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Forums => Baccarat Forum => Topic started by: soxfan on January 12, 2017, 04:36:33 PM

Title: Help a Cat Out
Post by: soxfan on January 12, 2017, 04:36:33 PM
Can anyone tell me how many tie decision are expected to pop in a standard 8 decks baccarats shoe, hey hey?
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 12, 2017, 04:43:56 PM
IMO, 8-11. 

Expected is subjective to whom is saying it. 

The past few weeks at one casino there has either been 4, 5 or 6 in a shoe or 14+, but those are not the 'norm'.  It will vary the same as B's and P's do. 

Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 12, 2017, 05:38:52 PM
I'm a roulette CAT

So pardon my ignorance


But can you play tie bet only with a progression safely in a shoe?

Answer is probably no. Can't be that easy
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: soxfan on January 12, 2017, 06:44:00 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 12, 2017, 05:38:52 PM
I'm a roulette CAT

So pardon my ignorance


But can you play tie bet only with a progression safely in a shoe?

Answer is probably no. Can't be that easy

Over the year I have seen a few cats run progression on the tie wager, hey hey.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: 21 Aces on January 12, 2017, 08:39:05 PM
I saw a player catch a double Tie for 5 figures.  They didn't really sweep that and their base wins though to well.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: owenslv on January 12, 2017, 10:08:52 PM
Banker Wins =    45
Player Wins =    37
Tie Wins =    5

Totals all Shoes
Banker Wins =    38384   0.458919
Player Wins =    37356   0.446628
Tie Wins =    7900   0.0944524

SOURCE: Wizard of Odds website - 1,000 8 deck shoe average
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: soxfan on January 12, 2017, 10:17:48 PM
Quote from: owenslv on January 12, 2017, 10:08:52 PM
Banker Wins =    45
Player Wins =    37
Tie Wins =    5

Totals all Shoes
Banker Wins =    38384   0.458919
Player Wins =    37356   0.446628
Tie Wins =    7900   0.0944524

SOURCE: Wizard of Odds website - 1,000 8 deck shoe average

Thanks for the informations, that was about what I figured, hey hey.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 12, 2017, 10:43:55 PM
5 ties would be extremely low on the average, really low.  I am not going to argue,  Go to a casino and look.

BTW, look at the same guys simulation of tens of thousands of shoes, each one contains thousands of sample games of bac.  Look at the ties in each.  As I said, it is more like 8-11.  Some shoes will finish with 4 or 5 or 6 and likewise, others will finish with 12-14.  I have seen 18.  But those are not the norm, a real good average would be 8 to 11, ask any regular player.


http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 12, 2017, 11:00:43 PM
Quote from: owenslv on January 12, 2017, 10:08:52 PM
Banker Wins =    45
Player Wins =    37
Tie Wins =    5

Totals all Shoes
Banker Wins =    38384   0.458919
Player Wins =    37356   0.446628
Tie Wins =    7900   0.0944524

SOURCE: Wizard of Odds website - 1,000 8 deck shoe average

Maybe I am wrong, I am not a mathematical wiz like yourself, but I see 1,000 shoes with a total of 7,900 total tie wins.  That might just be 7.9 average.  Not 5.  Okay, nice post citing 5.  Thanks.

I would also say it is 38 Bankers average, 37 Players average and 8 ties average per shoe, totaling 83 to 84 hands.  Not the way you quoted it with 87 hands and the wrong number of B's and P's.  Again, nice post.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: owenslv on January 13, 2017, 10:49:10 PM
Hey Team:

I think you may be right about the Tie bet total. I sent an email off to Michael ShakelWizard of Odds, the author of the info I posted. Let's see what he has to say.

"Hi Michael;

Greetings from Toronto, Canada.
Please refer to your link: https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/1000-baccarat-shoes-8-deck.txt

OK  the summary states:
Banker Wins =    45
Player Wins =    37
Tie Wins =    5

Totals all Shoes
Banker Wins =    38384   0.458919
Player Wins =    37356   0.446628
Tie Wins =    7900   0.0944524

Would you kindly confirm your conclusion of:
Tie Wins = 5
I think it's 7.89 (83640 X 0.0944524)

Thank you,

Garry Owens"

Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 14, 2017, 09:37:08 AM
I played last night, 4 shoes:

Somehow I paid attention to ties, it is about the only wager I almost never make, anyway because the other day I posted the response and stats about this, last night for example was: 9-12-8-13 for the total ties each shoe.  2 of the shoes did not even start ties until the 30th something hand, BTW.

Page down on the link for the Wizard's 1000 sample bac shoes.  Here are the first 50 total ties per shoe:

9
6
3
10
6
11
15
11
3
12
11
5
4
5
7
11
14
7
5
7
9
10
9
8
10
8
7
10
10
15
6
9
10
11
7
12
11
9
14
9
9
6
6
9
3
4
6
9
12


Sample shoes are just that and his stats are not reflective of what happens at any casino for a period of 3 or 5 or 10 shoes, etc.  But the established stats are at 7-8 ties.  One every 10 hands or so.  80 hands per shoe.  Odds reflect that as well.  If it was 5 it would have a pay out of 14 to 15 to 1 or so.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 14, 2017, 08:07:09 PM
So let's say you use a progression on tie bet

And win 2 hands a shoe. What type of progression would you need??

Obviously a high chip amount. You aren't gonna do this to make five dollars
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 14, 2017, 08:25:12 PM
Hands too far apart the majority of times.

Table limits on max as well as usually separate limits on tie bets. 

OMG, the casino already thought of this 40 to 50 years ago........................
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: soxfan on January 14, 2017, 09:07:31 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 14, 2017, 08:07:09 PM
So let's say you use a progression on tie bet

And win 2 hands a shoe. What type of progression would you need??

Obviously a high chip amount. You aren't gonna do this to make five dollars

In response to yer idea about running a serious progression on the tie bet I will pony up the following instructive quote, hey hey.

" To a dangerous place this line of thinking will lead us " Jedi Master Yoda
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: Nathan Detroit5 on January 15, 2017, 08:51:26 AM
Greed will sink  you.......
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 03:46:57 PM
Nothin is as ridiculous as Vince armenti betting B and P at same time
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: Nathan Detroit5 on January 15, 2017, 05:01:48 PM
Now, who is Vince Armenti ? There  must be a good reason to play B and P at the same time. . Nothing unusual about that under certain circumstances.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 15, 2017, 05:11:21 PM
I play at two of the local casinos around me, 1 place has unlimited free hands, the other will not do a free hand.  People wager the same on B and P to move the game all the time.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 06:37:31 PM
They allow you to bet p and b at the same time and they deal the cards?
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 15, 2017, 06:42:03 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 06:37:31 PM
They allow you to bet p and b at the same time and they deal the cards?

Every casino I every been to will, one form or another.  Especially the ones that do not allow 'free-hands'.  They always allow the same money from one player on both sides.  Some do it just to wager less on the side bets as well without wagering the min, Ex. $25 on B, $25 on P and $5 or $10 on Tie or Fortune or Panda.  At a $25 min, table.

Some casinos will only allow up to a certain amount on one side, such as $200 on B and $100 on P, up to 50% on one side max for example if wagering both.  However, a lot of properties of moved away from that rule.  Varies property to property. 
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 06:44:16 PM
Oh ok

I did not know that

I guess placing the same chip size on b and p is good if you are waiting for a trigger??

By the way this is who I meant:
https://youtu.be/re3BBJ3GOB4
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: Mr J on January 15, 2017, 10:55:46 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 12, 2017, 05:38:52 PM
I'm a roulette CAT

So pardon my ignorance


But can you play tie bet only with a progression safely in a shoe?

Answer is probably no. Can't be that easy

Is there anything you don't do which requires a PROGRESSION? (jeez) Still a rookie.

Ken
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 10:57:32 PM
Quote from: Mr J on January 15, 2017, 10:55:46 PM
Is there anything you don't do which requires a PROGRESSION? (jeez) Still a rookie.

Ken

Cool.

There's actually a conversation going on here

Much better off without your attacks. You child

Hopefully the mods seal your fate here as well you blabbering bafoon
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: Mr J on January 15, 2017, 11:19:13 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 10:57:32 PM
Cool.

There's actually a conversation going on here

Much better off without your attacks. You child


First you post....cool. I read it and you think, I move on. Then......you added to it.

That's old school RG, try it on someone else.

Ken
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 11:20:17 PM
You just attacked me for no reason out of nowhere

Then you play that pathetic card

With the roulette money you claim to make go see a psychiatrist



You're dismissed
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 11:23:27 PM
I'm not gonna derail this thread

And I'm not gonna cause trouble on this forum

So get the last word then get the hell out of here
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: Mr J on January 15, 2017, 11:23:42 PM
Quote from: RouletteGhost on January 15, 2017, 11:20:17 PM
You just attacked me for no reason out of nowhere

Then you play that pathetic card

With the roulette money you claim to make go see a psychiatrist



You're dismissed

May 27th, I'm looking forward to it. I need a PO box # (address) from you so I can send an anniversary card to you.

Ken
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: owenslv on January 23, 2017, 10:14:46 PM
"Hi Mike;

Thank you for your response.

What I was attempting to learn from your study is the average amount of ties in all of the hands you considered, not just the last shoe.

So, would it be correct to assume that in your study, of 1,000 shoes that one would, on average, encounter 7.89 ties (83640 X 0.0944524) ?

Sincerely,

Garry Owens"

"No.  The probability of a tie is 9.5156%, not 9.44%."

So, according to Mike Shackelford, Wizard of Odds, in his example of 1,000, 8-deck shoes you can expect an average of 9.5% ties.

Hope that helps everybody.
Title: Re: Help a Cat Out
Post by: alrelax on January 23, 2017, 11:08:11 PM
So, I came off the wall with 8-11 and got challenged and then some 'expert' claims about 9.5%, which should translate according to his figures, right at 8 ties per shoe.

Maybe he can explain Plateaus and Turning Points??

Why do I even answer posts?