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How to determine what size units you should be playing

Started by CT70, April 08, 2019, 04:55:12 AM

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CT70

First you will need to determine 3 important numbers to do the calculation.
1. Your Total Bank Roll
2. Acceptable Loss Per Shoe (expressed as a percentage of lifetime bank roll) 
3. Your desired Stop loss per shoe (expressed in full units).

For example:
5% loss per shoe will allow you to have 20 losing shoes (100/5),
10% loss per shoe will allow you to have 10 losing shoes (100/10).
2.5% loss per shoe will allow you to have 40 losing shoes (100/2.5)

It is important to note that this calculation ideally, should be performed after every shoe, won and lost.
In the case of a winning shoe, your bank roll will have grown slightly and ultimately you could start playing your next shoe with larger units. Conversely, after a losing shoe, recalculation will dictate how much you will need to reduce your unit size to preserve the risk factor that you originally started with.

Example 1:
Total BR = $10,000
Loss per shoe = 5%
Stop loss per shoe = 4 (full units)

Convert loss per shoe to dollars.  (10000 x 5%) = $500

Now just take Loss per shoe in dollars and divide by Unit Stop Loss

$500/4 units = $125 units

Example 2:
Total BR = $7,000
Loss per shoe =10%
Stop loss per shoe = 7 (full units)

Convert loss per shoe to dollars.  (7000 x 10%) = $700

Now just take Loss per shoe in dollars and divide by Unit Stop Loss

$700/7 units = $100 units


To summarize:
(Total BR x Loss per shoe % ) / Stop loss = Unit Size

alrelax

I do appreciate your input and I hope you stick around. 

I would like to add, as Mod/Admin of BetSelection, when it comes to direct statements about a player's investment, bank rolls, buy ins and money risked, please do so from your own stand point and attempt to make your posting your opinion, your experience and in no way guarantee to provide success or advantage to a player's chance to profit in the game. 

Please do not attempt to make it like science, a better chance to succeed, a proven fact of advantage over someone choosing another formula or compound of numbers, etc.

I hope I was clear and I am not in anyway chastising you for posting your example.  Thanks again for your input. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 36,951 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

THE PURPOSE OF GAMING IS TO WIN!

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

Johno-Egalite

Interesting post CT70

Having read it, one thing sticks out, how is the player betting, FLAT, Positive?

I do not subscribe to anybody getting the better of this game flat betting, not ever, in the long term, Parlays and part Parlays will leave you just as frustrated as a blown negative progression.  Been there, tried that.

So to suggest a stop loss of 4 or 7 units in a shoe is a viable way to play, is fanciful to say the least.

It is a negative expectant game, with thousands of dollars bankroll at my disposal I'm looking for the cheapest tables, because I would have plenty of backup should the need arise. I can bet the bigger units later, after I've blown the  we're units if the need arises. I may not win $5000 in any given session, but would be $5k up at the end of the week.
Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.  I use the names Junket, Junket King, Lugi, Mark Teruya, Rolex, Relex, Rolex Watch, Mark, Eaglite, JohnO & More depending on what day it is and whom I am attempting to be!

CT70

Lugi, 4 to 7 unit stop loss is pretty steep. Why not start with half units until you get to plus 1 or +1.5 before you make your first full unit bet? Set your stop loss at -2.5 to -3. That gives you 5 to 6 chances to get it right.  If you get positive before going below -3, then stay in the shoe, if you don't start winning and you hit your -3, then you probably shouldn't be in THAT shoe anyway.

Johno-Egalite

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 06:12:15 PM
Lugi, 4 to 7 unit stop loss is pretty steep. Why not start with half units until you get to plus 1 or +1.5 before you make your first full unit bet? Set your stop loss at -2.5 to -3. That gives you 5 to 6 chances to get it right.  If you get positive before going below -3, then stay in the shoe, if you don't start winning and you hit your -3, then you probably shouldn't be in THAT shoe anyway.

I do not need, nor did I request your advice regarding MM or what to do with MY MONEY.  -3, walk away, both laughable and ludicrous. 
Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.  I use the names Junket, Junket King, Lugi, Mark Teruya, Rolex, Relex, Rolex Watch, Mark, Eaglite, JohnO & More depending on what day it is and whom I am attempting to be!

Jimske

CT70, Mind if I ask what your strike rate is and your average number of bets per shoe?  Thanks.

J

CT70

I call it Hit Rate but I?m sure strike rate means the same. It?s 65%.
I play less than half of all the hands in a shoe.

Johno-Egalite

Quote from: CT70 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:11 PM
I call it Hit Rate but I?m sure strike rate means the same. It?s 65%.
I play less than half of all the hands in a shoe.

Unless you can back that up, it is just grandstanding, empty words on the internet. I (we) can all play shoes that return hit rates greater than 60, 70, 80%, I made reference to a shoe I played online, won 7 lost 1 (87.5%). Can I achieve that consistently, no chance in hell I can.  I wouldn't even want to, rather, would be more interested and more focused on handling those shoes that only produce a high 40% win rate, because I'm a realist, and don't wish to BS. 

Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.  I use the names Junket, Junket King, Lugi, Mark Teruya, Rolex, Relex, Rolex Watch, Mark, Eaglite, JohnO & More depending on what day it is and whom I am attempting to be!

alrelax

My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/index.php?board=250.0

Played well over 36,951 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

THE PURPOSE OF GAMING IS TO WIN!

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that & more.
 
Administrator & Forum Board Owner  of  BetSelection.cc
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


CT70

Quote from: Lugi on April 18, 2019, 03:02:59 PM
Unless you can back that up, it is just grandstanding, empty words on the internet. I (we) can all play shoes that return hit rates greater than 60, 70, 80%, I made reference to a shoe I played online, won 7 lost 1 (87.5%). Can I achieve that consistently, no chance in hell I can.  I wouldn't even want to, rather, would be more interested and more focused on handling those shoes that only produce a high 40% win rate, because I'm a realist, and don't wish to BS.
:no:

Jimske

Quote from: CT70 on April 18, 2019, 02:16:11 PM
I call it Hit Rate but I?m sure strike rate means the same. It?s 65%.
I play less than half of all the hands in a shoe.
Thanks for answering.  I get a 53% strike rate and bet most hands - until I quit the shoe.  I won't flat bet with that low rate.  And I wouldn't with a 65%.  I might consider it but one would have a hard time losing using progressions with such a hit rate.  A progression would give a lot more bang for the buck than flat - win a lot more % of shoes.