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[gr8player]

OK.  Those that follow my posts are aware of my recent winning streak; I hadn't lost a session in quite some time.  And those same people would also know, through my posts, that I was concerned about the sustainability of that streak; so much so that I even lowered my betting units in order to lessen any damage from the impending correction.  My bet selection process is a good one, but it ain't that good, and so the downward correction was imminent.  Well, witness this past trip:

On Thursday afternoon's session, I could not win a hand.  Bad beat after bad beat, I simply could not win a hand, losing the first 8 out of 9 bets I made (at one point, 7 losses in a row!).  Now, even with the "expected/imminent" downward correction, let me tell you, it ain't fun and it is frustrating.  Prepared is one thing, but losing is another, and always hurts.  I tried battling through it, but every time it looked as if my plays might be picking up, back down they went.  As did my session bankroll...as I finished with a 20-unit loss.  (Sidenote:  I buy in for 20 units, and that is, however rare, my absolute max loss limit.)

That, my friends, is alot for me; as you know, I always err on the side of caution.  I could have, and SHOULD HAVE, quit the session when I had battled back to a minus 5, but no, I am so used to the battle and so used to skirting (read: getting back to "even") these bad sessions that I played on, but it was simply not meant to be.  So, a minus 20 it is, and that was that.

Well, now, let's get on to my "loss eradication" strategy:

You guys know that I play a "variance" game.  My variances are proven stats, and I trust in them fully.  So, with that in mind, how do I handle that 20-unit blowout from earlier that day?  Buy ramping up my units size THREE-FOLD.  That's right, 3 times the size of my units at the prior session.  I felt there simply ain't no way I'm going to go any further than the 11-below (I lost 11 more bets that I had won on that losing session), and so now the time is ripe for recoup.  But, I still didn't want to have to exceed my normal win goal strategy; so the only answer was to ramp it up.  And ramp it up I did:

(Sidenote:  In fact, I was so confident in my upward-variance correction at this next session, that I bought in for only 10 units, as these were much-larger units than I'd normally play with.)

OK.  So what do you think happened on Thursday night?  Well, I bet you didn't guess this:  I didn't play.  Oh, don't get me wrong, I went to the tables.  In fact, at one point, I had my money and my player's card in hand, ready to buy in.  But, I never pulled the trigger.  I simply didn't like what the shoes looked like, and I simply wasn't "feeling it".  And, maybe, just maybe, Thursday wasn't my day.  So, after 2 full hours of simply watching, I called it a day, and left.  I would play, however, with no hesitation, on Friday (yesterday):

Well, things started rather well.  I won my first two bets, and the first 4 out of five.  But then lost a few, and actually, at one point in the session, I was down 2 units.  But, I proceeded to win the last 7 bets I made, and the first 2 of those bets were in "2-ville" of my Gr8Player's Progression.  All said and done, I won 6 units and colored up.

Total loss for the trip:  $100.  A stinkin' hundred bucks.  Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me.  So, bottom line:  I effectively "eradicated" that 20-unit loss from the day before.  Done and done.

And that is the name of my variance-based game:  Loss Eradication.

You see, my friends, when you play a mode of game that can effectively eliminate those rare but still nasty losses, ALL YOU ARE LEFT WITH IS PURE PROFIT ON YOUR EASIER, WINNING SESSIONS.  (Sidenote:  Well, wait, not ALL of those profitable sessions are pure profit, as this last one was for recoup purposes only, hence the much-higher unit size.  But, still, certainly MOST of my winning sessions are, in fact, for pure profit, because, usually, I can battle back from the more difficult ones, and quit at either even or a very minor loss.)

Look, losses happen. Nothing much we can do about it, so best learn to accept it.  But, that said, if one wishes to get the better of this game, over the long run, one NEEDS an EFFECTIVE LOSS-ERADICATION strategy.  And, in my humble opinion, that can only come with a just-as-effective VARIANCE PLAY strategy.  Knowing your limits...both on the up- AND the down-side...is both vital and imperative.  For only then can you manipulate your bet sizing to your ADVANTAGE.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you.

[gr8player]

Before anyone else might bring it up to counter my "Loss Eradication" strategy, let's bring to light the "Gambler's Fallacy" theory:

Gambler's Fallacy says, in a nutshell, that pretty much nothing is ever "due".  That it is a grave mistake to believe that the past could ever be helpful in predicting the future, and that those that believe so are doomed to eventual failure.  In a nutshell, that is the essence of the "Gambler's Fallacy" theory; that "chasing losses" from the past is fruitless in the prediction of future results.

OK.  I get that.  It certainly does make alot of sense.  For the majority of players, and the majority of modes and/or styles of play, I can certainly understand the "Gambler's Fallacy" application.

BUUUTTT (oh, c'mon, you knew there'd be a "but"), that all said, I am of the firm opinion that my play is NOT applicable to any "Gambler's Fallacy".  You see, my friends, I do not "blindly bet into" any past results, neither failures (losses) nor successes(wins).  Rather, I play into my statistics.  My betting, and my "adjustments" thereof, both bet selection- and bet sizing-wise, is all calculated within certain parameters of my statistics and corresponding variances.  Let me repeat that most important distinction:  My betting, and my "adjustments" thereof, both bet selection-and bet sizing-wise, is all calculated within certain parameters of my statistics and corresponding variances. 

And that, my friends, should never and can never be neither construed nor confused with any "Gambler's Fallacy" argument.

Thusly, my style of play, my patient and disciplined and consistent and statistically-sound style of play will stand the test of time.  And that's the only test I care about; the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul.

I choose to both approach and play this game much like the casino does; over the long term, with the statistics and variances that are PROVEN to work and provide an advantage.  And when one has the advantage, then time becomes their ally. 

[VLS]

Thusly, my style of play, my patient and disciplined and consistent and statistically-sound style of play will stand the test of time.  And that's the only test I care about; the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul.

Golden words & thanks for taking the time to share / post your experiences We all learn from each other; both from the positive as well as the negative happenings and of course how others have dealt with it.

It's just like you said: the only test to care about is precisely what you mention. At least for the mature players who are way past the other not-so-important things.

[soxfan]

The gr88888888888one puts the puck in the net again, hey hey.

[gr8player]

Thanks to both Victor and the Soxster for your kind acknowledgements.  Always appreciated.  We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success.  Stay well, all.

[Rolex-Watch]

We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success.

How could that possible be?  I mean seriously "long term success", I can give you 250,000 reasons why lunacy prevails.  Just like normal everyday people in life, once you talk about bet selection and it's whoa WTF.

the long-term test of time....for beating this game over the long haul. < simply not possible in this case

I choose to both approach and play this game much like the casino does; over the long term, with the statistics and variances that are PROVEN to work and provide an advantage.  And when one has the advantage, then time becomes their ally.

What is it coming to?  You can post anything without really posting anything!

Long term?  Already covered that one, surely an embarrassment that you mention 'long term'.  Oblivious to the long term damage and conveniently masked by the small wins today, very very typical of a habitual gambler.

Proven statistics and variances?  How so, how are they proven?  Without any proof at all, they are hardly proven, rather more empty word posted on a gambling forum, just like GG for over 10 years.  Who proved it, who verified they were proven?  We only see what we want to see when comes to gambling, lo and behold anybody who tries to tell us otherwise, that's when the psychosis is easily diagnosed, I've met my fair share of friendly intelligent people (successful outside of the casino, never in it), then it comes to bet selection and it is off the radar scale.  However, they need to believe, desperate to believe, so desperate they frequent gambling forums seeking approval, affirmation of their blindness.  Nothing is proven until you actually prove it, which you won't (can't) and it doesn't need a physiatrist to be able to identify the bigger picture and see what it really is.

What's sad, is that there exists and audience for this BS, which says less about them than the OP.

[Rolex-Watch]

Thanks to both Victor and the Soxster for your kind acknowledgements.  Always appreciated.  We are, after all, a sort of "band of brothers" in this forum, sharing the same common goal of long-term success.  Stay well, all.

Victor doesn't even play any more if I'm not mistaken (feel free to correct me, but I get the impression he doesn't), sensibly focusing on his scripting tasks.  If gambling was successful back then, I guess he would still be playing, not exactly rocket science. 

Sorry Vic not particularly having a go at you, but you of all people know the score.  I'm sure it was never your intent to create a gambling forum for the sake of waffle, rather you want members to post topics that others can test, run sims and the rest. Friendly or otherwise, every wise individual should be aware of the damage of this addiction which manifests itself in so many ways, masked only by disillusionment.   

Vic you are a smart man, you use to post roulette options that I never knew existed, yet you gave it up, what does that tell us?  Here is another example, nobody has probably studied Roulette more than Turbo Genius, I mention TG cos' there is a link to another site where he was going to PROVE, you can use Maths to beat a maths game.  Nice introduction, all will be revealed in the follow-up, well guess what, there was never any follow-up   

Vic you are assisting the perpetration of a myth, whilst knowing the physiological issues and needs that can arise from long term gambling.  Now if somebody posted, "hey what do you think of this, bet, bet, skip, skip, etc, etc" or "I've won xx amount over the the last xx sessions, by doing xyz", then sure it may be beneficial to the community as you like to call us. the alternative is merely providing an avenue for those in denial, also those so deeply buried, consumed by it, they better not look back.   

Sincerely all the best, and hopefully the typing lock-up will be resolve soon (shame you removed the avatars, they were fun :-)

[ADulay]

Rolex,

  C'mon.  Give it a break for a few days.

  You can't possibly be that negative all the time.

  AD

[Rolex-Watch]

Rolex,

  C'mon.  Give it a break for a few days.

  You can't possibly be that negative all the time.

  AD

Andy aka seahog aren't there any scammers that are in need of a moderator (or even a gate-keeper) on the internet, or are we now all wiser to it?

[gr8player]

Now if somebody posted, "hey what do you think of this, bet, bet, skip, skip, etc, etc" or "I've won xx amount over the the last xx sessions, by doing xyz"

I certainly have posted about "bet, bet, skip, skip"; I authored a thread regarding virtual losses, which is the very essence of "skip, skip, bet, bet".

And, again, I certainly have posted about "I've won xx amount over the last xx sessions, by doing xyz"; heck, part of that is right here in this very thread, where I explained my "Loss Eradication" strategy, and how I went about it.

Look, Johno/Rolex, you've simply got to try to accept the fact that you still have a lot to learn about this game, especially as it pertains to getting the better of it over the long term.  Frankly, your absolute naivete regarding the approach to this game, exactly what is does (and does not) take to get the better of it, is absolutely astonishing.  You, my friend, have learned absolutely nothing over the years....absolutely nothing.  There are other followers of my posts and enthusiasts of my method of play that are benefiting so much more than you are; all because you refuse to learn, and you refuse to acknowledge that I, gr8player, the man you just love to hate, hold the keys to true, long term success at this game and yes, I DO prove it with each one of my posts.

What, exactly, do you want from me?  My actual bet selection process?  Why should that matter to you; you're well-aware that they all resolve to 50/50.  My money-management?  My Gr8Player's Progression is available freely over the 'net.  My posts are clear as to how to build a mode a play that will beat this game over the long term, and there are countless players benefiting from such insight.  Except you:

No, you'd rather get nothing for yourself but jealously and envy....it's so obvious that it hurts.  Pity, really.  Rather than learn to seriously improve your game, like so many other members over the years have from me, you'd rather mope and pout, pout and mope.  Well, my friend, everyone is sick of it.  So either get on board or hit the skids, the choice is all yours.

[Rolex-Watch]

You posted nothing of relevance on the virtual loss thread other than to spout your stats are proven, how so?

Your bravado in posting you win less than 10 units per session, what does that mater to anybody else when there are no details, nothing that helps anybody else replicate your "long term" success [oxymoron a things considered].  Veteran players are all aware of the buzz that winning provides and the need to take to the internet to share the buzz, some eventually see through the need and move on [grow].  Have you ever questioned why and where this need comes from, the need for admiration without actually revealing anything and let's not go down the gr8 progression route, you have since stated you don't even use it.  Does it make you feel famous that it shows up in google searches?  It not even original, is this what floats your boat and fulfils the empty vacuum that exists inside of your psyche, that your 'too far gone' to appreciate it even exists!!!

What, exactly, do you want from me?  My actual bet selection process?

Quit the BS regarding 'stats being proven', either shut up and put up, prove aren't just another deluded punter I've had the displeasure in engaging the real world.  I suggest the majority of people whom read these boards don't play.  Rather consisting of those that no longer play due to the damage gambling has done, but want to keep a toe in the water looking for something that may help them recoup, keep themselves involved in a safe way with gambling and the newbies looking to learn, thinking they can achieve something playing games of chance that nobody on the planet has ever achieved other than the "great player from NY", please don't make me laugh.   You offer no assistance to the latter whatsoever, because it is all hush hush, a big secret, a myth.   

Given the fact there really are no pointers, clues or otherwise only meaningless unverified claims, one has to question what is the motive here?  Obviously your own need stands out plain and simple, because there is little else.  Then the fools cling on to the myth they might be able to replicate your self-claimed success, without knowing a damn thing about it, or even if it is true, or perhaps they just have to lose 250k before they can get started.  On that final point, I have no envy and am not jealous in any way (more unsubstantiated deluded thinking on your behalf) , that I assure you, if you were face-value you wouldn't have turned down the $10k offer that was posted on the WoV forum by a fellow member. 

I realize why your bravado posts are shall we say limited, it's because you don't want to embarrass yourself, what you do is a crock of sh1t nonsense, you know it, I know it, how you handle it at the tables, is up to the individual.

You haven't posted anything that anybody could take and proceed further in over 10 years (i.e test or trial), I don't expect that to change any time soon, so I suggest you take a long hard look at your self and ask yourself why, I already know the answer, a few others have slowly cottoning on and unfortunately the desperate will remain just that.   

There are more lost souls out there than you can shake a stick at, which is why GR8 will always be a winner, people need to believe. 

[Missmusibat]

To me it's simply two people feuding who haven't put up anything on the board. One talks about a money management that wins him wonders but never shows what it is and another talks about the betselection that is doing him good but doesn't put up.  Two men in the same boat. 

[Rolex-Watch]

To me it's simply two people feuding who haven't put up anything on the board. One talks about a money management that wins him wonders but never shows what it is and another talks about the betselection that is doing him good but doesn't put up.  Two men in the same boat.

Really!  Just pointing out the obvious, incidentally I have posted many bet selection techniques, both here and elsewhere.  As for my MM, yes I haven't posted it here, but has been posted and fully explained, but you would need to point me to any wondrous claims that were posted not for the benefit of the "great one".  However  that is not really the point, I refrain from posting hot-air waffle week in week out, while mentioning the MM I use or claiming success using it without actually revealing anything about it.

On the other hand we have here, somebody claiming some mystical voodoo is statistically proven!!!  Winning few units here and there for what purpose, are we suppose to swoon, do we offer our admiration and congratulations for something we know absolutely nothing about, are we that stup1d to believe everything that is written on a gambling forum of all places, catering to the psychological deficient.

[SSGTFON]

Two men in the same boat.

Sometimes, they switch sides on each other's boat for a while. But never on the same boat at the same time. The gambler's truth is elusive.

[Jimske]

Total loss for the trip:  $100.  A stinkin' hundred bucks.  Heck, I TIP that in the steakhouse when my wife my kids join me.  So, bottom line:  I effectively "eradicated" that 20-unit loss from the day before.  Done and done.

And that is the name of my variance-based game:  Loss Eradication.

Yup, nice to get losses back.  Good for you.  We all have to recoup losses.  If we don't then we end up losing long term.  (sidebar: is it my computer or does this site always freeze while typing?)  So isn't that kinda like everybody's game?  It can be done in different ways but unless you plan to win a lot more hands than lose you're gonna have to increase your bet, right?
 
I get what Rolex is saying about proof and stats.  There is none (excepting asymbacc of course).  Again saying the same old thing - it's a guessing and betting game.  When you talk about provable stats and variance then unless you're willing to share the proof why not just make a trip report and be done with it? 

In generic terms unless you're playing a completely mechanical placement and betting game you basically start with a structure based on existing past bias and choose a betting style.  When it goes south you make switches to the placement and possibly bet style to recoup.  If it doesn't work out you cut your losses.  Unless you're like the typical gambler trying to make a huge kill you know what your limit of losses tend to be and recognize that.

If the shoe is conforming to your placement style then you make some bigger bets hoping to maximize a profit.  Again, you should recognize general high limits and quit that shoe at some general high point.

The above is just the basics of trending.  I play a trend and grind game.  I win most shoes and sessions.  Not a lot.  Sometimes I kick myself for getting out too early.  Reason I do because generally after I quit I sit and record the rest of the shoe. 

IMO if you play enough you should be able to recognize certain trends that ocurr in this game and attempt to make money on them.  Many shoes just non-conforming so you got to just get out hopefully with a small win.  If you play this way.

As far as bet selection goes pick anything you want or prefer.  Know it's nemesis so you can see the game clearly and maybe back off a bit when you see the nemesis start to develop.  I don't like bet selections that make it difficult to follow the trend