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[ozon]

I put it some time ago, in another topic but no one specifically did not answer, if it may act.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0Jf5tdITQ




Chasing the dragon bonus with card counting certainly is effective.
I wonder if the claim of the counting in the standard baccarat is real and whether we have advantage plaing Player?


  Here is the entire text of the description of the film




Counting cards at baccarat and blackjack with the multipurpose JSTAT Count. A winning card counting strategy/tutorial on how to beat the casinos. EZ Baccarat's Dragon 7 side bet is also revealed.

Casino/Advantage Play consultant Eliot Jacobson did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for the Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1. I upped the ante by including the JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with a side counting of 8/9's and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card (on plus JSTAT Counts) along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional mini/midi baccarat. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminish the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as third card determine many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's,9's and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for Player side as third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are paid 1.1 and not 0.95:1

If used correctly, Las Vegas Strip/Atlantic City/Macau/Indian and other casinos will face a winning strategy which gamblers brings home winnings from the greedy casino gambling industry.

Side counting the 8/9's are just as effective in blackjack as it is in the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet or conventional baccarat. At blackjack, on plus JSTAT Counts with more 8/9's remaining than normal, our double downs will approve on 10/11 and the dealer will bust more often than average. In my opinion, the side counting of 8/9's with the JSTAT Count enhances card counting at blackjack and baccarat to the point of long-term wins.

[AsymBacGuy]

I put it some time ago, in another topic but no one specifically did not answer, if it may act.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0Jf5tdITQ




Chasing the dragon bonus with card counting certainly is effective.
I wonder if the claim of the counting in the standard baccarat is real and whether we have advantage plaing Player?


  Here is the entire text of the description of the film




Counting cards at baccarat and blackjack with the multipurpose JSTAT Count. A winning card counting strategy/tutorial on how to beat the casinos. EZ Baccarat's Dragon 7 side bet is also revealed.

Casino/Advantage Play consultant Eliot Jacobson did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for the Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1. I upped the ante by including the JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with a side counting of 8/9's and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card (on plus JSTAT Counts) along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional mini/midi baccarat. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminish the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as third card determine many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's,9's and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for Player side as third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are paid 1.1 and not 0.95:1
If used correctly, Las Vegas Strip/Atlantic City/Macau/Indian and other casinos will face a winning strategy which gamblers brings home winnings from the greedy casino gambling industry.

Side counting the 8/9's are just as effective in blackjack as it is in the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet or conventional baccarat. At blackjack, on plus JSTAT Counts with more 8/9's remaining than normal, our double downs will approve on 10/11 and the dealer will bust more often than average. In my opinion, the side counting of 8/9's with the JSTAT Count enhances card counting at blackjack and baccarat to the point of long-term wins.

It's correct and I contributed to this statement (in bold my excerpt I wrote on another forum).

as.

[21 Aces]

Then why don't players write the following down as the shoe progresses?

Card # ---->
_____

How Many So Far ---->


For example:

A                    2                   3                   4                    5    6    7    8    9    10    Picture
________________________________________

3 Aces           4 2's              2 3's             6 4's               etc. ----->


One should assume that if counting where leading to sure fire results in baccarat the way that it does in black jack, that players would pursue the approach, right?   I see tracking of Natural 8's and 9's, but there can be a lot of high cards in 3 card draws as well.

[AsymBacGuy]

In addition, a long term study made on intermediate-final portions of the deck particularly rich of Player hands provided an average low density of 8s,9s and ten value cards so confirming in some way the above statement.
Of course there are P rich shoes not following this statement, as many hands had favored the P side just by strings of positive symmetrical hands.

As we well know, an 8 or 9 card more often than not will damage the Player point favoring the Banker hand, so those cards are the worst P enemies.

On the other hand, any third card different to 8/9 given to the Player will improve the P side more often than not, sometimes enticing an "incorrect" Banker standing action.

Naturally the card counting alone cannot give us any substantial edge for many reasons.

as.








 

[AsymBacGuy]

Then why don't players write the following down as the shoe progresses?

Card # ---->
_____

How Many So Far ---->


For example:

A                    2                   3                   4                    5    6    7    8    9    10    Picture
________________________________________

3 Aces           4 2's              2 3's             6 4's               etc. ----->


One should assume that if counting where leading to sure fire results in baccarat the way that it does in black jack, that players would pursue the approach, right?   I see tracking of Natural 8's and 9's, but there can be a lot of high cards in 3 card draws as well.

Yep, but along with few 8s and 9s we need a shortage of ten value cards.

In a nutshell, let's say that at baccarat and assuming we only want to bet Player side, high cards are losing cards and small cards are winning ones.
In a sense it's the right opposite way of thinking of blackjack.

as.   

[21 Aces]

Should be this - lol:

For example:

A                    2                   3                   4                    5    6    7    8    9    10/ Picture
________________________________________

3 Aces           4 2's              2 3's             6 4's               etc. ----->

[Eight Iron]

Card counting a Baccarat shoe will favor the Banker 90% of the time.  Why bother?

The game is symmetrical, meaning no combination of cards massively favors one side over the other.

Removing 2,3,4 and 5's favors Banker.

Removing 8,9,10 and paints favors Player. 

Removing 6,7 and Aces has no effect.

A hand of 10,8 vs. 10,9 would theoretically favor Player for the next hand, but the effect of removing these cards is so small as to be insignificant.

You can get an idea of which side is favored only after the first card is dealt.  Which is no help at all.

For example, if the first card dealt (to Player of course) is a Ten, then Banker has a 5.5% advantage of winning the hand.

If the first card dealt is a 6, then Player has a 0.7% chance of winning the hand.

The best rule of thumb, if you are counting, is to bet Banker every hand and sit out the next hand any time the previous hand did not include a 7,8, or 9.

[roversi13]

you mean.......play Banker if the previous hand did not include 8,9,10.

IMHO all these criteria are useless.
The effect on Banker and Player is too limited,as it's demonstrated by several studies and simulations in this area.
I'm much more confident in patterns and statistics:after 4 P,to bet that the following serie of P won't be of 4 or similar,much more effective on B

[alrelax]

The criteria is 100% junk, plain and simple, worthless to wager with or on.  I have witnessed countless hands with and without those cards, a presence of certain numbers in a previous hand or not---mean zero-zip. 

It would most definitely if you needed to win with a certain higher point total-maybe, but not the way baccarat can win with a 1 over zero or a 4 over a 5.  Means nothing. 

People get confused and sucked in because something said or cited will win for a certain amount of times, then they or another attempt to apply universally to all hands or maybe they feel better when they add words like 'majority' or 'most times', etc.

[AlCapone]

Then why don't players write the following down as the shoe progresses?

Card # ---->
_____

How Many So Far ---->


For example:

A                    2                   3                   4                    5    6    7    8    9    10    Picture
________________________________________

3 Aces           4 2's              2 3's             6 4's               etc. ----->


One should assume that if counting where leading to sure fire results in baccarat the way that it does in black jack, that players would pursue the approach, right?   I see tracking of Natural 8's and 9's, but there can be a lot of high cards in 3 card draws as well.

Nice!

[Eight Iron]

you mean.......play Banker if the previous hand did not include 8,9,10.

The reason for not betting Banker for the next hand is that since no 7,8 or 9 was included in the previous hand, there is a greater chance that one of those cards could be the first card dealt in the next hand.

Although removing 8's and 9's favors Player, the probability of Player winning the hand if one of those cards is dealt first improves considerably.

Removing the 7's has no effect, but when it is dealt first, Player is favored to win the hand.

If the first card dealt is a 7, Player has a 7.4% advantage.

If the first card dealt is an 8, Player has a 17.3% advantage.

If the first card dealt is a 9, Player has a 21.5% advantage.

[21 Aces]

I always look at score differentials.  What say you?   

Ever notice that in a long Bank Dragon or long Player Dragon the losing side tends to just lay down/ draw low?  Winning for the winning side looks so easy because every starting pair for the losing side is relatively stuff and third cards draws just fail.  Whatever it takes to win, the losing side can not do.  This results in 7, 9, 13, 17, 20 in a row for one side.

So....
- Even on shorter streaks one can see this.
- One can also see a lot of Natural wins or 3rd card draws.
- 9 vs. 8, 8 vs. 7, 7 vs. 6 and certain ties are often warnings.  Or one side is winning, but the losing side still scores very high (6, 7, .

[alrelax]

I always look at score differentials.  What say you?   

Ever notice that in a long Bank Dragon or long Player Dragon the losing side tends to just lay down/ draw low?  Winning for the winning side looks so easy because every starting pair for the losing side is relatively stuff and third cards draws just fail.  Whatever it takes to win, the losing side can not do.  This results in 7, 9, 13, 17, 20 in a row for one side.

So....
- Even on shorter streaks one can see this.
- One can also see a lot of Natural wins or 3rd card draws.
- 9 vs. 8, 8 vs. 7, 7 vs. 6 and certain ties are often warnings.  Or one side is winning, but the losing side still scores very high (6, 7, .

Can go either way, cannot determine what to wager on by draws.  Last night played 2 shoes.  For the first half of the first shoe, If there was a 3 card draw for both the players and the bankers, the players would almost every single time build out a higher score and almost every time out of those, won the hand.  If it was a 3rd card draw only for the Banker, almost every time the Banker could not improve enough to win and usually reduced.  However, the second half of the shoe was almost the opposite for some time.  Then it was all naturals or 6's or better and almost every hand was only a 4 card draw total.

Next shoe was again, the opposite.  For all the 6 card draws, almost every other one was reducing one side to 0-1 or 2 and the other side would just prevail with one or 2 over the side that was reduced.  And in all reality, the side that was reduced was the best looking side to wager on, hands down. 

No Fortune 7's in those two shoes or for 5 consecutive shoes prior to those 2 shoes I played.  3 and 4 ties max for each shoe as well. 

Anything and every thing happens.  I personally can not see any indication to wager a side with advantage based on those types of circumstances you mentioned.

[21 Aces]

Should be: .... but the losing side still scores very high (6, 7, EIGHT).


Each shoe may have a tendency on things and on a trailing basis.   One could look at the last 5-10 hands or so.  In a shoe, there are often shifts of power where one side keeps setting up with what it takes to win.

For example, last night there was a section where out of 5 or so Player wins it was Natural 9 or 3 card 9.

[alrelax]

No advantage to counting, you can know exactly what is left (and there is a great possibility you can---write it down right there in front of you--the casino personnel do not care--will not stop you, etc.)  It will not do you any good because you do not know the order, large cards and well as small cards as well as no value cards, can all each hurt you or help you---depending on what side you are wagering on.  Unlike B.J. there is not an optional draw, so once you are wagered, knowing a count or not, means squat.

There is a slight possibility, very slight, so slight the casino does not even care, about a count reference Fortune 7's.  Still far from being able to out the casino's lights out, safe to say it really cannot be capitalized on with uniformity. 

So count all you want until you get a headache over it, if it was a threat the game would be pulled.