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[alrelax]

JIMSKE wrote:

"People I know of have a "benchmark" of some sort.  A fixed mechanical way of playing from which they deviate based on particulars (trend, bias, pattern, etc.) occurring in the game.  Others will play a strict rule based process.  But either way the winning formula IMO, is betting and MM.  I think this is true even for those who "think" they can predict future outcome." (Correct, Jimske)

Money Management System is a major key to the success of a gambler.  Period.  With that out there, your Money Management System has to govern how and what you do with your win money, it also has to dictate when, how and the division of the money you have won, if you did win at a certain point.  Finally, the system has to allow you to stay and continue winning, or it has to show you that you lost a certain part of the winning and you have to stop.  The system also has to have definitive amounts or percentages that you lock up—use as your continued buy-in stack and have a criteria that you will automatically use to set-aside your continued buy-in, your locked up winnings and a reserve amount for a second go around or later buy-in, etc.  You have to rock-solid abide by it and never deviate from it.  The proper system will allow you and guarantee you to leave a winner if you won and as well, curtail or keep your losses to a smaller certain amount that should be your risk money, etc.  Without a money management system you will most likely doom yourself and fall prey to everything the casino will offer you, experienced player or not.  With a money management system that you do not follow, you will also probably only doom yourself with your ignorance and unacceptability as to what will happen to your buy-in, win money and or available funds at the table while you continue to play. 



GIZMO wrote:

"You can take that knowable middle of a trend and speculate on it. Now that does not mean that you have acquired a gift of knowing when the end comes. It does one thing for you though. You can't guess on a trend to start on the next spin as with the same degree of accuracy as betting for an existing trend to continue."  (Yes, correct Mark)

That is so accurate, it is chilling in a Stephen King kind of 'real' way.  But, if you cannot recognize that there are certainly 'identifiable events' in baccarat, you need to give up playing.  There is.  It is not an exact science that can consistently produce the same results after certain events, but there is most certainly numerous 'identifiable events' that a player could take advantage of to wager with, or as Mark said—the upcoming 'end' or anything else the player can profit from. 

This also has to be taken a step further, which is 'sectioning and turning points' that certainly do exist in baccarat.  Those 'sections and turing points' I am referring to--will contain the 'middles' that Mark has wrote about.  Although, most on here and other message boards will fight until their deaths, never admitting it or recognizing it---the sections and turning points are so apparent in almost every shoe—the player that refuses to use those are only setting themselves up to fail with 'following' what was or what did not come out yet, etc.  I have explained, showed in marked up actual bac shoe cards, etc., what sections and turning points are.  They will help you identify what and where you are at within a shoe.  Properly done, they may just put you in the correct frame-of-mind to catch many 'middles' of an opportunistic event as Mark defined.  They do exist in most every shoe of bac, you just have to be able to get away from that baccarat player mentality of, 'so and so' has to happen, because 'such and such' already happened, way of wagering.

Ref M.M.S.  GIZMO wrote:

"I have always said that you need to be aware of the playing conditions. That does not mean the observance of trends or patterns as the bases for your MM. You need to be aware of the effectiveness in the current session that you are participating in. There can be three primary states or conditions that are real information to you. Your guesses can be real good and you are in a win streak. They can be moderate and you are breaking even after all that effort. They can be real bad and you are getting killed in your bankroll. You must know that betting on trends or patterns is nothing more than speculation based on guessing. You must play the effectiveness game in order to make gambling a success. Most people that know this devise money management methods that adapt to the conditions. I'm not suggesting progressions either. Why would anyone use a negative progression if they were in a known bad streak?"

If you read my above two responses, they kind of address and comment on what Mark pointed out here.  You decision making process based on 'something', as well as the money management system end of it which is your friend.   It is also your guidance, security guard, protector and let me throw in there, your wizard as well.  You have to cooperate with it is the only catch and not fight it, argue with it or divorce it.  You have to allow it to govern you and your playing time and cashing out the win as it happens.  Not getting a huge head and feel as though your ship finally came in and you will clean out the dealer's rack, because if you do—you just poured gasoline all over yourself, your chip stack and your available funds and threw a match off to the side---the damage is coming and will come—each and every time.  Period.


JIMSKE wrote:

"Historical data - whether we call them sleepers, patterns, trends; whether they are in the middle end or  . . . we need this to develop the next element which is  . . .

Identification - looking at historical data and speculating that some future outcome may happen; call it guessing, educated guessing, whatever but this certain condition(s) we see often and can say what that condition(s) is.

Prediction - because now we are making a bet that above certain historical data has been identified and we make a bet knowing that it will have a positive outcome.

Any other is just a feeling or, well, a guess.  Maybe some are better guessers than others.  Maybe it's not just a guess but an unexplicable "6th sense."     (Correct yes, subject to one's interpretations and experiences, IMO)

Historical—Identification—Prediction.   Etc., etc., and so on and so forth.  There most certainly are elements of 'sectioning and turning points' to this game that also includes identifiable events.  Explore them, learn them, identify them, be familiar with them, have a game wagering mentality that will allow yourself to bet with the shoe presentments rather than a mechanical pre-set pre-scheduled event that you are going to wager on because something previously came out, etc.  There is a difference and it is a huge difference. 

[Gizmotron]

Here it is. This happens from time to time and it is the most powerful opportunity in gambling. You can chose to recognize it or you can chose to ignore it. It happens in Baccarat, Blackjack, Craps, and Roulette. I chose to play Roulette because it happens far more often.

What I'm going to show you is the global effect of a swarm of sleeping dozens. It takes a skilled expert at speculating on such a massive grab from the casino. Look below at the "0" dozen, followed by the "A" column dozen, and finally the "1" column dozen.

That comes to approximately 34 wins with only 3 losses in the hands of a skilled expert. The net result of that is +28. If the bets were $50 per dozen then the result would be $1,400. All of that from just following one very good trend. Now that is proof. It makes the experts that say it does not help or work look like they need more education. Some people would say that I just had their lunch. BTW, I can go on all day with examples of the proof. But even more disarming is that almost everyone here can provide the same proof as well. All they need to do is chart it and pull out the example.

| 1  2  3 | A  B  C | 0  3  6 | P |
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
| X       |       X |    X    | P | -- 3
|       X | X       |       X |   | -- 34
|       X | X       |       X |   | -- 34
|       X |       X |    X    |   | -- 30
|    X    | X       |       X |   | -- 22
|       X |       X |    X    |   | -- 30
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
|    X    |       X |       X |   | -- 21
| X       |    X    |    X    |   | -- 8
|       X |       X |    X    |   | -- 30
| X       |       X |       X | P | -- 6
|       X |    X    |    X    |   | -- 29
|       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
| X       |    X    |       X | P | -- 5
| X       |    X    |       X | P | -- 5
| X       |       X |    X    | P | -- 12
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
| X       |       X | X       |   | -- 9
| X       |    X    | X       | P | -- 2
|    X    |       X |       X | P | -- 18
|       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
| X       |       X |       X | P | -- 6
| X       |       X |    X    | P | -- 12
|       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 24
|    X    |       X |       X |   | -- 21
|       X |       X |    X    |   | -- 30
|    X    |    X    |       X |   | -- 20
|    X    | X       | X       |   | -- 13
|    X    |    X    |       X | P | -- 17
|    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
|    X    |    X    | X       |   | -- 14
|    X    |    X    |       X | P | -- 17
|    X    |       X |       X |   | -- 21
|    X    | X       |    X    |   | -- 16
|    X    |    X    |       X | P | -- 17
| X       | X       | X       | P | -- 1
|    X    |       X |       X | P | -- 18
|       X |       X | X       | P | -- 27
|    X    | X       |       X |   | -- 22
|-------------------| X       | P | -- 38

There is no way that you can know when these start or that you will know how long they will last. You just jump into them to find out if you actually are in one. One thing is for certain though. If you don't jump in then you will miss out. So you must play a game where you can live with losing bets. If you can't figure out how to stay close to even then perhaps gambling is not your cup of Grog.