:17:05 PM
So are you implying that the game should be easily beatable due to its statistical features and therefore casinos had to manipulate the playing shoes rather than cancelling the game?
What about the high stakes rooms where most money are wagered (and won by casinos) on hand shuffled shoes?
Further, if after your experiments you've found that chops > doubles > 3 and breaks > runs and hence that the game should be easily beatable and that casino's industry knows that, do you think that their best countermeasure is to act in a reverse mood, that is producing shoes where 1<2<3<runs will predominate?
For example, it's mathematically certain that itlr the sequence BBBPB will be more present than the counterpart BBBPP, so their wisest move should be to form shoes producing more BBBPP patterns than BBBPB?
Notice that I'm not 100% certain that shuffle machines will produce the very same outcomes than pc or hand made shoes, but I really wonder if a game considered perfectly unbeatable (besides some side bets) by the most leading gambling experts, suddendly becomes an easy beatable one. Well, bac is the second most profitable game in the world after slots.
For casinos.
as.
LMAO! No, I'm not going to criticize you on this! Exactly right.
I think it is possible for casinos to track their P&L real time and bias the shuffles from easy to difficult. It pays for them to make easy shuffles at times to attract players and make sure they have a good time when their P&L is tracking above forecast, right?
As players do, they know trickier and more difficult sequences vs. easy ones.
I play @ SBObet online with live dealer, held by First Cagayan PHI. They used pre-shuffled card and then hand shuffle by the dealer before going into the shoe. Sometime they even used the same deck, hand shuffle only. But only for one or two times max.
I believe Casino wouldn't have to manipulate the result. First, they know the house always win. Second, even if some pattern/bias appear in the shoe, there is still Gambler Fallacy. Not everyone will see thing the same.
But, I understand there are some thing happened beyond my understanding. Maybe I haven't seen much in this bacc world. Where many impossible things happened a lot.
Just sharing the experience.
I also have talked to a friend who used to work in the online casino. He said that they DO make an arrangement so that some player WILL lose because they make it that way. They have the prog that could do that.
It make me think to use 2 player style of play. If one is suffering several LIAR, the other simply reverse the BS with larger unit.
Because in my experience, I have considered to change my BS when I'm facing several LIAR. But the fear of "How if the next one is the right ones?" always show up.
Yes indeed some stated that this is a game of mind, not technique, not edges, not math, no statistic etc.
Or maybe this is just a game of luck? :cheer:
Funny how I often win when play paper bet, but lose if play with real money. :stress:
Jimske- I think you need to answer your own question, I really don't have time for people who are judge mental and want to attack a person reputation. Frankly life is just to short to deal with people like that.
Wewin2222
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 23, 2015, 12:32:29 PM
Jimske- I think you need to answer your own question,
What question is that? The "Why are you here one?" I already answered it iniitially - To toot your own own.
QuoteI really don't have time for people who are judge mental and want to attack a person reputation. Frankly life is just to short to deal with people like that.
Wewin2222
You sure had plenty of time to lead people in a wild goose chase! I've seen similar methods where people have transposed the P B and make trend bets on same so I didn't bother to pay much attention except to recognize from the get go that you were a poser who would soon bail so I copied the stuff for the group.. But a lot of guys did. You came in with a promise and claim then bailed out. Some may not want to ruffle your feathers thinking you have something to offer but I know better.
FACTS?. The nonsense about casino orchestrated cheating through shuffle machines is just that! One can believe they have the ability or not but your "theory" is based on no hand shuffles. So what casinos do you or anyone go to that doesn't do at least one hand shuffle after the cards come out of the shuffler?
Hello? Anybody home?
J
I saw an awesome block of 3's BBB PPP BBB PPP... Working on it.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 23, 2015, 06:25:30 PM
I saw an awesome block of 3's BBB PPP BBB PPP... Working on it.
Play often enough and you'll see it all. I've seen 3's repeat 4 times. 5's too. Seen 23 P IAR; seen a 17 and an 18 IAR P and B respectively in one shoe! The weirdest one I got to say is I seen the 1-2 pattern hit about 14 times IAR once in AC.
Last night the last 15 hands were PB PB PB PB PB PB PB TIE. Nice 2x2 and a tie to end the shoe.....
These are all very juicy. Maybe we need to carry along a baccarat scrapbook/ journal.
Quote from: Garfield on December 22, 2015, 03:45:28 AM
I also have talked to a friend who used to work in the online casino. He said that they DO make an arrangement so that some player WILL lose because they make it that way. They have the prog that could do that.
Garfield,
Did your friend explain just how they manipulated a live dealer game so that a particular player would lose?
AD
Who believes a side can take control and show power?
What about hands following natural 8's and 9's?
Regular 8's and 9's?
Power side being checked by ties?
Quote from: ADulay on December 24, 2015, 02:39:32 AM
Garfield,
Did your friend explain just how they manipulated a live dealer game so that a particular player would lose?
AD
They said they have some kind of program. It is an online casino based in Cambodia / Myanmar if I may recall it. Don't know the detail, but worth to consider.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 24, 2015, 03:13:26 AMWhat about hands following natural 8's and 9's?
Regular 8's and 9's.
Removing 8's and 9's supposedly improves the possibility for Player to win the next hand, but not by any significant amount.
Especially after only one hand.
Quote from: Eight Iron on December 25, 2015, 01:26:22 PM
Removing 8's and 9's supposedly improves the possibility for Player to win the next hand, but not by any significant amount.
Especially after only one hand.
That's correct. In fact 8s and 9s are just one class of cards helping B side (or better sayed, more damaging P chance), so the 8s-9s/other cards ratio won't help a lot.
For example, a deck particularly rich of 8s and 9s along with a lot of zero value cards does help the P side bettors for two reasons:
1- there will be more natural points, so reducing the asymmetrical hands number mathematically favoring the banker.
2- while a P hand won by a natural is 1-1 payed, a B hand won by a natural is 0.95-1 payed.
So whenever a deck is particularly rich of 8s-9s and zero value cards the theorical less disadvantaged move is to bet the P chance. A real nightmare for banker lovers.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 25, 2015, 09:44:24 PM
That's correct. In fact 8s and 9s are just one class of cards helping B side ....
For example, a deck particularly rich of 8s and 9s along with a lot of zero value cards does help the P side bettors for two reasons:
........
So whenever a deck is particularly rich of 8s-9s and zero value cards the theorical less disadvantaged move is to bet the P chance. A real nightmare for banker lovers.
That seemed contradictory at first, since you first agree that removing the 8's, 9's benefits the P side, but add that a shoe that is particularly rich in 8's and 9's, could also help the P side.
According toe A.P. Heat, when the 8 or 9 is dealt as the first or third card of the hand, Player has the advantage.
When Banker is dealt the 8 or the 9 as the second or fourth card, Banker has the advantage.
If the bettor knows the first card will be a 9, he has a 21.528% advantage.
If he knows the second card will be a 9, he has a 20.641% advantage.
Those percentages seem to favor Player in an, 8,9 rich situation.
http://apheat.net/2012/08/13/baccarat-the-known-card/
Quote from: Eight Iron on December 26, 2015, 02:42:30 PM
That seemed contradictory at first, since you first agree that removing the 8's, 9's benefits the P side, but add that a shoe that is particularly rich in 8's and 9's, could also help the P side.
According toe A.P. Heat, when the 8 or 9 is dealt as the first or third card of the hand, Player has the advantage.
When Banker is dealt the 8 or the 9 as the second or fourth card, Banker has the advantage.
If the bettor knows the first card will be a 9, he has a 21.528% advantage.
If he knows the second card will be a 9, he has a 20.641% advantage.
Those percentages seem to favor Player in an, 8,9 rich situation.
http://apheat.net/2012/08/13/baccarat-the-known-card/
It seems contradictory because to get a sort of advantage we need to count ALL the cards, not just two ranks.
The known card is a different matter I've already talked about in my blog.
For example, a deck very rich of 8s and 9s with no zero value cards will raise the winning B/P probability for both the reduced naturals apparition and the enhanced probability to get asymmetrical hands where 8s and 9s more often than not damage the Player two-card drawing point.
To get a better idea I suggest to take a glance at this link
http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/calculator/
Here anyone can manipulate the deck at will, nonetheless the opportunities to get a kind of advantage are so rare and so unlikely that this should be done just for curiosity purposes.
as.
Quote from: Wewin2222 on December 21, 2015, 04:16:26 AM
Baccarat will do 1 of 4 things that can not be debated or denied. I consider a run to be 4 or more so with that said.
Baccarat Can:
1) Run
2) Chop
3) Sequence of Two's
4) Three & Break
This I DENY. And you (wewin222) can not debate it.
Baccarat can only do TWO (2) things. That's it.
1.) It can Single x-o-x-o-x-o
2.) It can repeat xx-ooo-xxxx-ooooo-xxxxxx-oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
That's it.
Sequence of 2's? is nothing more than consecutive repeating events. If you are going to include repeating 2's, then by definition you can't leave out the 2-1-2-1-2-1-2-1 pattern, or the 3by3 pattern or any pattern of any combination of events. Strip it all down to the basics and there are only TWO possibilites. Will this decision single? or will this decision repeat?
Three and break? wth is that? it's a streak of three. A repeated event. No different than a streak of 9 or 19. Or excuse me, it's no different than a four and break, or a nine and break, or a nineteen and break.
HBS
Quote from: HunchBacShrimp on January 07, 2016, 11:31:40 PM
This I DENY. And you (wewin222) can not debate it.
Baccarat can only do TWO (2) things. That's it.
1.) It can Single x-o-x-o-x-o
2.) It can repeat xx-ooo-xxxx-ooooo-xxxxxx-oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
That's it.
HBS
Yes. Agreed. The next result could only be repeat or opposite. That's all.