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[Sputnik]

i was a member for a weekend then you took away access, why I have no idea. whatever..

I was also a member, but John feels that you have to contribute on daily basis to stay member or at least be very active, i personal can not deal with does conditions ...
So i assume that is why he took away access.

[WorldBaccaratKing]

I was also a member, but John feels that you have to contribute on daily basis to stay member or at least be very active, i personal can not deal with does conditions ...
So i assume that is why he took away access.

maybe, no biggy...

[WorldBaccaratKing]

This is not true Patrick, you simply have to contribute once in a while, that expectation will increase if you are logging in frequently (i.e daily) without posting.  Besides you told me you were leaving, you weren't bumped, if my memory serves me correctly...
It was longer than that, a week maybe, I tend not to give warnings, because it opens up the possibility people doing a lot of page dumps, just like Bally6345 did recently.  Basically you didn't make a single Baccarat related post, so I kinda guessed things weren't gonna work out, no hard feelings.  I'm choosy whom I let read the details my trip reports, whom I decide to share stuff with, I don't need members and have considered shutting the thing down, but the few that remain have asked me to keep things open. 

If I spot somebody on the same wave-length, I might extend an invitation.  Other than that, it's private, if I could be bothered I could open a public forum with a VIP area, but I've no desire or time to go down that path....   

No problem, no hard feelings. Wish you the best.

[soxfan]

Good to see the john-O/gr8888888888one feud goin strong after all these years. Time to break out the Guinness and cahsew and enjoy the show, hey hey.

[WorldBaccaratKing]

This is the bane, the downfall, of many a would-be trender.  And it is the very reason that you must have the following answers within your own style of play:

1.)  Bet

You're triggered into your preferred plays, and so you put your chips into the designated circle.  From there, there's simply no room for any second-guessing yourself or whining about the outcome; again, when triggered, you put your money into the designated circle.

2.)  No-bet, part one

You're facing your preferred method's nemesis, and so you're not triggered in, and so you sit patiently as you allow some (hopefully) "virtual losses" go by. 

3.)  No-bet, part two

You're triggered into your preferred plays, but, for the most part, your chips are winding up in the dealer's tray.  THIS is, obviously, the most difficult of the circumstances.  And it is, quite frankly, where THE TRUTH of you and your play will be unearthed.  For me, it boils down to:  1.) await at least a "virtual win" before recommencing real bets; and 2.)  awaiting next shoe, where my preferred plays (hopefully) should perform better (combined with a shoe prog...but remember, at recoup, it's back to base bet).

You simply cannot allow the game to "get into your head" at the tables, for that's not the place to decide with any real rationale.  Best to know your answers beforehand.

I have to say I agree with you for the most. Especially, on the virtual win part. Any system, whatever, however you play, will run into a rough patch at some point. You either use a progression that can withstand that and have very deep pockets, or, when you hit 'X' amount of losses, you simply sit out and wait for a 'W' to get back in. Certainly a W could come in while playing virtual and triggering you back into the game and you could hit another X amount of losses, that's the beauty of random games, you just never, ever know....

BUT....

From recently testing, I can go on a nice tear and be up only to see it be eaten away by a longggg string of losses....So, I am starting to sit on the sidelines when I hit X amount of losses and then when I see a virtual W, I get back in....Sometimes, it works like a charm and you saved 5-10 losses and other times you jump right back into another string of losses!

You need a plan, that's is for sure.....The virtual sideline play just stops the bleeding, even if for a few minutes.....

The best triggers in the world don't make sense really, its random, anything can happen at any time....

You need to follow the shoe the best you can but even then you can get screwed. chops turn into 2x2, then back to chop, then 3B, 3P, you decide maybe they will start doubling up so when B comes in, you load up on B only to see the dreaded P and the beginning of a chop......So, you can get eaten alive at any moment...

Off to bed.........

[Bayes]

What is this, amateur hour, is this the kiddies class?   I am surprised Bayes, I thought you were clued up, with all the math reasoning stuff you post!!!
What part of "all bet selections resolve equally, when run against a set of truth tables" did you not comprehend?

How many times does one have to keep explaining the same thing over and over and over ad nauseam (having already given Jim a full explanation)?  TRUTH TABLES, get it?  If the game is UNPREDICTABLE and there is no-correlation between future and past hands, then you might as well test your method, any method against a set of truth tables, the answer will be 50%

Truth tables are irrelevant, and your choice of 5 outcomes per line  is arbitrary. Why should they be especially representative of the set of outcomes which will occur in reality? I've said before that combinations are not permutations, so each line in the table is equally likely only insofar as order is concerned, not the numbers of P vs B. In any case, you don't have to bring in truth tables to make your point, you might as well say that every bet is a 50:50 proposition - that has the same logical force as appealing to truth tables, since truth tables are generated from the premise that every bet is 50:50.

Agreed, there is no "magic" pattern or selection which will give an advantage, that's not what I meant, but there are still ways of selecting your bets which reduce the likelihood of long losing streaks, and that's all that we can realistically expect to achieve, in my opinion. You use one yourself to good effect. How does that square with your truth table test?

My method of bet selection is really no secret, I've written about the principle many times on this and other forums, and others (sputnik in particular) have posted examples of its use. After 10 years playing and studying even-money games, I've come to the conclusion that regression to the mean is the only reliable method of bet selection, which, combined with sensible MM (not at all obvious, by the way, and contrary to what the "experts" tell you), results in a winning strategy - you simply can't lose if you follow the principles. In fact, I believe that anyone who has success must be, although perhaps unconsciously, using these strategies. You certainly are, I could see that when I was at your forum (which was why I didn't stay, by the way - I didn't think I could contribute anything which you didn't know already, and vice-versa).

Anyway, I'll be explaining all this in much greater detail on my web-site. Nothing will be left out, including why RTM is the only viable BS, and why other approaches don't work (and the same for my method of MM). I'll also be making available the software I use when playing online, for a modest price. I emphasize that I'm not selling a system; the software is simply a tool, and like I said, you will have all the information needed to create your own software or excel sheet, if you would rather do that. BTW, the software is geared to roulette, since that game gives more betting opportunities, but you could use it for Bacc/Craps, and I might create specific versions for those games if there's any demand.

It's just a template at the moment, but check back on a weekly basis for updates: http://betterthaneven.eu.pn/

[horus]

In fact, I believe that anyone who has success must be, although perhaps unconsciously, using these strategies.

Bayes, that would make a great title for a book...

''Sleepwalking your way to a fortune'' 

Looking forward to your site. 

[Bayes]

Hi horus,

I wouldn't call it sleepwalking, the process demands a high degree of concentration. It's not a "system" in the usual sense of being rigid and mechanical, so no two people will play the exact same way, but the principles are set in stone, so if you adhere to them, you won't go wrong.

The software tool is by no means a substitute for thinking, but having said that, it would be much harder to implement the strategies as effectively playing in a B & M casino, because the amount of tracking and calculating would be too demanding to do manually, and your patience would be tested to the utmost, because to ensure the necessary degree of safety, you need to restrict betting to the right conditions (the software generates enough opportunities to give you a bet every spin/hand, after the first 15 - 20 outcomes have been recorded).

I did think carefully about creating this site, because it's not my intention to encourage anyone to gamble, but I wanted to set down what I've learned over the years, and somewhere other than in a forum which may or may not exist a year or so down the road (no offense intended Vic :-))

I'm no gambler by nature, and this method does not require balls of steel or the resources of Bill Gates. Bankroll requirements and draw-downs are minimal - 200 units is more than enough. The risk is minimal, and it's always carefully calculated. A big part of the strategy is knowing at all times what can possibly go wrong, and having an option to cope with any eventuality, which is why I will be devoting a section of the site to statistics.

[horus]

Thanks Bayes,

It's fair to say that you know your stuff and I look forward to learning more. I agree a 'system' in the usual sense is just set up for failure when the bad variance comes along. It's also true IMO that anything too complex can be very hard to operate manually in a live B+M casino with so many distractions going on. I swear those slot machines get louder every year, LoL.

[Sputnik]

I tought you gave up RTM being same as any other selection.

[ozon]

I'll be waiting on your project.

[Chef]

Hello Bayes,

Congratulation on your up and coming wed site. Wish you success.

Regression to the mean is not only a reliable betting method , it's actually a successful method.

It can be proven beyond doubt that it's a long time winner.

I can't say much here. Looking forward to your new web site.

Regards

[Bayes]

I tought you gave up RTM being same as any other selection.

I don't think so, can you link to where I posted that?

It has to be handled carefully, and to be more accurate I should say RTM + DIVERSIFICATION are (or should be) the two pillars of successful bet selection.

[Drazen]

Oh I can't wait Bayses web site with all that stuff there. Oh dear oh dear... God knows when was the last time I read something on roulette forum that exalted me like that 

Please don't resent me for being partially off topic but I am here here to vouch that RTM is really a thing that works and can be used to make money long term in any sort of gambling or seen in some other areas, becasue this phenomena shows its form in many aspects in our universe, and it is provable 

Many of you know me from my very first post and roulette idea posted and since then I had only one wish: to become professional gambler. Today I can say that my wish is fullfilled but slightly different then from the beginning. I was dreaming to be professional roulette player but instead of that I am semi- professional sports bettor today. (Semi -pro only techincally). And the thing is that I first found a way how to be successful in the roulette and then transfered same principles to the sports betting, becasue in this area of gambling it is much more allowed to be successful and earn good money, and deviations are a bit lower to say the truth.

Our dear Flatino was the person whom I owe for being taken into the "gambling" world and Bayes and Alberto Jonas are the persons whom I owe for being professional today. Bayses explanations, teachings, softwares and tests with RTM helped me to understand all about luck in gambling and how to turn it into my favour... Things are incredbily simple here, at least for me.

What I do is seeking strong enough deviation on EC (in sports betting you have that in form of main asian handicap line for example) and after some point start to play against it... And switching such triggers all the time. With a bit of carefull but still enough sharp progression, I have yield of 15% in my business and my bank is 100 units where I never went over 60 in DD and that was due to my wrong reckless decisions at that time. My banks are multiplied decent amount of times by now without single loss. Now I have few of them in the background and making money seems unrealisticly easy.. Huh should I say that?  [smiley]aes/thinking.png[/smiley]

I was living only from bookie juices for some time, and then suddenly I got a job. I accepted it although today I earn monthly 6 times more on betting then my sallary is... And that ratio will be higher and higher... I work at office, many would say boring job, but you have to do something in your life. So due to that I can't call myself full-blooded professional gambler, although I would like 

This true story sums all what Bayes is saying here and what has said many times...

RTM works and can be used to be nicely profitable in the gambling. You have my word too. And you can put it in the bank. [smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]

Best

Drazen

[Tomla]

Congrats, Drazen!!!
Bayes on your theory  on RTM do you flat bet or use a progression?