1st off, my definition of a system is one that is 100% mechanical that takes away all thoughts and emotions from the player. It is simply, when to place your bet, how much to bet, and on what to bet.
There may be a recovery mode if you lose X amount of units or something similar but in general, there is NO DISCRETION involved on the players end. You are simply a robot executing the game plan.
I think most would agree, there is NOT ONE SYSTEM than can beat every shoe. Sure, some days, weeks, months, hell even years, a system may seem like the holy grail. As I explained in one of my earlier posts, I thought I had one, boy was I wrong!!!!!
I have probably looked over 50 systems, from the NOR from Ellis, to the Dragon systems, to the Benson systems, from Izaks systems, to systems I had Izak program for me, the frankenstein systems, etc, etc. They all end up the same. In the junkyard of systems.....
The only system I would ever consider putting real money on now would be Pit Bosses system. At least in my local casino, it does seem to hold its own and rarely has a bad day.
Why I don't play it all the time is beyond me. I guess I am like most. I am not satisfied grinding out a few units and going home. I want more, I get greedy, I am constantly looking to fine tune things.
I did that for months with the zumma books. I would find something that did so well for the 1st 50 shoes only to give back all the winnings in the next 5-10 shoes. It would make me sick the time and effort only to be reminded of the simple fact that I know in the back of my mind, yet, I have such a hard time accepting!!!
I really wish someone had something worth some substance. I would gladly pay a hefty fee (like 99.99999999% of the baccarat players out there).....
I rambled enough! :)
I liked pitboss also !!!!!! Pitboss usually gave me a couple of units a shoe. greed kills!
Years ago I was kicking around some idea with a cat on a member only dice forum. After a while we lost touch but I later found out that he used some of my idea to put together a system that he put on offer for a 1000 bucks a pop. I used to have a strong dislike for the system seller but they no longer bother me. I just always wondered if these system selling cats ever make any kinda decent cake for their endeavor.
Usually the system sellers spend a lot of time in developing a system for use by themselves. Then they check the system on paper and to a limited extent in the casinos, and find that the system tanks. They try to recoup the cost, by selling the worthless system.
Perhaps, we will never see a system that is winning, for sale, since they will be using it for themselves.
Then, there are system sellers, who make money by selling systems, like Silverthorne. He sends system literature every week, for craps, baccarat, bj, roulette, etc.
James, you are correct. It is more complicated for some to understand, but all in all, you are spot on. There is however, deviations and key-events, but so nobody gets bent outta shape, we can just say some make money with them and some cannot.
In the UK and Australian horse racing arenas you can kick a bush and a multitude of systems will run out, screaming "buy me...buy me..."
Sadly, the vast majority have been backfitted.
That means, the system seller looks at past results and then devises a system around those results.
So on the sales page, it looks very attractive and profitable.
Numerous, eager hands reach for the card.
But when the punter runs the system the wheels soon fall off.
After all, past results are no guarantee they will continue at the same level into the future.
And that little gem of wisdom applies to ALL systems for ALL types of betting. Yep, baccarat as well. :nod:
Bottom line is "system" is armchair quarterbacking, same-same. It works for a while and after while it does not, the exact same as guessing or haphazard wagering, it is luck or no luck and luck cannot be defined, chased or asked for, it just comes and goes away. The only thing that works is money management if you win and loss control if you are losing, plain and simple, end of story. Otherwise you would be rich with your system and a multi millionaire or billionaire. Hard core cold fasts, systems are the same as 'key' events or a feeling that turned out correct. What is sad, is the failure to admit and be truthful. The best thing I read on this board is Esoito's definition of 'back fitting' so accurate.
Apparently at this beat the casino site Ellis has a new system he is selling that is 100 % mechanical......any thoughts
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 06, 2015, 01:43:03 PM
Apparently at this beat the casino site Ellis has a new system he is selling that is 100 % mechanical......any thoughts
He has many systems. NOR, MDB and his newest creation not yet for sale 2HI. I have NOR. It is like any other system, it works some of the time. MDB you can read on his own site members saying they can't get it to work in their casino! Ummmmmmmm, that makes 0 sense and he should have a guarantee on that. It may work in some casinos and not others! LOL, anyways, that's my 2 cents.
I don't know what impression i have about his methods and have always been against paying for methods.
But there is one exception, The MDB method, it is based upon principals i like, where you play for bigger amount of money.
John posted one method based upon that and MDB is based upon same principal, that why i considering buy it.
But then again 1.2K is much money and i have now 5K bankroll.
Maybe if i could make 1K each week i would buy it and not care so much.
Cheers
Quote from: Sputnik on March 06, 2015, 04:16:03 PM
I don't know what impression i have about his methods and have always been against paying for methods.
But there is one exception, The MDB method, it is based upon principals i like, where you play for bigger amount of money.
John posted one method based upon that and MDB is based upon same principal, that why i considering buy it.
But then again 1.2K is much money and i have now 5K bankroll.
Maybe if i could make 1K each week i would buy it and not care so much.
Cheers
If you know the method why would you buy it? makes no sense
Who say the details is the same if the method is based upon same principal.
They might aim for same winning target using different path to reach the final goal.
For example, i always look at what kind of algorithm or march some one should use to catch regression after 3+ std (tendency play)
One old and common way to deal with Marigny's work.
Method 1 above and now to same method but number 2 (details)
One member say he simulate the extreme with 3+ std and reach around 5.00 std (peak) after milions of trails.
And continue with that if you wait for 3+, then you will face a probability window of 2.0 std at most, but it happen once, so most of times you will face less.
This change everything (details) and still same method, but with different approch.
Now i know like a card counter what to expect, i have a probaility window with less then 12 events versus 2 events (2.0 std) so 3 event or more is what i can expect amoung less then 12 events.
This means i don't need do use a algorithm or march with tendency play as we define the bell curve having limits.
Now i can start to experiment with gap methodology and diversification with known expectation.
I know during my life time that i would be very unlucky if i broke the world reckord of 5.00 STD.
Same method, but with different details.
Well everyone I spoke to said the mdb doesn't work and members feel very cheated by ellis, because they feel ellis did a pump and dump shuffle.....his latest post about some 2 hi system isn't even his......so I feel a bit skeptical. On top of that, there is some Australian named ozcooter making some big claims that has people there believing him such as he bets 10k a hand and that ellis nor is what he is using and has made millions......and members are all following...I'm reserved on this for now.
I am also skeptical towards Ellis work - i just wanted to point out that even if two methods use the same principal overall so can the details be very different.
Cheers
Last night I went through some of his postings and it seems every 4 months he comes up with something and then pumps it up like its the next best thing.....question is why are the older systems the ones he sticking with? Also, in 2007 he wrote no mechinacal system ever works, now a week ago he wrote that mechinacal systems are the only way to win.....sounds like snake oil out of both sides of his mouth.....reminds me of that kool aid guy in guyana and bill Clinton......I did not have relations with her....lol
The best "system" I ever came across was Star System. In fact, I know a cat who has used it for years at the dice table, and has made a very good income with it, hey hey.
Wicked awesome but can you use it in baccarat
Soxfan,
There is a Chapter in Craig Greiner's classic ''The Future Gambler'' titled 'Symmetrical Patterns from Asymmetrical Relationships' for the dice table.
Craps was this guys main game and this was a pretty detailed way to win. There is only one full sized craps table from what I am aware of in my neck of the woods down in London.
I am only mentioning it because the title of the chapter reminds me of our own AsymBacGuy.
I will get around to studying it and post it up. I like the Star Myself. It can be a forgiving progression at times.
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 06, 2015, 09:36:34 PM
Wicked awesome but can you use it in baccarat
Of course, you can use Star at the baccarats, though I think it is better suited to the dice. But ya gotta have the balls, bankroll, and access to a joint that allows a fat spred between min/max bets so you can play the thing, as written, hey hey.
Quote from: horus on March 06, 2015, 09:44:24 PM
Soxfan,
There is a Chapter in Craig Greiner's classic ''The Future Gambler'' titled 'Symmetrical Patterns from Asymmetrical Relationships' for the dice table.
Craps was this guys main game and this was a pretty detailed way to win. There is only one full sized craps table from what I am aware of in my neck of the woods down in London.
I am only mentioning it because the title of the chapter reminds me of our own AsymBacGuy.
I will get around to studying it and post it up. I like the Star Myself. It can be a forgiving progression at times.
I've enevr read that book, but I've always felt the dice game was more likely to stay in balance than the baccarats. At dice, the 7's act as a check on both long pass, and don't pass streak, so much better especially for the anti-streak style, hey hey.
Here is my thoughts. If Ellis could make so much money, why on earth would he sell it for 500 or 1200? The only reason would be he is terminally ill or he wants to save every human who is poor and show them the holy grail.
There is no other plausible explanation. He is a system seller like the other 100000 out there. Nothing wrong with that at all. But, MDB, NOR (which I have) works sometimes, and MOST of the time, IT doesn't.
This 2HI new system, well, I would LOVE to EAT my own WORDS, I REALLY WOULD! But, I 'think', it will be like the others. Again, Ellis could probably scrap together 10k and really parlay that into some serious coin, much more coin than he is going to make selling it, that's a guarantee.
As far as this OZ guy, again, I like proof. I want to see proof. alrelax seems like a nice guy, says he bets x amount and wins 25k like no biggy, and maybe he does. But, I want proof. Show me some 25k chips, 5k chips, etc. If you can take 100000 pics of this and that and food and sharks, simple enough to snap a pic or a chip, NO?
So, I don't believe OZ bets 5k units. When he shoes me 100k in chips or close to it, maybe I will.
This is the internet, you can say you are king kong and have powers and can fly. Super, just show me and then I will believe you. You can say you're 500 years old and are a vampire! WICKED! Please show me that!!!! Otherwise, its all stuff, rigmarole. My new boots are getting quite the workout this past week....
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 07, 2015, 02:03:36 AM
My new boots are getting quite the workout this past week....
Can I recommend a nice pair of hip waders. [smiley]aes/tongue.png[/smiley]
[attachimg=1]
Well I agree....anything can be said on the Internet. That's sorta what pisses my off about Ellis and his new henchman Ozcooter....they prey on people. I have yet to find one person that has made a million dollars off of mdb as promised.....does mdb work...perhaps some of the time, other times it's a bust.
Then you got this Ozcooter guy who says he wins with Ellis and bets 5k....just to help Ellis win. I bet oz actually is just another braggard solely there to help Ellis fleece the flock.
I don't visit ECD's site as I don't want to feel dirty. Can you find out which Oz casino the ozcooter plays at, I might be able to watch out for him..
Quote from: Jimske on March 07, 2015, 03:06:31 PM
Seems doubtful that longer runs ocurr less frequently. IMO dice probably one of the best mechanical RNG. But here are some thousands of real dice results from Bailey. Anybody got the time? Count some beans.
Years ago, I crunched some number and compared dice line result with mini-bac results and noriced a different streak signature with longer streaks at the baccarats. Mind you, it was a limited sample size but makes sense with the baccrats drawing rule in favor of the bankers outcome, hey hey.
Tomla...or anyone..
I lost my Pitboss Strategy and would like to take another look at it. Could someone post it or email it to me at crapwinner﹫aol.com.
Thanks
Bud
Rashid-he plays in Australia so he says..lol his probably in Wisconsin and never play much less 5k a hand. Your signature is weird. Do you have multiple personalities or something
I hope nobody here will fall for the flavor of the month from Ellis Davis. Its complete nonsense. I should know, I'm a member there.
Don't join MDB is a rip off. But then again so is NOR, as well as 4D, as well as everything else that crazy man has sold to the public as the answer to you baccarat riches.
Its all stuff.
He has some new system getting ready to launch.....I wonder how many of his 4985 members play mdb......some here posted it and all it seems is like a regression of the means....but it seems it can bust very easily......
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 07, 2015, 05:29:09 PM
Well I agree....anything can be said on the Internet. That's sorta what pisses my off about Ellis and his new henchman Ozcooter....they prey on people. I have yet to find one person that has made a million dollars off of mdb as promised.....does mdb work...perhaps some of the time, other times it's a bust.
Then you got this Ozcooter guy who says he wins with Ellis and bets 5k....just to help Ellis win. I bet oz actually is just another braggard solely there to help Ellis fleece the flock.
oz probably making money but I assure you he does not play mdb him and norm play there own way using some ideas from ellis and there own progression
I read a post from ozcooter that suggest he supported Ellis and the mdb....so I thought he was playing the mdb. So the members at BTC don't even play mdb? I am sure ozcooter is not a professional the way he sucks up to ellis. He is just a hired writer.
Confused-since you are a member there what is the private forum like? Do many people post there and show their successful shoes and help others out?
Well I'm curious why he charges so much for mdb. ellis reads posts here?jim this thread is about systems right?
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 08, 2015, 02:37:12 PM
Confused-since you are a member there what is the private forum like? Do many people post there and show their successful shoes and help others out?
My BTC name is different than my name here, just FYI. The modus operandi for the BTC is Ellis sells his latest system that makes all kinds of promises to beat any and all baccarat games and then the forum spends the next months or years trying to tweak it so it can actually do what Ellis promised in the first place. MDB is no exception. The MDB video with Keith and other members "discussing" how to play MDB is typical of what you'll find on the forum.
Ellis used to teach that you can't win playing a mechanical system but now teaches you can. Go figure.
The guy is a con artist in the highest sense. He is able to con smart people time and time again when they should know better.
My advice to you is not to fall for his BS.
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 08, 2015, 02:37:12 PM
Confused-since you are a member there what is the private forum like? Do many people post there and show their successful shoes and help others out?
Oops, I didn't really answer you questions did I?
There are usually just a handful of members that post on the private forum. As far as posting shoes, that always a waste of time in my opinion. The posting shoes is that they are always played after the fact. Try posting a shoe here on this forum. What do you get? Every wanker and his brother stating that they made easy money on such an easy shoe....yeah right. Ellis and his lackeys are always the Kings of showing you how to play AFTER the fact.
So to answer you question, the forum is mostly a ghost town, with a few "know-it-alls" thrown in.
Confused....thanks for the info....I was wondering if the private forum is a place where all the members frequent but I guess if it's a ghost town, that's says everything!!
Does ozcooter discuss methods too or is he just a pumper fluffier
Quote from: Whiskeypete on March 08, 2015, 09:26:04 PM
Confused....thanks for the info....I was wondering if the private forum is a place where all the members frequent but I guess if it's a ghost town, that's says everything!!
Does ozcooter discuss methods too or is he just a pumper fluffier
Careful, there is a MOD here name ADULAY, him and Ellis are buds and he uses Ellis's methods I think to some degree. He may correct me!
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on March 08, 2015, 11:26:51 PM
Careful, there is a MOD here name ADULAY, him and Ellis are buds and he uses Ellis's methods I think to some degree. He may correct me!
Why would he need to "be careful" because of me being here? Am I some sort of direct conduit to ECD's email? (Here's hint.... NOT)
Talk about anybody you want here. Not really any of my business. (Which would also explain my lack of involvement with this thread up to this point).
I'm starting to think a lot of you guys are really getting paranoid or something!
AD
Thanks for the advice world king......I was on the BTC site asking questions and some douche bag called me snarky.....imagine that, me snarky....probably another one of ellis boys.....I was trying to feel out the site....people there are rude as stuff.
why are posts being deleted? Ellis making noise I guess...
HAHA
Now the few BTC members that are left on the forum are trying to convince Ellis to sell them his latest greatest grail at a discount because they already purchased his other grails....lol
You idiots at BTC don't understand Ellis is making his monthly nut off of you. If his grail systems were so great he could make all the money he needed playing them. And please don't say he does this because Ellis is too old to go the casino. BS. What about online casinos?
Trust me, if there existed baccarat systems that actually did what Ellis say they do, I wouldn't leave the casino. Too ripe.
Keep the scammers hungry don't buy his stuff.
Lots of posts GONE. Thought this was about 'transparency'? Guess that didn't fly well. Jimske's MDb base bets are POOF. Wonder why?
Wonder who removed them?
Jim-are you buying the 2 hi?
Quote from: Jimske on March 11, 2015, 04:30:10 PM
I generally get all of Ellis's systems. but I don't study them or play them. I got no interest in them.
I would hope you getting them means for free, otherwise, it makes about as much sense as wiping before you poop....
Quote from: horus on March 06, 2015, 09:44:24 PM
Soxfan,
There is a Chapter in Craig Greiner's classic ''The Future Gambler'' titled 'Symmetrical Patterns from Asymmetrical Relationships' for the dice table.
Craps was this guys main game and this was a pretty detailed way to win. There is only one full sized craps table from what I am aware of in my neck of the woods down in London.
I am only mentioning it because the title of the chapter reminds me of our own AsymBacGuy.
I will get around to studying it and post it up.
That's interesting!
as.
I will study it over the weekend Asym and give the lowdown on it sometime early next week.
I am in the in the middle of some research on 'hot numbers' at the moment. The first repeat on the 6th, 7th or 8th spin looks to be a good angle of attack according to the stats. I have gone off a previous idea where I waited for a number/s to hit twice before attacking them. Catching that first repeat can be profitable in a kind of rolling 6,7,8 spin framework.
Quote from: horus on March 12, 2015, 09:00:59 PM
I will study it over the weekend Asym and give the lowdown on it sometime early next week.
I am in the in the middle of some research on 'hot numbers' at the moment. The first repeat on the 6th, 7th or 8th spin looks to be a good angle of attack according to the stats. I have gone off a previous idea where I waited for a number/s to hit twice before attacking them. Catching that first repeat can be profitable in a kind of rolling 6,7,8 spin framework.
:thumbsup:
as.
Quote from: confused gambler on March 11, 2015, 05:04:36 AM
Trust me, if there existed baccarat systems that actually did what Ellis say they do, I wouldn't leave the casino. Too ripe.
Keep the scammers hungry don't buy his stuff.
LOL, damn right. The day one of these scammers produces the key to the kingdom of wealth, it ain't gonna be offered for sale at any price, because once you do that, you lose control of it.
But rest assured,
that day can never come, because as it's been proven over and over, mathematically it simply can't exist.
The keys to winning are, in reverse order;
3 - A bet selection that shouldn't lose a series of bets too often.
2 - Self discipline and composure, experience of having your back-side in the chair at the table helps immensely.
1 - Solid foundation in money management and healthy bankroll, this game is all about money, plain and simple. You're not so much interested in guessing which side will win next, rather you're there putting your money at risk in order to take some of theirs. Results of individual hands is not really that significant, but you can become seduced by it.
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on March 13, 2015, 08:34:46 PM
LOL, damn right. The day one of these scammers produces the key to the kingdom of wealth, it ain't gonna be offered for sale at any price, because once you do that, you lose control of it.
But rest assured, that day can never come, because as it's been proven over and over, mathematically it simply can't exist.
Right.
as.
Quote from: Jimske on March 13, 2015, 09:25:49 PM
Hard to argue with that reality. Item 3 looks like a provable math problem one way or another. I have always said (thought) If one can find a BS that reduces the LIAR from the expected then we've got the holy grail.
I have one that significantly reduces the LAIR's compared to 3 and 4 column template betting options. 4 times 4 LAIR on average per 8 shoes, you can play a few shoes and never see 4LAIR which is kind of neat when that happens, then you can get two in a single shoe, I had 3 in one shoe a few nights ago when playing on-line, which I thought was strange. I reckon the W v's L ratio is reduced (not really sure as I'm not into those sort of stats).
However there is some work still to do, because I use two progressions to protect me from any shoe from hell, because you just never know... So the first progression may have to handle 8LIAR because I continue to lose early placed bets.
Quote from: horus on March 06, 2015, 09:44:24 PM
Soxfan,
There is a Chapter in Craig Greiner's classic ''The Future Gambler'' titled 'Symmetrical Patterns from Asymmetrical Relationships' for the dice table.
Craps was this guys main game and this was a pretty detailed way to win. There is only one full sized craps table from what I am aware of in my neck of the woods down in London.
I am only mentioning it because the title of the chapter reminds me of our own AsymBacGuy.
I will get around to studying it and post it up. I like the Star Myself. It can be a forgiving progression at times.
Well, I hope that you post up the craps info from Future Gambler. As I recall the mongoose style is outlined in that book and a cat called the swami used that progression for years with good result, hey hey.
Well well well. Looks like Ellis scam 2hi doesn't work at all and now he is asking forum members to help he fix the problem after it doesn't work. And I'm sure he isn't refunding anyone their money....
Ellis has no shame. He has been doing this stuff for a long time. His U2Hi is just another version of his failed
"twister" system. The man is a crook.
FYI he advertises his U2Hi as averaging 6 units per shoe....no try 1/2 a unit a shoe. And that's with only a 100 shoe sample.
What a joke.
Yeah I heard it losses more shoes than it wins...maybe the people who paid for it will be able to fix it for him. Perhaps ADulay will be helping out too. I bet the OZCOOTER isn't around to help him either.
For those that recall the defunct "BaccaratForums" web-site, may remember the copious number of times "our moderator" mentioned he won playing this or that Ellis system, when pressed for further information nothing was ever forthcoming, he was pulled up on it numerous times.
Anybody posting a shoe, would receive the standard response from our moderator, twister/Nor/AOW made xx units from that shoe. An insidious way to promote and direct desperate people to handing over $400 to join BTC to pay for Ellis's care so they could be part of the team to help fix the systems that didn't work. As guilty as the rest of the scammers our seahog.