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[Dingo]

Hope someone can help having a debate with a friend...

5 Banker or Player in a row
5 Ping Pong in a row

or they both have the exact same chance of happening.

Thanks in advance for any replies

[Garfield]

I think it about the same. But based on my observation, 5 chops in more likely to happen.

Let's hear it from the stat expert. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Hope someone can help having a debate with a friend...

5 Banker or Player in a row
5 Ping Pong in a row

or they both have the exact same chance of happening.

Thanks in advance for any replies

That's a good question, finally.

In a perfect 50/50 game, 5 B in a row will come out one time per every 32 five patterns, so you'll expect on average to get a ratio of 31 losses and 1 win (3.125% W probability).

On the other hand, if you consider every ping pong sequence you'll get TWO patterns (BPBPB and PBPBP) so it appears that now you have a 2/32 probability, but we must assume every hand to start from the very first hand of the 5 pattern, otherwise we're playing a 4 sequence and not a 5 sequence.
So, in a perfect 50/50 game the probability to get BBBBB or BPBPB or PBPBP will be exactly the same.

But baccarat isn't a perfect 50/50 game as asymmetricity will shift the results, so itlr BBBBB is the most likely 5 hand pattern overwhelming the other 31 patterns. (and BPBPB is more likely than PBPBP, of course).

Notice that mathematically speaking, a mathematical shifted side (B) will overcome every other pattern but it takes a long time to show this feature and not only for variance issues.

Actually the finite card distribution will produce along the way many P favored hands contradicting the mathematical assumptions, but only utilizing a perfect pc card counting procedure we are able to get the profitability to wager the P side on such selected spots.

Moreover at baccarat there's a very very slight force acting to get the opposite of the last result, so we have two opposing forces working.

Summarizing,
BBBBB is surely more likely than BPBPB but only in the very long run.

The most likely card distribution every shoe will feature is a "chopping" mood, but at a slight lesser degree than what the asymmetricity does itlr.

In a word, I'd say that on short-intermediate terms BPBPB might be more likely than BBBBB for sound reasons but itlr the reverse is undoubtedly true.

as. 

   
 





 













 

[Eight Iron]

5 Banker or Player in a row
5 Ping Pong in a row

B=50.7%                    P=.493%
BB=27.7%                  PP=24%
BBB=13%                   PPP=12%
BBBB=6.6%                PPPP=6%
BBBBB=3.35%            PPPPP=2.9%

These percentages are for consecutive wins starting from a point of zero wins.

If four or any number of consecutive Banker wins have occurred, the probability for Banker winning the next hand is always 50.7%, not 3.35%.

(It can vary slightly depending on the cards that have been dealt.)

That would be "Gambler's Fallacy".

This is true for Player as well.  49.3%

BPBPB=3.17%
PBPBP=3.08%

           

[AsymBacGuy]

BPBPB=3.17%
PBPBP=3.08%
         

So it seems we are at least two getting the same conclusions.

Now the hardest part is telling Jimskie about this.

as. 

[Carlitos]

BPBPB=3.17% PBPBP=3.08%

If BPBPB converted into, BBBPP, 13% and 24%. And PBPBP into PPPBB, 12% and 27.7%.



Carlitos

[Jimske]

So it seems we are at least two getting the same conclusions.

Now the hardest part is telling Jimskie about this.

as.

Nice try, no cigar!  Actually this is common knowledge and I wouldn't disagree.  The FACT that B hits slightly more times than P should make this obvious.  The real issue as you alluded to initially is that the differences are so small that for all practical purposes we are playing a 50-50 game given the number of hands most play in a lifetime.

So Garfield's argument with his friend is moot.  They are both right.  One is right statistically while the other is right from a pragmatic point.  One might say the occurrences are about the same and move on to PREDICTION.

So when you make one PREDICTION of these "rare events" every 300 decisions how long will it take you to use these stats to advantage?  LMAO.  No, asymbac, still waiting for the book or, if not forthcoming, than some kind of explanation showing how to predict more wins than not and also tell us of the strike rate.

I'm from NJ and like the guidos used to say, "Can't    b u l l s h i t     a     b u l l s h i t t e r!"

[AsymBacGuy]

Nice try, no cigar!  Actually this is common knowledge and I wouldn't disagree.  The FACT that B hits slightly more times than P should make this obvious.  The real issue as you alluded to initially is that the differences are so small that for all practical purposes we are playing a 50-50 game given the number of hands most play in a lifetime.

That's the point, to amplify those small discrepances by some statistical features, not neglecting other aspects of the game's finiteness, shoe per shoe.
You prefer to follow trends by betting almost every hand, I prefer to put in play different and more complex forms of trend following by waiting the apparition of certain triggers.
I could shorten the process by betting more hands but I know to get harder variance battles to fight against.

as.

[Eight Iron]

If BPBPB converted into, BBBPP, 13% and 24%. And PBPBP into PPPBB, 12% and 27.7%.
Carlitos

BPBPB  (.507)(.493)(.507)(.493)(.507)=3.17%

BBBPP  (.507)(.507)(.507)(.493)(.493)=3.167%

Show how you arrived at your percentages.