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[alrelax]

Vindication...
   Absolution...
      Benediction...

It is not easy to obtain in gambling, especially if you do it every day, day in and day out for a living or should I say an attempted living?  However, there is something I found called 'Convergence' and because of 'Asym' and a recent thread of his, I thought this out a bit. 

Convergence of the shoe events, that I exploited 100%  (I will spell out the best of what I mean: What does to converge mean?  "To tend to a common result, conclusion, etc. Mathematics. (of a sequence) to have values eventually arbitrarily close to some number; to have a finite limit. (of an infinite series) to have a finite sum; to have a sequence of partial sums that, 'converges'.")
Classic, fruits falling from the tree, ripe, juicy, beautiful fruit---right there for the picking and eating.  Get that warm and buzzing tingling feel in your stomach! 

There with open arms, such as when there are 10 or so Bankers repeating itself with 3 Fortune 7's within those 10 and the whole table is losing by reciting their multiple reasons for wagering on the Player Side heavy and repeatedly. 

But the problem comes when a player, such as me, you, and everyone else, continuously believes that what just came is the holy grail or will continue with future upcoming events/shoe presentments of the same type. 

Oh, don't take that the wrong way or in a negative way, it most certainly will.  Just usually not in the same way and when it does come around, it will come around after more often not, than what it actually does.  Please re-read that and understand what I am saying, because it is years of experience rolled up into two sentences that are underlined.

Here is two examples (Picture posted as an attachment), that I have posted in the past.  Both shoes have runs of 10 Bankers with 3 F'7's within each one, not by a long shot the 'once in a lifetime shoe', but not an every night type of happening as well.  Easily a $10,000.00 to $20,000.00 event when it does.  When it hits, the event has to be recognized as an opportunity and once finished, it also has to be recognized once again as exactly that, finished. 

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[alrelax]

Some old thoughts of mine.  But many fit right along within the game of baccarat.  Related to what I brought up in the above posting, IMO

Here we go....Spot On!, I know it and you do too..................... 

Magical Thinking.  Some might say, Superstitious Thinking, but I like the title 'Magical Thinking', kind of like a wizard with powers of the wand!!! 

Making causal connections or correlations between two events not based on logic or evidence, but primarily based on superstition or thought(s) or desires for something tangible to be. Magical thinking often causes one to experience irrational fear or some form of being scared of something that might come forward having certain acts or containing certain thoughts because they assume a correlation with their acts and threatening calamities. 

Example:  A preacher gets up in his church in a farming community that is experiencing drought conditions.  Gives a huge and detailed agenda for the lord to let it rain and rain plentiful to help the good people of his parish.  It rains.  Praise the gods!  Pass the plate around, I am good for another year.  But seriously, it would have rained anyway no matter if that sermon was given or not.

Suggesting that appealing to the gods for rain via prayer or say a rain dance (the Indians) is just the kind of thing crazy enough to get you in a larger position within the community, the church, an organization or a club, etc.  People love to believe someone actually has magical powers.  But there is absolutely no logical reason or evidence to support the claim that appealing to the gods or a higher power will make it rain.

Kind of the same when a player stacks it up for two winning wagers say, B-B, and then 12 more B followed for a streak of 14 and he pulled down and bankrolled his 9 subsequent wins.  He would announce, proudly and loudly, "I knew it was going to be a streak of at least a dozen or better, because of 'so and so' just look at this"... then he points to where he believed some VooDoo about a cut or two or some winning or losing numbers just prior to that streak of 14, etc.

Here is another one.  Being from NYC, never quite understood this but it is absolutely 100% true. 

"I refuse to stay on the 13th floor of any hotel because it is bad luck.  However, I am okay with staying on the 14th floor because it is titled the 14th floor even though it is really the 13th floor but nothing bad can happen because it is really the 14th floor".

This demonstrates the kind of magical thinking that so many people in this country engage in and actually adjust their living agenda to!  According to Dilip Rangnekar of the huge elevator company 'Otis Elevators' it is estimated 85% of buildings with elevators did not have a floor numbered 13.  There is zero evidence that the number 13 has any property that causes bad luck, of course, it is the superstitious mind that connects that number with bad luck.

The same as at the old school big baccarat tables, there was never a number 13 or a number 4, which 4 is bad luck in Asia signifying death.

And, here is another one.

"I knew I should have helped that old lady across the road.  Because I didn't, I have been having bad karma all day.  Better not go to the casino tonight, I will probably just lose that that will be the reason why".

This describes how one believes that they deserve bad fortune, will most likely experience it due to the confirmation bias and other self-fulfilling prophecy, like behavior.  Yet there is no logical or rational basis behind the concept of karma.  Tons of people preach good karma for some commercial reason to sell some idea, get you to buy something of theirs or perhaps to get you to subscribe to their way of thinking for one reason or another, nothing to actually do with any tangible thing that could produce bad or good karma.

If you can empirically prove your magic, then you can use your magic to reason.  But it cannot be proven on any regular basis because it (magic/karma/fortune) is intangible and cannot be a real item because it is labeled by such under whatever suits those seeking to add a bit of spice to an event, happening, windfall or anything of the like.  And one final thought, say I was on the Banker and hit those14 Banks in a row with a $1,000.00 unit on the last 9 winning decisions. And someone else was wagering the cut each and every time with an equal or greater amount of money.  Great Karma for me and bad karma for them???  Something so many believe in and yet---can't be proven or regulated in anyway whatsoever. And, it is only 'magical' when a positive outcome comes about, otherwise nothing is said.

Magical thinking may be comforting at times, but reality is always what's true.

[AsymBacGuy]

I think that baccarat players must play probabilities whatever they could be considered in the given shoe.

Probabilities run in ranges and not just in one hand shot, such thing is just a losers' feature.

Along the way, no human instinct could overwhelm the power of math and statistics. this is just a fallacy.

It needs a lot of study and experience to read what are the real good opportunities to bet following probabilities and a fair portion of shoes won't accomplish that.

Imo we do not want to guess anything, we do want to play probabilities.

There's no way one player could win every shoe dealt, yet 99.99% of players keep betting every shoe dealt.

Show me one bac player not playing every shoe dealt and I'll be more prone to say he/she's a long term winner.

as.