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[alrelax]

IMO, in my experience and in my study of the author and other like him--he is both full of 'poo-poo' and full of facts.  I am sorry, I won't write an answer the same as Sputnik where he precisely gives you exact figures and numbers and $ amounts, etc.  IMO, gamblers fallacy is quite different for me--you---him and everyone.  I might have found bliss and nirvana with 6 wagers in the first 20 hands wagering hundreds or thousands of dollars on a certain chain of events, or I might be doing exactly what you do and lose almost every single I time I gamble.  So five times $20 win or a loss of $500.00 means something entirely different and/or might not even exist for me or the person reading this.  But, everything else is basically the same. 

When he says things like:  "Unfortunately, the bankroll sufficiency and win goal criteria conflict with one another. Low bets boost the likelihood of surviving a session but decrease the chance of reaching any selected plateau before going broke. High bets have the opposite effect. Bet size is therefore a compromise. Seasoned gamblers know from experience what it takes to endure and what profit levels are reasonable. But these factors can also be determined mathematically for any game, using "risk of ruin" principles.", he is pretty much spot on, but it is more realistic factual events he is reciting that happen at playing baccarat and most gambling--than anything else.  I don't get along with his figures and stats--but that really doesn't matter.

I can do something 10 times in 10 sessions at baccarat when I play and you can't copy it 1 time when you play.  Then again those same exact things I did those 10 times, I could not accomplish the next 30 times I play the game.  That is the way the game is, period.  The reason being is 'Random'.  The game of baccarat is not like a female.  Whereas a female will tolerate your stuff and your ill-will until she cannot take anymore.  And baccarat is then like the female.  Some will stay with you and give and give and give and some will not.  The game of baccarat is no different. 

The author you cite also says somewhere in his writings, "600 rounds in the expected 4 hours of play".  Well the expected 4 hours is derived from 4 hours of play for our rating to award and assign your comps and level of promotional rebates, etc.  There is no way possible anyone can play 600 rounds of baccarat in 4 hours.  One on one where the dealers are very experienced and the players are pushing real hard with no breaks whatsoever, a player doing that--might get right at 1 shoe every 45 to 55 min's.  So in 4 hours I cannot see getting much more than 4 1/2 shoes which would be right at 360 rounds played.  There is NO WAY to play 600 rounds of baccarat and I am figuring mini not midi/Macau style (LOL).  A shoe takes right at 2 hours without problems arising when there is a few people playing.  The reason I bring this is, is the source of the info you are citing.  He is not a player, he is an author, he writes and he dreams in so many aspects.  His info is not spot on and he generalizes, good for a purpose but not for me or you to base decisions off of.  Like so many casino witters. 

Try going on some other forums and write real gambling info.  You will not last long!  Write about the $20.00 front desk poo-poo or getting drunk at a bar and losing $5,000.00 or a promo code for a 2 for 1 deal, and you are a hero and well loved.  Write real gambling info and you threaten them in so many aspects.  You won't last.

Back to his figures.  He gets a pen and pad out and plays on a sample baccarat game.  Multiples, compounds and divides, that is where 99% of his and others like him--their figures come from.  If you believe they translate blindly to all gamblers, you are naive.  If what I do in everyone of my sessions is what you or anyone else will do also, you are also naive. 

Another pet peeve of mine on the boards here.  There are always a few members (on here as well) that stand fast at saying nothing.  Also saying something and it is also generic and usually negative and as well, they insinuate how they make so much money and a real living at gambling just because  of their huge bankroll and their persistency.  It does not happen and if it does, it is for a much smaller, an extremely smaller period of time as to what they claim.  One of them is a forum author under the name of 'AxelWolf' or something like that.  He knows everything, everyone, played everything, a pro gambler, a pro writer and pretty wealthy.  So be it, all cool.  But when you begin to believe what they say, how they interpret what you write, how they degrade and humiliate, how they claim fame to their gambling and how almost if not everyone is lying or not telling the truth when they write, etc., etc., you fall into a rut--a bad rut that will stop you fom realizing what you might without juggling their garbage and distinctly 'bad' info they write to be at the forefront of their non-paid authorship's. 

So, to say you have a $1,000 buy-in and you should make a certain % within 4-6 hours, is a huge derogatory roadblock you are throwing up and usually will not meet.  Can a certain % be achieved in a certain time frame for a certain amount of buy-in/ban roll?  Sure!  Can it be done with certainty and consistency, NO.  No possible phys-cal way, none what's over.  That is where you will go wrong and hurt yourself.  When you realize gambling is no different than other jobs, you will improve yourself and your results hundreds and hundreds of percents over those that sit down at a casino table and think they know the order of the cards coming out based on the previous hands or a mechanical system, etc. 

In closing and off this subject.  When a police officer goes to work, the same beat, the same neighborhood, the same time era, etc., he might not have 2 days alike for a period of time.  Then again he might have the same types of calls on the same streets for a period of time as well.  When a mechanic goes into work, he might not have the same types of jobs for day or weeks at a time and then again, he might have such duplicates for several days it seems literally impossible, but it is not.  I used to own a heavy wrecker service up in the bad lands of the upper Midwest.  Something,  might not get two calls alike for quite some time, then again, I might get 4 calls exactly the same within 24 hours within my service area.  The story is endless.  Gambling is no different. 

The problem is, greed, money, chips, comp, high life, getting rich, easy living, quitting a normal job, money falling from the sky because  I am so smart, etc., etc., etc., and so on--gets to us all, all of us at the table!  When I sit down at the baccarat table and buy-in say with $1,000.00 and throw $250.00 up on the Banker and it hits, then I parlay it on hand 2 and put another $250.00 and my $750.00 wager wins again and I repeat the same thing for a 1-3-2-6 positive progression and I hit a mini streak of 8 Bankers, I won a total of $3,000.00.

One the other hand, someone sits down and wagers for the 'cut' because  he believes baccarat cuts and equals out, etc., etc., and so on.  He loses his $10.00 wager when I won the $250.00 the first time.  Then he loses $20.00, $40.00, $80.00, $160.00, $320.00, $640.00, $1280.00 and finally when he wagered $2,560.00 he won and that win amount was a hotdog and a coke and barely his gas money to the casino after risking $5,047.00.  Good thing he had a total bankroll of $5,200.00 he brought with him, huh?  But I will not bring up Carlos, George and Axel that wagered 6 times each and each one lost their total bankrolls of $630.00 each!  (I brought up the '6' times because so many people of these boards cite how they have a 5 or 6 wager stop-loss, etc).

People gamble and totally expect to make a living at it.  I guess some can and most cannot.  I have never attempted to make a living at it and would not under any circumstances.  For myself, I see no satisfaction at hanging out everyday in a casino with absolutely no security whatsoever, no references, no health care, no financial security, and many other things that a regular job, career or owning a business produces for those that work hard and know how to handle them.  And yes, with the 'straight' way of life--meaning a regular career not gambling, can one be assured of financial security and always having his job or business to go to the next day?  If you don't do drugs, drink, cheat, lie, steal, rip-off your employer or your clients, etc. etc., etc., IMO--a lot higher percentage than being a successful and rich gambler, living off a casino or two with no responsibilities. Again, IMO.

People will not, at least the highest majority of them by far-and I mean the highest majority, be able to understand the variance(s) of the games they play, luck, being in the right spot at the right time, mistaking their wins for 100% skill and knowledge, being able to interpret every situation in every casino at any table they sit down at, know when to stay away, know when to re-buy in successfully, know when to stop because  of losing or winning, etc., etc., etc.,  with 100% accuracy and there in lies your problem with most people gambling.  Of course many will write that they do, such as 'AxelWolf' or the guy that owns 'BeatTheCasino' ( ) for example and a few others (from Canada, cough-cough) like those people, they see themselves as a cross between Alexander Bell and Benjamin Franklin, as compared to the rest of everyone else that those people label and say are just 'peons' and 'suckers'.   

[Sputnik]

21 Aces - with the example i post is 20% win out of 100 invested ...
We know is hard to win and most members lose there money and don't stand a chanse.

Lets take a look at two examples how to handle money, my personal favorites.

How to determine your base bet based upon your bankrolls size!

Most members are dorks and don't follow this simple principal that would make them stay in the game much longer.
They would for sure start to see the relation between winning targers and losing limits.

Assume we have 3000$ bankroll.
This we would be very stupid to risk it all and bring everyting to the casino.

So we split the bankroll in three parts and take 1000$ with us to the casino.
That is our daily bankroll.

Now we split the bankroll into five parts with 200$ for each session game during our visit.
This does not mean we will play five sessions.

Now we have to set a loss limit around 40/50% so that would give us 100$ to operate with for each session.
Good news is no matter if you win or lose it all you will bring 500$ with you home and can never be wipe out.

There is a mental reason for this.
You could bring 500$ and lose it all and go home with empty pockets or empty wallet.
The mental stress would make you feel bad.
But still having the felling to bring home 500$ and think there is another day and another bet.
Make mental strenght and dicipline to the gambler.

Now we have 100$.
We can not play the baccarat as the minimum is 25$
We can not play the outside bets - roulette - minimum is 10$ (maybe if some one flat betting)

This determine our bet size with a 3000$ bankroll - you can play everyting between 10$ 5$ 3$ 2$ 1$ depending on staking plan and strategy.
Most players with that kind of bankroll would end up playing the air ball machine with lower minium.

This is how i handle my money with sportbetting and casino games.
No need to talk fiction or facts as this is reallity of gambling.

Brett Mortons Moneymangement Strategy

This is the best solution i find regarding money managment - Brett Mortons Money Management Method - from the book "Playing to win".

I find Brett Morton's "Fund Management" being very clever.
Does not just sett a limit for stop loss with win goal - it also show when to push for jackpot (push for more).
It also has built in safety net that catch before it is to late (avoid to lose it all back).

With all the necessary componets to define a present session.
When to start when to quit when to push or be catch by a safety net before its to late.

PROGRESS UP THE LADDER - PLAY AND PUSH OR FALL INTO SAFETY NETS



Now what amount make me happy - i would say for example 50 Euro, that would feel ok or great.
So that should be my Happy-Point,,, the first win-target.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

This is how Brett Morton does it.
But nothing prevent us to set higher loss-limit and lower Happy-Point.

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL (bottom line target) 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

That would mean i would have 40 to fight with to reach my secound win-target (Gold-Top).
And if i would lose it all back, then i would stop with +10 as my safety net (Bottom-Line-Target).

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i win and don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits (that would be 20).
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Brett Morton say that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
But he also say he stop playing many times before he reach first win-target.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target.

So when you walk into the casino or at home you make up your money management plan.

Loss-Limit
Bottom-Line-Target
Happy-Point
Gold-Top
Jackpot

Now you can look at the image again and you will understand.
Above is just one example to describe method.

[21 Aces]

So there is more weight being added to having a baseline bet size at 1% or less of risk capital to play.

[alrelax]

Who are you?  What are your experiences?  What are you looking for?  What pushes your buttons?  Etc.

Does your '$300.00 buy-in' have the  same exact 'meaning', 'value' and 'takes the same amount of time to obtain' as it does for me? 

Is your purpose to put food on the table later in the day and pay your basic bills as what my purpose and goals are for going to the casino to win money?

Is your experience in the game itself the exact same and we also believe in the same pending results and that the published statistics will happen each and every session?

Those and numerous other questions are all pertinent in comparing yourself to another or attempting to realize what you might be looking for as compared to another at the exact same casino table!  IMO, no two people are alike and someone that has a $1,000.00 bank roll and risks $300.00 a session and feels comfortable and confident wagering $50.00 or more a bet, might not have his protocols approved/endorsed by someone that believes you have to have a $3,000.00 bank roll and you can only wager 1% per bet for say, $30.00 wagers at the most or you doom yourself into being a 'dork' and proved how you are uneducated with the game.

You know, it is with the limited thinking of the one that says you are a 'dork' because he beliefs in something more textbook or that was written and published on the internet by a mathematician or a statistician that self-proclaims themselves, baccarat experts, etc.  The only reason I say this is because just the other day, yesterday in fact, I read something on the Wizard of Odds website gambling message forum talk board.  That was the self-proclaimed and highly recognized 'Wizard' himself had almost no idea of the baccarat.  Rather than trying to recall what the 'Wizard' himself wrote, I rather just quote him.  And yet, so many people quote his numbers and stats as to the game of baccarat as true gospel. 

Here is what he said: 

"Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009

    Threads: 1018
    Posts: 17062

January 27th, 2018 at 10:59:33 AM
permalink

    Quote: malioil

    Hello everyone,

    I am wondering if anyone has an idea of where one can find big table baccarat in Las Vegas, where you can touch the cards, and what the table minimums would be for such a game?

    Many thanks.

(And the answer from the 'Wizard was):

This has been said before, but if you truly want the big table, the one bigger than pool table, all the big Strip casinos have it but expect minimums of at least $100. If you just care about touching the cards, you can play Midi Baccarat. You can probably find that at $50 minimum on the Strip and $25 at some off Strip casinos. I'd recommend the Gold Coast and Palace Station."

And then there is his other posting as well:

"Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009

    Threads: 1018
    Posts: 17062

January 27th, 2018 at 11:05:23 AM
permalink

    Quote: gamerfreak

    I think big table implies that the shoe is passed around the table and the players deal the cards.


(And the answer from the 'Wizard' was):

I must confess I've never actually played baccarat at a big table. In fact, I have played almost no baccarat at all, as it is a boring coin-flip game. However, and correct me if I'm wrong, a dealer still deals the cards at the big table. I think it is in the James Bond movies where the player does it. I suppose they did it that way in Europe at one time."

The 'Wizard' has no idea what he wrote about and cited with such certainty, accuracy and 'Wizardship' that so many hold in awe and naturally take his words and posts with gospel. 

So, who are you?  Where have you been, what have you truly played, what styles and types of the casino game are you actually familiar with and have years of experience with??, etc., etc., and so on.  To me and my people, those are very logical questions and pre-requisites to knowing the answers of before we put our money and risk on what they wrote and said in a forum or anything else, whether that is a book, an essay or something they are attempting to sell and so on.  But most people don't ask those questions, they take that 5,000 or 10,000 posts on a message board as sheer expert gospel and religious truth.  And I just showed you 2 quotes from the 'Wizard' himself who is idolized and quoted by thousands of members of gambling boards in relationship to his statistics.  To me, sitting at a true 'big table' and knowing why someone wager thousands of dollars on a Banker side because the shoe comes around (sorry not just to James Bond in Europe for the movies Mr. Wizard) the table and knowing what I do, might not convince me the Banker side is the best wager to make.  On the other hand people will cite a statistic and such statistic came from the analyzation of 1,000,000 shoes that has absolutely nothing to do with the 2 or 4 shoes you happen to be sitting down to play at your local casino.  But all those people know is that they read on the message board by the Wizard how one side will have a certain advantage over another side because of such and such as proven by the statistics he wrote, etc.

One thing I did love and is so true and so helpful is the following:  "It's only negative in the overall, you should apply an adaptable, flexible strategy which prolongs winnings as much as possible on favorable sessions and circumvents losses as soon as possible on not favorable sessions."

But, almost all players do not know how to prolong a winning and circumvent losing.  I admit, when I first started playing baccarat I did not, I repeat—'I DID NOT', but I learned and I perfected a money management system that as long as I stick to it, 100% guarantees me to take advantage of the winning and will tap me on the shoulder and tells me to end the session when the losing time arrives. 

Among other things, immediately coming to mind is:

•   Stop loss.  Buy-in with $500.00, lose $250.00 and knowing I have to stop.  That is super mentally taxing and negative, you know, IMO it is absurd and contributes to the downfall you will face rather than helping you with confidence and comfort. 
•   Buy-in is risk capital versus a pre-set, believed 'best chance' is such and such, etc. and if I lose a certain portion of the buy-in I will save the rest and leave the casino.  What you do is remove all positive and energetic safeguards and install knives and walls that harm your vision and thoughts to building anything north of your buy-in.  I have been there and done all that, great in theory to have a stop loss but all it does is hurt you beyond belief.
•   1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management System will allow you to capitalize and recapitalize on any favorable, unstoppable, unchangeable situations that arise and present themselves while you are winning.
•   "Adjust so my downside is protected".  I was asked that by the person I wrote this for.  Therefore, it is pure common sense and only smart, but gamblers become desperate to recover or become whole with their losses of the day or previously added up, either or both.  Then all those statistics and things they read by the members on the forums and in the purchased systems or books, are subscribed to and those statistics and events preached or taught—will limit and curtail the that player from realizing what is actually happening in front of himself.

Sure, adjust.  Slow down, don't wager or whatever.  But to subscribe to a certain percentage of your bank roll or buy-in is absolutely insane.  The correlation you are searching for cannot be estimated or controlled by percentages.  It has to be done by the human mind from experiences, feelings and knowledge as to what the presentments are and not what has to be produced in order to be successful.

Wagering a percentage and believing in 'safety nets' is a huge false self-pacifying and artificial comfort level that will ultimately lead you straight to gamblers ruin without being able to recapitalize your losses you were forced to endure or you endured because you were forced to stop gambling to abide by your stop loss, etc. and stay within your 'safety net'.   Through a false belief of safety whereupon a payday might never show up, you clouded your vision and you cut yourself short to save your risk capital for another day.  Why risk it in the first place.  Whom is to say the bottom half of that buy-in cannot win just because the top half failed to do so? 

In closing, what you are actually doing is setting yourself for the destiny to maintain your bankroll or buy-in as long as possible rather than having the guts and the cojones (spelled correctly BTW) and you are actually turning yourself into a shmegegge (also spelled correctly BTW) while you give piece by piece of your bank roll or buy-ins to the casino and recoup those at another time--maybe (?) but probably not because all you are really doing is scaring yourself from actually winning and winning huge that makes it all worthwhile, rather than exercising your experience to pounce on it and allow yourself to profit at the easiest game in the casino that will produce anything and everything from a 15 hand or greater chop-chop to a 15 or 20 repeating streak of one side whereupon you can literally and physically multiply your bank roll or buy-in by hundreds and hundreds of percent rather than limiting yourself to a trivial and minute portion of what is possible, all in the name of safety and comfort. 


So, in all actuality--I am just a 'dork' and I should be playing something called an 'air ball machine' whatever the f**k that is!

[Sputnik]

Everyone is by him self - you can not trusth junk gambling forum boards - what works for me might not work for others - internet is free to share and is up to the reader to make a reality check.

For example a Sportbetting Service i use recommended 20$ as base bet with 2000$ investment/bankroll - they have 107.4 ROI and still i did decide to use 10$ as my base bet.
The return of investment would be much greater if i took 20$ as base bet  - flat betting - and would give me plenty of room for variance with 100 bets.

Guess what i am not making a living playing Sportbetting service - i use it as option to the stockmarket with better return.
Stockmarket with safe placement would give 3 to 7% and then tax on the winnings during one year period.

Sportbetting Service give me 20% or higher return of investment during one year with no tax on the winnings - still i did not use 20$ as base bet.
Reason is risk management - i have seen the stats with 107.4 ROI with 3000 placed bets and read recommendation from others - still i don't put all eggs in one basket and go all in.

I reckon if there would be a bad year with much variance, then i would maybe be down a little, but it would effect my daily mood and feelings placing 20$ each bet.
Some days you place everything from 30 to 300 with 10$ base bet and with 20$ it would be 60 to 600 and would give me mental stress.

Did not want the variance to effect me and just wanted to place bets with little worry or mental stress and still getting return of investment.
Now if some one would use 20$ as a base bet he would not be a dork and maybe have a better way handle mental stress then me.

Cheers

[21 Aces]

A good number of players that have big ranges in their bet size seem to do well.  Very interesting to watch.

No look on a hand:
Free hand or xiao xiao.

Confidence:
$200 - $1,000 range.

Strong Confidence:
Several thousand on up.

Lots of xiao xiao...

Enough:
Time to jet.


Further proof that as many post, baccarat is not an IF THEN EQUALS world is that the house will take down this type of action 24/ 7.

[21 Aces]

More discussion of percentages, bet size, etc. all throughout the forum, but as with many aspects of baccarat, there are older threads that are still around and buried deep into the list.

[alrelax]

How Much Should You Bet at Baccarat?
\

Fun and (Table) Games: Try Baccarat
By Alan Krigman

http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/article/fun-and-table-games-try-baccarat-14833

SERIOUSLY?   Where do these gurus get their figures from.  A mini bac table with the dealer flipping the cards, not Midi, but mini, takes no less than 1.5 hours at a fast table, unless you are playing one on one with the dealer and pushing the dealers and have your wager ready and never hesitate or take a break and walk away.  That does not happen, sorry. 

But 4 hours and he is quoting 600 rounds.  That is 7.5 shoes!!!  WTF??  Seriously, 7.5 shoes in four hours and you guys eat this stuff up as these gurus write their bogus, non-real play articles like the Wizard of my dirty underwear does??  Again, WTF?

" of a normal four hour session -- about 600 rounds."  Really?  600 rounds in a normal casino without any snags, stops, security breaches, larger players buying in for over $10,000.00 and having no CTR on file and the pit stops the game to fill one out, etc.  600 rounds is at least 12 hours, IMO and experience, etc.   A normal 4 hour session is much more like, 160-200 rounds or so.  But hey, he is the guru the same as Wizard and a few others such as the 15,000-20,000 plus posters at some of the other boards.

But  hey, go ahead and quote him and the Wizard and others and worse yet--believe them and risk your money doing same.  They use statistics that might be correct in a general sense, but have no real conversion to casino gambling that can possibly hold true, universally and consistently.  It is the same thing as picking a random 100 women and saying they all have a passion to perform oral sex on men. True, 100 women might and it very well might not be those, but some group of 100 women do.  LOL.

[soxfan]

At my local the mini bac shoe can get reeled off in 40-45 minute, hey hey.

[alrelax]

Sure, 33 seconds a hand including a dealer mandatory waiting period of something for players to wager, the swoop to cut off the waiting period, the deal, the payout, discards as well as repeated player buy-ins and floor approvals, etc., etc., etc.  Oh yeah, mandatory dealer changes every 15 or 20 minutes at every single casino there is.  Sure thing, 33 seconds a hand, repeatedly, shoe after shoe.  Not including dealer mistakes and mandatory floor involvement, etc.  Other things as well.  Sure thing, 45 minuets a shoe, every shoe.  Yea.  Of course.     "You say Hey-Hey, but I like the saying poo-poo".  Keep it real. 

[soxfan]

Seriously, how long does it take to change dealers, hey hey???

[21 Aces]

I concur on pace of play and didn't see that at first until it was pointed out by alrelax.  I bumped this thread to show discussions on percentages, but there's more out there.  Always helpful for everyone to search.