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[alrelax]

Balancing Win to Exploit

There are no continuing wagers that will constantly win, no matter how sporadic or how careful you are on the triggers, the exact same ones will not come about in an exploitable, reoccurring pattern that almost everyone is convinced or searching for.  Period.  Get over it and save yourself lots of time and trouble and money. 

To exploit something that is in the process of being presented, you MUST be of a neutral and a calm frame-of-mind.  And I mean completely oblivious to your past losses as well as past wins, why those happened or failed to happen.  Because if you are, all you are doing to yourself is adding huge amounts of bias and clouding your vision in order to be able to capitalize on a current Section of presentments.

For everyone's information, there is NO money management method that will allow you to win or recover losses, NONE-ZERO-ZIP-NADDA-ZILCH, Not a single one.  Yes, there are money management methods that will allow you to win a few units and not lose your buy-in.  But those very same ones, if you employ them, will only allow you to win a few units (if you do win) and lose whatever exact amount you set to stop your attempt to win at.  PERIOD.  And nothing else.  Strictly using those will never allow you to win large amounts of money. 

With that said, move on.  There is most certainly a "Key Attempt", or 'Try', etc., in Bac wagering for the so-called Exploit.  If you strike it, then you must employ a positive progression to follow the Exploit.  If you do not, you WILL NOT be exploiting anything except your upcoming loss of one or two wins and building your frustration and loss level. 

You have to have Value--Respect & Realization in your play while you are attempting to exploit something.  Otherwise, you WILL NOT be able to.  The ability to continue on the exploit will be dependent upon those things; Value--Respect & Realization. 

A great example of this very thing is the shoe I posted from the other night, the one with the 10 Bankers and 3 Ties from hand 1, out of the gate!  By the way, that shoe followed the shoe that ended with exactly 10 chop-chops.  A first for me in over 40 years of playing this game. 

What happened when those 10 Bankers came out of the gate?  Well, about half the table won extremely large and half the table lost their entire buy-ins as well as continued buy ins.  Yes, several people were 100% convinced the Player would come around in each hand upcoming.  Of course that took 11 hands to accomplish.  A couple were Martingale approaching it, but quickly reach table max limits and then wiped themselves out.  The winners, valued and respect the realization that they found themselves in.  We doubled, tripled and quadrupled our initials wagers and then pulled down each and every win and locked it up.  We did the same thing on those Chops at the last 10 hands of the shoe just before as well. 

What a great example of what I write about frequently.  What you win with in one Section or one shoe, will be the exact cause of your upcoming loss. 

Flat betting money wagers are the biggest joke of them all as well.  The road to nowhere.  The road to being grinded down.  That is what flat-betting is. 

And test all you want.  Means nothing at the live B&M bac tables.  The conclusion will only confuse you of fallacies or the opposite of the truth anyway.  Because bac shoes do not and cannot replicate each other, shoe after shoe.  And in my opinion, with the very best, conservative and ultra-reliance on variance, being able to deploy it precisely will get you maybe even or a tad bit better than your buy-in.

Believing your testing, you would be one of those people that either sat out and watched those 10 Bankers and those 10 Chops and kept saying, it could not be happening or it will cut with the next hand dealt.  Or you would be flat betting and getting a few correct and a few wrong.

[vigilante]

Sir, I believe this is one of the best article summarized perfectly straight to the point...!! 

[alrelax]

This goes right along with the original piece here:

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/real-world-results-relating-to-understanding-baccarat/msg65894/#msg65894

[alrelax]

Shoe from last night.

[attachimg=1]

Once again and frequently we have found that LOW TIES 0-1-2-3 or (4 ties late in the shoe even) will produce grouping up/clumping and sticking with the presentments whatever the shoe was producing, even if that is weak.  Just LOW TIES is the best indicator of continued presentments.  DOES NOT mean that those presentments will be long streaks or continued chops, just repetitive grouping of whatever the shoe was producing.  Which is evident once again, with the picture I just posted from last night.

Exploiting what was happening.  That is the key trigger.  Not having a set or scheduled key trigger that almost all forum readers and members are searching for.  Good luck, you will never ever find that.  But there are so many other great exploitable key triggers, IMO. 

Also, so many say there is a flow.  A flow of what?  Wishful thinking.  The exploitables and the best wagers are  shoe presentment specific, without being mechanical and scheduled in nature.  Because once again, what you win at in one shoe or even a Section of a shoe, you will lose the same or greater if you continue to follow just that.  Period.  A fact and reality to the 100th degree!

To win with a decent profit, you must employ positive progressions with your wins.  Some type of win Money Management Method as well as be totally conscious of and abide by your own Level & Plateau adherence with wagering, stopping and other actions. 

You must have your buy-in as risk capital.  Listen, it is simple and gambling is no different.  Say you have a retail store.  You buy inventory and it sits and does not sell and produce profit the way you thought.  You invested almost all or all your capital funds to purchase that inventory.  Your expenses, store rent, utilities, phone, advertising, personnel, taxes, permit fees, etc., etc., all are still going to come due.  Each and every one of them and you will not have capital to pay them.  Same as making wrong wagers without a bank roll to draw down from.  No different. 

Your buy-in MUST be risk capital.  And your buy-in must be a portion of your bank roll allowing you numerous times to capitalize and replenish your bank roll.  But do not fall into the rut of over building, false promising yourself riches and EZ living, and so many other things that will outweigh Sections and Turning Points of a few shoes.  That is why positive progression is absolutely mandatory and required.  My 1/3rd, 1/3rd 1/3rd Money Management Method will take care of the rest with all your winning sessions, if you can control yourself with your time played and the application of my Money Management Method. 

Back to the shoe.

We wagered heavy on that 2nd Player on Hand 15, and it was a Natural 9 over a Banker Natural 8. 

We all wagered heavy, most parlayed or even tripled for the 3rd Player on Hand 16.  We cut down on Hand 17 and on Hand 18 we all went extremely heavy.  Some pulled down for Hand 19, but most stayed heavy. 

We had an absolute field day when Hand 29 produced the 4 Players with three of them being naturals.  Every Banker hand following that, won by only 1 point except for the 2 naturals.  The next 5 Players ,every 3rd card increased the Player count to a total of 8 or 9, 4 times out of the 5 hands.  Almost every hand for the Players side started with a 1 or a 2 and their third card was a 6 or a 7, while the Bankers had a 7 a couple of times or else a zero and flopped a face card or a 5 or less, even a 6. 

We also caught plenty of the 1s and 2s, strictly based on the Low Ties causing what it normally does, as well as each Section never having greater than 2 chops.  We do not care or take into consideration what can or might or has happened in the past.  If you do, you will NOT be playing/wagering with the presentments as they are happening and simply, being presented.

[alrelax]

Once Again!  This is the way to play Baccarat.  Watch for the real presentment triggers, not the statistical ones that mean nothing at the table, for example the no ties or low ties, I write about so frequently.  IMO, not much can hold a light to that, clumps, groups, repeats itself and sticks to whatever pattern is being produced.  A bunch of us hit this shoe hard and stay with 2 and 3 parlays and even played the cuts.  There were no ties and not a tie until the 58th hand if I recall, maybe 59.  Forget statistics and what is supposed to happen, PLAY THE PRESENTMENTS THE SHOE IS PRODUCING.  PERIOD!


I wrote the other week........."Once again and frequently we have found that LOW TIES 0-1-2-3 or (4 ties late in the shoe even) will produce grouping up/clumping and sticking with the presentments whatever the shoe was producing, even if that is weak.  Just LOW TIES is the best indicator of continued presentments.  DOES NOT mean that those presentments will be long streaks or continued chops, just repetitive grouping of whatever the shoe was producing."

The 3rd, 5th and 6th lines of the Bead Plate gave us all a good 11 or 12 wins.  2 or 3 positive progressions, pull down and start once again with twice the base unit, than quadrupled for the second wager and 8x's for the third.  Then pull down.  That is the positive progression we followed. 

[attachimg=1]

[Garfield]

On the 1st shoe, why you stay on player? The previous showed that Player Natural cut.... What's the presentments if you still could recall it?

[alrelax]

The match between observations and expectations is relative, do not think it is not.  100% relative to be successful in the game of baccarat. 

[Garfield]

Okay...but tbh I still don't understand why you wagered heavy on thr 2nd player in hand #15....

[alrelax]

Okay...but tbh I still don't understand why you wagered heavy on thr 2nd player in hand #15....

I want to say the last three Banks prior to those players clumping up, the bank just squeezed by with one or two or the third card reduced the players. And coupled with the low ties we were expecting something to happen. And that's what we were counting on.

[Garfield]

I see...thanks a lot for the explanation..... I could relate to that...

[Babu]

Counting on? Every time I count on something to happen it never does.