His MDB is no good. Two members have used this in their casinos and it does not work. We all know systems work some of the time. I also spoke to a guy who has bought almost every single one of ellis's systems and REFUSES to give him one more penney.
Based upon that, I would have to guess that this 2HI is going to be crappola, the same ole' crappola he has been spewing for 20+ years now. I won't reveal the members name but lets just say he knows ellis personally for a longggg time and has watched and played with him MANY times and he has admitted that he is a "systems seller". Now, I know this isn't a revelation to most, but I hope that to the naive, unsuspecting person who googles baccarat and finds his site, they don't max out their credit card on buying his ridiculous stuff.
Heck, I been offered 2HI a few times for a split of a measly 200 bucks. For what? It's already a loser!
For anybody capping a progression at 2u, it is already a loser. I've seen a regular where I play do this and got thinking about why he went from a big stack to no stack fairly quickly. For every LL 2 losses in a row, the required win ratio just tripled. A few LL's and your goosed, meanwhile Ellis is able to pay for a few more nurses for a little longer.. Ellis the scourge of the gambling community.
Quote from: Jimske on March 19, 2015, 09:35:57 PM
From RW If one can win more hands than lose then any prog you use will come out winner itlr by the ABS.
Not really. All depends how the wins and losses fall, if your capping a negative progression at 2u and get too many LL's and many WW's hen you could lose against such a shoe.
Sorry didn't read all the blue stuff, read the first paragraph, kinda obvious where it's come from and really is just g
obbledygook for OLD and 'AS'. Whatever the author is getting at, I don't need it, I have my winning formula <wink>..
Ellis 2hi is in fact a bust. It does not work. But now he's asking his members to help him fix it , what a joke....
Rolex and all, so a 1-2 progression capped at 2 does take 3 winning bets to break even. But the goal of the 1-2 is to keep your bets low. So if you are doing a 3 step progression you are then at 1-2-2 or 1-2-3 which is even harder.....is there a better progression than the 1-2?
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 20, 2015, 01:47:35 AM
Rolex and all, so a 1-2 progression capped at 2 does take 3 winning bets to break even. But the goal of the 1-2 is to keep your bets low. So if you are doing a 3 step progression you are then at 1-2-2 or 1-2-3 which is even harder.....is there a better progression than the 1-2?
For every LL you drop 3 units, for every W, LW, WW you don't make 3u which is why it is a losing proposition, as double losses aren't exactly rare. You would be better off flat betting than capping your bets at 2u, alternatively use a much deeper progression beyond 3u.
I don't have these kind of issues, having been around the block many times. I realised the issues with progression present the players with, 'not enough bankroll', 'not willing to place the big bets', 'table limits', 'simply not worth the risk', so constructed my own concept to address the issues that you find with the progressions you can find on the internet.
Of course you still need to snare wins in a decent quantity.
QuoteIs there a mechanical bet selection that wins more hands than another?
Not really, but if you were to ask, if there a mechanical bet selection that loses less 'LIAR's' than other options including competing mechanical options, then I would definitely say yes.
Quote from: Jimske on March 19, 2015, 09:35:57 PM
First of all WBK - ALL systems work. Unless of course no system works, in which case then nobody wins. What? But if somebody wins than there MUSt be a system that works. Better keep on looking for that system.
I found one last year. And I'm doing very well with it! ;) :thumbsup: :nod: :applause:
Natural 9 ;)
Ellis has put a lot of time into his Thing. Searching for a bias I assume. In every shoe you can have a bias of one way or another, IMO.
I once read that there are 250 known Holy Grails found across Europe. I thought that to be a very interesting statistic.
I would of never thought of looking there !
Quote from: Natural 9 on March 21, 2015, 04:55:26 PM
I found one last year. And I'm doing very well with it! ;) :thumbsup: :nod: :applause:
Natural 9 ;)
Doing so well Alvin that you need another system or approach heh? Lmao, this is classic. Alvin, adulay or whatever your name is, take a hike will ya?
Go back to the burger joint and start flipping for an honest living. Everyone knows you don't make it in baccarat. You certainly have provided 0 proof.
Has anyone played the U2hi system and if so, what are the rules and how do you play?
The problem with progressions is the difficulty of overcoming what I call the shoe distribution bias.
On average, the distribution in the long run will be something similar to the following. If you can beat the distribution in the long run you will have a good system.
Betting large on a few hands over several shoes when you feel the distribution is in your favor may work for some, but for the small bettor with multiple bets, the distribution will be difficult to overcome.
1's 50 %
2's 25 %
3'S 12.5 %
4's 6.25 %
5's 3.125 %
6's 1.562 %
7's .78 %
8's .39 %
from what I know high 3's are the culprit I see a lot of 3's in a shoe yesterday ellis was rambeling on about forget net betting and betting 112 after 3 or 112 after 3 chop he posted it in the public forum than erased the post claiming he was rushed into releasing it and that mdb was his best work well how about the people that paid a 1000 for 2hi
Greetings,
Progressions such as 112 will be victim of the shoe distribution bias. This is why some say Ellis's this or that system doesn't work.
Progressions such as 12, 112, 123, 1234, 1248, 124124, 121248 on any combination of PB falls victim to the same distribution bias.
As a follow up note, I will add that the normal shoe distribution bias results mentioned above, is as if, a person bet every hand on every shoe.
Nothing new here.
Get in , Get out is good advice.
Tracking a bias is simple and good advice to find a favorable bet. IMO This is what Ellis promotes with his NOR, etc. tracking methods.
That's what it's all about. Find a chopping shoe, if you like to bet the chop, with a 1, 2 progression etc.
I've played shoes that never went over 3 iar.
I've played shoes with multiple runs.
And, of course, there are the mixed shoes.
I guess the trick is to match the method with the shoe, stop if you are losing, wait for another shoe with your favorite bias.
Quote from: ezmark on March 23, 2015, 05:54:47 PM
As a follow up note, I will add that the normal shoe distribution bias results mentioned above, is as if, a person bet every hand on every shoe.
Nothing new here.
Get in , Get out is good advice.
Tracking a bias is simple and good advice to find a favorable bet. IMO This is what Ellis promotes with his NOR, etc. tracking methods.
That's what it's all about. Find a chopping shoe, if you like to bet the chop, with a 1, 2 progression etc.
I've played shoes that never went over 3 iar.
I've played shoes with multiple runs.
And, of course, there are the mixed shoes.
I guess the trick is to match the method with the shoe, stop if you are losing, wait for another shoe with your favorite bias.
How does one "find the right shoe"? Seriously? When you play live and you see chops, you bet and it starts to double up, you bet for it to "streak", and it chops on you, now what? Back to the chop, will it double up, who knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love it when people say this, find the right shoe. It's incredible, sure, after 50 hands you can look back and say I would of did this there and this over there, etc. Hindsight won't work when you're playing live.....
I have also played many shoes where it never goes past 3IAR. I have seen it all just like most have.
You say the trick to find the right shoe that fits your method? Well GOODLUCK with that!! Aren't we all doing that when we sit down?
NOR= neutral, opposite, repeat. he uses a count to tell you what the shoe is doing. WTF do you need to do that for, look at your scorecard. Do what the shoe is doing!!!! If it's chopping, bet it will chop, if it's doubling or streaking (4 or more in a row), then bet that!!!! You can't force your method on the table, that is simply ludicrous!
Wow, it's the same old song and dance.............Seriously, it makes me wonder if anyone really plays the game. I know Jim plays (never played with), tomla does, played with him, but besides that, I honestly don't know....
I play 2-3x/week, live, with REAL money. Come watch me! You're all welcome and we can discuss what you will do LIVE, in REAL LIFE!!!! When I buy in for 2k or 5k, ITS REAL!!!! When I place a bet and it loses, THEY TAKE MY MONEY!!!! lol, wow! Off to bed, I do get a few chuckles reading this stuff. At least I can post this and smirk as I walk down the hall to take a pee before I rest my head for the night! Thanks for that! I bet I will wake up to a few good comments!!!
[smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley]
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 24, 2015, 03:09:32 AM
How does one "find the right shoe"? Seriously? When you play live and you see chops, you bet and it starts to double up, you bet for it to "streak", and it chops on you, now what? Back to the chop, will it double up, who knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love it when people say this, find the right shoe. It's incredible, sure, after 50 hands you can look back and say I would of did this there and this over there, etc. Hindsight won't work when you're playing live.....
I have also played many shoes where it never goes past 3IAR. I have seen it all just like most have.
You say the trick to find the right shoe that fits your method? Well GOODLUCK with that!! Aren't we all doing that when we sit down?
NOR= neutral, opposite, repeat. he uses a count to tell you what the shoe is doing. WTF do you need to do that for, look at your scorecard. Do what the shoe is doing!!!! If it's chopping, bet it will chop, if it's doubling or streaking (4 or more in a row), then bet that!!!! You can't force your method on the table, that is simply ludicrous!
Wow, it's the same old song and dance.............
Hello, WorldBaccaratKing, I trust all is well with you.
There is no doubt of it, trending certainly does present some "issues" to be faced with, to be encountered, and, most importantly, to be answered.
A trender's life at the Baccarat tables is not an easy one, not by any measure. Frustration...yes, the same frustration that permeates your post I've just quoted...is the order of the day, and must be dealt with and, ultimately, avoided and/or eliminated.
But let's take a moment to look at the source of those frustrations, shall we?
Firstly, let's tackle this "count" business. IMHO, utterly useless. Why? Because, usually, by the time your "count" triggers you in, it's simply too late into the trending process and/or recognition thereof.
And, secondly, the lesson in futility that comes with attempting to bet every hand, all in the hopes that your plays will somehow "conform" to each and every trending happenstance that the shoe can put forth. Again, IMHO, it'll prove to be nothing more than a lesson in futility.
So what's the answer? What is the serious trender to do in the face of the multitude of these twists and turns and the inevitable frustrations that accompany each of them?
One word: Anticipation.
Any serious trender worth their salt can aptly "anticipate" the majority of the trending twist and turns AS THEY UNFOLD, not, as so often happens, AFTER THEY'VE EXHAUSTED.
You see, my friends, as it relates to your ever-so-important "strike rates", THE SOONER, THE BETTER is the name of the game when it comes to recognizing and betting for trends.
The serious, experienced trender has in their arsenal the ability to ANTICIPATE where the next trending opportunity lies in this shoe (or portion thereof), and adjusts their play accordingly.
Sometimes, that adjustment leads to "no-betting"...sitting out the "mumble-jumble" portions of the shoe to await the more defined trending opportunities. And never, ever forget, my friends, that THE ABILITY TO AWAIT THE BETTER BETTING OPPORTUNITIES ARE, IN THE END, ALL THAT SEPARATES THE AMATUERS FROM THE PROFESSIONALS. Patience and Discipline are the order of the day, every day.
So recognition should not be taken as an excuse to bet every hand.
No, the serious trender utilizes recognition as the ability to maximize their profits on those trends for which they are ever-aware of and ever-honed into on.
Simply stated, WorldBaccaratKing, I, myself, have a real trending and MM answer to both a relatively choppy portion of the shoe and/or a one-sided "dominant" portion of the shoe.
Now, that said, are there times when it's MUCH TOO DIFFICULT to ascertain either? Sure there are. That, my friends, is where my "no-betting" option proves my best choice.
But, just let either one of those preferred trending happenstances come as "anticipated" by me, and I'm all over it like white on rice, as I seek to take full advantage. Well worth waiting for, IMHO.
So, WorldBaccaratKing, I "hear you", my friend. I hear the frustration. You need an answer for it, my friend. A viable and, ultimately, playable/profitable answer.
As always, I wish it for all of you.
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 24, 2015, 03:09:32 AM
I love it when people say this, find the right shoe. It's incredible, sure, after 50 hands you can look back and say I would of did this there and this over there, etc. Hindsight won't work when you're playing live.....
Now who does this remind of?
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 24, 2015, 03:09:32 AM
NOR= neutral, opposite, repeat. he uses a count to tell you what the shoe is doing. WTF do you need to do that for, look at your scorecard.
that is exactly what I thought, another Ellis master-class, and to think you have to pay for this amazing insight, who remembers the "Twister" scam and casinos pressing special buttons on the shufflers to produce a 3-1-1-3 pattern to take down all of Ellis disciples??
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 24, 2015, 03:09:32 AM
Seriously, it makes me wonder if anyone really plays the game. I know Jim plays (never played with), tomla does, played with him, but besides that, I honestly don't know....
Cough, cough..
Hi gr8player!
Can you give us an example of the "anticipation" value you were talking about?
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2015, 06:46:03 PM
Hi gr8player!
Can you give us an example of the "anticipation" value you were talking about?
as.
Sure, AsymBacGuy, no problem:
In my "domination" trend play, I measure the gaps between respective appearances. For instance:
P BB P B
While most trenders aren't seeing the Banker's side as "dominating" as yet, I prefer to begin my play AGAINST that weaker P-side that has had only single gaps within the repeating B-side.
It is these single gaps(and sometimes even double gaps) that'll trigger me immediately onto any impending "domination".
And here's the beauty of my early identification:
I'm on those B's at the "top line", as opposed to getting on them after their 2nd or even 3rd (or even 4th) appearance. I am maximizing even on those relatively minor "doms" like B PP B PP and the like, where I'd be winning 4 out of 5 bets on this example, losing only on that 2nd single B, while winning all P's.
Looking for minor "gap measures" is a great way to "foresee" trends BEFORE they become mostly after-thoughts.
And I have at my disposal another 3 such "pre-trend" triggers, all based upon my "anticipation" of the impending direction of this particular portion of the shoe.
The frustration that most trenders feel is the absolute futility of attempting to out-guess every single decision and/or trend....can't be done. Why? Because that player leaves themselves no "breathing room", no time to step back and re-measure/re-evaluate each portion of the shoe.
They'd rather gamble their money. I much prefer pre-calculated risks, where my risk of ruin is as miniscule as I can pare it down to.
Ah, well....to each his own.
Stay well, my friend.
Thanks for you your answer, gr8.
So you are taking advantage on "micro" dominating trends.
Naturally you'll run into "bad" portions where such tendency won't be sufficient to get a line to follow. How do you manage them?
How many hands do you bet on average per any single shoe?
Thanks and cheers
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2015, 09:27:34 PM
Naturally you'll run into "bad" portions where such tendency won't be sufficient to get a line to follow. How do you manage them?
I lose. But those losses are, at once: quick, short, and controlled. And in such times where those "bad" portions are a bit more prevalent than normal, I'll utilize my "no-bet" option. My preferred trends are "popular" enough to make them appear sooner rather than later; if not this shoe, than next.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2015, 09:27:34 PM
How many hands do you bet on average per any single shoe?
That depends on how this shoe may be performing for me. As a general answer, however, I'll usually play (read: bet) roughly half the hands, sometimes less, rarely more, all dependent upon how the shoe is unfolding and faring for me and my preferred trend plays.
Thanks gr8.
You know you are one of my preferite posters ever.
Actually I think some players have a sort of feeling about the nature of the shoe and I really respect them, still I'm getting confused when they are able to stop the betting and to restart the betting.
I guess they will be able to invert negative patterns by some MM. Do you think the same?
as.
What's with all this anticipate the trend nonsense, you see something, it looks like a trend, great it continued, oops it didn't. Hit an miss, hit and miss.. When there are smarter options out there which achieve the same thing, but mucho better, if trending is you bag.
The SO method (punting) from years ago achieved this, but was complicated. Eirescotts Birthday Paradox using pairs captures every possible trend, first hand, win every bet until it ends. Scotty did realize this, bit I did, just a matter of using BP and looking back, bingo you have the ultimate trend catcher, or very simply what about DBL doesn't that capturer every trend, is a sort of way, all you have to do it anticipate when the twos are coming or going to repeat and then you follow them.
You make trending appear like some think as trending as a dark skilled art, when in reality there exists options that will do it for you, both automatically and mechanically. no second guessing involved, because the bet selection does it all for ya.
Glad to have been of help and been able to clarify things, don't mention it, you're welcome [smiley]toto/d200712201620449378.gif[/smiley]
I've been reading this and other forums for a couple of months now and like a lot of the info and thoughts from those who contribute. Thanks
The comment above has me really confused. Not sure if it refers to baccarat ideas that I've never heard of or if the poster made some grammar errors.
What's in the bag? or Who's the bag? and What's a bit?
Quote from: Jimske on March 25, 2015, 02:03:03 AM
I got you this time. I would challenge "preferite" and win. You lose a turn.
:)
Although this thread is about Ellis playing 2HI.
I do like Grt8's slow progression, although I've never tried it, when he hits a trend his losses can be recovered.
Grt8, do you use any other progression ?
Hi,
I tried making a thread but I guess they didn't allow it.
New to this site. I am looking for fellow members of btc that want to join me in taking ellis and keith smith to court for fraud. I can't believe these scam artists have been running this scheme for so long. My goal is to get members back their money but also prevent future people from being scammed. If you are a btc member that has been scammed please notify me. If we get enough people we can do a class action lawsuit. My wife is a lawyer and I am willing to pay all legal fees.
Quote from: jsb02009 on March 25, 2015, 02:18:03 PM
Hi,
I tried making a thread but I guess they didn't allow it.
New to this site. I am looking for fellow members of btc that want to join me in taking ellis and keith smith to court for fraud. I can't believe these scam artists have been running this scheme for so long. My goal is to get members back their money but also prevent future people from being scammed. If you are a btc member that has been scammed please notify me. If we get enough people we can do a class action lawsuit. My wife is a lawyer and I am willing to pay all legal fees.
Best of luck mat8, really really hope you succeed, I'm not 100% sure Mark Teryua got done, but surely it would spell curtains for one of our moderators, who is/was an admin at both sites and who did his best to ensure both ships sailed smoothly. Of course HE HAD NO IDEA WHAT WAS REALLY GOING ON, OR THAT PEOPLE WERE BEING FLEECED BY SNAKE OIL SELLERS.
rolex my thoughts exactly
And I thought Adulay was a good guy!, WOW, was I wrong! Not that I didn't have an inkling since he always answered questions with a twisted tongue. He's another one who claims he does so good at the casino yet provided 0 proof. Man, I love those guys!