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[Jimske]

Hope you don't mind Jimske, as you posted your bet selection over a BacLabs, so assume it was no secret even if that forum is no longer.

What you posted for those that may missed.



This may sound complicated to some but it is simple for me. My "Base Mode" is I wait 1 hand at start of shoe and then bet FLD until lose 2IAR then bet OLD until lose 2IAR then go back to FLD. My theory is since 2+ repeats and 1+ chops have the greatest occurrence I can win many shoes without doing a thing more. The only problem is those dern solo singles (1IAR; Alternate 2's, A2's). When that happens I lose 3 or more in a row. At the beginning of the shoe if I lose 2IAR I mostly will stop and see what the chops do and try to outguess them. There are shoes where a lot of A2's exist so I try to handle those differently.

So anyway I do that until some bias pops up and I instead bet the strength of the shoe. Strengths of the shoe could be side dominance (bet straight down one side), extreme chop (bet OLD), extreme streak (in which case just FLD), extreme 2's (bet OTBL). That way I will win EVERY shoe that has any kind of strong bias. If the shoe has an extreme bias I will win a lot of units. That's why I like the placement.

I have a couple other bets that I like that go along with this. I like the "Longest Gone" (LG) bet where I will not bet more than a run (chop or streak) has gone before. Lots of shoes never see more than a 4 or 5 IAR. Some never see more than a 3IAR. Whether I NB here or bet it to stop depends on MM. Another bet I like is "Longer Still" (LS). If I am not already in the Base Mode and a run goes longer than ever before I may bet for the run to continue and stay on it until I lose.

That's about it. I could go into more detail about certain bet choices. They may change from shoe to shoe depending on other "mitigating" dominating factors. Rarely takes me more than a second to place a bet. Normally I am the first on the table to bet. I can and do play alone and can get through a shoe pretty quick since I bet nearly every hand.

Hope that explains it pretty well.

Good.  Thanks for posting that.  Yeah that's my basic go to trend method which I refer to as my "Stupid Follow Method."  It is simple and has a lot of merit to follow the shoe.  I achieved a 52. something win rate over 7200 hands using that.  (Can't find the file this morning.  It's around here somewhere.)  Maybe some of you copied that and can post it.

So you see it's very subjective but IS based on the shoe bias to continue.  The betting is flat until I lose some then I try to get back to even or the previous high with a few 2 unit bets placed in "strong" areas - read stuff that seems to be happening a lot like a lot of 2's or maybe 1's not going far or whatever.  The rest is what I call MM even though apparently it's NOT MM according to some strict definition.

However - sorry to inform but I have actually stopped playing live in pursuit of a totally mechanical method and have tweaked that method.  (I don't play much in summer anyway - got more fun things to do.)  Why do I change?  Because I hate guessing - makes me nervous!   So yeah what I recently referred to was another 8,770 hands played from over 200 shoes gathered from various sources around the globe and have achieved a similar 52.47%.  It wins betting a prog also but am still working on what kind of betting style suits me.
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Look all.  I'm happy to help when I can but . . . After being flat betted at BJ and before I ever made 1 bet on Bacc I studied Bacc about 4 hours a night EVERY night for about two years.  Since then I have played thousands of live shoes and have spent countless hours considering this or that.  So I don't feel in any way obligated to go over every nuance of my "work."  Besides.  I think most players would just as soon go their own way anyway.

The above is a good start for those who want to study the game, make changes, and play the trend game and I do hope it helps.

Jim

P.S.  It's a guessing game!

[gr8player]

GR8,

"Variance. It can be a bitch." is all you had to say.
That's it.
Quoting me directly and ending that sentence with "to the uninitiated" is an insult. Passive? sure, subtle? not so much, clever? not at all. I find it offensive because it is offensive. If there could have been any doubt, it was dispelled with your follow up sentence of " The knowledgeable player on the other hand can 'play it like a fiddle'. Insinuating I have no knowledge of the game or variance.

Let me ask you this.

Were you "playing it like a fiddle" on your second weekend trip when you went home to the tune of -4u (read Negative $400)?

And no, it is not "'nuff said about that". You can't make a claim of a bet selection (played with your style) that cannot lose 60 out of 100 bets without posting the bet selection. Fact, it can only be considered a baseless boast.

95% of my play is the 1 and 2 hole. You can't tease me like that, its right up my alley, it is my bet selection.

Hello, HBS.

Please forgive the tardy response, but I was in AC the past three days.

Please know that my response to your quote was not a shot at you in any way; a response, nothing more, nothing less.  I wouldn't want you to take it as personally as you obviously had, but I do apologize if you had.  Sorry.

Regarding your "95% of my play is the 1 and 2 hole" comment.....great job!  IMHO, the player that hasn't a valid "answer" for the 1, 2 and 3 holes on their scorecards is the player that will be left in the dark.

In due time I will further expound on my personal opinions regarding some valid points that might assist the player that wishes to improve on their approach to those first three lines.  My approach, in fact, my play, often involves alot of "stopping and starting", awaiting certain traits/trends to appear, and, of course, getting onto them at the earliest opportunity for maximum profitability.

Stay well.

[gr8player]

And no I won't divulge the bet placement.  Some have PM'd me.  Three reasons.  1.  Why should I?   2.  I don't have the time and inclination to teach it, deal with questions and possible criticisms.  3.  I really don't believe if it is used without some stop rules it will prove to be a winner.

Hello, Jimske.

Valid reasons, all.  Our personal bet selections processes are rather "near and dear" to us all and, well, "personal".

But your #3 is the most valid of all, no doubt of it....."without some stop rules it mightn't prove a winner".  Correct.  It's already been proven time and time again that there exists no mechanical bet placement that'll overcome the house edge; so it then becomes mandatory for the actual player, himself, the "tweak" their preferred bet placement strategy into profitability, via both "start and stop" (read: bet or no-bet) rules and unit-size manipulation.

Stay well.

[Jimske]

Hello, Jimske.

Valid reasons, all.  Our personal bet selections processes are rather "near and dear" to us all and, well, "personal".

But your #3 is the most valid of all, no doubt of it....."without some stop rules it mightn't prove a winner".  Correct.  It's already been proven time and time again that there exists no mechanical bet placement that'll overcome the house edge; so it then becomes mandatory for the actual player, himself, the "tweak" their preferred bet placement strategy into profitability, via both "start and stop" (read: bet or no-bet) rules and unit-size manipulation.

Stay well.

Yeah, but I am still working on my mechanical  placement and as mentioned above have 8,770 bets with a 52.46% win rate.  That's pretty good.  I wonder what the Z factor and risk of ruin is for that number.

Oh, today, a funny thing.  I happened to be going by MoSun this AM and decided to just play one shoe live with this mechanical placement.  Stupid luck someone must love me after all.  +17 units flat  - 40 bets!  I keep all tested shoes in "scorecard format" and keep a ledger of each win which I then graph.  How many times have I got close to that in  a shoe for 8,770 bets?  Zilch, nada, zero!   

[gr8player]

Your default placement is FTL, isn't it?  Must've caught a few runs, I suppose.

Great job, nice win.

We needn't apologize for the easy ones, as Goodness knows, there's plenty of difficult ones to offset them.

Take care.

[HunchBacShrimp]

Hello, HBS.

Please forgive the tardy response, but I was in AC the past three days.

Please know that my response to your quote was not a shot at you in any way; a response, nothing more, nothing less.  I wouldn't want you to take it as personally as you obviously had, but I do apologize if you had.  Sorry.

Regarding your "95% of my play is the 1 and 2 hole" comment.....great job!  IMHO, the player that hasn't a valid "answer" for the 1, 2 and 3 holes on their scorecards is the player that will be left in the dark.

In due time I will further expound on my personal opinions regarding some valid points that might assist the player that wishes to improve on their approach to those first three lines.  My approach, in fact, my play, often involves alot of "stopping and starting", awaiting certain traits/trends to appear, and, of course, getting onto them at the earliest opportunity for maximum profitability.

Stay well.

GR8,

I hope your trip to AC went well. This is number 4 I think.

Yeah, I can be a little thin skinned at times, and perhaps react a bit strongly. Sorry for that little bite.

Plenty of action in the 1 and 2 hole in my opinion. I look forward to what you may have to offer regarding those bet selections. It may clean up my play a bit.

I'm really leery of betting against a streak. Even a small one. Pitboss is a popular method, but I usually will only make just one bet for a streak of two to stay a two and I'm done 'till the next double. As for getting on the streak. Call me crazy, but I wait for a streak of 7 and then make a multiple unit bet that it goes to 8, back off a unit or two and then ride the rest of it knowing one day it will be the MONSTER streak.

Not often I see a streak of 7. So I don't make the bet often. I'm not drowning in lost units to an over abundance of 7 streaks. 

[Jimske]

Your default placement is FTL, isn't it?  Must've caught a few runs, I suppose.

No, FTL not a default. A default implies more than one bet placement.  I using a strict mechanical placement.  The statistic I quoted comes from that.  So I don't have a default as such.

By runs you mean repeats of P and B?  I won 5 IAR 3 times and 4 IAR 1 time in that shoe which doesn't happen often.  Only one was on a longer repeat.  I don't need a long repeat or chop to win a bunch in a row.
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Anyhow consider that a 12 IAR is no different than 6 2's IAR or 4 3's IAR, etc.  They all ocurr at the same frequency.  So to chase a long run or chop won't give better results than chasing a pattern of say 3 to go 4 times IAR or a 3-1 pattern to go 3 Times IAR. etc.