IMO, in my experience and in my study of the author and other like him--he is both full of 'poo-poo' and full of facts. I am sorry, I won't write an answer the same as Sputnik where he precisely gives you exact figures and numbers and $ amounts, etc. IMO, gamblers fallacy is quite different for me--you---him and everyone. I might have found bliss and nirvana with 6 wagers in the first 20 hands wagering hundreds or thousands of dollars on a certain chain of events, or I might be doing exactly what you do and lose almost every single I time I gamble. So five times $20 win or a loss of $500.00 means something entirely different and/or might not even exist for me or the person reading this. But, everything else is basically the same.
When he says things like: "Unfortunately, the bankroll sufficiency and win goal criteria conflict with one another. Low bets boost the likelihood of surviving a session but decrease the chance of reaching any selected plateau before going broke. High bets have the opposite effect. Bet size is therefore a compromise. Seasoned gamblers know from experience what it takes to endure and what profit levels are reasonable. But these factors can also be determined mathematically for any game, using "risk of ruin" principles.", he is pretty much spot on, but it is more realistic factual events he is reciting that happen at playing baccarat and most gambling--than anything else. I don't get along with his figures and stats--but that really doesn't matter.
I can do something 10 times in 10 sessions at baccarat when I play and you can't copy it 1 time when you play. Then again those same exact things I did those 10 times, I could not accomplish the next 30 times I play the game. That is the way the game is, period. The reason being is 'Random'. The game of baccarat is not like a female. Whereas a female will tolerate your stuff and your ill-will until she cannot take anymore. And baccarat is then like the female. Some will stay with you and give and give and give and some will not. The game of baccarat is no different.
The author you cite also says somewhere in his writings, "600 rounds in the expected 4 hours of play". Well the expected 4 hours is derived from 4 hours of play for our rating to award and assign your comps and level of promotional rebates, etc. There is no way possible anyone can play 600 rounds of baccarat in 4 hours. One on one where the dealers are very experienced and the players are pushing real hard with no breaks whatsoever, a player doing that--might get right at 1 shoe every 45 to 55 min's. So in 4 hours I cannot see getting much more than 4 1/2 shoes which would be right at 360 rounds played. There is NO WAY to play 600 rounds of baccarat and I am figuring mini not midi/Macau style (LOL). A shoe takes right at 2 hours without problems arising when there is a few people playing. The reason I bring this is, is the source of the info you are citing. He is not a player, is is an author, he writes and he dreams in so many aspects. His info is not spot on and he generalizes, good for a purpose but not for me or you to base decisions off of. Like so many casino witters.
Try going on some other forums and write real gambling info. You will not last long! Write about the $20.00 front desk poo-poo or getting drunk at a bar and losing $5,000.00 or a promo code for a 2 for 1 deal, and you are a hero and well loved. Write real gambling info and you threaten them in so many aspects. You won't last.
Back to his figures. He gets a pen and pad out and plays on a sample baccarat game. Multiples, compounds and divides, that is where 99% of his and others like him--their figures come from. If you believe they translate blindly to all gamblers, you are naive. If what I do in everyone of my sessions is what you or anyone else will do also, you are also naive.
Another pet peeve of mine on the boards here. There are always a few members (on here as well) that stand fast at saying nothing. Also saying something and it is also generic and usually negative and as well, they insinuate how they make so much money and a real living at gambling just becuase of their huge bankroll and their persistency. It does not happen and if it does, it is for a much smaller, an extremely smaller period of time as to what they claim. One of them is a forum author under the name of 'AxelWolf' or something like that. He knows everything, everyone, played everything, a pro gambler, a pro writer and pretty wealthy. So be it, all cool. But when you begin to believe what they say, how they interpret what you write, how they degrade and humiliate, how they claim fame to their gambling and how almost if not everyone is lying or not telling the truth when they write, etc., etc., you fall into a rut--a bad rut that will stop you fom realizing what you might without juggling their garbage and distinctly 'bad' info they write to be at the forefront of their non-paid authorship's.
So, to say you have a $1,000 buy-in and you should make a certain % within 4-6 hours, is a huge derogatory roadblock you are throwing up and usually will not meet. Can a certain % be achieved in a certain time frame for a certain amount of buy-in/ban roll? Sure! Can it be done with certainty and consistency, NO. No possible phys-cal way, none what's over. That is where you will go wrong and hurt yourself. When you realize gambling is no different than other jobs, you will improve yourself and your results hundreds and hundreds of percents over those that sit down at a casino table and think they know the order of the cards coming out based on the previous hands or a mechanical system, etc.
In closing and off this subject. When a police officer goes to work, the same beat, the same neighborhood, the same time era, etc., he might not have 2 days alike for a period of time. Then again he might have the same types of calls on the same streets for a period of time as well. When a mechanic goes into work, he might not have the same types of jobs for day or weeks at a time and then again, he might have such duplicates for several days it seems literally impossible, but it is not. I used to own a heavy wrecker service up in the bad lands of the upper Midwest. Something, might not get two calls alike for quite some time, then again, I might get 4 calls exactly the same within 24 hours within my service area. The story is endless. Gambling is no different.
The problem is, greed, money, chips, comp, high life, getting rich, easy living, quitting a normal job, money falling from the sky becuase I am so smart, etc., etc., etc., and so on--gets to us all, all of us at the table! When I sit down at the baccarat table and buy-in say with $1,000.00 and throw $250.00 up on the Banker and it hits, then I parlay it on hand 2 and put another $250.00 and my $750.00 wager wins again and I repeat the same thing for a 1-3-2-6 positive progression and I hit a mini streak of 8 Bankers, I won a total of $3,000.00.
One the other hand, someone sits down and wagers for the 'cut' becuase he believes baccarat cuts and equals out, etc., etc., and so on. he loses his $10.00 wager when I won the $250.00 the first time. Then he loses $20.00, $40.00, $80.00, $160.00, $320.00, $640.00, $1280.00 and finally when he wagered $2,560.00 he won and was a hotdog and a coke and barely his gas money to the casino ahead after risking $5,047.00. Good thing he had a total bankroll of $5,200.00 he brought with him, huh? But I will not bring up Carlos, George and Axel that wagered 6 times each and each one lost their total bankrolls of $630.00 each! (I brought up the '6' times because so many people of these boards cite how they have a 5 or 6 wager stop-loss, etc).
People gamble and totally expect to make a living at it. I guess some can and most cannot. I have never attempted to make a living at it and would not under any circumstances. For myself, I see no satisfaction at hanging out everyday in a casino with absolutely no security whatsoever, no references, no health care, no financial security, and many other things that a regular job, career or owning a business produces for those that work hard and know how to handle them. And yes, with the 'straight' way of life--meaning a regular career not gambling, can one be assured of financial security and always having his job or business to go to the next day? If you don't do drugs, drink, cheat, lie, steal, rip-off your employer or your clients, etc. etc., etc., IMO--a lot higher percentage than being a successful and rich gambler, living off a casino or two with no responsibilities. Again, IMO.
People will not, at least the highest majority of them by far-and I mean the highest majority, be able to understand the variance(s) of the games they play, luck, being in the right spot at the right time, mistaking their wins for 100% skill and knowledge, being able to interpret every situation in every casino at any table they sit down at, know when to stay away, know when to re-buy in successfully, know when to stop becuase of losing or winning, etc., etc., etc., with 100% accuracy and there in lies your problem with most people gambling. Of course many will write that they do
, such as 'AxelWolf' or the guy that owns 'BeatTheCasino' (
) for example and a few others (from Canada, cough-cough) like those people, they see themselves as a cross between Alexander Bell and Benjamin Franklin, as compared to the rest of everyone else that those people label and say are just 'peons' and 'suckers'.