After multiple sessions with hand shuffled baccarat shoes, I would argue to the nth degree that the game is absolutely different. Dealers can never approach the thorough and fair level of the shuffle of a baccarat shoe achieved by a Shuffle Master system or equivalent with a fair cut and burn cards process. Furthermore, you will most likely have a huge disparity in the level of quality of shuffle completed by different dealers. That is, even though they are all supposed be using the same approach, many dealers will suck at it. If a dealer goes through the process and cards are grouped/clumped together at times, it may look like they are doing a good enough job to players, floor managers, and surveillance, but they are not. Baccarat is difficult enough without having to think or attempt to track which dealers may or may not being doing a good job shuffling as dealers are typically rotated in an out frequently. But there may be an edge in the game created by this. Who knows.
From what I have directly experienced, a hand shuffled baccarat shoe will most likely have a higher number of natural 7's, natural 8's, and natural 9's. Why? Think about how a deck of cards arrives from the manufacturer. And what does a higher number of naturals do for a baccarat game with high payout bets? IT TAKES THEM OUT.
Naturals also take out the hand right away with it more likely that less cards are dealt. There is no 'reduce' card for that side so many hands will be a knock out right from the start. I really have to go through the homework and check the posted stats as my house has both, but I noticed the difference in the section that changed to hand shuffle that night 100%. More Player natural 7's for sure. But these hand dealt baccarat shoes are still resulting in the same number of high 70's/ low 80's hands results.
On the other hand a shuffle machine will slice, dice, and mince cards randomly in a thorough way and with the fair cut and burn card process, it produces a better result. Baccarat shoes with the right shuffle and cut that result in a well above average amount of high payout bet wins did so because that process lined everything up just right and there are most likely average or below average naturals.
Every baccarat shoe will be unique with either approach, but at this point I have lost all confidence in playing hand shuffled games. The house has a view that there is no difference, and that should speak volumes.
I have no relationship and never have had any relationship with Shuffle Master or any other gaming system company other than as a player.