08 Baccarat Talk

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Offline Sputnik

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Baccarat Talk
« on: June 11, 2019, 01:38:23 pm »
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  • Asymbacguy post a strategy and I cannot forget about it.
    But I see the approach with different observations.

    I ask my self how many times does singles and series of two-strike before a series of three strikes.
    Also how many times does a series of two and a series of three strikes before a series of four?

    The match and probability are the same for both.
    Equilibrium and imbalance/balance and the figures of the law of series.

    Singles has the value of 1
    Series of two has the value of 0
    Series of three has the value of 1
    Series of four has the value of 2
    Series of five has the value of 3
    And so it continues...

    Series of two has the value of 1
    Series of three has the value of 0
    Series of four has the value of 1
    Series of five has the value of 2
    Series of six has the value of 3
    And so it continues...

    Now if you want to experiment you can make an observation list where you write down how many times singles and series of two-strike before a series of three.
    Same for series of two and series of three against series of four.

    This would even work using a series of three and a series of four versus a series of five.
    Same math and probability.

    The strike ratio is very high.
    I been testing +2 units or break even with great success.
    Don't forget that you get 83% reversals after a negative result flat betting.

    Cheers




    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #1 on: June 11, 2019, 04:22:34 pm »
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  • Here is a short sample - 20 session - flat betting

    +20 units
    -4 units
    9 reversals

    +0
    +0
    +0
    +2
    +0
    +2
    +0
    -4
    +2
    +2
    +0
    +2
    +2
    +2
    +2
    +2
    +2
    +0
    +0
    +0




    Online AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #2 on: June 11, 2019, 10:55:48 pm »
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  • Hi Sputnik!

    What exactly do you mean for "reversal"?

    as.
    Next to edge sorting it's me

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #3 on: June 12, 2019, 07:09:47 am »
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  • Koetsch simulated the statistical expectation for even money with 100 placed bets session samples for 600 times, total 60.000 placed bets with 1.7% house edge.
    The following pictures show the stats and the expectation for each session.
    1700 session or 17% out of 60.000 placed bets did not have a back to back result during 100 placed bets session, reversal.
    43.000 played 100 placed bets session had at least one reversal during the session, back to back results, break even.

    I implement this with my testing.
    Each time a session starts with a negative or I get one negative during the session without reaching my win target.
    Then I know that the majority of times I will get back to back results and break even.

    Cheers

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #4 on: June 12, 2019, 01:40:22 pm »
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  • The length of the sequence with two dominant events following a certain amount of strength.
    This is how the sequences look with the natural random order TRNG
    100 sequences - short term observation for variance

    2 1 3 4 5 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 9 1 2 11 1 2 5 2 9 2 1 21 3 1 13 8 14 1 10 1 1 3 4 3 1 1 3 1 4 5 1 1 6 2 2 2 2 7
    3 5 3 12 2 1 2 6 12 2 6 4 5 4 5 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 4 2 2 2 6 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 4 2 20 5 10 3 1 1 9 13 6 15 2 4 7 1

    Now if we put them into the order we will find the median value where the sequence has 50/50 likelihood going into less or more.
    When I use this with singles versus series I got the value of two singles equal one series of three and both had 50/50 likelihood to happen once.

    Now with this example, we are measuring both singles and series of two versus series of three and the median value is different, it reaches 3.

    1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ( 3 ) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 20 21

    Cheers


    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #5 on: June 13, 2019, 03:46:27 pm »
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  • Sputnik, what constitutes a session?  IOW, how many spins or games?  Have you determined or estimated what the win % is?

    Also, from what I can understand of this method you described is not dissimilar to playing a trend.  The trend being wait for certain series to complete and then making bets using them as "turning point." 

    Thanks.

    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Baccarat Talk
    « Reply #6 on: June 14, 2019, 01:36:59 pm »
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  •  I get back to you about this - do some extensive sports betting this weekend - I am up +220 Euro and aim for +300 for this month.

     Cheers