BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Topic: Can anyone figure out how many possible outcomes exist in a shoe of baccarat?  (Read 1971 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
By Alrelax:

You have misinterpreted what I state. I understand what you were saying about the mathematical odds of streaks. And I personally do not play for streaks.

 My wagering including my positive progressions and parlays are based on win money and chance. At times they make a lot of money and other times, I lose my buy in. I survived the game and I have survived it for decades, because my wins crush my losses and they do that because of the way that I use the win money and convert it to progressions and parlays as I have detailed out.

 I attempt to play what is coming out of the shoe and the way it's being presented, no matter if it's ones or twos or threes or anything else. I've made that clear. But you had misinterpreted and twisted around somewhat the things I and other people have said.

And once again for the record I understand what you were saying and yes it happens sometimes and yet at other times it will not.  A player is not at the table any consecutive time to match what mathematical and statistical theory say will happen and does happen. As well, a player might be at a table for the only the deficient amount or only the abundant amount of what those mathematical and statistical odds are, etc..

(I stand by what I said above and it is reality, hard for most to believe because it is contradictory to what they read and begin to believe.)


By Lugi:

That response clearly tells me you do not understand.  Nowhere did I state I play for streaks.

Your wagering and how you wager has no relevance on the topic at hand nor the thread title. 

Time at the table has no relevance, nobody is playing for expected statistical results to come true, gimme a break please.  We both know the game doesn't pan out according to the expected maths.

( #1) You do not understand what my response actually was citing.  You play for the math and the stats, does not matter if it is streaks or chop-chops, etc.  #2) My wagering and how I wager has relevance on this topic that I created.  Because, of the sheer number of possibilities, and those huge, almost incomprehensible numbers of possible presentments that could be made within a shoe, does stop those with any mathematical or statistical outcome to apply that very same thing.  #3)  Time at the table has relevance.  People do play for the math and the stats they believe in, true or not, proven or not.  And yes, we know the game normally does not pan out to the expected math and the few times it does, it just reinforces the fallacy those players have that wager that way.) 



By Alrelax:

Fact is reality. You are either predicting and guessing either the reality of the game or the mathematical and statistical side of the theories and numbers. Otherwise you're going to close your eyes flip a coin and pick a side according to heads or tails so that's the only two ways to play the game.   One is predicting with a form of guessing of some type no matter what it is like I said or blindly guessing, say flipping a coin or picking A or B out of your pocket and betting on that.


By Lugi in reference to the above:

 Afraid you are totally wrong.

It is difficult to determine exactly what you mean by the statement;


(No, I am afraid I am not totally wrong.  What I meant by that statement was, either following the way I think and believe in to win or following math and stat results are really the same.  Some type of guessing in order to win.  It is how a player handles the win money along with his application of M.M., parlays, progressions, judgment of time and presentments, how he handles and governs himself emotionally, what his vision, goals, and experiences are and how he applies those to the way he is winning or losing with each session.  There are things and I have written about them.

But if we both sit down at the same table, we are both wagering with a certain amount of prediction and guessing with whatever it is, we are each believing in or following to make our bet selection.  Does not matter if that is math /statistical results you are applying or a blind guess each wager where you flip a coin marked with P and B and whichever side it lands on you wager, or if you follow everything I believe in.  Any of those three ways there will be a certain amount of unpredictability to each, which may excel for yourself or cause you deficit and you will not be able to define, decipher or overcome until you are able to armchair quarterback it, and then of course it is too late.) 

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.


Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
I wrote this a few weeks ago, and I do think it fits in here as well:

An Edge Without A Physical Bias" (??) 

My Thoughts, As Follows:

That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem.  Thanks, Glen.

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more. 

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.   Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case. It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following: "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system".  That sentence holds true to the hundredth power in any casino, police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigation, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path. 

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their "rewards", for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the "fruits of your desires", sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good. 

'Gamblers have a stronger misperception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it'.  Please understand the words, Misperception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate) they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misperception. ("A wrong or incorrect understanding or interpretation"). I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time.   

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect.  Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc. 

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so' math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more the play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going. 

Then what happens?  Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants. 

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of wanna-be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day. 

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the "Flip of the Switch".  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, "all in" wager, or the other one, "all or nothing", types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe.  Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, "I can outsmart the system" type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke. 

What is the, "Flip of the Switch"?

"Flip of the Switch", is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, "Flip of the Switch".  In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The other of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game. 

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, "Flipping of your Switch", when you're in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is no the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play. Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision and a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
Our minds make our decisions as to what and how to wager.

Those that say and stick to the statement, "Yeah I know,  but that is why I follow such and such and never deviate from such", etc., etc., and so on.  Yeah right.  It is still each of our minds making that final decision as to what to do, how to do it, how long to play, when to cash out, when to re enter, when to call it a day or night, when to return, what the wagering units will be, what the bank roll will be, what the buy in will be, where to go, what table to play at, when break time is, and so on. 

The list is long and more complicated than most all realize.  But it all boils down to one thing and one thing first, our minds making decisions. 

You have to do that first before all the emotions, psych and whatever goals, rules and schedules you follow, believe in or wager against, etc., get a chance to add profit or take away from your buy in and bank rolls. 

 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline Lugi

  • Steady Member
  • **
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
By Alrelax:

And once again for the record I understand what you were saying and yes it happens sometimes and yet at other times it will not.  A player is not at the table any consecutive time to match what mathematical and statistical theory say will happen and does happen. As well, a player might be at a table for the only the deficient amount or only the abundant amount of what those mathematical and statistical odds are, etc..

(I stand by what I said above and it is reality, hard for most to believe because it is contradictory to what they read and begin to believe.)


( #1) You do not understand what my response actually was citing.  You play for the math and the stats, does not matter if it is streaks or chop-chops, etc.  #2) My wagering and how I wager has relevance on this topic that I created.  Because, of the sheer number of possibilities, and those huge, almost incomprehensible numbers of possible presentments that could be made within a shoe, does stop those with any mathematical or statistical outcome to apply that very same thing.  #3)  Time at the table has relevance.  People do play for the math and the stats they believe in, true or not, proven or not.  And yes, we know the game normally does not pan out to the expected math and the few times it does, it just reinforces the fallacy those players have that wager that way.) 



By Alrelax:

Fact is reality. You are either predicting and guessing either the reality of the game or the mathematical and statistical side of the theories and numbers. Otherwise you're going to close your eyes flip a coin and pick a side according to heads or tails so that's the only two ways to play the game.   One is predicting with a form of guessing of some type no matter what it is like I said or blindly guessing, say flipping a coin or picking A or B out of your pocket and betting on that.


By Lugi in reference to the above:

 Afraid you are totally wrong.

It is difficult to determine exactly what you mean by the statement;


(No, I am afraid I am not totally wrong.  What I meant by that statement was, either following the way I think and believe in to win or following math and stat results are really the same.  Some type of guessing in order to win.  It is how a player handles the win money along with his application of M.M., parlays, progressions, judgment of time and presentments, how he handles and governs himself emotionally, what his vision, goals, and experiences are and how he applies those to the way he is winning or losing with each session.  There are things and I have written about them.

But if we both sit down at the same table, we are both wagering with a certain amount of prediction and guessing with whatever it is, we are each believing in or following to make our bet selection.  Does not matter if that is math /statistical results you are applying or a blind guess each wager where you flip a coin marked with P and B and whichever side it lands on you wager, or if you follow everything I believe in.  Any of those three ways there will be a certain amount of unpredictability to each, which may excel for yourself or cause you deficit and you will not be able to define, decipher or overcome until you are able to armchair quarterback it, and then of course it is too late.) 


Without proper quotes it is difficult to respond, am I responding to myself, repeating myself?  Your response and the post that followed has now manifested the thread to another direction. There was no need to tell me about casino's or emotional control, I am well aware of all the player physiological and casino kidology when it comes to gambling.

I did realize you were aware of expected statistical distribution for streaks, not that knowledge of these kind of stats will do the player any good, I threw them in as a kind of recap. For the sake of repeating myself, it does not involve playing for mathematical stats to happen (kick in occur), hence time at the table has no relevance, it is baffling you make that statement without actually knowing what the strategy is, but there you go. 

It does not involve predicting or guessing, because of the nature of the game, as I've already stated, would be a useless exercise, every bet placed is 100% mechanical (pre-set pre-determined, not every hand is played.   

Again the correct figure of 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 possible combinations is merely a red herring, it is simply not relevant. if one breaks down a shoe, it is very easy to define all possible combinations that can occur in any given subset of hands. Therefore (I'll repeat what I already stated), if a series has a mathematical expectation of occurring say once in 128 trials and there can only be say seven possible trials in a seventy hand Baccarat shoe, well it shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the expectation despite the fact anything can happen in a game of non-correlated independent outcomes.  However certain scenarios are extremely unlikely, in fact considering streak distribution expectations of Baccarat, plus only losing to 14% of a given streak length, it is more or less a bullet proof bet selection.

It is something I've used for a long period, I know how it performs both good and bad, one could literally play 50~60 shoes weekly and count on one hand the number of losing trials for such a sample.   A suitable wagering approach is a separate ball-game.

Anyway I rarely visit this board, there is nothing to be gained by me continuing in this thread.  You posed a question, I responded as well as dismissing the "too many variables" myth.   I'm letting you know unequivocally that despite your many decades of experience, there exists methods which to approach the game that you obviously have never witnessed, never considered and have no conception of, which is perfectly fine, most other players I mingle with all fall into the same bracket.   You'll just have to take my word for it or not, either way it doesn't bother me in the slightest, your belief has no influence or impact on what I do at table.   I didn't participate in this thread to "win people over", suffice to say keep considering the realities of a game of random outcome were prior hands \ patterns have no bearing on future outcomes.

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile


It is something I've used for a long period, I know how it performs both good and bad, one could literally play 50~60 shoes weekly and count on one hand the number of losing trials for such a sample.   A suitable wagering approach is a separate ball-game.

Anyway I rarely visit this board, there is nothing to be gained by me continuing in this thread. 

1)  Then you have it all figured out, you have a system/trigger/schedule, etc., you should be very wealthy and you have certainly found what 99.99% plus of all players have sought and failed.  You should be admired;

2)  You will be missed, good luck;

3)  Your questions and statements were answered to the best of my ability, because you sounded sincere.  If I did not answer them, then I would be challenged as to why I did not.  When I did, you pressed on and I do believe you interpreted them for your positioning;

4)  Unfortunately, I am a gambler and have been prior to being Admin/Owner of this board and most other websites the owner/Admin is not.  Here, it is to my disadvantage because members can easily co-mingle my gambling with the Admin end of it and vice versa.   

I have no problem with you staying or leaving. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
And I still stand by those what I was referring to with those large possibilities of combinations, they cannot be ignored when attempting to factor in, what might or might not happen.  Because, you cannot be able to determine what those 74-84 hands will be configured as.  The possibility does not whittle down to what it actually is, a possible 74-84 combinations.  It remains in the quad-trillion possibilities.  If you knew everything that was eliminated after the shuffle, then you are down to what it actually contains. 

Once again, true---the frequency of streaks or chop/chops or doubles or any other trend or pattern and the possibility of it continuing or coming about or reoccurring, etc.  But without infinite bank roll and buy ins, virtually 99% plus of gamblers cannot afford to attempt to be redundant as you cited because something appears to have a 14% or a 86% pro or con appearance rate, etc.

As far as the elimination of anything and the testing that proved only 14% or whatever came about, even with 100 or 10,000 shoes that produced that, the next shoe is not constrained or scheduled to reproduce that same thing once again. 

Anyone can armchair quarterback anything once it occurred.  As well, IMO, with testing results, the ones or any number of ones that just so happened to conflict with the winning ones, somehow get miraculously 'uncounted' in most all cases.  It is not fun to have the system produce a greater amount of losing results than winning ones.

As well, sorry, the gambler talking in me and having the exposure to the casinos and casino management, the game would not be there, or the rules changed,  if there was a 86% player favorably possibility. 

Anyone would loan you $100,000.00 USD, to profit $86,000.00.  A simple one run a day, would be $2,580,000.00 a month and $30,960,000.00 a year profit. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline Lugi

  • Steady Member
  • **
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
Fair enough you have enticed me back to respond to some of your comments.

And I still stand by those what I was referring to with those large possibilities of combinations, they cannot be ignored when attempting to factor in, what might or might not happen.  Because, you cannot be able to determine what those 74-84 hands will be configured as.  The possibility does not whittle down to what it actually is, a possible 74-84 combinations.  It remains in the quad-trillion possibilities.  If you knew everything that was eliminated after the shuffle, then you are down to what it actually contains. 

Ever heard the expression;    How do you eat an elephant?







Answer "small chunks at a time"





So let's apply the same rationale to a 70 hand shoe which can produce 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 combinations. 

Firstly this extremely large figure applies to the entire shoe, even the trend guessers, those that bet according to what the shoe is doing in the here and now, do not look at an entire shoe.  Rather they may look at the previous 5 ~ 10 hands, a previous pattern consisting of 5 ~ 10 hands, who knows.   I can't recall many players that would even look beyond 10 hands in order to decide which side to bet next.  I do appreciate what you are eluding to is the vast number of different patterns / sequences that can occur in the entire shoe.    Actually everything that can possible occur can be very easily defined.  Therefore we can safely assume the figure of 70^2, or 84^2 are simply not relevant.

Here is an example of applying the "eating of an elephant" analogy above.

Say we divided 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 possible combinations for an entire shoe into 4 hand outcomes?

We would have 16 possible combinations, in real terms those 'possible 16 pattern combinations' can be reduced to 8 if we teat outcomes simply as patterns, because BPBP is the same as PBPB. = 4 chops.

In other words for any 4 hand sequence, we have a total of 8 possible outcome.

These can be easily shown (X = can represent Bank or Player) Ties are ignored.

XXXX, XXXO, XXOX, XXOO, XOXX, XOXO, XOOX, XOOO

What this shows is a very simplistic way to manage that the rather daunting figure of '1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000' all possible combinations.   Therefore your comment "large possibilities of combinations, they cannot be ignored ", yes they certainly can.  If we break down 70^2 into 4 hand sequences, we only have to deal with 8 possible patterns.

If we break down 70^2 to a 5 hand sequence, we have to deal with 16 possible combinations, break down the shoe into 6 hands we only have to deal with 32 possible combinations and so on.


Once again, true---the frequency of streaks or chop/chops or doubles or any other trend or pattern and the possibility of it continuing or coming about or reoccurring, etc.  But without infinite bank roll and buy ins, virtually 99% plus of gamblers cannot afford to attempt to be redundant as you cited because something appears to have a 14% or a 86% pro or con appearance rate, etc.

I did not mention anything having a pro or con 14% or 86% expectation / appearance.   As I mentioned above, my approach is 100% mechanical (it might as well be, because guessing is exactly that, a guess).  Therefore if something is 100% mechanical, then the nemesis pattern should ought to be able to be defined, the player knows in advance what breaks their strategy, as opposed to simply choosing the wrong side for those players that prefer to trend the game via the score board!

This is no different, what breaks this strategy, is 14% of any streak of 5, nothing else. Chops, doubles, 3 streaks, 4's and 5 streaks 86% of the time won't result in a losing trial, a trial consists of a series of bets.  There is no pro or con 14% / 86% expectation of anything.

However there does exists an expectation, the expectation is that a once per 64 event won't occur too often, certainly given that an average shoe only produces 10 events. Alas in this game anything can happen, if did occur, you would be confident it should be smooth sailing for the remainder of any session.

When you sit down to play, the expectation is not to lose complete series of bets in any shoe, because in the back of your mind it would be like the casino hitting a 1 in 64 shot within 10 attempts.

Streaks of 5 should occur once every 80 hands (32 possible 5 hand combinations /2 ), or 3.125% of the time, but as we know, the game does not conform nor follow any mathematical expectation for any given session.  For a single shoe, you may see 4 or 5, streaks of 5.  Only 14% of which result in a complete series of bets failure.     


As well, IMO, with testing results, the ones or any number of ones that just so happened to conflict with the winning ones, somehow get miraculously 'uncounted' in most all cases.  It is not fun to have the system produce a greater amount of losing results than winning ones.
An intelligent observation, which I'll address shortly.

As well, sorry, the gambler talking in me and having the exposure to the casinos and casino management, the game would not be there, or the rules changed,  if there was a 86% player favorably possibility.
No 86% player advantage, I was merely using a percentage figure to express what is and what isn't the nemesis pattern is for a given bet selection strategy.


1)  Then you have it all figured out, you have a system/trigger/schedule, etc., you should be very wealthy and you have certainly found what 99.99% plus of all players have sought and failed.

I'm afraid it is not so simplistic. I think it is safe to assume you have never reviewed, considered, studied combination tables.
If you have, then you would be aware, there is no possible advantage to had, none whatsoever, it is mathematically impossible for it to be otherwise.  Makes no difference if you 'trend' the game, tossed a coin, card tracked, pattern tracked, bet mechanically, applied the Zumma stats, what has been invented in the past, what will be invented up in the future. 

No mathematical advantage can possibly exist period. So literally anybody who has ever stated, "I have a great system", tried to sell any system, ditto applies to some members of this board, they are talking out of their backside, no super secret my bet is better than your bull, which we come across from time to time.   

However l must expand on this statement "No mathematical advantage can possibly exist", the opposite is also true.  No system has a disadvantage over any other system.  Everything is equal, combination tables over any given number of hands easily proves this to be true, there is no escaping the maths, those that can't accept or dismiss these facts always talk in circles, if you get my drift!

So no doubt you're wondering, does this apply to me, where is my edge? 

Of course it applies to me, there is no edge, never claimed there was one, rather only stated what the nemesis pattern is, because as with any style of play it's nemesis can be defined.

Example
If you're betting FLD you lose against chops, chops consist of 50% of all hands.
If you're betting DBL you lose all 2nd line hands, a portion of top-line results, repeating 2's etc (approx 37% of all hands).
If you bet Zig-zag you lose to chops 50% of the time.
If you look at the score board and bet the Trend, you lose due to simply guessing wrong a 50-50 outcome.
If you switch this way then that way after X amount of losing bets, you still lose to the more frequently occurring streak lengths (singles, doubles, 3 streaks combos).
If you bet the cut, you lose against frequent long streaks.
I lose not to all 5 streaks, but only 14% of them, a streak of 5 should occur 3.25% of the time.

You should be able to see from the crude examples above an despite having no mathematical advantage , I should lose a series of bets less often than a lot of other styles of play, there lies my advantage, it is controlling the LIAR's by hopefully keeping them manageable, along with eliminating the utter frustration of experiencing the highs and lows by guessing right and wrong when choosing which side to bet each and every hand.  For every adrenaline fueled high, there exists the flip side of an even deeper depressing low.   

As always MM is absolutely paramount, even more so when the price you are paying is risking many bets in order to secure a winning bet.

Offline owenslv

  • Steady Member
  • **
  • Posts: 64
    • View Profile
Nicely stated Luigi. I sincerely enjoyed your post and respect your approach.

Offline alrelax

  • B&M Player since 1980
  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Posts: 3579
  • Gender: Male
  • 'Caring for Kids' Nonprofit Children's Assistance
    • View Profile
Very welk stated, thanks
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Offline TheMagician

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 114
  • Gender: Male
  • Probability always starts at the subatomic level
    • View Profile

If we break down 70^2 into 4 hand sequences, we only have to deal with 8 possible patterns. [/u]

If we break down 70^2 to a 5 hand sequence, we have to deal with 16 possible combinations, break down the shoe into 6 hands we only have to deal with 32 possible combinations and so on.



70^2 = 70x70 = 4,900. Only a math-illiterate cannot see the difference between 2^70   and 70^2. Mathematical Illiteracy and its consequence when not kept in check is like Ebola, it spreads fast and is deadly to the accurate reasoning based on these assumed "facts" by its victims.

Basically, it is a vile sickness called Innumeracy. The best way to describe it would be to believe a color-blind describing the colors of the rainbow to his fellow man and the latter not questioning the inevitable errors from said descriptions.

I rest my case. >:D
To the Mind, nothing is really impossible. It just takes a clear vision and right effort.

Offline TheMagician

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 114
  • Gender: Male
  • Probability always starts at the subatomic level
    • View Profile


No mathematical advantage can possibly exist period. So literally anybody who has ever stated, "I have a great system", tried to sell any system, ditto applies to some members of this board, they are talking out of their backside, no super secret my bet is better than your bull, which we come across from time to time.   

However l must expand on this statement "No mathematical advantage can possibly exist", the opposite is also true.  No system has a disadvantage over any other system. 


You have proven this HOW?  Please submit the valid formulae, or mathematical theorem, that proves your claim.

To save you time, considering your astounding home-brewed, childish quasi-math that has nothing to do with actual mathematical reality;

An event is ONLY impossible when its probability is zero.  If the probability is greater than zero then it might occur. (if you have difficulty understanding this, re-read).

If you claim such an event to be zero, you have to provide mathematical proof of how you have reached the said conclusion based on your acclaimed mathematical knowledge which unfortunately I deem close to zero.

Conclusion. This ongoing sickness of your blatant innumeracy and the very lack of proper mathematical conceptuality and terminology put into problems of the aforementioned character seems to permeate you from top to toe.

It would be ill-adviced by any professional gambler, or player,  on this forum to even remotely listen to any of your ideas and conclusions based on your homemade quasi-math, except the few stories you might provide as entertainment of your casino visits.
To the Mind, nothing is really impossible. It just takes a clear vision and right effort.

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=4)
Using Items: X,o

List has 16 entries.
{X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,o} {X,X,o,X} {X,X,o,o} {X,o,X,X} {X,o,X,o} {X,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X} {o,X,X,o} {o,X,o,X} {o,X,o,o} {o,o,X,X} {o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o}

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=5)
Using Items: X,o

List has 32 entries.
{X,X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,X,o} {X,X,X,o,X} {X,X,X,o,o} {X,X,o,X,X} {X,X,o,X,o} {X,X,o,o,X} {X,X,o,o,o} {X,o,X,X,X} {X,o,X,X,o} {X,o,X,o,X} {X,o,X,o,o} {X,o,o,X,X} {X,o,o,X,o} {X,o,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X,X} {o,X,X,X,o} {o,X,X,o,X} {o,X,X,o,o} {o,X,o,X,X} {o,X,o,X,o} {o,X,o,o,X} {o,X,o,o,o} {o,o,X,X,X} {o,o,X,X,o} {o,o,X,o,X} {o,o,X,o,o} {o,o,o,X,X} {o,o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o,o}

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=6)
Using Items: X,o

List has 64 entries.
{X,X,X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,X,X,o} {X,X,X,X,o,X} {X,X,X,X,o,o} {X,X,X,o,X,X} {X,X,X,o,X,o} {X,X,X,o,o,X} {X,X,X,o,o,o} {X,X,o,X,X,X} {X,X,o,X,X,o} {X,X,o,X,o,X} {X,X,o,X,o,o} {X,X,o,o,X,X} {X,X,o,o,X,o} {X,X,o,o,o,X} {X,X,o,o,o,o} {X,o,X,X,X,X} {X,o,X,X,X,o} {X,o,X,X,o,X} {X,o,X,X,o,o} {X,o,X,o,X,X} {X,o,X,o,X,o} {X,o,X,o,o,X} {X,o,X,o,o,o} {X,o,o,X,X,X} {X,o,o,X,X,o} {X,o,o,X,o,X} {X,o,o,X,o,o} {X,o,o,o,X,X} {X,o,o,o,X,o} {X,o,o,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X,X,X} {o,X,X,X,X,o} {o,X,X,X,o,X} {o,X,X,X,o,o} {o,X,X,o,X,X} {o,X,X,o,X,o} {o,X,X,o,o,X} {o,X,X,o,o,o} {o,X,o,X,X,X} {o,X,o,X,X,o} {o,X,o,X,o,X} {o,X,o,X,o,o} {o,X,o,o,X,X} {o,X,o,o,X,o} {o,X,o,o,o,X} {o,X,o,o,o,o} {o,o,X,X,X,X} {o,o,X,X,X,o} {o,o,X,X,o,X} {o,o,X,X,o,o} {o,o,X,o,X,X} {o,o,X,o,X,o} {o,o,X,o,o,X} {o,o,X,o,o,o} {o,o,o,X,X,X} {o,o,o,X,X,o} {o,o,o,X,o,X} {o,o,o,X,o,o} {o,o,o,o,X,X} {o,o,o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o,o,o}

Offline BEAT-THE-WHEEL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
Thus, for example, if we choose to bet, f2ndlast, for only 6 permutation, hand,
 the loser will be,
XXOOXX, AND OOXXOO

two probability out of ....64, without consideration for 6pay half, or commissions.
Any ideas for mm?