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[amatorsapientia]

I've been reading boards for a while now, and I've dealt for the same amount of time as well. Something I notice, is that everyone tries to find a way to win at every shoe following the same method all the time. Perhaps every method can't be applied to every shoe? I've dealt for 5 years now and have seen various things.

- Patterns are common, but they have their deviation and changes. Let's say it goes BBPPBBPP, everyone will bet on B next hand. I personally would skip to see what happens. If it goes PPP I would wait for it to jump to B, and bet P. My rule says that for one deviation for a pattern, has another deviation about to happen. Same thing if B never went above 3, and player stopped going on long streaks and bank sits at 3 right now, there is a high chance of a 4th bank coming out. 1 hiccup is followed by another hiccup. If that player goes on 4 win, that's a change of pattern to me.
- I look at what cards come out and what the score difference is. A lot of time the sequences are the same for 1-2 decks in the shoes. It cycles though 1-6, 3-7, 7-10(face). I noticed shoes that tend to sway natural wins more to one side, or equal, is also a pattern. If the shoe is jumpy, no more that 3-4 wins, 1 point win, tends to jump based on what cards came out. The cycle of Aces to Faces, tend to leverage more to P getting naturals more often.

Every shoe is different, and every shoe needs you to adjust to it's style, in burst of 10-20 hands. I hope this makes sense to someone.

[Albalaha]

What you see as patterns are only illusion. There is nothing like trends or patterns that you can identify to forecast in a purely random game. This illusion leads to a fallacious mind and other fallacies follow thereafter. At times, we win and at times we lose with that. It changes nothing but still many people feel appropriate doing that. Any betselection can go good to great and bad to worst apart from being average any moment. No forecast/prediction is ever possible.

[Lung Yeh]

I agree with you my good man. On the change in pattern once there is a deviation and the pattern existing for normally 10-20 hands. The rare occasionns only will it extend beyond that.

[alrelax]

Guy makes a lot of sense, playing for nearly 35 years I have been preaching/saying, "Play the shoe-Stop trying to change it"..................but many discount that.  So be it.  It is 1,000% true. 

When I try to change shoes and try to get it to continue a pattern or try to apply a universal 'thought' from previous shoes, IT DOES FAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIMES! 

I observe and laugh so hard at times, my eyes tear.  Listening to the people with the cut after this or cut after that because of so and so.  Yes, at times yes and an equal amount of times no.  You can be at a shoe and every single natural will cut, every single one.  Then another shoe, every single natural stick, every one!  Then when you change, it reverts back as well. 

But the bottom line is, "Play the shoe and stop trying to change it" your results will be obvious.

[alrelax]

I

- Patterns are common, but they have their deviation and changes. Let's say it goes BBPPBBPP, everyone will bet on B next hand. I personally would skip to see what happens. If it goes PPP I would wait for it to jump to B, and bet P. My rule says that for one deviation for a pattern, has another deviation about to happen. Same thing if B never went above 3, and player stopped going on long streaks and bank sits at 3 right now, there is a high chance of a 4th bank coming out. 1 hiccup is followed by another hiccup. If that player goes on 4 win, that's a change of pattern to me.

I have preached and wrote something here before that has served me well.  REMEMBER:  You cannot have a system or a plan to catch everything.  But there is one that will get 2 out of 3 scenarios.  Which is, single bet for the opposite cut.  Double (if you are going to wager) wager for the stick.  You will catch all the repeats and all the repeating /alternating chops that way.  You will lose doubles though.  The "system" works well with conservative betting, when I don't have a reason to follow something else. 

There was a shoe a few weeks ago that had 6, maybe 7  streaks of greater than 3 (from 3 to 8 repeats) and there were two sections of alternating chops of greater than five, 1 was about seven repeats, I think the other was about eight repeats.

The problem with most players "systems/wagering plans" is that they switch up numerous times within one shoe and that IMO does contribute to their failure big time. 

[alrelax]

I agree with you my good man. On the change in pattern once there is a deviation and the pattern existing for normally 10-20 hands. The rare occasionns only will it extend beyond that.

I have preached 'sections' and sections only.  Watch your sections and you will do much better.  Stop trying to apply something from 'section 1' to 'section3 or 4'.  It generally doesn't hold accurate if you are a trend/pattern/bias bettor. 

[MarkTeruya]

Let's say it goes BBPPBBPP, everyone will bet on B next hand. I personally would skip to see what happens. If it goes PPP I would wait for it to jump to B, and bet P. My rule says that for one deviation for a pattern, has another deviation about to happen.

I agree with you my good man.

?

Does this present an advantage?  Are you more times right than wrong? Mathematical proof please?
98% of players play with this mindset, 97.9% of them are long term losers. Why is that?

You see XYZ and you bet A, but the outcome could be A or B
You see ABC and you bet E, but the outcome could be D or F

After so many wrong, right is due, due when?  After you go home broke perhaps.  After you too scared and not bet enough.  And so it goes in circle, if coulda, woulda, shoulda, iiya, chow soy.  Dark age Baccarat, placing emphasis were none actually exists, good luck with that.  Why even waste your mental energy on something that never was and can never be?

Wouldn't it be smarter to focus your mental energy on the reason why you are at the table in the first place, i.e making cash I assume.
How do we do that?  By protecting what we have and utilizing it to the best of our ability.

Guy makes a lot of sense, Not really

You can be at a shoe and every single natural will cut, every single one.  Then another shoe, every single natural stick, every one!  Then when you change, it reverts back as well. 

There's a contradiction, same applies to patterns and trends.  Sometimes it works and most times it won't.  So playing the shoe really is just a 50-50 guess without merit, whereas having a 99.93% chance of winning a bet in a given sequence of hands is measurable, proven mathematically.   What transpires in actually game play can be totally different, unexpected, rewarding or destructive, it doesn't however escape the 99.93% expectation of winning a hand.  It then comes down to how good your money management skills, composure, discipline, patience is. Ooh Rah. 

[alrelax]

?


98% of players play with this mindset, 97.9% of them are long term losers. Why is that?



a 99.93%  99.93% expectation

You have numbers, that is good.  Where do you get them from?  How can they be 100% valid and certified.  Anyone can claim anything.  Numbers look impressive when quoted and some players believe them.  Numbers are great for adding creditability to a statement, paper or work report.  (I know about work reports as I am in the Haz Mat remediation business and I deal with the best of the best A**Holes in the numerous state regulatory agencies and the king of them all the EPA investigators.  But all joking aside, numbers don't mean diddly squat, they are only a sampling of a certain portion of something and then a calculated estimate to arrive at YOUR NUMBER!

God bless, I have 300,000 pounds of disposals sitting on my concrete pad last night that was rejected by a state certified landfill for wrong classification.  FALSE!  I did 2 composite samples (meaning 5 point sampling mixed not a grab sample) from two different portions of the waste stream (the pile of contaminated soil).  My numbers were so and so, straight from the lab, OA-1's, OA-2's, TPH's, EPH's and I even did Total RCRA Metals count.  Everything was exact science, no 2 ways about it.  The landfill gets our shipment, the do a 'grab' sample on a 'hot spot' the TPH & EPH (total petroleum hydrocarbon and extractable petro. hydrocarbon counts) goes through the roof and is many times higher than my lab report.  Of course, it was a grab sample on a hot spot, they reject the loads for mis-classification.  So today we are sending it for incineration out of state for and the client will be paying probably $500k more than what he should.  But someone wants to play with numbers.   

Numbers are not 100%.  Unless you can do a finite calculation of everyone or everything involved, not estimates or calculations based on this 1,000 people doing so and so and then multiplying it by an estimated formula.  Sorry, numbers are not accurate, only accurate for a given controlled purpose and then it would have to be in an environment where you have every parameter and every situation being analyzed.  There is no way to say the exact percentage of people lose or win this much.

P.S.:  My daughter ran one of the largest Indian gaming chains for 15 years that also owns a very large casino chain.  I seen numbers and I have been showed how they calculate their numbers.  LOL.

[MarkTeruya]

You cannot have a system or a plan to catch everything. 

You need to define everything.  In absence of your belief of what construes "everything", I state more or less there are many options that more or less catch everything.  But it is again down to definition, what do you mean by "catch"?

My definition of 'catch' is to win within a series of bets.  Therefore I can also state, no matter what the pattern, trend, hand-sequence, call it what you may, I am able to 'catch' everything and anything except say 14% of any given 3 streak, meaning 86% of the time when there is a 3 streak, I will catch it, as well as catching everything else.  It doesn't have to be restricted 14% of a given streak of 3, could be 20%, or 33% of any repeating 2 or 16% of a streak of 4.  The options are endless and only limited by your MM prowess, which the game is all about. 
Nobody gives a sh1t about the winning hand ratio you achieve, I scored 70% while back over several shoes, big deal, what matters is how much you walk out with.  If I achieve a 70% or 45% strike rate, yes the latter is a struggle, but all that matters is the final monetary outcome. 

So step back of a second, a shoe is choppy, streaky, bit in between, all over the place, mish-mash, or simply random and every hand is random offering the punter no advantage on which side will win next.  So what are your options?  Stir at the score board begging for divine intervention, trying to guess an irrelevant prior pattern / road, or simply bet knowing every hand is random an it doesn't matter what side wins next, what the shoe produces, so long as say your 14% occurrence of a streak of 3 doesn't materialize and mathematically there is a  99.93%  of that not happening.

But wait it is gambling after all so it might happen, but that doesn't really matter because our money management is solid, our composure is grounded, we have the patience of a saint, were on top of our game.  The issue that we do have to content with, is how many times could we possible get hit by some bastard 0.0625% occurrence within the same shoe.  Obviously I'm across all aspects of this type of approach to the game.  It sure saves me a lot of mental energy, fatigue which leads to table frustration, by focusing on what is controllable than something which is utterly futile.         

[MarkTeruya]

You have numbers, that is good.  Where do you get them from?  How can they be 100% valid and certified.  Anyone can claim anything.

Fair point and very easy to answer, unlike one significant other on this forum that claim things are mathematically provable but go shy when asked to produce the proof.

99.9375% chance winning (catch) within a series of bets 99.94% :-)

There are 16 possible outcomes of a given 4 hand sequence.  If the punter were to choose and bet one of those 16 possible 4 hand sequences, stopping after achieving a win, then only one of the 16 options would be a issue, the punters nemesis pattern.  That would be the direct opposite of what they had chosen to play (with me so far)?.  Therefore the chance of being hit, is 1/16, = 0.0625%, or put it another way a 99.94% chance of being correct once in the round robin of bets.

Grab yourself a set of truth tables (high school stuff) for unequivocal validation.  As I stated above, it is only maths and statistics albeit proven, at the tables, anything can and will happen. 

 

[alrelax]

Fair point and very easy to answer, unlike one significant other on this forum that claim things are mathematically provable but go all quiet when asked to prove.

99.9375% chance winning (catch) within a series of bets 99.94% :-)


Grab yourself a set of truth tables (high school stuff) for unequivocal validation.  As I stated above, it is only maths and statistics albeit proven, at the tables, anything can and will happen. 

We are not far off, I just don't believe in numbers for wagering on certain events.  I am not referring to the numbers for other things. 

I will define before what I said gets changed. 

I am referring to someone saying 95% of all people lose XYZ or 99.5% of all gamblers are loser, etc.  There is no way to certifiably substantiate those numbers.  Likewise, there is no way to certify with accuracy someone saying/claiming XYZ will happen after 3 times this and 2 times that in baccarat @ 57.9%, etc. 

Those kind of numbers come from a finite set of test hands and that is it.  What happens in a casino or outside those test hands (no matter if its 2,000,000 or 200,000) means diddly-squat 100%!

[MarkTeruya]

We are not far off, I just don't believe in numbers for wagering on certain events.  I am not referring to the numbers for other things. 

I will define before what I said gets changed. 

I am referring to someone saying 95% of all people lose XYZ or 99.5% of all gamblers are loser, etc.  There is no way to certifiably substantiate those numbers.  Likewise, there is no way to certify with accuracy someone saying/claiming XYZ will happen after 3 times this and 2 times that in baccarat @ 57.9%, etc. 

Those kind of numbers come from a finite set of test hands and that is it.  What happens in a casino or outside those test hands (no matter if its 2,000,000 or 200,000) means diddly-squat 100%!

The remark 99.5% of gamblers are losers was a frivolous statement, I was at the time thinking of the Chinese players I share the tables with and having to listen to their logic of why they bet a certain way, i.e bet the cut because 20 hands ago the same streak also stopped at .... 

My figure of 99.94% has nothing to do with after XYZ has happened 3 times, something different is due (cards having a memory and awareness of what is expected of them).   Other than that, I can not disagree your your post.


Footnote

I made some posts above and forgot to add  Ooh Rah at their conclusion, not wishing to appear superior to the moronic collective, I shall include some extra to compensate.

Ooh Rah Ooh Rah Ooh Rah Ooh Rah Ooh Rah Ooh Rah 

[alrelax]

at the tables, anything can and will happen. 

Exactly.  I saw $30,000.00 plus for 5 players go to the casino the other week on one hand.  It was the proverbial "sure-bet" for the players as they announced.  There was a rock solid pattern, they went opposite because in their reasoning, "it had to change" it could not hold up.  This was a shoe where it finished like 20 plus players over bankers at the end.  It was around the middle of the shoe, maybe 60% of the way into it.  Long player run of 14, I think it was.  One banker and then back to player.  Banker was a natural for the cut, 9 over the players 8.  Player was weak, like winning 3 over 2 or 2 over 1 for the alternating win.  That sent them all into a financial suicide frenzy!  They really based their wagers on the Banker prevailing with a 9 over a strong hand of an 8.  Coupled with an 'almost loss' but just squeaking by type of win with the one point more than the other. 

Their reasoning was, "player just fizzled out, has to be Banker coming on to make up", etc., etc.  They go all in, over $30k, (this is the central Midwest, that is a lot of cash believe me).  Players pull a face and an Ace.  Bankers two face cards.  Players return an 8 for the third card and Banker pulls a losing card.

It wasn't pretty and I did not wager.  I actually wanted Player just because the shoe was so strong and that is the only reason, what the shoe was doing.  I did not wager, I knew many there and when there is serious money, out of respect and motivation, I won't go against a whole table.  I don't want anything to do with their hard earned blood money going to the casino.  Yes, I know I don't or can't change the cards, but some are my people in a way and to win a few hundred and see them lose tens of thousands collectively, I just won't do it.

It is the same as I wrote about a week or two ago, some young kids at the casino wagering one or two green chips and the whole table on the opposite side with blacks and purples and oranges, the 2 new young kids yelling for the other side to pull a monkey to lose.  Sorry, not me. 

[alrelax]

The remark 99.5% of gamblers are losers was a frivolous statement, I was at the time thinking of the Chinese players I share the tables with and having to listen to their logic of why they bet a certain way, i.e bet the cut because 20 hands ago the same streak also stopped at .... 

My figure of 99.94% has nothing to do with after XYZ has happened 3 times, something different is due (cards having a memory and awareness of what is expected of them).   Other than that, I can not disagree your your post.


Footnote

Definitely, at times, 100% (meaning every single person) in occupancy of a seat at the table is a loser.  I gamble with and some are long term losers as well.  I never took pen to paper to see what the numbers are of the ones I know or my wife knows (she is Asian and lots and lots of her friends do play, LOL) and how many are winning or losing and what their numbers are??  I am fairly certain it would not be pretty, agreed.  However, there are some that do fairly well.  Of course, I am not with them 24/7 and they might not disclose some of the truth about their solidary casino trips?

Let's just say, while I leave this conversation to work a while today, that it is like speeding.  Can you honestly say you never went above the posted speed limit.  Oh you say yes, and that is backed up 100% because of your motor vehicle DMV record, no speeding tickets.  I see. But is it possible someone does not exceed the speed limit, sure it is. 

But, I have also been at some winning tables and nothing could go wrong and most cashed out and went home.  Throwing back what they do win, the next day or week or month, is not subjective to the argument unless you are anti-gambling, etc.

I used to love racing and did a couple different forms of it, cars and dirt bikes.  OMG!  What an expensive hobby, drain-drain-drain.  Yes, won money at times, had visions of being a professional and all that, LOL.  Did it for years and spent hundreds of thousands of dollars easily.  Did I keep records, NOPE!  No time, you do it.  I didn't care.  Would not have changed anything except for me to be depressed and hateful with myself, period.  You might be different, not me. 

As far as the statement, 'they wager on the cut because 20 hands ago"..................etc., etc., and so on, YES---I agree and it is a fact, that is what most do, especially the Asians more so than the whites or let's say 'non-Asians'. 

Nothing against the Asian, BTW.  I love them all, except they are a bunch of superstitious, karma is coming, fortune is around the corner, good luck believing, fate seeking, look over your head, incense burning, Buddha praying and a host of other beliefs that are based on colors, stepping in poo-poo, spilling a drink, a small fire burning or many other things, so help me god, weird individuals.  Love them all.

Thanks, Al.

[21 Aces]

If I see one more post about Asian players lose, I'm going to puke blood.  You obviously do not play so shut the hell (you know what really belongs here instead) up.  And this random outcome every hand stuff on every single thread here is annoying as hell also.  Step up to a table and play one hand before you continue to run your mouth with more game math bull.

I already posted the profit data from UNLV's International Gaming Institute so you can save your 499% of gamblers lose bull as well.  This is who I play with every night - THE FEDERAL RESERVE.  They lose, lose, lose, lose, lose, lose, LOSE AT BACCARAT EVERY NIGHT and boom - just print more money.  And that is why I see all of these players at my house all of the time. The just lose and print money!