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[HunchBacShrimp]

Didn't want to continue off topic in the other thread. And was compelled to make some input regarding streak as I am predominantly an FLD bettor.

I accept there is no (substantial) statistical difference in the occurrences of simple streaks (BBBBBBBBB) and convoluted streaks (BBPBBPBBP). However, I do feel there is a significant difference between the two. The standard streak of 9 B is not only more easily recognizable, but consists of only one decision repeating itself. The repeating 2-1 pattern of BBPBBPBBP is much less recognized as a streak of 9 than it is recognized as B doubling three times in a row, and P singling three times in a row and really consists of 3 decisions repeating themselves as opposed to one.

When I see BBBBBB, I don't see two three streaks of B, nor do I see one repeated event of BBB. I see a streak of six.

I'm not going to say what you really have here in BBPBBPBBP are two separate types of streaks each of a length of three. But I am going to say they are very nearly always recognized and considered as such. You stretch this out to BBPBBPBBPBBPBBPBBP and it should be universally recognized as a streak of BBP. Still most likely considered a streak of 6 and not 18. Obviously BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB is without a doubt never interpreted as anything except a streak with a length of 18.

I only need one repeated event BB, to signify that I might be on a streak. It could be argued that BB is also only one repeated event that signifies I might be on a streak of BBP. BUT, I don't need a third decision to prove it. The BBP bettor does. My streak may never go past the 2hole, yet it is still a streak. The BBP streak never developed, and in essence, never really was a streak, not even a streak of 2.

Now we can dramatically extrapolate this perspective and say that not just any, but every combination of B and P is a streak of whatever length you desire.

BBBPBPPPBPBPBPBPPBBBPBPBPPPBPBPBBPBPBPBPBPPPPPBPBPPPPBBBBPPPB is a streak of remarkable length, how did everyone miss it? The obvious answer is because it is too convoluted, you could have patterns inside your pattern.

The 'frequency of occurrence' of any and every combination of 9 decisions is (very nearly) exactly the same.

I am confident Lung Yeh's remark that a streak of 17 should be an unmissed opportunity to take the casino to the cleaners was based upon 1. His style of play and 2. The blatant display of an easily recognizable trend even the most novice of gamblers should recognize, and more importantly, take a single chance on. Pick a number and get on it. My number is 7.

I will take a stong position and say only an absolute fool would continue to bet against a streak and lose 17 times, and a bigger fool would start at 11 or 12 and relentlessly bet against its continuation until it ruined them. I will say picking a number, even 7, and betting against it a small number of times is acceptable. Not very fruitful as only a single won bet, and certainly will NEVER allow them to easily make bets that yield them a very large amount of wins in a row. After only 3 of which you are free to press and parlay with an unconflicted conscience until your bets are bucking up against the table max.

Now betting against the streak wasn't part of the original conversation I was responding too. I got a little side tracked there, back on topic.....

Streaks of great lengths are not a myth. And streaks of the same single repeated event are the easiest to notice and the easiest to bet on. What has a 1 in 130,000 chance of occurring WILL occur. And Murphy says if you continue to boldly bet against it, you will see it in less than 130,000 chances. You can only lose one bet taking a single chance that this might be the Monster Dragon. And if you find yourself sitting there watching 17 repeated events go by and you haven't made a single bet with it, well, you can pat yourself on the back for having extreme discipline, but you might as well go ahead and do it on your way out of the casino never to return again.

If you cannot or will not capitalize on the easiest streak possible, you will never be able to capitalize on any streak of even the slightest less recognizable pattern. Such as the BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPB. I will state one exception, and one exception only. And that is if you are specifically looking for a particular streak, as in if you are an OLD bettor, or constantly on the hunt for 2x2's etc. Though, I will still fault you for not taking a chance on the most recognizable streak possible.

HBS

[Garfield]

Yup agree. But have seen the other ways around. Sometimes the location of streaks also influence players.

If the streaks happened in the early stage of shoe, let's say from the beginning, I mostly see the majority bet that the streaks will continue. Only a few will change side after 6 or 7 streaks.

But, when it happened in the middle or end phase of the shoe, where the previous p-b outcome never went pass 3, I am pretty sure the table will split in two sides. Follower and cutter. And after it reached 6-7, one or more cutter will switch side, the rest will bet even bigger. And the funny thing is some follower will also change side.

The event was the same. X or XX streaks of p/b. But the location affect how player's reaction.

Funny. I think it all pshycological things. I heard Casino master this field very much.

[Gizmotron]

Here's how the prepared mind deals with all this. Train yourself to expect to see never before seen patterns and to act quickly to them. That includes recognizable ones too. Treat all trend phenomenon the same. Look for indications of symbolism created by any over all characteristic that applies to the trends you are seeing, the Global Effect. A dominance of series can keep up even if the P & B oscillates according to a consistent pattern in the global effect. Hammer the global effect trend when it is obvious. It's not a trend ender. It's a trend continuer. It's a camouflaged dragon. Kill it. "We are knights on a grail quest." - The Da Vinci Code.

[AsymBacGuy]

You stretch this out to BBPBBPBBPBBPBBPBBP and it should be universally recognized as a streak of BBP. Still most likely considered a streak of 6 and not 18. Obviously BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB is without a doubt never interpreted as anything except a streak with a length of 18.

HBS

Hi HBS.
There are other ways to consider streaks on the  BBPBBPBBPBBPBBPBBP sequence.

A streak of 5 P singles;
A streak of 6 B runs;
A streak of 6 B doubles.

Cutting down the first B "signal" appearance will again get a splitted 17 sequence, the same of what happens on the (B)BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB streak.
Of course for many players it's easier to recognize the last sequence, so you are right. 

as. 

[Jimske]

Hi HBS.
There are other ways to consider streaks on the  BBPBBPBBPBBPBBPBBP sequence.

A streak of 5 P singles;
A streak of 6 B runs;
A streak of 6 B doubles.

Cutting down the first B "signal" appearance will again get a splitted 17 sequence, the same of what happens on the (B)BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB streak.
Of course for many players it's easier to recognize the last sequence, so you are right. 

as.

Agreed.  Yes, believe it or not we are in agreement on this.  Slice it any way you want.  Certain streaks are easier to see but an astute player can pick one and play it.  I think the Gr8 one would pick this kind of thing up as he doesn't bet every hand.  I will as well on occasion if I am not doing well, not often though.  Reason is if I am not doing well I will pause and look for some common "theme."

[AsymBacGuy]

Agreed.  Yes, believe it or not we are in agreement on this.  Slice it any way you want.  Certain streaks are easier to see but an astute player can pick one and play it.  I think the Gr8 one would pick this kind of thing up as he doesn't bet every hand.  I will as well on occasion if I am not doing well, not often though.  Reason is if I am not doing well I will pause and look for some common "theme."

That's good we have some common points of view. 

Theorically baccarat always provides some streaks, the 1-3-2-4-1-3-2-4 sequence is an example where the 99% of the common players will lose money.
That's very bad: without going too deeply this is just a single-3 streak-single-3 streak pattern.
Or a perfect four-pace same outcome apparition, or an isolated double between two superior streaks, or isolated 2+ streaks and so on.

Human mind tends to mostly consider simple geometrical patterns so endorsing the idea that some sequences are positive, the rest being negative.
And the same chance long streak is the simplest example to look for.

as. 
   

 

[Jimske]

If you cannot or will not capitalize on the easiest streak possible, you will never be able to capitalize on any streak of even the slightest less recognizable pattern. Such as the BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPB. I will state one exception, and one exception only. And that is if you are specifically looking for a particular streak, as in if you are an OLD bettor, or constantly on the hunt for 2x2's etc. Though, I will still fault you for not taking a chance on the most recognizable streak possible.

HBS

I'm going to disagree with a caveat since getting a lot out of a long run largely depends on how one did on the first part of that run.  These runs are so infrequent that most will end and few will have the opportunity to exploit them.  So it's just as easy to exploit a less recognized pattern.

Here's why.  Unless one just happens to get some profit from the earlier run to the tune of 3 or 4 won bets from a XYYYY 4 IAR there may not be a trend reason to ALWAYS bet for the fifth Y and continue if win.  Of course if a player is ALWAYS going to bet for a 4 IAR to go more until lose this is just another 50-50 proposition and itlr will not win his up as he wins next bet enough times to compensate for the many losses.  There are umpteen more 4 IAR than whatever 17 IAR.

The other problem is where was our profit after the 4 IAR.  Again, unless you just happen to be betting FLD one might easily miss several of them or all of them!  So where do you go after say winning the last 2 bets of the 4 IAR or missing all of them?  Most players will make some MM bet and maybe bet less than the last win to lock up a profit or maybe bump up a just a bit.  Either way.  See what I'm getting at?

So yeah, I could see myself watching a 17 IAR go by.  Someone said there was a 23 B IAR a few weeks ago but most I've seen in a loooong time is a 12 IAR.  Frankly, I win 8 or 9 IAR way more often as a matter of course regardless of the pattern than I see even a 10+streak IAR!  Why shouldn't I begin a Fibonacci, for example, after every 2 W IAR?  Because it is a 50-50 proposition and they'll be way more losing that third bet, 4th bet, fifth bet, etc. than getting that 12+ IAR or whatever.

Sorry this getting kind of long.  So IMO it is just as easy getting a win from a less "visible" pattern than the obvious one.  IMO one will profit just as much if decide to chase 2222..... after the first 2 hits (whether you win them or not) of if you decide to chase a 4 IAR until lose hoping for that dragon.

Today: PPP BBB PPP B P  I happened NOT to be on the first 3 IAR cause I was betting chop so only got 1 unit.  But I W 8 and lost 3 out of the bunch.  If the 3's kept going I would have been on all of them.  Similar thing happened with the 1212123.  Got 9 IAR but only because my placement luckily grabbed all of them after losing the first.

Well for me anyway there are a lot more short run patterns to exploit than hoping for that long Dragon.  But, if it comes I hope I'm on it! 

[AsymBacGuy]

I'm going to disagree with a caveat since getting a lot out of a long run largely depends on how one did on the first part of that run.  These runs are so infrequent that most will end and few will have the opportunity to exploit them.  So it's just as easy to exploit a less recognized pattern.

I agree.

Per every 12, 15 or even 20 B or P consecutive streak, you'll have the same proportional amount of losing patterns.

As long term consistent winners we should focus about the probability to get some "short" winning patterns and once we have locked a given profit we could try to ride the possible positive wave (and we know that most of the times we won't succeed).
The opposite situation, that is trying to get an end to a long losing sequence, shouldn't be considered at all.
In this istance we're not locking anything, we're just trying to get ONE possible win, the best situation casinos will aim for (knowing that such purposes will be placed by strong negative progressions).

Again everything will be proportionally placed, but I'd be more comfortable to try to win the most likely short occurences the game will provide and not relying upon the distant probabilities to get long multiple winnings.

Per every, let's say, 17 WIAR searched streak I'll get a higher number of negative patterns as the game is EV-.

as.   
 

[Garfield]

The risk is the initial bet only. And then after a win, is up to you. Double it everytime, keep some for profit, or else. How you plan after a win will affect the result you have when the streaks / pattern end.