Hey guys,
New to this forum and come from Australia.
I am a newish Bacarrat player, playing for about 5 years in brick and mortar casino here in Sydney
Just wondering if anyone has flat bet on bank before. I would just like to hear some feedback. So far this works pretty well and it profitable for me to take a 2 unit profit every time I play. Even on player strong shoes, I can wait it out and get my profit on the next one.
Has anyone ever tried this before at a real casino???
Cheers guys.
Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey.
Welcome to the forum R75, if you are successful don't change. 5 yrs is quite a while playing, you must have worked out your own approach which is working for you. have you always flat bet banker for last 5 yrs ?. how many bets do you average per shoe. i like your take 2units style, i find while playing other players are too greedy. i have never flat bet banker, because i find it hard to win say 55% of bets over the long term. but hats off to you if you can make it like that. good old sydney town, im currently being held captive by crazy females, in the golden triangle lol, if i can escape i'll pm you for a session at the star.
cheers trent
Hey Trent,
I believe it's good to share what works and what doesn't mate. I'm not much of a mathematician but I do watch a lot of shoes, and I have seen this method work a lot of the time and I've won quite a bit from it too. But....I have seen player be very dominant sometimes too. I'm still doing a lot of research on this play style and I am testing it live at the Star with small money. Once I'm satisfied I'm maker by a good long term profit, I will increase my betting.
My other method of play is to take 50 units with you, whatever they may be and bet on trends and such. We all know the patterns to look for, so I just try to follow the trends. I know what you guys think about house edge and stuff and that the casino will always come out on top but.....I win a lot of money with this style of play. I don't double bets as such but I start with say 1 unit and if I'm picking trends correctly, I'll keep going with my 1 unit, but if I get a good feeling on the next win, I'll just bet like 5 units and when I'm down, I do a couple of big bets sometimes.
With this method of play, I do lose sometimes, but the good thing is, I win more in the long term then I lose.
I think key is having a 50 unit bankroll with you so you can come back from small losses and just follow those trends.
That's pretty much how I play.
Cheers,
Good stuff r75 , looks like your organised punter, smart to bet small until youve got your plan sorted. A guy on here is always bangin on about patience and discipline , but his right, have to wait for your shoe to arrive. My wife and sister in laws can't control themselves and have to bet on every deal, how can you win like that. and when do do win some, won't leave until they given most of it back lol.
o.k mate good luck for xmas n/y.
Stats are correct and they are also wrong at times.......
Your most profitable times...will usually have nothing at all to do with implementing statistics........
Problem is, in the casinos favor, the player does not know and cannot control what the stats will produce or when they are coming.......
Flat betting can win often in various sections better than others or possibly a whole shoe. If anyone has not observed shoes where Banker or Player is say 10 to 20 winning hands over the other side, they have not play this game much. Of course if you are on Banker, it best be an EZ Bac (no commission table).
I have seen 2 or 3 or even 4 lines or either B or P going straight down within small sections and the opposite side say 1 spot and then chop back to the side making all the repeats. So in all essence you can get 14 to 20 or so winning hands of one side Vs. the other in the small section, not even the whole shoe.
But, patience and extreme willpower needs to be employed and as others said, wait for your time. How to identify that, I have touched on and others will highly debate the ability to identify when that time is there without letting it go by. But again, some of us have it and some don't. The same as dancing, making love to the opposite sex (or might be the same sex for some of you???), the ability to ask a floor person for a comp and survive a castration, the ability to cook, the ability to fix a vehicle, the ability to play music, etc., etc. Some have it and many do it. At what success ratio you have it will always be debated whether it is baccarat or one of the other things I listed.
As far as me, who am I? You can compare me to Tony M. in Saturday Night Fever and Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry and all his other police movies and also Telly Savalas from Kojak. Oh almost forget, also throw in Bruce Willis in the Die Hard movies. I get the job done, I know what is right and wrong and employ off the wall stuff and simply, throw whatever I feel out there at times. I do the same thing on this board and members have a fit and revolt, downright chastise and humiliate at times cause I don't fit their mold of being another jerk-off trying to apply 10,000 shoe statistics to 3 or 6 or 9 shoes one night at the casino. Thanks and good luck!
Hi Rhamone!
Under almost every circumstance you can't win by flat betting, buy you are guaranteed to lose just the 1.06% of the total money wagered.
If casinos were to build their income about that 1% they would have closed their bac tables decades ago. (that is almost every player like to utilize bad timing progressions)
as.
Hey Asymbacguy,
Yeah, I don't know too much of the Math about the game, but yeah, I am doing ok with that flat bet on bank, for the moment and I will post when it loses, so far it's won about 34 times since I've been trying it.
I forgot to mention too, each of my wins has been played from the very first hand of the shoe. Most of the time it wins within the first 15 hands dealt.
Cheers,
If it works for you then do not change your method.
Happy Winnings !!
Nathan Detroit 5
Quote from: Rhamone1975 on December 20, 2016, 05:45:32 PM
Hey Asymbacguy,
Yeah, I don't know too much of the Math about the game, but yeah, I am doing ok with that flat bet on bank, for the moment and I will post when it loses, so far it's won about 34 times since I've been trying it.
I forgot to mention too, each of my wins has been played from the very first hand of the shoe. Most of the time it wins within the first 15 hands dealt.
Cheers,
Hey... Are you still winning flat betting banker? Do you have some kind of trigger before betting? Do you stop for the day after winning 2 units or that is your stop win per shoe. And how many units is your SL per shoe. Thanks
There is much better staking plans then flat betting and more effective.
Cheers
Quote from: Sputnik on February 07, 2017, 12:02:19 PM
There is much better staking plans then flat betting and more effective.
Cheers
Hey Sputnik,
Can you please provide more details about your staking plans?
Thanks in advance.
Flat betting huh. Say wager the whole shoe and maybe it turns out 50 Bankers and 22 Players. Then again maybe, 37 Bankers and 32 Players. Then again maybe 49 Players and 28 Bankers. Or could be 34 Players and 35 Bankers.
One can consistently win flat betting, period.
One can consistently win by varying bet size, period.
One can consistently win with a losing strike rate and by varying bet size, period.
Betting Bank only will be very rough at times. As stated, there are many shoes that are Player dominated throughout or for significant segments.
Quote from: jsintl on February 07, 2017, 06:47:07 PM
Hey Sputnik,
Can you please provide more details about your staking plans?
Thanks in advance.
It has to do with your understanding about the game and how to simulate winning results - all the tests that is done at this gambling forum among others is wrong.
You don't test one selection method flat betting until it fails or use any selection method flat betting or with progression until it fails.
Does test show nothing and are useless.
All system lose this way and same goes for this method we talk about at this topic.
Quote from: alrelax on February 07, 2017, 09:27:20 PM
Flat betting huh. Say wager the whole shoe and maybe it turns out 50 Bankers and 22 Players. Then again maybe, 37 Bankers and 32 Players. Then again maybe 49 Players and 28 Bankers. Or could be 34 Players and 35 Bankers.
I quote alrelax comment because it touch the core or cut Point.
We know when all system fails and create win targets and loss limits.
But without testing so we don't know what it means to be ahead.
You don't know when you are ahead using your particular method because you did all the testing in the wrong way.
This is one reason why your win target is a false positive or based upon wrong assumptions.
You pick any method with flatbetting or progression and do the following test to know when you actually are ahead.
Test 100 placed bets 10 times (minimum)
Then look what is the common and average amount you are ahead with all 10 sampels.
If it say 20% then you know that for exampel 90% of all times you will be ahead 20% and should quit playing - that is your true win target and you define what it means being ahead.
Same goes for loses and you will never face the sequense from hell as you will not ride that horce or going down that path.
Look at the 100 placed bets sampels to define the worst and most common drawdowns and you can define the loss limit contra your win target (for all 10 sampels).
Cheers
Trying to keep it simple and anything said in relation to any of this, can be flipped and turned for a false-positive outcome/possibility.
But anyway, whatever system, wagering thought/plan, etc., a person goes to the table with, will have anyone of only 3 possible things happen.
1) Win
2) Lose
3) Push even
Depending on how long you gamble it might change. Depending on when you leave, will determine your winnings or your loss.
How much you win or lose is 100% dependent upon the section you are playing and the outcome.
Some people will correlate a pre-determined chosen plan to employ and yet others will decide and go with what they feel for whatever reasoning when the time comes. Either one can do all 3 things at anytime.
As far as knowing when to leave. Again, that is a decision the person has to resolve with gambling experience and other experience and needs mixed in the decision making process. It really has nothing to do IMO with the system/wagering decision mix whatsoever.
I agree
It's impossible to win due to progressions.
A given progression works for a shoe and doesn't work for another shoe.
Baccarat is the typical casino game "hit and run".
I'm very surprised that Sputnik,that I consider an expert,doesn't share my position
This discussion is getting more and more INTERESTING as we go. On balance if the net dollar value of money applied to winning hands is greater than that of losing, you win. Please differentiate between hard and fast application of flat or positive/ negative progression and discretionary.
My biggest bets last night were in the latest rounds of play. Not preferred at all, but it was a strong formation.
Quote from: 21 Aces on February 07, 2017, 09:42:45 PM
One can consistently win flat betting, period.
One can consistently win by varying bet size, period.
One can consistently win with a losing strike rate and by varying bet size, period.
Betting Bank only will be very rough at times. As stated, there are many shoes that are Player dominated throughout or for significant segments.
Well, two outta three ain't bad, hey hey.
Quote from: Sputnik on February 08, 2017, 04:37:53 AM
You pick any method with flatbetting or progression and do the following test to know when you actually are ahead.
Test 100 placed bets 10 times (minimum)
Then look what is the common and average amount you are ahead with all 10 sampels.
If it say 20% then you know that for exampel 90% of all times you will be ahead 20% and should quit playing - that is your true win target and you define what it means being ahead.
Same goes for loses and you will never face the sequense from hell as you will not ride that horce or going down that path.
Look at the 100 placed bets sampels to define the worst and most common drawdowns and you can define the loss limit contra your win target (for all 10 sampels).
Actually, in spite of the spelling errors, that makes a lot of sense and should produce a good "target" for wins and losses in a shoe or group of shoes for those looking for a good starting point to plan for.
If I can find some time I'll run a few hundred hands from the "shoe locker" and see what it looks like with the FB/VDW/2 play.
AD (naming conventions are unique to make sure I'm talking about the same thing three months from now)
Quote from: roversi13 on February 08, 2017, 02:14:01 PM
I agree
It's impossible to win due to progressions.
A given progression works for a shoe and doesn't work for another shoe.
Baccarat is the typical casino game "hit and run".
I'm very surprised that Sputnik,that I consider an expert,doesn't share my position
roversi13 i don't use negative progression i use regression.
Cheers
IMO and to clarify for others that have little to no experience in playing, you can win with Flat betting. You can also win with any other 'labeled' wagering decision such as:
* Doubles
* 1's-2's-3's
* Repeating Streaks
* Cut after Natural
* Stick after Natural
* Cut after Tie
* Stick after Tie
* Cut after any certain total # that won
* Repeat after any certain total # that won
* 1's and 3's, following or not following
And about a dozen other 'labeled' prevailing OR non-prevailing winning hand.
I hope you can see what I am trying to lay out. Anything and everything can or may not prevail.
The same thing that prevails whether it is based on the sequence of happening or you are basing it on a pattern or trend involving actual numbers or happenings, it can and may not and it will eventually giving fuel to those that believe in whatever it was that you they were thinking.
So can flat betting win? Sure. Can it win consistently? Maybe, but it all hinges on how long you employ that wagering tactic/decision. If you go into a brick and mortar casino and flat bet say 2 or 3 times in a section of the shoe that is not strong for whatever reasons, you may be able to pull off winning those 2 or 3 or maybe 4 or so flat wagers a whole bunch of times. Might be 9 out of 10 trips. Might be 20 out of 20 trips. Might be 48 out of 50 trips or even a possible 50 out of 50 trips. (I said in a section of the shoe that is 'not strong' because IMO that would be the most opportune time/section to perform a quick 2 or 3 wagers of this type in.)
However, I do know that if you flat bet say 1/2 to 70% of the shoe, you will not prevail very well at all. For one reason. No matter what you do, no matter the time you stay, no matter the strategy or system you employ, the longer you do it--the greater your chances climb with every wagered hand you will lose.
Played very tight to looser than a bunch of sailors on shore leave. End result was win, but it wasn't pretty at times. All in, probably one of the nights of sickest shoes ever with a lot of opportunity for progression and advanced betting over flat. HOWEVER flat can still win if selective and sharp.
(https://scottwhitmorewriter.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/sailors-beer1.jpg)
Just came back from Star Casino and found this forum. This is my humble thought:-
1. Bet flat on Banker in the long run you will lose money because of the House advantage.
2. Bet big when you are losing mean you will lose Big and will Small. You must bet the opposite. Remember do not use your capital to bet Big when you are in negative bankroll (losing money). When you are winning you can use your winning to bet big in order to win more. Your 50 units in a good day if you dare to bet big you might win 200 or more. Even win 200 in a day increase your Bankroll to extra 4 days.
3. Money management is the key to make a living in Baccarat.
Good luck guys!
good luck playing banker its possible
Anybody who is anybody and has an Excel program on their computer has already run the "Flat Bet Banker Only" scenario.
It's easy enough to program and you can run hundreds of thousands of shoes/hands all day and night long.
You can instantly rerun it over and over again, millions of hands at a time. And then instantly see the chart of just how poorly a choice this really is.
The result is still the same.
At least mathematically, and according to Excel, flat betting Banker for every hand is a losing proposition.
Now "selective" Banker only betting is something completely different and not to be confused with Banker Only Every Hand.
AD (I don't subscribe to either theory)
Lots or wishful thinking!
You can win by flat betting banker sure.
You can also lose.
You can win by flat betting players.
Depends what side is strong. But one can take off to a solid 25. Hands over the other.
Problem is, the decision to continue wagering one side over the other.
I have seen 50 plus bankers versus20 or so players . As well equally see 40 to 60 players at times.
IMO flat betting either side will eventually get you big time. Not one doubt in my mind!
Pro or con. Nobody will listen either way.
I was playing the other night and it started off with 5 bankers, 1 player, 6 bankers, 1 player 8 or 9 bankers 1 player, etc. almost all continual wagering for the players because they kept saying players had to come out.
Then when it's heavy players they all try to wager the banker.
When all we had was the big tables with no score boards the rack would have been emptied on continual bankers with huge presses and the first 3 hands and then just pull down the winning. But now it's all changed!
You know, to say you can prevail by wagering anything flat betting without regards to what the shoe is actually doing, is absurd. Think about it.
A player can also win by wagering flat on the player side, chop-chop, doubles or waiting for a streak and wagering the repeat after 3 hits in a row or even wagering the cut after three as so many actually do.
Yes these players win on those types of bets and then they equally lose on those types bets as well.
Last week I hit 5 Fortune 7's in one shoe and all five were contained on 2 lines in the road above left corner to the Big Road. Since boards are different designed, I am referring to what most boards call the 'marker road' which is normally to the top and left side of the big road, but not always. 3 on one line and the other 2 on another line. Every time the next hand was coming up to place a decision on those two lines we all placed table max on the F-7 wager. But, in most other shoes it is rare those five would all be on any 2 lines. But it was and the whole table was hitting the F-7's. However, to wager on those lines heavy and just for the opinion that the next F-7 will hit and be to the right of the previous F-7's is really poor wagering technique.
To me, on the highest amount of shoes, there are 'sections' that hold true as to what the shoe will produce. Not the whole shoe, not shoe after shoe, etc., just 'sections'--maybe 3 or 4 or 5 within each shoe that will be repetitive of the decisions, whether banker-player-chop/chop-doubles or a streak/run, etc. IMO, if you don't adapt to what the shoe is producing, you stand absolutely no chance to deploy a predetermined wagering plan/schedule.
Quote from: ADulay on February 22, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Now "selective" Banker only betting is something completely different and not to be confused with Banker Only Every Hand.
Good point. This is the only option we have to get something from this game. Notice that "to get something" I mean certain ploys to reduce the HE up to the point where in some instances we can even invert it.
as.
But why limit it only to Banker?? The exact same would also hold true for Players, Singles, or Doubles or many other things.
Quote from: alrelax on February 25, 2017, 10:51:25 PM
But why limit it only to Banker?? The exact same would also hold true for Players, Singles, or Doubles or many other things.
Hi Al!
From a strict probability and mathematical point of view, Player cannot get any advantage over the Banker besides the situations where the deck is plentiful of small cards.
Unfortunately any card counting strategy won't give us any help about this (rare) P favourable opportunities.
Hence we must rely upon a general probability to get more Bs than Ps.
Even though it seems that the shoe will produce almost only P hands.
If we think baccarat as a game of considering Banker as our ally and Player as our enemy we are building a preordered plan in the same way any bj player consider high cards vs low cards.
At least we are mathematically reducing the house edge by a 0.18% degree.
Then there are the normal fluctuations of the game, we can easily get 2-3 or more shoes favoring the P side. Or getting shoes with a lot of consecutive B singles, and so on.
The normal deviations can be registered in many different forms: B/P hands gap, singles/doubles on any side, etc.
The deeper we want to register the different B/P outcomes, the better will be the probability to get lower deviations than expected, as any hand is quite dependent from the previous ones.
For example, one player might be ahead after one shoe played; after two shoes the number of players being ahead is logarithmic lower, up to the point where after 10 shoes played the number of winning players will be very very low, if any.
Of course everything will depend about the real number of hands wagered. Let's say any player had bet 2/3 of the total hands of every single shoe.
It's interesting to notice that on average almost no one losing player had lost the expected 1.06% or 1.24% of the total money wagered. But this has to rely upon the bad attitude of many players wanting to break even or to win a lot.
For sure and independently of the strategies involved, we also must deduce that an important role of the bet selection is working.
What worked so far now is not working. Why?
The answer is that the more we play higher will be the probability to get expected results. If we had won by following a general expected results strategy (more B than P, more B streaks than B singles, etc), we know that sooner or later such strategy will be counterbalanced by opposite results. If we had chosen to wager "actual" results, no matter how expected should be or not, we know that sooner or later such trend will be canceled by "counter" results.
Therefore there are two distinct ways of thought: betting toward expcted results and betting toward actual results.
Both reach some points, either positive or negative, but only the expected side values are mathematically known, I mean tending to get well known ratios. And naturally it takes some time to get such expected results to appear.
The problem, not an easy task to accomplish, is just to "limit" at most the random world, so letting some deviations to flow without betting. Actually many players want to get the best of any single pattern every shoe is providing or, even worse, to get expected outcomes within too short time.
The concept that after 10 or more played shoes very few players will be winning (and the losing ones are well more behind than the 1% they are entitled to) should be taken just on the opposite side of the medal.
No matter what we are playing, there are two ratios we should care of: the W/L ratio and the expected ratio of various outcomes. But always wagering Player we know that we'll get more losses than wins and vice versa. And any mix of the two can only add confusion to the whole picture.
Imo, the most important features any player should look for are the old ones: waiting and trying to get the best of the most likely outcome in its various forms.
Knowing that the heaven and the hell can only exist on the shortert terms.
as.
There are elaborate mathematical and statically numbers that mean literally ZIP when sitting down to play 2 or 4 or 5 shoes at a casino. Doesn't matter what those 100,000 or 10,000,000 hands showed!
Likewise, there are different approaches to tackle winning. Does not matter if you are wagering on Banker, Player, Chop, Doubles, Streaks, F-7's, are 25 other numerous classified traits of the game.
My approach works far better then the average player sitting there with their score card vertical and wagering on so and so because there never was more than 3 or 2 or 4 in a row or because it cuts every time on a natural or the other 20 insane reasoning 'the' all seem to have.
Quote from: alrelax on February 27, 2017, 08:11:51 PM
My approach works far better then the average player sitting there with their score card vertical and wagering on so and so because there never was more than 3 or 2 or 4 in a row or because it cuts every time on a natural or the other 20 insane reasoning 'the' all seem to have.
Average players don't count :-)
as.
Quote from: Rhamone1975 on December 17, 2016, 10:15:59 AM
Hey guys,
New to this forum and come from Australia.
I am a newish Bacarrat player, playing for about 5 years in brick and mortar casino here in Sydney
Just wondering if anyone has flat bet on bank before. I would just like to hear some feedback. So far this works pretty well and it profitable for me to take a 2 unit profit every time I play. Even on player strong shoes, I can wait it out and get my profit on the next one.
Has anyone ever tried this before at a real casino???
Cheers guys.
You mention that you're successful baccarat player for 5 years so I don't consider you a newbie. That's already pretty good years and if you are successful in that method don't ever think of altering it. Kudos to you because never tried it yet but I find it very entertaining and I'm amaze. For now, I am still in the process of learning the flat betting and hoping to try this out soon.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 27, 2017, 08:36:43 PM
Average players don't count :-)
as.
Average Better=The Highest Majority of Players I come in contact with.