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[alrelax]

(This post is dedicated to AysmBac.  I sat down with lots of coffee and attempted to explain, 'Defining events that will and do frequently happen in baccarat and why I wager with them or against them.  I am naming my most frequent ones.)

A benefit can also be a liability or a benefit that, carries some significant but not so obvious, cost or risk.

Read it.  Read it and read it.  That is baccarat.  There is no wagering that cannot be a risk, period.  Once you think you have no risk, you will lose any edge and advantage you may really have. 

Deciphering the waves, they do exist.   

It is just that we do not know the order of the waves that the she will produce.  If you think you do and all your testing, graphs, charts and membership circles of other professional players, have told you what they are—your bankroll will disappear.  Be careful, be smart and realize that there is actually some hidden and not published knowledge to this game.  Not voodoo, but real characteristics that will present themselves as well as disappear.  That is why you need to be extremely clear-minded and able to 'reset and refresh' yourself on a constant and repetitive manner when playing baccarat. 

Numbers.  Numbers will tell you a lot in the game of baccarat.  Numbers and several years of play will generally not allow you to realize what I am about to say here.  You can believe it or not, totally up to you because it is your money.  Just, when you walk out of the casino and lost, just remember there might, just might—be a bit more to baccarat than you thought.  So, you can; 1) Disbelieve it; or 2) You can shrug your shoulders and call me "terminally stupid—pissant or a friggin unintelligent"; or 3) Believe it; or the only other thing left you can do is; 4) Be neutral and check it out. 

The shoe is infinite, it does not carry over from shoe to shoe to shoe and one continuous game as so many think and say it does.  A shoe of about 80 hands can only make so many events, combinations, waves, winning and losing hands, etc.  So in reality, one shoe of baccarat in the USA will make right around 80 hands, or 160 if you view each side as a numbered result. 

I like to give the following example of a baccarat shoe and what it can do.  Which is the same as going to the beach on various days and observing the waves as they come into the shoreline (the beach).  Smooth, rough, high, low, equaling out, the same for a while, abruptly being different and varying greatly, etc., etc., etc. and so on.  At 9 AM the waves will be different than they generally are at 1 PM and again at 2 AM later on, as well as the same time the following day.  At times they will certainly look the same as well, at other times completely opposite.  But, the beach and the people are still there, just adapting to the waves in different ways depending on the volatility of the waves and the person's ability to subject themselves to them. 

Reality with various manifesting phenomena mixed in.  That is baccarat. 

So many say, "What has already happened is past, it has no bearing on what will happen".  That is true to a certain extent, but what has happened needs to be considered within your vision because the shoe you are playing out is finite and only so many things can or will happen.  Misinterpreting and alienating yourself from what I am attempting to lay out, will not open your vision or allow yourself to be in the proper frame-of-mind.

Presentments of general characteristics of a section being dealt---in the process---currently happening in front of you, is what you need to attempt understanding of and what is also possible to happen.  And, don't let prediction become fallacy, as well—don't let fallacy become prediction for yourself.  Remember reality and stay in it. 

After you read through the following, make sure to grasp the paragraph below with the word "Differentiate" in bold letters!  Some of my identified and stringer presentments that have served me well. 

Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws.  As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue.  Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times.  Likewise a reduction to the players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases.  However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.

6/7's & 8's/9's.  Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not.  As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.

Naturals-alternating.  An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently.  Naturals have a huge tendency to 'WOW' the players and they convince themselves that the side just got 'strong' and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on.  However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the '-' or '+' is close together.

Naturals.  When one side is producing naturals over the other side's 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently.  Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite. 

Fortune 7's (3 card Banker winning 7's, 40:1). Zero to low ties.  Within the first 10 hands.  And hands 16-23.  Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand.  Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7's.  Some shoes have none.  If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th.  5 and 6 F-7's are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur.  Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc.  By the way, the reason there are more F-7's in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course.  Frequently there are many 10's that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side 'under 6' or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc. 

-10/+10/+20.  Frequently the total count will hover around '-' or '+' 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so.  And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to "catch-up".  It happens and happens repeatedly.  Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise.  Infrequent by far.  I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that.  Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to "catch-up" to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually 'catch-up' in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was previously.  Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the '-' or the '+' of a side to win or lose.   

Equaling Out.  The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable.  An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times.  If not, after the midway or 60% point.  Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other.  Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc.  That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing. 

½ Way to End of Shoe.  More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was 'strong', frequently repeating B's and P's and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing.  Sure, great if it does.  But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half. 

Alternating & 2's.  No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2's.  If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens. 

Being there when it is happening.  Consciousness, frame-of-mind and wide & clear vision.  I have wrote about all this in other threads.  Most of all, reality.  Stay in reality while being in 'La La land' and 'Dreamsville'.  Hard to do at times, but you must. 

You don't have to wager or count on these events to happen.  But they do happen and when it is not streaking 10 or 15 or 19 of one side, the shoe is presenting other things or 'events'.  And these are what I found over the many years I have played this game.

What you have to do, I do—is put yourself into the wholeness the shoe is presenting and divide it up into sections.  Interpret it as 'waves' with some type of volatility that will happen or like a tree with its branches.  But continuously go back with your vision each hand and do not forget the main stream is just the tree trunk. 

Experience is vital.  Without it—you are basically at the table's mercy, the mercy of the aura of the surrounding you are in and the mercy of the other players as well.  Don't say that those are not powerful, as the most certainly are!  Again--reality!

Example, when you see someone win thousands of dollars in a couple of hands—you will be drawn to that individual's wagering results, which was, he won!  You most likely will follow him and then he loses.  Welcome to the game of baccarat. 

Being able to differentiate what is happening as it is happening.  Ask yourself, what is different or making it different.  A lot of times there is just that lurking there without anyone noticing.  You have to be able to classify the make ups of the hands presenting themselves as, strong—weak or neuatral or balancing out.  Those 4 things will lead and control each section in one way or another.  And do not view 80 hands as 1, you have to divide the shoe up into 3 to 5 sections as the majority of the times that is better representing what is happening and forming, rather than 20 or 30 or 40 hands ago, etc.  You should only be concerned in a 'section', not looking at what happened back in the beginning, remember that.

More often than not (by far) a section of 15-20 hands is far greater representative of itself than outside of its section.  Presentment, Reality & Actual Events. 

Nothing is 100% indicative that anything will continue or happen.  But be aware and let your vision go either way, with or against, ready to stack it up and pounce on it or go wait a section out.  You better maintain complete visual and 'aura' consciousness, the correct frame-of-mind and keep saying the word, 'reality'. 

[Baelog]

Thanks for sharing this. I wish I had Fortune 7 at my local casinos (Harrah"s Cherokee and Harrah"s Valley River).

[AsymBacGuy]

Thanks Al, that's an excellent summary.

Yet numbers can help an acute bac player a lot.

Say we have a mechanical player betting toward P singles and/or P doubles just in clusters of 2+.

He's not wagering after a 3+ P appearance, just after a P1-P2 two pattern appearance in any order and class.
Hence he is losing whenever any P1-P2 will show up in clusters of just two.
Like as P1-P1-P3 or P1-P2-P3 or P2-P2-P3 and so on.
Good.

Probability dictates that P1-P2 patterns (in any order of two) will overcome the P3 losing counterparts.
Of course the vig will be a problem, transrforming this strategic plan into a losing one itlr. 

Good again.

Since P1-P2 patterns of two are less likely than superior patterns, we know that we'll expect to get at least one P1-P2 pattern of three within a couple of shoes to say the least.

I mean that it's nearly impossible to not getting a P1-P2 pattern of at least three within a couple of shoes. Try to check this and let me know.
Somewhere any P3 streak must be interpoled by a P1-P2 pattern of at least three.

Thus anytime we are waiting the more we can this fantastic P1-P2 clustered of at least 3 pattern/rest ratio diverted to the opposite more likely direction, we are getting the best of it at least from a probability of success point of view.

Morevoer, per any 8-deck shoe on average there is a 4.3 number of 3+ P streaks. Those which are cutting at some point our winning probabilities.
But to be losers, they must come out just after a P1-P2 sequence of just two had shown and this occurence will present more likely isolated than in clusters. 

Think as a robot capable to increasingly betting toward 3+ P1-P2 patterns after zero or one same favourable situation occurred or after a single unfavourable situation happened, then stopping the betting if losing.
You can't cross a negative multiple situation.

as.






   




   

[alrelax]

Thanks for finally reading it!  I will answer in detail as i am getting ready to leave Minneapolis and now it is icy and snowing on the interstate.  But i have stuff to add.  Tomorrow.

When it is there, it will come out.  When it is not, it won't.  But the most powerful thing in bac is playing with the shoe instead of trying to change it. 

[Garfield]

Hi all.. LoL

I thought this site is gone hahaha... Glad to see you all, especially @alrelax

[VLS]

Hi all.. LoL

I thought this site is gone hahaha... Glad to see you all, especially @alrelax

Welcome back Garfield! You've earned a bowl of lasagna!

[attachimg=1]

(We even have expansion plans so don't worry. We're here for the long, long run!)

[AsymBacGuy]

Thanks for finally reading it!  I will answer in detail as i am getting ready to leave Minneapolis and now it is icy and snowing on the interstate.  But i have stuff to add.  Tomorrow.

When it is there, it will come out.  When it is not, it won't.  But the most powerful thing in bac is playing with the shoe instead of trying to change it.

Hi Al!
Snow? I told you several times to move to South Nevada or, better yet, to South Arizona. Nonetheless you keep living on the ugly side of US. Good universities there, but very bad weather tough.
Of course I'm joking, still I'm trying to get you on the right side of US. :-)

as. 

[alrelax]

Asym, snow?  Oh, we get that here?

Last night from the security cam pics at my house, before and a few hours after while I was in Minneapolis.

[attach=1]

[attach=2]

On the way in to the mess at my business, I need a skid loader!  Going to take awh to get this cleaned up!

[attach=3]

[attach=4]

Pulling in my yard:

[attach=5]

Okay, one of my guys shot this---get the donuts and coffee ready!!!:

[attach=6]

And P.S.:  That is my semi trailer on the end of my warehouse building that I use every year for my 'Caring or Kids' program where I fill it with backpacks and supplies for poor and needy kids to help them, the one thing I attempted to publicize on here that Stephen Tabone lambasted and accused me of wrongdoing on this board as well as other message boards.  Yeah, I don't forget!

[AsymBacGuy]

Unbelievable!

as.

[alrelax]

Unbelievable!

as.

50 outside now and 60s and 70s by Friday! 

[alrelax]

Update list, not complete, others are within my writings, but I am updating some:

Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws. As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue.  Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times.  Likewise a reduction to the Players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases.  However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.

6/7's & 8's/9's. Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not.  As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.

Naturals-alternating. An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently.  Naturals have a huge tendency to 'WOW' the players and they convince themselves that the side just got 'strong' and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on.  However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the '-' or '+' is close together.

Naturals.  When one side is producing naturals over the other side's 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently.  Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite.

Fortune 7's (3 card Banker winning 7's, 40:1).  Zero to low ties.  Within the first 10 hands.  And hands 16-23.  Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand.  Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7's.  Some shoes have none.  If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th.  5 and 6 F-7's are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur.  Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc.  By the way, the reason there are more F-7's in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course.  Frequently there are many 10's that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side 'under 6' or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc.  F-7's and the next hand 'cut'.  The highest amount of the F-7 appearing hands will 'cut' to the Players side with the upcoming hand to be dealt.

Panda 8's (3 card Player winning 8's, 25:1). Panda 8's will appear a norm of 3 to 6 times.  Panda 8's appear frequently in the beginning of the shoe in multiple more than F-7's generally will by far.  Panda 8's will also appear in clusters (repeating themselves in a shorter hand-span) with greater frequency than F-7's generally do.  Panda 8's appear with less consistency within certain clusters of hands than F-7's but with a greater appearance of anywhere in the shoe from the beginning to the end.  Panda 8's also with great frequency tend to 'cut' to the Banker with the following hand to be dealt after the appearance of a Panda 8. 

-10/+10/+20. Frequently the total count will hover around '-' or '+' 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so.  And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to "catch-up".  It happens and happens repeatedly.  Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise.  Infrequent by far.  I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that.  Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to "catch-up" to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually 'catch-up' in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was doing or presenting, previously.  Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the '-' or the '+' of a side to win or lose.   

Equaling Out.  The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable.  An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times.  If not, after the midway or 60% point.  Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other.  Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc.  That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing—when it is there, it is there without reason, comparison or definitively being able to define the reason why.   

½ Way to End of Shoe.  More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was 'strong', frequently repeating B's and P's and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing.  Sure, great if it does.  But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half.

Alternating & 2's.  No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2's.  If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens.

Players Side Repeating Within Beginning/First Section.  Players repeating hands in any form of clusters have a frequent tendency to appear within the beginning of the shoe, in the first section.  Meaning, 3 + Players with a frequent 1, sometimes 2 Bankers and each time the winning hand is Players it repeats with 3 + occurrences.  This kind of section is frequently followed by a section of 1's and 2's in various configurations when the first section losses its Player dominance stance, frequently around the 15-19th hands.

Sections & Turning Points. The card or board needs to be visualized into 'sections and turning points'.  There are usually 4 of them easily identifiable within a shoe.  There might be 3 in the extremely weak or very strong shoes and a possibly of 5.  Following 'waves' and the 'sections' makes it easier to follow the flow of cards and the presentments many of the times.  Following the 'waves' and attempting to wager heavier within the middle of them, is my key to increasing my wins with heavier wagers rather than all too often wagering at the very end of any weak, strong or continuing neutral presentments happening.  The key to using it while it is happening, is to identify a new section and with a multitude of other quickly rationalized out thoughts, find yourself within the start or the middle of a presenting 'wave'. 

Sections Identified. The sections with their turning points will reflect the 'waves' of the shoe.  The sections are basically, one of three things.  1)  Weak; 2) Strong; and 3) Neutral.  Baccarat shoes will produce those three series of events in a random order.  However, the shoe will generally have many consistencies which will represent 'weak' or 'strong', patterns/trends/clusters, etc.  For sake of a 'non-arguing/non-challenging' definition, the 'weak-strong-neutral' clusters which I put into 'sections' appear in random presentations without being repetitive according to any one thing.  However, numerous factors when present, have proved them to myself with frequency that is noticeable and identifiable as I have described within the above paragraphs.  How long will the 'clusters' last?  Unknown.  From a few to numerous. 

Weak.  'Weak' is a representation of the most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  'Weak' can be the traditional 1's or 2's or say 1's followed by a 3 repeating side.  'Weak' can be a situation where say the Player had 3's and 4's to the Bankers 1, each time the Banker beat the Player.  Thus, "The Banker is weak".  Or, say the shoe produced 4 Banker runs of 6 to 9 and 3 Player runs of 5 to 7 with a 3 repeating Banker.  Then there was a turn to presenting 1's and 2's.  Thus, "The shoe got real weak".  Or, the Player's 3rd card consistently reduces them to zero or near zero total point value and the Bankers are winning with the first 2 cards or adding up to 7-8-9 total value with every 3rd card pulled.  Thus, "The Player is weak". 

Strong.  'Strong' is a representation of the third most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  'Strong' can be the traditional streaks and runs of either Banker or Player in consecutive order, one after the next.  'Strong' can be a situation where either side, Banker or Player, consecutively produces series or sections of winning hands in multiple.  'Strong' can very well be a section of alternating hands, a continuous 'chop-chop' of alternating Bankers and Players for many times.  'Strong' can very well be a section of 'doubles' or 'pairs' that are produced side-by-side in a continuous result for 6 or 8 or 10 times, etc.  'Strong' can be a series of 1's-2's-3-3-2's-1's, or many other things along those lines.  'Strong' can very well be where a deficient side lost +10 or even +15 or more times and then began to catch-up and equal out the deficiency it was holding.  'Strong' can be where either side is adding point value with every 3rd card drawn for many successive hands in repeating shoe presentment. 

Neutral.  'Neutral' is a representation of the second most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  Neutral happen repeatedly throughout the shoe in many ways.  The most obvious is the +10, -10 or +20 situations with the 'total running' count.  The shoe will frequently, very frequently 'equal' out, meaning the deficient side will catch up and then balance out.  See, 'Equaling Out' in the above paragraphs.

Consistent.  'Consistent' is when the shoe is producing presentments that are holding a repetitive pattern, that replicates a several to numerous previous hands, whether those hands lost or won.  Consistency is one of the easiest things to spot in an upcoming wave about to happen or one that is happening.

Inconsistent.  'Inconsistent' is an event that occurs, not quite rare, but with a lot less frequency than weak/weakness.

Dominant.  'Dominant is the same as strong and consistent events that occur.

Singular. 'Singular' is an individual event or 1's, that occur.

Multiple.  'Multiple' is repeating, dominant and strong events that occur.

Frequent.  'Frequent' is the same as strong events that occur.

Rare. 'Rare; is the same as inconsistent events that occur. 

What so many players, regardless of their experience fail to recognize are the identifiable events I touched on here.  Oh yeas, they do after they are presented and history of course.  That method gives them their fuel and energy to continually label the game as guessing and luck because when they attempt to use that presented information as the sole basis for wagering, the wagers are not within the 'wave'. 

As well, so many people believe baccarat goes only two ways with its presentation, which are attempted to be identified.  'Strong', which they label only as streaks and runs and we all know how that goes.  And secondly, with the 'weak' meaning they interpret 'weak' as being related to chop-chop or possibly the presentments proving 'non streaks', etc. 

Baccarat can be frequently identifiable with the correct vision of a player that has the correct frame-of-mind coupled with other emotional, judgement and physiological issues being present or absent. 

[Johno-Egalite]

It is both alarming and disconcerting that the above post exists within a Baccarat forum, no logic, makes little or no sense whatsoEVER, it's like GR8 on Steroids

[alrelax]

It is both alarming and disconcerting that the above post exists within a Baccarat forum, no logic, makes little or no sense whatsoEVER, it's like GR8 on Steroids

First of all, you are free to state your opinion and issue your one sentence/few words disapproval without a counterbalance of positive and proven methods that have worked for you over years of your play. 

As well, I would appreciate the toning down of your wording to a 'less hostile' explanation of your thoughts.

Lastly, I have defined what I encounter in the game and if it does not meet your expectations, play-results experience and 'defined outcomes' of the game. 

NOTE:  Before anyone of the aggressive members that specialize in chastising postings here says something, I defined what I have seen and witnessed repeatedly over the absolute long-run at the baccarat tables.  If you interpret what I post as my 'system of guaranteed winning betselection' or anything of the like, you missed the entire point, content and usability of defining what happens at a baccarat table, IMO and not the opinion of the board or the Admin here, etc. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Well, if I'm going to play baccarat with Alrelax, gr8player, soxfan, Lungyeh and some others I would put on the table whatever I have on my name (sorry, a lot).

I think the probability to lose all is so remote that I could take the risk. With a loud fk u to the mathematicians.

as.

[alrelax]

Well, if I'm going to play baccarat with Alrelax, gr8player, soxfan, Lungyeh and some others I would put on the table whatever I have on my name (sorry, a lot).

I think the probability to lose all is so remote that I could take the risk. With a loud fk u to the mathematicians.

as.

No cussing in the casino!  It would be sooooooo unprofessional.  As well, no high-fives,  no screaming, no yelling, no back slapping, no showing emotional happiness and having a great time.  Strictly, heads down in the palm of our hands and acting all sad.  That way the pit people will not identify us and ban us for being AP's at the baccarat table,  !!!!

Also, no sprinkling magical dust, no banging the table, and no eating PHO at the table!!!