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[alrelax]

Something I have definitively defined in my own baccarat handbook of playing is, "Diminishing Probability".  I also call it 'unraveling' what has happened.  So many players, so many countless times will either wager with the streaks/chops or against them.  And of course, the newer way of playing I have talked about lately, is the players constantly wagering for the cut, wagering against the streak or repeat and then when it does cut-they wager for the repeat.  Always the opposite of the result, not the banker or player--hope you understand because that is really what the majority are doing. 

You have to look at the 1st half versus the 2nd half or the 'Sections' as I have also very explicitly defined in other threads, that is the ONLY way you can apply 'diminishing probability' to the shoe and wager on it.

The larger a trend/bias last, the less likely it becomes favorable to continue.  The trend/bias becomes depleted and simply ceases the domination of whatever it was creating and happened.  (So many will blast this and say, it is impossible to predict.  However, that is not what this does, this will allow yourself to view what will ultimately happen, as you will not have 70 Bankers and 11 Players or say 60 Bankers and 16 Players, when the Bankers get to 30 Bankers and 11 Players for example.)

Impending changes to the positive momentum.  The time to notice them and adhere to them (wager with them) is when they start, don't be amazed when you wager with the previous or current bias and then it straightened out and changed back to the classical 'normal' or no trend/bias. 

That is just an example.  It is very real and it is very workable if you truly have an open mind and stop all the wagering theory of pre-set wagers.  This is going with the shoe rather than against it or praying it keeps doing something. 

[alrelax]

The problem with almost 100% of the players that believe they can excel at baccarat, is they only seek out a 'pre conceived bet placement method' that they will employ each and every time. 

Meaning, they only desire and will learn about a system or a pre-conceived bet placement method to wager, like bet the opposite of whatever is less or more in the past 8 hands or whatever number or, they will believe after every 2 or 3 in a row repeating the next hand will cut, etc., etc.  Every single bet placement method will lose as much or more than it wins.

Once you understand how the shoes will match or not match what has happened and not happened, then you will be on your way to winning. 

It takes playing, it takes reading, it takes asking questions, it takes a tremendous amount of time overall. 

[Wewin2222]

Alrelax, if you play Baccarat long enough and I'm sure you have, you have to come up with something that works for you the player. I was have lunch with a Asian friend of mine and he was buying which he tends to always do not sure why but anyway I digress. I asked him a simple question, keep in mind this man has been a steady Baccarat Player going on 30 years. I asked him when the shoe does 3 Bankers in a row how do you know if it is going to break or continue to run. Answer: I don't know, nobody know's, we are all the same. I play my own style of Baccarat which is a Multii System with card reading mixed into my game. I have spent more hours studying this game than I care to admit, yes I have lost sleep, and I have a few more gray hairs. I do like the hit and run method. I have some very strong feelings and thoughts about Baccarat but I want get into them right now. I did want to mention before I close, People that I would consider good players have spent time studying and playing the game and in general they follow what is happening in the shoe.  I will asked a rhetorical question, what is the definition of a good baccarat player, would it be a player that wins the most hands or leaves with the most money? Have a good day Sir!!

Wewin2222

[Ted009]

Your Asian friend is a good man. I can feel his good heart.

I learned through all these years that baccarat is also a mind game. One of our good members, Lungyeh, has spelled out the "Peace and Calm" when we play the game. Gosh, in retrospect, I feel ashamed in looking back about my mistakes at the table, LOL.
To me a good player is a consistent winner who never talks much and has the most disciplines and patience. He is calmly playing and he knows what he is doing at the table. I don't admire those who wins big and then loses all the next day but I do admire the consistent winner. Baccarat is a tough game to beat and it has to do with the peace and calm attitude as well, that is, the mind game. Just my two cent..

quote author=Wewin2222 link=topic=7885.msg55309#msg55309 date=1493159983]
Alrelax, if you play Baccarat long enough and I'm sure you have, you have to come up with something that works for you the player. I was have lunch with a Asian friend of mine and he was buying which he tends to always do not sure why but anyway I digress. I asked him a simple question, keep in mind this man has been a steady Baccarat Player going on 30 years. I asked him when the shoe does 3 Bankers in a row how do you know if it is going to break or continue to run. Answer: I don't know, nobody know's, we are all the same. I play my own style of Baccarat which is a Multii System with card reading mixed into my game. I have spent more hours studying this game than I care to admit, yes I have lost sleep, and I have a few more gray hairs. I do like the hit and run method. I have some very strong feelings and thoughts about Baccarat but I want get into them right now. I did want to mention before I close, People that I would consider good players have spent time studying and playing the game and in general they follow what is happening in the shoe.  I will asked a rhetorical question, what is the definition of a good baccarat player, would it be a player that wins the most hands or leaves with the most money? Have a good day Sir!!

Wewin2222
[/quote]

[alrelax]

Your Asian friend is a good man. I can feel his good heart.

I learned through all these years that baccarat is also a mind game. One of our good members, Lungyeh, has spelled out the "Peace and Calm" when we play the game. Gosh, in retrospect, I feel ashamed in looking back about my mistakes at the table, LOL.
To me a good player is a consistent winner who never talks much and has the most disciplines and patience. He is calmly playing and he knows what he is doing at the table. I don't admire those who wins big and then loses all the next day but I do admire the consistent winner. Baccarat is a tough game to beat and it has to do with the peace and calm attitude as well, that is, the mind game. Just my two cent..

quote author=Wewin2222 link=topic=7885.msg55309#msg55309 date=1493159983]
Alrelax, if you play Baccarat long enough and I'm sure you have, you have to come up with something that works for you the player. I was have lunch with a Asian friend of mine and he was buying which he tends to always do not sure why but anyway I digress. I asked him a simple question, keep in mind this man has been a steady Baccarat Player going on 30 years. I asked him when the shoe does 3 Bankers in a row how do you know if it is going to break or continue to run. Answer: I don't know, nobody know's, we are all the same. I play my own style of Baccarat which is a Multii System with card reading mixed into my game. I have spent more hours studying this game than I care to admit, yes I have lost sleep, and I have a few more gray hairs. I do like the hit and run method. I have some very strong feelings and thoughts about Baccarat but I want get into them right now. I did want to mention before I close, People that I would consider good players have spent time studying and playing the game and in general they follow what is happening in the shoe.  I will asked a rhetorical question, what is the definition of a good baccarat player, would it be a player that wins the most hands or leaves with the most money? Have a good day Sir!!

Wewin2222

Then I guess we have to get the pit manager to put up a 'no talking' sign at the table, huh?  omg, you are going to hate me when we play together at the bac table!!!

[Ted009]

Forgive my bad English, I meant people who bragged or gloated and claimed to know everything:))


uote author=alrelax

link=topic=7885.msg55302#msg55302 date=1493126616]
Something I have definitively defined in my own baccarat handbook of playing is, "Diminishing Probability".  I also call it 'unraveling' what has happened.  So many players, so many countless times will either wager with the streaks/chops or against them.  And of course, the newer way of playing I have talked about lately, is the players constantly wagering for the cut, wagering against the streak or repeat and then when it does cut-they wager for the repeat.  Always the opposite of the result, not the banker or player--hope you understand because that is really what the majority are doing. 

You have to look at the 1st half versus the 2nd half or the 'Sections' as I have also very explicitly defined in other threads, that is the ONLY way you can apply 'diminishing probability' to the shoe and wager on it.

The larger a trend/bias last, the less likely it becomes favorable to continue.  The trend/bias becomes depleted and simply ceases the domination of whatever it was creating and happened.  (So many will blast this and say, it is impossible to predict.  However, that is not what this does, this will allow yourself to view what will ultimately happen, as you will not have 70 Bankers and 11 Players or say 60 Bankers and 16 Players, when the Bankers get to 30 Bankers and 11 Players for example.)

Impending changes to the positive momentum.  The time to notice them and adhere to them (wager with them) is when they start, don't be amazed when you wager with the previous or current bias and then it straightened out and changed back to the classical 'normal' or no trend/bias. 

That is just an example.  It is very real and it is very workable if you truly have an open mind and stop all the wagering theory of pre-set wagers.  This is going with the shoe rather than against it or praying it keeps doing something.
[/quote]

[alrelax]

Forgive my bad English, I meant people who bragged or gloated and claimed to know everything:))


uote author=alrelax

link=topic=7885.msg55302#msg55302 date=1493126616]
Something I have definitively defined in my own baccarat handbook of playing is, "Diminishing Probability".  I also call it 'unraveling' what has happened.  So many players, so many countless times will either wager with the streaks/chops or against them.  And of course, the newer way of playing I have talked about lately, is the players constantly wagering for the cut, wagering against the streak or repeat and then when it does cut-they wager for the repeat.  Always the opposite of the result, not the banker or player--hope you understand because that is really what the majority are doing. 

You have to look at the 1st half versus the 2nd half or the 'Sections' as I have also very explicitly defined in other threads, that is the ONLY way you can apply 'diminishing probability' to the shoe and wager on it.

The larger a trend/bias last, the less likely it becomes favorable to continue.  The trend/bias becomes depleted and simply ceases the domination of whatever it was creating and happened.  (So many will blast this and say, it is impossible to predict.  However, that is not what this does, this will allow yourself to view what will ultimately happen, as you will not have 70 Bankers and 11 Players or say 60 Bankers and 16 Players, when the Bankers get to 30 Bankers and 11 Players for example.)

Impending changes to the positive momentum.  The time to notice them and adhere to them (wager with them) is when they start, don't be amazed when you wager with the previous or current bias and then it straightened out and changed back to the classical 'normal' or no trend/bias. 

That is just an example.  It is very real and it is very workable if you truly have an open mind and stop all the wagering theory of pre-set wagers.  This is going with the shoe rather than against it or praying it keeps doing something.

I will do all that only when I hit a 15 unit chop-chop or a 14/15 run streak and I made you wager on it from the start and we both made great $$$, then I will gloat-claim to know it all, etc., LOL.

[soxfan]

The Frank Barstow talked about the "diminishing probability" concept in his Beat the Casino book. He said that as streaks get longer they are more likely to end. At my local joint most play to try and catch the long streak. But, I do think the anti-streak style is the only "mechanical" way to win well and regular, hey hey.

[alrelax]

The Frank Barstow talked about the "diminishing probability" concept in his Beat the Casino book. He said that as streaks get longer they are more likely to end. At my local joint most play to try and catch the long streak. But, I do think the anti-streak style is the only "mechanical" way to win well and regular, hey hey.

Yes, but only after certain points.  Not from the 2's and 3's, etc.  That is what I was referring to. I refer to the 'turning points' as the times to wager for the diminishing probability. 

[Patience777]

The Frank Barstow talked about the "diminishing probability" concept in his Beat the Casino book. He said that as streaks get longer they are more likely to end. At my local joint most play to try and catch the long streak. But, I do think the anti-streak style is the only "mechanical" way to win well and regular, hey hey.

I have this book also and just took it out of my book case. It has been several years since I have looked thru it. It is a great book! 
What page does he talk about "diminishing probability" on?

I agree...  the anti-streak style is the only "mechanical" way to win well and regular. 

[soxfan]

I have this book also and just took it out of my book case. It has been several years since I have looked thru it. It is a great book! 
What page does he talk about "diminishing probability" on?

I agree...  the anti-streak style is the only "mechanical" way to win well and regular.

He talks about the diminishing probability first on page 28, and a few times after that later in the book, hey hey.

[Patience777]

I was watching a high roller the other night.... I was playing at his table...
His trigger was 4 repeats then he made a $500 bet for the streak to continue to 5.
He lost his bet.
15 minutes later another repeat of 4 appeared.
This time he bet $700 for the streak to go to 5.
He lost again and cursed and then went to another table.
The moral of this story is...
You can't beat the game by guessing.


Cheers!

[brokerny]

Patience, if he's only betting $500 than waiting around to bet $700, do you really consider him a high roller? i see these middle aged asian women and men consistently put $500-$2000 almost on every bet opportunity until they lose their stack of maybe $10-20k. I would consider that more of a high roller than that guy.

[Patience777]

Patience, if he's only betting $500 than waiting around to bet $700, do you really consider him a high roller? i see these middle aged asian women and men consistently put $500-$2000 almost on every bet opportunity until they lose their stack of maybe $10-20k. I would consider that more of a high roller than that guy.

In the casino that I frequent that guy is a high roller. I have seen him bet $1500 a hand before.

I saw an Asian lady once win 100K in two hours and then she lost it all back to the casino in the 3rd hour. sheeez

[DevilsAdvocate]

I am in agreement with this but with a slight variation. WHEN it comes to streaks, I look for which has revealed itself more within a shoe; a 3iar or 4iar? If 3's bet for the cut...if 4's follow that streak!!