Should have named this thread LIARs.
There is really no need to disparage a bet selection which you probably don't recall. He is a pretty smart guy and he asked me not to post publicly, so out of respect I haven't. Anyway we are at cross purposes here, I only mentioned it in passing as a response to Mike, as it kind of makes mathematical sense in the long term. Yet in the real world prone shall we say to get uncomfortable at the tables in other words can produce many LIAR's, only good enough for a table minimum flat bet approach. Like I say I use it to keep a shoe moving if the case arises (playing solo), operates very similar to DBL but makes more sense when you look at it mathematically. It is far from being any type of HG, will likely burn if you use a negative progression, yet should produce a few units profit inside a few shoes. So let's put this to bed, it plays no part in how currently play.
In regards to the general question of LAIRs, in a game of independent trials, you simply just never know. I can't count the LAIR's for the 1/256 option, as I've already overlapped my Excel spreadsheet with other bet options, so would need to clear then redo the exercise to give you precise figures. TBH I much prefer to play live and see how things unfold at the table.
My worst case testing, is 6LIAR which occurred twice in 50 shoes. In my experience one should expect a worst performance when taking methods from the kitchen table to the live table and this 1/256 expectation is no different. 24 hrs ago I got 7LIAR, however the saving grace, is that this occurred once in about 15 shoes. It is easy to get excited about bet placement while testing. Then during live play, along comes the shoe from hell which not only consumes your bankroll, but also zaps your confidence, with what is probably a decent method of play, whereas more attention should be paid to the frequency of the 'shoes from hell'.
Regarding %LAIRs, if I isolated the prime bet selection, the player is not betting enough hands per shoe. 1 or 2, 3 bets, sometimes no bet opportunity within 70 hands. Not practical for live play, so you should get a sense that the LAIR's are going to be very short and manageable, such as 2 or 3 perhaps.