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Offline NathanDetroit
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Re: Do you have $2,000 dollars I can borrow? 

« Reply #6 on: Today at 01:20:35 pm »

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I would not trust anyone who is  applying the martingale or a similar negative progression attempting to recover losses. They are losers.


How often do I read/ hear  " " recovery stage". translation  : chasing losses.____________________________________________________________________________________


Yes indeed.  Absolute and seen it last night, big time. 

Each shoe and most certainly, even broke down further, groups/sections of hands, should be viewed a fresh and new--no relationship to your past trip events, wins or losses.  I do know, a lot of players keep a tab of their running losses, especially for the day or the previous day---week, etc.

I do think, most players do consistently attempt to recoup their previous losses with their current play.

IMO, that is their huge mistake, the pressure--the 'unclear' way of thinking and the impatience to get even, all are negative and stressful factors.  While no one likes to lose of course, losing does happen.  And as N. Detroit says, the progression factor employed in this case/event will usually lead to the players self-proclaimed, recovery stage. 


As I witnessed last night, the hard headed players repeatedly playing for the cut, no matter what.  This is not about the cut alone.  This is about playing for what the shoe is producing and progressions. 

So yesterday, a guy that is at one of the places I go to regularly, he changes $4,500.00.  Mostly black and gets as always, about $500 in red and green.  Most of the time he wagers $10 to $100 and upon his triggers, which appear to be almost always, the cut or falling off of something. 

Shoe starts and goes something like this:

T-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P
P     P    P-B        P-B-P    P-B           B
                         P                           T
                         P                           B
                         P                           T
                         PPP                        BBTTB

While I do admit, 1's and 2's and an occasional 3, is probably about the hardest shoe to play, unless you are just parlaying one side and one side only and trying for that cut, this shoe starts off nasty. So, when the shoe gets to the 8 Players in a row, the guy throws out 5 black and some green and red on the Banker, right about $1k wager, on the wager after 2 Players were out and figured for the cut.  Lose.  He throws up his second wager on that with $1,500.  Lose.  He then throws up his fourth wager of $2,000 (table max) on Banker and once again, lose.  He buys back in with $5k additional.  He wagers another $2,000 on Banker, again lose.  Throws up another $2,000 on the Banker and again, lose.  He is now into his wagering at least $8.5k if not $9k.  Stops wagering on it.  When it falls off and goes to Banker, the guy already bought back in and starts wagering after the 2nd Banker for the Player.  Loses the first wager because of the 3rd Banker but wins the next on the return to the Player. He started wagering smaller to attempt to recoup his lost funds.

When the shoe got to the Banker with the 4 ties and the 6 Bankers, everyone was wagering heavy on the Players due to the first 2 ties being 9-9 and 8-8 ties, so their reasoning's was Players attempting to come back out strong rubbish, etc.

I throw this out here for an example of the previous talk on the board about "Wagering what the shoe is producing".  For example, on the Players first run of 8 repeats.  Wager on the Player until it falls off after it made the 3rd one, there is when 4 and lose 1.  Then when it went to 6 Bankers and 4 Ties, follow what it produced.     

And, before some of you change around what I am saying, I am saying play with it--rather then against it when the events change up--rather then attempting to wager on what you want based on the previous or the 100% revert to cut OR repeat.  Likewise, chop-chop or doubles, wager with it rather then against it. 

Not talking about the VooDoo or the magical guessing with prolonging trends/bias', etc.  I am talking about, going with the flow, especially when the shoe just changed up and started something different.

The time to rake in the winnings, is when a player can identify something and then, 'ride with it'.  Does not matter what that is, any bias, trend, or even cut.  But the key to it, is when it is not a losing parlay and parlaying and parlaying (or progressions) until you recoup your previous losses.  Previous losses have no place in your instant game, it will cloud your mind and absolutely ruin your game. 

I still say, unless you are only trying for one or two units and then walk, religiously no matter what, playing with the progression/parlay on one side or the other, with blind wagering, will usually have a detrimental effect on your bankroll.