My take on "systems"

WorldBaccaratKing · November 20, 2014, 07:23:42 PM

1st off, my definition of a system is one that is 100% mechanical that takes away all thoughts and emotions from the player. It is simply, when to place your bet, how much to bet, and on what to bet.

There may be a recovery mode if you lose X amount of units or something similar but in general, there is NO DISCRETION involved on the players end. You are simply a robot executing the game plan.

I think most would agree, there is NOT ONE SYSTEM than can beat every shoe. Sure, some days, weeks, months, hell even years, a system may seem like the holy grail. As I explained in one of my earlier posts, I thought I had one, boy was I wrong!!!!!

I have probably looked over 50 systems, from the NOR from Ellis, to the Dragon systems, to the Benson systems, from Izaks systems, to systems I had Izak program for me, the frankenstein systems, etc, etc. They all end up the same. In the junkyard of systems.....

The only system I would ever consider putting real money on now would be Pit Bosses system. At least in my local casino, it does seem to hold its own and rarely has a bad day.

Why I don't play it all the time is beyond me. I guess I am like most. I am not satisfied grinding out a few units and going home. I want more, I get greedy, I am constantly looking to fine tune things.

I did that for months with the zumma books. I would find something that did so well for the 1st 50 shoes only to give back all the winnings in the next 5-10 shoes. It would make me sick the time and effort only to be reminded of the simple fact that I know in the back of my mind, yet, I have such a hard time accepting!!!

I really wish someone had something worth some substance. I would gladly pay a hefty fee (like 99.99999999% of the baccarat players out there).....

I rambled enough!

Tomla · November 21, 2014, 12:22:41 AM

I liked pitboss also !!!!!! Pitboss usually gave me a couple of units a shoe. greed kills!

soxfan · November 22, 2014, 12:40:36 AM

Years ago I was kicking around some idea with a cat on a member only dice forum. After a while we lost touch but I later found out that he used some of my idea to put together a system that he put on offer for a 1000 bucks a pop. I used to have a strong dislike for the system seller but they no longer bother me. I just always wondered if these system selling cats ever make any kinda decent cake for their endeavor.

james · November 22, 2014, 01:33:47 PM

Usually the system sellers spend a lot of time in developing a system for use by themselves. Then they check the system on paper and to a limited extent in the casinos, and find that the system tanks. They try to recoup the cost, by selling the worthless system.

Perhaps, we will never see a system that is winning, for sale, since they will be using it for themselves.

Then, there are system sellers, who make money by selling systems, like Silverthorne. He sends system literature every week, for craps, baccarat, bj, roulette, etc.

alrelax · November 22, 2014, 08:33:32 PM

James, you are correct. It is more complicated for some to understand, but all in all, you are spot on. There is however, deviations and key-events, but so nobody gets bent outta shape, we can just say some make money with them and some cannot.

esoito · November 22, 2014, 11:19:22 PM

In the UK and Australian horse racing arenas you can kick a bush and a multitude of systems will run out, screaming "buy me...buy me..."

Sadly, the vast majority have been backfitted.

That means, the system seller looks at past results and then devises a system around those results.

So on the sales page, it looks very attractive and profitable.

Numerous, eager hands reach for the card.

But when the punter runs the system the wheels soon fall off.

After all, past results are no guarantee they will continue at the same level into the future.

And that little gem of wisdom applies to ALL systems for ALL types of betting. Yep, baccarat as well.

alrelax · November 26, 2014, 11:44:58 AM

Bottom line is "system" is armchair quarterbacking, same-same. It works for a while and after while it does not, the exact same as guessing or haphazard wagering, it is luck or no luck and luck cannot be defined, chased or asked for, it just comes and goes away. The only thing that works is money management if you win and loss control if you are losing, plain and simple, end of story. Otherwise you would be rich with your system and a multi millionaire or billionaire. Hard core cold fasts, systems are the same as 'key' events or a feeling that turned out correct. What is sad, is the failure to admit and be truthful. The best thing I read on this board is Esoito's definition of 'back fitting' so accurate.

Whiskeypete · March 06, 2015, 01:43:03 PM

Apparently at this beat the casino site Ellis has a new system he is selling that is 100 % mechanical......any thoughts

WorldBaccaratKing · March 06, 2015, 01:54:13 PM

Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 06, 2015, 01:43:03 PM
Apparently at this beat the casino site Ellis has a new system he is selling that is 100 % mechanical......any thoughts

He has many systems. NOR, MDB and his newest creation not yet for sale 2HI. I have NOR. It is like any other system, it works some of the time. MDB you can read on his own site members saying they can't get it to work in their casino! Ummmmmmmm, that makes 0 sense and he should have a guarantee on that. It may work in some casinos and not others! LOL, anyways, that's my 2 cents.

Sputnik · March 06, 2015, 04:16:03 PM

I don't know what impression i have about his methods and have always been against paying for methods.
But there is one exception, The MDB method, it is based upon principals i like, where you play for bigger amount of money.

John posted one method based upon that and MDB is based upon same principal, that why i considering buy it.
But then again 1.2K is much money and i have now 5K bankroll.

Maybe if i could make 1K each week i would buy it and not care so much.

Cheers

WorldBaccaratKing · March 06, 2015, 05:06:54 PM

Quote from: Sputnik on March 06, 2015, 04:16:03 PM
I don't know what impression i have about his methods and have always been against paying for methods.
But there is one exception, The MDB method, it is based upon principals i like, where you play for bigger amount of money.

John posted one method based upon that and MDB is based upon same principal, that why i considering buy it.
But then again 1.2K is much money and i have now 5K bankroll.

Maybe if i could make 1K each week i would buy it and not care so much.

Cheers

If you know the method why would you buy it? makes no sense

Sputnik · March 06, 2015, 05:16:45 PM

Who say the details is the same if the method is based upon same principal.
They might aim for same winning target using different path to reach the final goal.

For example, i always look at what kind of algorithm or march some one should use to catch regression after 3+ std (tendency play)
One old and common way to deal with Marigny's work.

Method 1 above and now to same method but number 2 (details)

One member say he simulate the extreme with 3+ std and reach around 5.00 std (peak) after milions of trails.
And continue with that if you wait for 3+, then you will face a probability window of 2.0 std at most, but it happen once, so most of times you will face less.

This change everything (details) and still same method, but with different approch.
Now i know like a card counter what to expect, i have a probaility window with less then 12 events versus 2 events (2.0 std) so 3 event or more is what i can expect amoung less then 12 events.
This means i don't need do use a algorithm or march with tendency play as we define the bell curve having limits.
Now i can start to experiment with gap methodology and diversification with known expectation.
I know during my life time that i would be very unlucky if i broke the world reckord of 5.00 STD.

Same method, but with different details.

Whiskeypete · March 06, 2015, 05:48:59 PM

Well everyone I spoke to said the mdb doesn't work and members feel very cheated by ellis, because they feel ellis did a pump and dump shuffle.....his latest post about some 2 hi system isn't even his......so I feel a bit skeptical. On top of that, there is some Australian named ozcooter making some big claims that has people there believing him such as he bets 10k a hand and that ellis nor is what he is using and has made millions......and members are all following...I'm reserved on this for now.

Sputnik · March 06, 2015, 05:51:15 PM

I am also skeptical towards Ellis work - i just wanted to point out that even if two methods use the same principal overall so can the details be very different.

Cheers

Whiskeypete · March 06, 2015, 05:56:52 PM

Last night I went through some of his postings and it seems every 4 months he comes up with something and then pumps it up like its the next best thing.....question is why are the older systems the ones he sticking with? Also, in 2007 he wrote no mechinacal system ever works, now a week ago he wrote that mechinacal systems are the only way to win.....sounds like snake oil out of both sides of his mouth.....reminds me of that kool aid guy in guyana and bill Clinton......I did not have relations with her....lol