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[Jimske]

Some of you guys pretty sharp with the maths.  What would be the minimum hands won % you might consider just flat betting.  Now of course you got to make some fudging about how many hands are bet on P and B.  But ket's assume they are nearly equal.  "Nearly" because there are more B than P.

You  could also opine on what unit size you would personally require to "feed the bulldog."  hey, hey.

I expect you to weigh in here asymbaccguy and Gr8.

J

[Big EZ]

The minimum win% to consider flat betting should be  51.3% at the number you have an advantage, but not very big one considering 51.2% is break even.


As far as bankroll goes.  I would take your longest losing run and multiply it by at least 10. If you LLR is 10 in a row then I would feel comfortable with 100 unit BR minimum.

For unit size, whatever you can afford at that breakdown [smiley]monkey/crazy-monkey-emoticon-055.gif[/smiley]

[Jimske]

The minimum win% to consider flat betting should be  51.3% at the number you have an advantage, but not very big one considering 51.2% is break even.


As far as bankroll goes.  I would take your longest losing run and multiply it by at least 10. If you LLR is 10 in a row then I would feel comfortable with 100 unit BR minimum.

For unit size, whatever you can afford at that breakdown [smiley]monkey/crazy-monkey-emoticon-055.gif[/smiley]

MMM.  thanks.  LLR was, in fact 10 IAR - one time.  After that 9 IAR once.

[james]

If your win rate is 52.47% and 51.2% is break even, your advantage is 52.47-51.2=1.27% rounded to 1%. As per Kelly Criterion always bet 1% of your bankroll rounded to the nearest five. If you start with $3000 your bet will be $30. When the bankroll is greater than $3250 increase bet size to $35. If the bankroll is less than $2750 decrease to $25, and so on. Always bet 1% of bankroll rounded suitably.

[soxfan]

Personally, I wouldn't bet flat unless I was certain of winning 55 percents of all hands. And then it would be a purple chip proposition for me. Besides, I would go the route of the positive progression style. Positive progressions act like flat bets when losing but give yer profits an extrma oomph when yer winning, hey hey.

[Big EZ]

depends how many bets your trying to win in a row, if you win 2 and lose the 3rd everytime you are down 1 unit but when you flat bet you are up 1 unit in that situation

[Rolex-Watch]

That's what the Contra d'alembert is for...

[Big EZ]

In that same wwL sequence you would be +0 with that...or am I missing something

[Tomla]

contra might be something like  plus 100, plus 150 ,-200 so plus only 50,,, flat would be plus 100 at that point
wwl

[HunchBacShrimp]

With LIAR limited to 10 or less your best option would be to play a mini series. Similar to GR8's progression.

A series of 9 or 11.

11111111111   If you lose 6 or more double your unit size to 2 and
22222222222   monitor your draw down, always play for a profit before you reset to 1u bets.
33333333333   Be confident in your bet selection, you can't afford to lose 2u and win 1u
44444444444   You will need a bank roll larger than 20u.
55555555555   You will have to decide what limits you put on this MM.


Flat betting with 52% hit rate or greater doesn't ever Bust. Once you enter into a progression, you will have to set its parameters. Theoretically, you should be able to continue in this progression or one a bit more aggressive and never blow through your bankroll with liar limited to 10 and a win rate above 50%.

I would also monitor your recent strike rate. Past 50 bets or so. I know you recently went +17u flat betting inside of 40 bets. I would expect that not to continue and start the progression with 1/2u bets. Or be prepared for a deep draw down and have the confidence to bet through it to profit.

[Rolex-Watch]

With LIAR limited to 10 or less your best option would be to play a mini series. Similar to GR8's progression.

How often you expecting to be hit by 9LIAR? 

With what you suggest, you need to be "more right than wrong, as well as requiring early wins" at every level.  I personally would use STAR or E-STAR.  There is  a valid reason why the teacher doesn't use it any-more ;-)

[Sputnik]

 Hello i don't understand why you would use does strings - does it mean i only have to win back half my bets when i am at secound level or do i have to win with exact 50% or more.
My TRNG march have won over 50.000 placed bets flat betting and i still get serios fluctation and variance that destroy that kind of progression.

For example this session - was i only unlucky or how ofthen do you bust even if you have strike ratio around 53% and above.
And i don't understand what is the Point haveing a string of 9 when you move up next level after 5 or less.

I use this strings...

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2
4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6 6

[Big EZ]

sputnik...does the TRNG march produce over 50% strike rate? if so I would not say this is unlucky, only the variance. what have you seen as the longest losses in a row so far with the march? looking at what you post it looks like wrangler

[AsymBacGuy]

Nice replies.

Imo, FB is just the start to set up a possible long term winning method.
Variance will be very high and, imo, a FB method expecially whether not mathematically based (being an impossible task, we know) will cross many unfortunate situations no matter how we'll be patient and disciplined.

If a FB method will have the best of it, it means that our winning sequences will be proportionally longer than the losing ones; so our W sequences in a row will be higher than our W isolated sequences. The same for 3W in a row will be higher than 2W in a row. And so on.
Same about our losing patterns taken in a reverse thought.
It should be a good idea to register such situations. 

To reduce the variance's impact, I'd prefer to bet after a given L sequence and I don't care if I have to wait many hands to bet.

I'm not there to be comped, I don't give a f about a Bacchanal buffet or a free "O" show or a luxury Costantine suite accomodation (expecially if I'm living in Vegas).

The more we select our betting opportunities, the better will be our results.

And we're so happy that casinos won't think that baccarat is a beatable game. LOL.



as.   


 

[Sputnik]

@ Big EZ - is not wrangler march - i have to guess which way to go when i end up with certain end play - so is not 100% mechanical - there is Three ways playing the TRNG march.
Three ways to strike.