Beating Baccarat

[alrelax]

Beating baccarat takes experience, knowing what losses and wins are, being in touch with yourself and reality among lots of other things.  If you think it is all numbers and theoretical/mathematical replication at the table, you are extremely misguided, IMO. 

Here are some highlights as to what helps me and what I believe can allow certain players to really excel at the game:

I put this together after an in depth all night discussion with my buddy H-Money and another player. 

The Essential 8:

Plan
Willpower-Patience
Recognize your plateaus/levels
Money Management ***
Progressions
Totally forget comps & perks
Enjoy & be content with what you get or happens
Don't force to be outside your zone

*** = (Lots of people are confused as to what Money Management really means or is.  I have written some of my thoughts on this and I do not believe it should be used to give you false hope for wagering strength.  IMO and experience, it works great if you divide it up into different departments that will allow you to replenish buy in money, set aside other win money for progression wagering and yet, other win money for side bets) 

Self-Sabotage:

Don't realize but it happens, frequently-openly & clearly all the time at the tables.

If you think you know everything, even half of everything, then you would not have lost all that money you desire to recoup and are attempting to recoup, simple.

Trying to change it up
Out thinking the shoe
Mandating your wagers outside the 'sections and turning points', of the shoe
Failing to realize it you cannot follow what is actually happening with the shoe
Failing to ride a strong shoe/section of the shoe and becoming overwhelmed

The bias/The trend/The variance:

Avoid at all costs.  Plain and simple.

You must avoid the personality and mismatched belief's at all cost.  Seriously, they will keep you down or bring you down faster than anything else when playing.

Do not fall prey to getting drawn in and making it personal.

One thing in baccarat, no one can change the outcome of the hands forthcoming.

Only thing is, that you can get side tracked and not play with a clear mind and the proper concentration because you are attempting to make a point or be egotistic, etc.

Sitting at a computer and running theory or practicing on line is a complete different scenario in a multitude of ways than playing live in a B&M casino.

When you have won a sizable amount, you have to get into the frame of mind and be conscious more of everything happening than you were even during the win period.  That is the only way you can control yourself.

[AsymBacGuy]

Nice post.

I'll comment about "Essential 8".

Plan

Yes, we need a plan to play any game of the universe, but it must be adapted to the actual situations. Even if I'm the second best poker player in the world, I do not want to play Phil Ivey being the only customer there. Or the other 10 or 20 best poker players.
Therefore a preordered plan may not find the proper circumstances and very often efforts made to get the best of it simply don't work.

Willpower-patience

Willpower is everything. Quitting home knowing what could happen and what must happen at the casino is of primary importance. We are not there to hit jackpots, just playing probabilities.
Realizing that most of the collegues at the table will quit as losers could help us. We are long term winners, right?
Most players lose as they are not patient, meaning they love to force probabilities.

Recognize your plateau/levels

Professionals try to win little but steadily per ranges of opportunities.
Profitable opportunities are not around the corner every time.
For a $100 bettor, it's a lot more likely to win $300, $300 and $300 within three different sessions than trying to get $900 in one single session. Especially when we are on the losing side.

Money management

The less the money we bring in at the table, the better should be the efforts to defend it.
   

Progressions

The only way to win at EV- games is setting up a method capable to get more winning hands than losing hands, period.
Progressions just accelerate a possible advantage OR a sure disadvantage.


Totally forget comps and perks

It depends.
If comps are so high or certain deals are made with the casino, we have two ways of winning: winning and just breaking even.
Nobody is going to play with the aim to break even. Sometimes he/she should.

Enjoy and be content with what you get or happens

The best section of the 8.

An experienced player knows that every kind of shoe could happen right there. If we are losing small after a "terrible" shoe was dealt we should be happy. If we win we should be happy no matter how much we are winning. Same about breaking even as we are entitled to lose.
Being happy help us to put aside the dangerous world of betting when angry.
I do not know a single player quitting the table as winner when playing angrily.
It's a scientifically proven fact that angriness leads to worse decisions.

Don't force to be outside your zone

If our plan dictates to bet from $20 to $60 and we've found out we're wagering $100 in the effort to recoup or to win more, we are just gambling.
It's true that a $100 winning bet will balance in just one shot five previous $20 losing wagers, yet we should wonder why we had lost such five bets, meaning we must win five bets back. And naturally we should think that a $100 losing bet will double in one shot our previous diluted losses. Now what are we going to bet next hand?

as. 

[Jimske]

Not much to disagree with.

I will add a comment about MM and progressions.  I rarely lose a session anymore.  But when I do it's a small loss.  This is because when losing I reduce my bet size to avoid going too deep in the hole.  It's also because I am willing to quit loser!  We should all know what dollar amount that is.  Getting back to even or an acceptable loss is good enough.  But whatever we do to reduce losses also has a negative effect on our winning side. 

Last time out W56 L35.  Upon reviewing the games later I see I could have won way more than I did due to some MM reductions during early play IF I had escalated without MM.  Can't have it both ways.   

J

[alrelax]

Nice post.

I'll comment about "Essential 8".

(Asym, I will comment on your responses with underlining my responses)

Plan

Yes, we need a plan to play any game of the universe, but it must be adapted to the actual situations. Even if I'm the second best poker player in the world, I do not want to play Phil Ivey being the only customer there. Or the other 10 or 20 best poker players.
Therefore a preordered plan may not find the proper circumstances and very often efforts made to get the best of it simply don't work.

(I can't stress enough how important this single item really is guys!  Super important.  Yes, it is extremely difficult to always stick with it and even more so when others are winning and losing.  When other win, especially reinforcing things you believe in or let's just say 'see', 'predict', or believe in, with the events and presentment of the current shoe, it is even more so difficult.  When they lose it gives you a false positive sense of strength as well as, when they win, you will subconsciously be like, hey I should have wagered and I knew so.  Then you go at wagering without the clear and complete neutrality of thought, you really do need.) 

Willpower-patience

Willpower is everything. Quitting home knowing what could happen and what must happen at the casino is of primary importance. We are not there to hit jackpots, just playing probabilities.
Realizing that most of the collegues at the table will quit as losers could help us. We are long term winners, right?
Most players lose as they are not patient, meaning they love to force probabilities.

(Believe if you keep playing you can overcome the current losing events happening, or keep playing under the impression it is all going your way and you become focused on larger and continued wins.  Both are disastrous situations.  Sadly you will have to experience them both and numerous times until you even recognize them and are able to consciously see those things occurring at the casino.  You can sit there reading computer written stuff and say, "all of it does not affect me at the casino because I already know all that or I am that unintelligent to let those things happen".  Well, it will happen and it will repeatedly happen for quite some time.) 

Recognize your plateau/levels

Professionals try to win little but steadily per ranges of opportunities.
Profitable opportunities are not around the corner every time.
For a $100 bettor, it's a lot more likely to win $300, $300 and $300 within three different sessions than trying to get $900 in one single session. Especially when we are on the losing side.

(Extremely important.  Do not believe you can keep rising and playing larger and larger and larger.  No matter if winning or losing.  We all have a plateau and a level we operate at, fit into and are comfortable in.  Find yours and know it.  If you do that you can operate a Money Management system of the correct type in your favor and if you can stick to recognizing what is happening, you will lose only a planned amount or if won, you will be able to walk away with a certain percentage of your win money as you satisfied the desire to win more with the eventual partial loss of it, when that happened.  And that will happen, always, 100% of the times.)

Money management

The less the money we bring in at the table, the better should be the efforts to defend it.

(The correct Money Management system will allow you to only lose a single buy in, the buy in or money you brought and were willing to risk.  It will also allow you to only lose a partial percentage of your win money, if you won.  That is the most important thing.  I have described in detail Money Management systems that I found will work.  So many people confuse and believe a Money Management System will allow you to actually win.  It will not.  The same as the pre-set stop loss and the pre-set stop win.  Unless you are really grinding it, like with real small amounts of money, those last 2 are IMO, the largest mind playing and mind altering things that will only cloud and confuse you with what to do and how to actually do it.

Proper Money Management will allow you to recognize and use your win money for capitalizing on continued good luck, events falling your way that you are wagering on and the system will allow you to have the will power and the knowledge as to when to leave a winner.  Sadly, if you are losing, it will also give you fuel to actually leave.  But it all depends on your recognition of events and having the proper Money Management System.

A proper system really does have several different sections.  Buy in is a percentage of your bank roll.  The refusal to buy in if lost.  Win money gets divided up and put into 3 different sections, current chip stack, positive progressions and side wagering or side parlays, etc.)


Progressions

The only way to win at EV- games is setting up a method capable to get more winning hands than losing hands, period.
Progressions just accelerate a possible advantage OR a sure disadvantage.

(Correct.  And this is done when you win and with positive progressions and keeping yourself in the same plateau/level and with complete recognition, will power and control of the happenings.  Focus and understand being on the correct side is timely and cannot and will never be converted to a science with mathematical formulas and statistics.  Once you truly understand, believe and play according to those three things, your play will improve.)


Totally forget comps and perks

It depends.
If comps are so high or certain deals are made with the casino, we have two ways of winning: winning and just breaking even.
Nobody is going to play with the aim to break even. Sometimes he/she should.

(I did not mean to not take advantage of them.  What I did mean was to not play longer or larger or anything of the likes to get food, hotel rooms, or any other items the pit boss or a casino host will award to you for a certain amount of hours, a certain wager, etc., of being played at the tables. If you already earned it because you played the way and style you desired to play, fine.  If you are sitting down and saying you will play 4 hours at say a $250.00 average to get full comp for room, food & beverage, you are foolish.  If you go to an event that was for VIP, gifts, shows, etc., and you gamble because you went, again, you are foolish, IMO.  As far as rebates on losses, they are so trivial, like 2-3% on a $50,000.00 front money deposit with 4 hours of play a day at a certain min. wager, it is really ridiculous to play at that level if you want the discount either upfront or at the end of your session, if you do not normally play at that level.  That is what I am saying.  FYI, 10-20% discounts normally do not even come into play any longer unless you are depositing front money amounts of $250,000.00 or larger.  The average wagers will not be in your favor and you will be pressured and your thought process will become clouded.  It is not in your favor, not one bit.)

Enjoy and be content with what you get or happens

The best section of the 8.

An experienced player knows that every kind of shoe could happen right there. If we are losing small after a "terrible" shoe was dealt we should be happy. If we win we should be happy no matter how much we are winning. Same about breaking even as we are entitled to lose.
Being happy help us to put aside the dangerous world of betting when angry.
I do not know a single player quitting the table as winner when playing angrily.
It's a scientifically proven fact that angriness leads to worse decisions.

(Anger, frustration, clouded judgements, being influenced, pressure to win, borrowed money and everything along those lines are not in your favor and will generally hurt your decision making process with huge negative happenings.)

Don't force to be outside your zone

If our plan dictates to bet from $20 to $60 and we've found out we're wagering $100 in the effort to recoup or to win more, we are just gambling.
It's true that a $100 winning bet will balance in just one shot five previous $20 losing wagers, yet we should wonder why we had lost such five bets, meaning we must win five bets back. And naturally we should think that a $100 losing bet will double in one shot our previous diluted losses. Now what are we going to bet next hand?

(IMO, plateaus and levels are a bit more complicated than that but yes, playing with the believe you can recoup and recoup quickly with negative progressions is the ruin of almost all players.  I don't need to go on about that.  As well, when winning, continued positive progression without a positive Money Management System that allows for such a thing, will also wipe you out rather quickly.  You need to work with percentages and stick to them with religious and constant recognition.  All of that has to be coupled with the proper frame of mind which will assist you in controlling yourself and using your knowledge at the table while playing.  All of it a huge task and not easy to stick to, because your mind will see everything else happening and convince your knowledge side of everything proper, we are going outside of it all just few a little bit of negative progressions or continued parlay and presses because of the zone you are currently in, is 100% wrong.)

[AsymBacGuy]

I rarely lose a session anymore.  But when I do it's a small loss.  This is because when losing I reduce my bet size to avoid going too deep in the hole.  It's also because I am willing to quit loser!  We should all know what dollar amount that is.  Getting back to even or an acceptable loss is good enough.  But whatever we do to reduce losses also has a negative effect on our winning side. 


J

That's the point: not to lose a session and, just in case, to quit as a small loser.

Since the game, whatever the strategy employed will be always an infinite line like ++-+---+----+-+-++---+--+--+++----------+--++-++-+-----+++-+++++++++++------....having  long term zero sum,
we must find situations where + waves should be more likely and the worst opportunities to find them is betting when minus signs are coming out clustered.

@alrelax: ok with your comments and btw you are totally correct about not falling into the "comps trap" (prolonging sessions just to get comps)

as.




 

[AsymBacGuy]

Here a fresh example on how baccarat could be cruel despite having chosen the right side every time. All six hands were played within two shoes, meaning an average of two bets per shoe. All bets were lost in a row. 

Hand #1

Bet is on player, 8-paint the point, banker turns a paint-9
It happens.

Hand #2

Again a bet on the player, 8-ten the point, 7-2 to the banker.
It could happen.

Hand #3

Bet is on banker, player gets 4 and banker gets 6.
Third card is a 7 for player, banker has to draw and catches a 4.

Hand #4

Player bet. Another natural 8 for player (8- paint), this time banker makes a fkn 8-A.

Now we're getting nervous.

Hand #5

Banker bet. Player gets 3, banker has a meek 1. Ok, this time we didn't chose the right side as any superior initial point is favorite to win by a fair edge.
Third card: 8 for the player, banker catches a super hyper fkng 9.   

Summarizing so far: we've lost five consecutive bets over selecting the spots to wager into.
Besides hand #5 we've always selected good favorite situations.

Hand #6

Bet is on banker.
Player gets 1 (ace and a queen), banker gets 7 (7-paint).
I would have bet all I have on my name that some shi.t was going to happen again.
And I was fkn right as dealer extracted a crappy 7 from the deck.
A girl next to me shouted as she won the Panda side bet.

To say that wholly considered in those such six hands (but one) we were astoundingly favorite to win is an understatement.
Yet we've lost any of them and frankly and after years of playing we didn't recollect the specular situation. Not even close.

The general probability to lose six hands in a row (no matter when we decide to bet) is 1.5625%
The actual probability to lose when you get three natural 8s, an asymmetrical 6 vs 4 hand, a 1 vs a 3 catching an 8 as third card and a 7 vs 1 is a lot lower.
But it happened.

Be prepared to expect the worst.
Yet itlr we cannot be wrong.

as.   


 

 

 

 
 

 



 

 

[alrelax]

Ref: The 6 examples posted by Asym:

Those happen quite a bit in real life B&M play, seems more in clusters/groups than a sole individual one here and there, but not rare by any means.  Throws off beat the new players for sure, but they do happen.

[alrelax]

Here is an actual shoe from the other night @ a B&M Casino:




I divided it up into 5 'Sections & Turning Points'

The circled numbers are naturals or ties

Final hand point values are 'Player' side on the left and 'Banker' side on the right of each hand

Good typical shoe with lots of variance within it, strong--weak--equal--catch up, etc.

[AsymBacGuy]

Yes sh.it could happen and that's why a strategy very close to flat betting is the best by any means.
First, progressions deny the real advantage we have at this game, that is getting time and space to assess what we are really looking for.
Secondly, it's impossible to win without properly selecting the possible advantaged situations bac provides: steady states and "due" states.

Not every shoe will produce easy detectable steady states or due states, more often than not is a complex mix of the two.
Yet, steady states can be interpreted in several ways (for one or both sides: few streaks, few singles, few doubles, strong dominance, etc) and mostly are classified by our mind and actual conditions.
Due states are always objective findings, the number and distribution of singles, doubles, streaks, etc.

When the two factors seem to collide, well we should get a real advantage.

BTW, the "turning points" topic Al is stressing about is really important.

as.   
   

[alrelax]

To address what Asym wrote:

"The general probability to lose six hands in a row (no matter when we decide to bet) is 1.5625%
The actual probability to lose when you get three natural 8s, an asymmetrical 6 vs 4 hand, a 1 vs a 3 catching an 8 as third card and a 7 vs 1 is a lot lower.
But it happened.

Be prepared to expect the worst.
Yet itlr we cannot be wrong."

Usually happens at the time the whole table or numerous players agree on a certain side and series of events.  Just kind of the shoe's way of keeping the players in check I guess.  Stopping everyone from getting over confident. But it does happen often in series like that. 

And it always seems to be catching everyone at surprise and the length of times it will do stuff like that.  Winning or coming through on many of the hands but being thrown sideways on ones that seem 'rare' or only one card to increase the opposite side no one is on to win the hand or one or two cards to reduce the side everyone is one with a fairly good hand to lose. 

And for some reason, the highest majority of those times the shoe creates those clusters are usually midway/halfway or the last section of the shoe.   Not always, but the highest majority of the times.

[alrelax]

What Asym wrote:

"BTW, the "turning points" topic Al is stressing about is really important."

Sections and Turing Points are a visual to allow yourself to see what is happening, kind of an elimination of events.  Things happen and things happen repeatedly in baccarat.  The order is the problem.  But they do happen. 

* Usually sticks around  50-50 for a rough count, at the end of the shoe or other various points;
* Seldom above 10 + or - and less consistently gets greater than + or - 20.  It does, but not on a consistent and regular basis, meaning shoe after shoe after shoe.  Use the + & - as guidelines, not sole wagering factor alone, etc;
* Long sections of anything mean that/those events have been used, not depleted or forbidden from coming out and being presented once again in the same shoe;
* Nothing has to last, nothing has to happen;
* Shoe presentments like to catch up to the opposite side to equal out at various times within a shoe, some shoes will stay within 3 to 6 hands of each other or even less once caught up, yet other shoes will have one side taking off and outperforming the other side by as much as +20;
* Rarely do shoes finish with + or - 20 for one side.  Occasionally possible, but not a consistent event;
* Shoes do finish with a consistent + or - 10 or less as compared to the finishing with + or - 20;
* The highest majority of shoes will somehow finish within + or - 5 of each other.

[alrelax]

That's the point: not to lose a session and, just in case, to quit as a small loser.

Since the game, whatever the strategy employed will be always an infinite line like ++-+---+----+-+-++---+--+--+++----------+--++-++-+-----+++-+++++++++++------....having  long term zero sum,
we must find situations where + waves should be more likely and the worst opportunities to find them is betting when minus signs are coming out clustered.

@alrelax: ok with your comments and btw you are totally correct about not falling into the "comps trap" (prolonging sessions just to get comps)

as.

Great Visual!

It is correct and unfortunately so many people playing baccarat failure to recognize it or realize it:

++++++++++++++++++ //////  ----------------------------------

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

Something like ------------+-+-+++------------+++++++------------++++++--++++-------------

Can be heads and tails over hundreds and hundreds of hands that drain you.


Bottom line is, "sections & turning points".  Get larger  '+' Sides after being in the right spot at the right time.

But you have to throw it in and ride it when it is there.  Your mind has to be clear and you cannot let yourself get sucked in.  You have to have tangible levels and plateaus you gamble at and you have to 100% recognize the intangible presentments of the shoe is what will make you or break you.

[Jimske]

What Asym wrote:

"BTW, the "turning points" topic Al is stressing about is really important."

Sections and Turing Points are a visual to allow yourself to see what is happening, kind of an elimination of events.  Things happen and things happen repeatedly in baccarat.  The order is the problem.  But they do happen. 

* Usually sticks around  50-50 for a rough count, at the end of the shoe or other various points;
* Seldom above 10 + or - and less consistently gets greater than + or - 20.  It does, but not on a consistent and regular basis, meaning shoe after shoe after shoe.  Use the + & - as guidelines, not sole wagering factor alone, etc;
* Long sections of anything mean that/those events have been used, not depleted or forbidden from coming out and being presented once again in the same shoe;
* Nothing has to last, nothing has to happen;
* Shoe presentments like to catch up to the opposite side to equal out at various times within a shoe, some shoes will stay within 3 to 6 hands of each other or even less once caught up, yet other shoes will have one side taking off and outperforming the other side by as much as +20;
* Rarely do shoes finish with + or - 20 for one side.  Occasionally possible, but not a consistent event;
* Shoes do finish with a consistent + or - 10 or less as compared to the finishing with + or - 20;
* The highest majority of shoes will somehow finish within + or - 5 of each other.

What Asym wrote:

"BTW, the "turning points" topic Al is stressing about is really important."

Sections and Turing Points are a visual to allow yourself to see what is happening, kind of an elimination of events.  Things happen and things happen repeatedly in baccarat.  The order is the problem.  But they do happen. 

* Usually sticks around  50-50 for a rough count, at the end of the shoe or other various points;
* Seldom above 10 + or - and less consistently gets greater than + or - 20.  It does, but not on a consistent and regular basis, meaning shoe after shoe after shoe.  Use the + & - as guidelines, not sole wagering factor alone, etc;
* Long sections of anything mean that/those events have been used, not depleted or forbidden from coming out and being presented once again in the same shoe;
* Nothing has to last, nothing has to happen;
* Shoe presentments like to catch up to the opposite side to equal out at various times within a shoe, some shoes will stay within 3 to 6 hands of each other or even less once caught up, yet other shoes will have one side taking off and outperforming the other side by as much as +20;
* Rarely do shoes finish with + or - 20 for one side.  Occasionally possible, but not a consistent event;
* Shoes do finish with a consistent + or - 10 or less as compared to the finishing with + or - 20;
* The highest majority of shoes will somehow finish within + or - 5 of each other.

Agreed on all above.  So unless you have a known edge to wait for a certain "trigger" that has a high enough % win to make the wait worthwhile we are stuck with guessing the turning points.

If you hacve a structured bet placement that will overcome most shoes you can avoid shoes that have a "signature" which doesn't work.  Case in point.  Yesterday a shoe came out without events close to 50-50 and proceeded to go P shoe.  After several losses I got recognize this isn't going to work unless things even out.  Stop or switch betting is the only solution.  Wait for a different shoe.  Enter Follow the Shoe (FTS) and win 15 of 18.  Point I'm making is we need some criteria to tell us what to do and if it doesn't work stop.

But a good selection and bet procedure should be able to overcome a short turning point not going in your favor.  Your example shoe posted here is a good example.  After being +8 uts flat at hand 50 I go down to +4 if not quit.

[Jimske]

Looks like we got three different regular players with three distinct methods of play.

Me: Bets many hands; uses structured placements; neg. prog.

Alrelax: Bets moderate # hands; uses follow the shoe placements; uses both neg and pos. progression.

Assymbac: Bets few hands; uses trigger; flat bets.

*********************************

[alrelax]

Looks like we got three different regular players with three distinct methods of play.

Me: Bets many hands; uses structured placements; neg. prog.

Alrelax: Bets moderate # hands; uses follow the shoe placements; uses both neg and pos. progression.

Assymbac: Bets few hands; uses trigger; flat bets.

*********************************

Jimske:  You bring something out, and actually it is important to understand our own play, our own direction, our own beliefs.  If you don't, you have no goals or cannot even maintain and be conscious of your own plateau/level, which i think is vitally important to a player's survival and success.

"Alrelax: Bets moderate # hands; uses follow the shoe placements; uses both neg and pos. progression."  I do play a moderate number of hands per shoe for a few shoes, that is correct.  I generally use flat and positive progressions as a general rule.  I will employ a negative progression for 1 or 2, possibly a 3rd wager and that is about it as far as that goes.  The best I can sum up what and how I do the type of wagering I do, is because of my past experience playing the game.