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[21 Aces]

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The answer to the 20/100 Flaw is Brett Morton's MM.
It is based upon safety nets and when to push with flexibility win targets.

So a week might be +80 +50 +40 +60 +40 = 270 where the risk could been around 100, so you would be ahead, overall +170 ...



Now try to rap you mind around this ...

Personally i have to think in new ways as the money management is cruel with no errors.

Now what amount make me happy - i would say 50 Euro would make me feel great.
So that should be my Happy-Point.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits.
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Thump of rule is that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target - if you do.

This is also a MM based upon the same principals.

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
70 Happy-Point
100 Gold-Top
? Jackpot

Conclusion is that you can skip one big or huge bankroll and go all in for a small % as noting is due to happen and you will sooner or later lose your bankroll.

This way you can base the methods or session upon your strike ratio.

Win two sessions out of three sessions
Win three sessions out of four sessions
Win four sessions out five sessions

Also know that this strategy set limits how many units you have to play with - so there is no room for any kind of sloppy or fuzzy games.   
 
Explore and find out your own variance ...

Lets say you cut the targets around 33% you might succeed and from that point as you gain experience tight up your game plan.
So the MM could look like this if you win more sessions then you lose.

MM with units ...

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

I will from now on only test all my bet selections based upon this MM with different staking plans.
As i remember ND aim to win two session out of three - i guess he use some kind of MM to succeed with he's hit ratio.   

Reference: Brett Morton - Brett Morton's Money Management

Thank you for posting this Sputnik!   Thoughts on the context of baccarat?  It would make sense that players converge on some consistency on each of these levels specifically for baccarat.

The 2nd and 3rd profit targets are important, but not nearly as important as playing strong enough to get up to the 1st.  From there it's a matter of working to make gains with a trailing stop. Right now, my primary challenge is determining a loss limit as a function of bank roll size and as a function of bet size.

So for the sake of discussion as you can easily scale up and do the math, let's say:

Template:
Bank Roll:
Unit Size:  $10
Loss-Limit:
Bottom-Line-Target:
Happy-Point:
Gold-Top:
Happy-Point Safety Net:
Jackpot:
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit):

Proposed Levels 1:
Bank Roll: $1,000
Unit Size:  $10
Loss-Limit: $150
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $75
Gold-Top: $150
Happy-Point Safety Net:$100 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $50 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $750

Proposed Levels 1:
Bank Roll: $3,000
Unit Size:  $30
Loss-Limit: $450
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $225
Gold-Top: $450
Happy-Point Safety Net:$300 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $150 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $2,250

[21 Aces]

Proposed Levels 2 (Tight Leash):
Bank Roll: $1,000
Unit Size:  $10
Loss-Limit: $75
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $75
Gold-Top: $150
Happy-Point Safety Net:$100 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $50 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $375

Proposed Levels 2 (Tight Leash):
Bank Roll: $3,000
Unit Size:  $30
Loss-Limit: $225
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $225
Gold-Top: $450
Happy-Point Safety Net:$300 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $150 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $1,125

[21 Aces]

F.  Hit the limits and....  Hardest thing in the game.  DISCIPLINE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXhWD3tK-dw

[alrelax]

The most unrealistic limits I have seen printed.  IMO of course. 

[21 Aces]

The most unrealistic limits I have seen printed.  IMO of course.

It's a framework.  That is why I want to see people post variants, and actually there should be a more or less agreed to range for each of the levels based on experience.


Updated:
Bank Roll: $1,000
Unit Size:  $30
Loss-Limit: $450
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $225
Gold-Top: $450
Happy-Point Safety Net:$300 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $150 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $2,250


Updated:
Bank Roll: $10,000
Unit Size:  $300
Loss-Limit: $4,500
Bottom-Line-Target: $0
Happy-Point: $2,000
Gold-Top: $4,000
Happy-Point Safety Net:$2,500 (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with $1,500 trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): $15,000

[21 Aces]

Money Management - Cross Reference:

1/3, 1/3, 1/3 summation
http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/13-13-13-summation/

[21 Aces]

The most unrealistic limits I have seen printed.  IMO of course.

Can you please post some levels within this framework that you think are more realistic?  This is a serious request for everyone.  Thanks.

[alrelax]

Can you please post some levels within this framework that you think are more realistic?  This is a serious request for everyone.  Thanks.

IMO, too hard-too constrained to post definitive levels.  To me, it depends how the wins or catch up came.  Easy or hard.  How the numbers were falling and weak, neutral or strong (favoring one side or the other).  So many variables to set levels, what you are after I think. 

Also depends how the win money is flowing or struggle to come to you.  If you are winning the majority or let's say almost every hand, why stop?  Likewise, if you are struggling, why continue. 

[alrelax]

To me, loss limits are dependent on what you want to risk.  Not as a blanket number for everyone.

As far as a happy medium, upper or bottom win-hold number and then cash out and leave, again, solely dependent on each of us and how we view our buy-in and/or bank roll.

But for myself, I look for a double or a triple my buy-in to consider leaving/cashing out. 

Buy-in's are usually different and separate from bank-rolls for a lot of people as well.

I don't care about numbers or projections or anything if I am winning like 7 to 9 hands out of 10.  When I get to the point I won and the shoes are getting too complicated to play and less than 50% of my hands are winning, then I would probably leave.  But it also depends on how the sections of the shoe are forming and what has happened.

I hope that explains what you are asking.

[21 Aces]

Very helpful. 

Let's work with this and players can scale up or down.  I am most interested in Loss-Limit, Critical Loss, and Unit Size because these are the most important parameters.  The rest are just ways to help lock in winning.

Bank Roll: $1,000
Unit Size: 
Loss-Limit:
Bottom-Line-Target:
Happy-Point:
Gold-Top:
Happy-Point Safety Net:   (This can be set to equal Happy Point)
Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with    trailing stop.
Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit): 

[alrelax]

Yes, you are correct about, 'helping lock in a win' and for the record, that is exactly what the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd does for me and with great help and confidence, while affording me that knowledge--'hey, you tried to get more and it is just not happening', walk away confidence!  To me, that is money management, the rest that I will touch on if just, 'forethought and speculation' of what you should do. 

I can only say the way I would play at a local casino, might not apply to you or to others.  In addition, like I mentioned before--lots of players including myself, adjust their wager size depending on what the cards are doing and how the hands/sections/outcomes are forming.  To lengthy to go into here trying to cover everything. 

If I just sat down and my buy-in was $1,000.00 I would do the following:

 
Unit Size:  [$50 to $150 out of my buy-in, not counting win progressions]

Loss-Limit: [Depends on how many shoes or how long I was trying to stay, etc. But I risk
                   my buy-in on a local level which is normally around $500 to $3,000.  If you are
                   referring to per shoe, walking away and cashing out or other delaying tactics, I
                   don't know.]

Bottom-Line-Target:  [$1,000.00]

Happy-Point: [$3,000.00]

Gold-Top: [$4,000.00 to $4,500.00, but my 1/3rd method will kick in and stop my
                  wishing for such and such $$$ amounts, etc.]

Happy-Point Safety Net:   (This can be set to equal Happy Point)  [Really hard to say, but under
                                        average conditions, without nasty shoes where I started to win eventually
                                        and without the easy-as-pie 'great' shoes that are consistently strong or
                                        weak, etc., I would have to say $2,500.00]

Jackpot: Just keep trailing your max above Gold-Top with trailing stop. [I just keep employing my
                                        1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd MM method and if I keep winning, why leave,  my
                                        2/3rds I have put aside and my current 'chips-in-front-of-me' will allow me
                                        to keep realizing the win money and compounding it without thought of
                                        any bracket or $ amount as to what I am happy with]

Critical Loss (5 Session Loss-Limit):  [I don't play that way]

NOTE:  My unit size and buy-in or 'chip-in-front-of-me', will adjust in conjunction with my 1/3rd method if I am winning after a while. 

[21 Aces]

If I just sat down and my buy-in was $1,000.00 I would do the following:

To clarify, if you buy-in for $1,000 then what would your approximate bank roll be? 

I posted $1,000 as the example bank roll because it is easy for everyone to scale up.  For example, someone with $100,000 bank roll can do the easy math just as someone with $25,000 can multiply by 25, etc....



THANKS - EASY TO TELL WHO IS A PLAYER.

[alrelax]

Subjective I guess.  Some people use mathematical formulas for their bankrolls, which I think only a very tiny portion of those that say they do, actually do what they say.

I have a bank roll, it too fluctuates because I am  not a full-time player dependent on Bac for a living.  My bankroll is not just for gambling, it is for living expenses, future expenses, business items and gambling, etc.  So while I understand how someone say with a bank roll of $10,000.00 might figure $1,000 a session and is good for 10 session or maybe he brings the whole $10,000 and has stop-losses that he really does adhere to, etc.  Like you say, could be $100,000 or $50,000 bank roll and brings it or does not bring it and buy-ins with various amounts.  However, after a number of years, I really don't do that.  I play locally and a few times a year I go to Vegas or Southern California or back east.  I stay a week or two and I gamble heavier. But, when I win, I normally dispose of the money with purchases that are generally  going to be made anyways or ones that I am splurging on.  I hurt myself in the past by being greedy, with the more more more, greater greater greater bank rolls and as well, wagers.  Works for a while and then too hard to go back.  So I learned to calm down and play different. 

Meaning, I play with buy-ins that are not ear-marked for anything else.  Also, my buy-in might become a mini bank roll of sorts for a period of time if I win. In sorts, more times than not---my buy-in is my stop loss.  However, that stop loss might be for the shoe and not the session or it might continue over onto other shoes.   

But, as far as having a bank roll of say $20,000 and bringing $2,000 at a time to the casino, then when I win I replenish the bank roll and build it larger, I don't do that.  So, I am not the one to ask or comment on strict stop-losses and playing from a bank roll that is set, etc. 

I really do think however, that only you can answer your question about what a bank roll should be.  I would think how easily the bank roll can be replaced or not if you lost it, etc.  How you make your money besides gambling, if you do.  Too many variables to uniformly say, a buy in should be $ XYZ with a bank roll of $ XYZ, etc. 

[Nathan Detroit5]

Systems alone do not make you a winner. A system is only part oi the entire picture Add to it Money management, exit strategies when winning or losing. Discipline to adhere to those rules.

Not to forget the proper bankroll and dividing it into equal session amounts .

Never chase losses with a martingale or any other negative priogrssions .

Secure higher winnings with mild positive progressions which bring you to your win goal much faster.


Never replay any of the accumulated net winnings. That would be like adding to the bankroll . All calculations of win goal and loss limit are based upon the particular session`s bankroll.


The BIG FOUR by John  Patrick : Knowledge of the game , Bankroll , Money management , Discipline .

.

[21 Aces]

Systems alone do not make you a winner. A system is only part oi the entire picture Add to it Money management, exit strategies when winning or losing. Discipline to adhere to those rules.

Not to forget the proper bankroll and dividing it into equal session amounts .

Never chase losses with a martingale or any other negative priogrssions .

Secure higher winnings with mild positive progressions which bring you to your win goal much faster.


Never replay any of the accumulated net winnings. That would be like adding to the bankroll . All calculations of win goal and loss limit are based upon the particular session`s bankroll.


The BIG FOUR by John  Patrick : Knowledge of the game , Bankroll , Money management , Discipline .

.

http://johnpatrickcasino.com/biography.htm