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[alrelax]

You are limited.....
The casino is not.

You are finite.....
The casino is not.

You are fragile.....
The casino is not.

You are emotional.....
The casino is not.

You are worried about losing your money.....
The casino is not.

Now with those few things in mind, onward.

Winning, losing and pushing.  Those are the only 3 things a player can do at the casino table.  There are no other outcomes.

The results that you experience at the table will not and cannot follow any sort of governed or stable distribution of presentments or results from the shoe.  Because the possibilities as we already established are far too great to narrow down to a certain section of 80 hands or a cumulative total of 160 or 320 or 640 or 5,000 hands, and so on, that will produce what we all are seeking, winning hands.  So many people will combat just that with their defense of Martingale or their application of any one of the numerous theorems or systems that they read about or believe in. 

Seriously people, the only way to profit is to smack the casino real hard and outweigh your losses in the attempt to get to that point, each time or at least every 2, 3 or 4 times you attempt playing.  IMO, there is no other way.  Unlike paper, the computer, trials, running tests, etc., you have finite capital, period.  No two ways about it.  The casino does not. 

Let's look at that for just one paragraph here.  You have a certain amount of money to risk losing in order to win some.  Period.  So you have a very short period of time in order to accomplish that during each session.  No matter how much that figure is, it is limited.  The casino does not.  The casino has massive amounts of capital in chips and the cash within the premises by state law, ready to pay every chip displayed on the floor.  FYI, every chip on every table no matter if open or closed, the casino has the green cash within their vaults or the chips would not be on the tables.  So, you cannot out play them by repeated buy ins with additional money, thinking you will turn things around in your favor and turn their lights out.  As well, stamina, energy, focus, motivation, vision, and everything else along those lines are also working against you.  The casino rotates its dealers every 20 mins or so, not just to avoid collusion with players, but also for exactly the same reasons I just mentioned.  Sitting in either one or two spots for a period of several hours is hard both physically and mentality in so many ways, especially with the focusing and thought process.  Then when things go bad for a player, he believes taking a break is great, but his mind is convinced he will miss that section of presentments yet to come with his winning hands, etc.  That starts a mean cycle and a cycle that is not very good for the player, great for the casino thou. 

Then we have the fact what we have discussed in detail so many times.  A negative game with a negative expectation.  IMO and my proven experience, if you have the proper risk capital and mind-frame along with a governed buy in that is a partial amount of your bank roll, coupled with the knowledge and the experience to manage your winnings into numerous chances that benefit yourself rather than the casino, then you have a chance to play numerous sessions and win money. 

But, IMO you have to master a way to hold wins, perform positive progressions and parlays, yet be able to risk without emotion or distress while walking away losing your buy in which has to be a partial amount of your bank roll, without it effecting you to the point that you regret it and dwell upon the loss.

The myths and the fallacies that exist on the internet regarding baccarat as well as casino gambling are astronomical!  People become delusional to their own thoughts.  They provide themselves no advantage to make themselves a sequence of wagering selections which they really believe they have.  They actually afford themselves no advantage and they limit their options by doing just that.  That is the sad part, all that learning and researching only convinced themselves of numerous ways to beat the casino, when none actually exist.  Especially in mathematical and statistical adherence.  Period. 

At this point so many will still believe and attempt to count the cards, keep track of the banker, the player, ties and other events the shoe produces.  Simply, if it worked like that, the casino would not offer cards, pens and the newer electronic scoreboards.  It does not, at least for the extreme upper 90% of the time you are there, if you employ it as a protocol for wagering or not wagering.  Will there be sections where the equaling out, or certain events happen because there was a deficiency of them prior to that?  Sure.  However, just as important and what becomes devastating, are the times and the sections that those very things were supposed to, or yet believed would come out and did not.  And, that my friend will happen a greater amount of times in the casino's favor, rather than the players advantage.  That is the reason why and the only reason why the casino provides you the equipment and the permission to track, score, calculate and take notes all you desire at the baccarat table. 

So what is one to do?  You have to develop a unique boldness or an advantage in select wagering when the presentments of the shoe offer the chance to win hands that will allow yourself to outweigh your losses in the attempt to win money.  There is really a chance for the player, once you figure that out and forget about the wager for such and such, because so and so just happened, or did not happen, type of play.  And, your boldness or advantage has to work on well less than 50% of your wagers and most importantly, on those that win!  That is why to myself, flat betting and negative progressions are not going to do anything for you, it will require far too many for any kind of stability whatsoever.  Read that once more, your unique boldness and your advantage has to work for you with small sections of shoe presentments, that will only occur in less than 50% of your wagers. And yes, less than 50%.

No matter what creative or Holy Grail angle you think you found, you will not bring it to the baccarat table and repeatedly beat the casino at the game.  No matter how perfect your counting is, no matter how perfect your data analyzation and tracking methods become, no matter how perfect you can sense something, etc.  If you continue to wager on any one or several types of wagers because of your expectation, that the presentment will match any type of theorem or system schedule, you are dead wrong and will be on a continuous basis.  Simply because the numbers of possible outcomes have too many possibilities for anything stable or predictable to happen on a consistent basis, whether that is in one shoe or multiple shoes of baccarat.  That is, if you continue playing past your first time anyway. 

You don't have to change yourself.  Or stop believing, or stop gambling, or stop questioning or stop applying yourself.  The whole trick to what will help you, is being totally conscious and putting yourself into a neutral state of playing, a natural state of focus, vision and mind frame.  Not even in the belief that a certain 'betselection' process will prevail over another. 

>>>It is about progressions, parlays and accumulating that amount each time or during a cumulative amount of times, that outweighs the variance, the house edge, your own default rate, etc., that you engage yourself in.<<< You have to figure out how each $100 you play with, will allow you to win after you lose a certain amount.  And IMO, experience and everything else combined, I found a certain way to be able to win at baccarat.  And that is to realize time, money, emotional, psychological and frame of mind all combined will determine how your decision making process allows you to accumulate and allocate your wins, and how you manage the losses that will happen.  Those that think and believe everything I just mentioned does not apply to them, are just wasting their time being here anyway.

[KungFuBac]

Very good essay and so true.
I like this from the above post:

"Read that once more, your unique boldness and your advantage has to work for you with small sections of shoe presentments, that will only occur in less than 50% of your wagers. And yes, less than 50%."


This reminds me of a recent session. Most all of us at the table were charting something on our scorecards (Everyone was at least marking XXXs and OOOs). Most of us were drawn down at  least a couple hundred it seemed(at least I was).
Along comes a very inebriated (and jolly) 35ish year old. I had noticed him across the pit sauntering along and watching several card games(as if trying to decide where to wager his last few chips). He comes up behind us while drinking a beer and beer foam seeping out one edge of his mouth. He is  slurring and says "well it looks like Ol Blue is in the lead" and places one of the three black chips he's holding on OlBlue. Player wins. He looks at the tote  a few seconds and says some phrase like "They say where there's one there's always two,...etc." Spmething along that line.
He parlays his previous W onto Blue again/ Wins. He then says "well Im finally ahead a hundred so time to get the F*** out of here" LOL.

The overzealous lady pitboss scolds him for using curse words and as he starts to walk away demands he color up at the table. He ignores her. He simply turns and walks away toward the cashier with the pit lady yelling at him to come back and color up. He simply waves at her with the back of his hand/tells everyone to "have a good evening". I watch him go acroos the casino to the cashier/ depart.

Most every one at the table chuckled and turned to watch him leave.  A player next to me elbowed me and just laughs at what just transpired. We all went back to our charting.


Continued Success,