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[marinetech]

I've been playing higher and higher lately, betting 300 minimum up to 4k per hand. Avg. bet is roughly 1k (i ask). I have had good days winning 10k plus but never the huge days of 50-100k.

I have a decent sized bankroll, 50k-100k.

90%+ of the time, I am ahead 500-1k within 1-5 bets. Easily. Other night, 1st bet was 600, won, bet 900, won. Quick 1500 in 2 hands. Yet, I didn't stop. Proceeded to go down 8k, and played 1500-4k a hand, got back to up 1k and stopped. That doesn't always happen that way.

So basically, my new plan is this: Win 500-1k a day, that's 18k-36k every single month if I can pull it off and is decent money for most.

Obviously, there will be days (rare ones) when I get down and can't make it back so I will use a stop of 5k and call it a day. I should still be profitable each week. Im keeping a journal now and will report back.

I also trade stocks and I have did this same thing the past few weeks and it has worked well. Making 3-5k a week and calling it quits. Again, that's 12-20k a month. Obviously, I would have to pay capital gains on my stock profit at the end of the year to the tune of 35% or so. But can't get around that.

I think going for singles and doubles in the long run, you can beat this game. Home runs do occur, just more infrequently and your bankroll is being put in a much bigger position to get dwindled down.....

Love to hear any comments or if anyone has did this.....

[Sputnik]

Just want to understand this topic as we are from different countrys with different currency.
1K is that 100$ or 1000$

I have above 5000 EUR and soon reach 10.000 EUR and would never dear to play does amounts of money as base bet.
I would be scared to lose big part of my bankroll betting the way you do.

Cheers

[21 Aces]

I put up a thread Easy Panda vs Hard Dragon that you might want to check out and the discussions on money management cover it.  The more achievable targets are, the more likely you are to hit and just jet.  But you can push hard with stops below so you are setting protection in place.

It's variance  management.

[alrelax]

I would seriously attempt to convey to you, if you have a 5k stop loss or whatever it is, that is all you should bring to the casino, no matter what. 

If you are playing for comp and trying to rack up points, it will haunt you in the long run.

If your stop loss is truly $5k, all you are doing is putting your bankroll at risk.

I have had numerous friends and casino playing partners that have lost similar and more by declaring close to what you suggest.  There is the heat of the moment, there is the over self confidence and there is the time that you will rack up good wins-gove it all back, try again and win and then lose and then you will keep trying and your bank roll will go away.  Don't do it IMO. 

Unless you are truly going to play $1k to $3-$5k a hand when the opportunity is present and you will risk it all, you are not providing yourself any cushion or advantage by buying in with more than your stop loss.  IMO and I have been there and witnessed and experienced everything I am citing.  Thanks. Good Luck.

[brokerny]

marine, alrelax is right about your strategy. unless you really commit to that stop loss and you change the amounts you bet by lowering it a bit. a small losing streak will get you to 5K in minutes and its up to your mental game to walk away and not buyin for more to try to win it all back or some of it at least.

is your baccarat bankroll for your stock trading as well? or do you have 50K-100K each? do you ever withdraw money from your stock account to use at the casinos?

i don't do consistent stock trades, but once in a while ill dabble in buying some options for speculations. i started currency trading but its taking a back seat right now as im focusing much more on my baccarat play.

[alrelax]

I have a decent sized bankroll, 50k-100k.


So basically, my new plan is this: Win 500-1k a day, that's 18k-36k every single month if I can pull it off and is decent money for most.

Obviously, there will be days (rare ones) when I get down and can't make it back so I will use a stop of 5k and call it a day. I should still be profitable each week. Im keeping a journal now and will report back.





Love to hear any comments or if anyone has did this.....

I will seriously give you the benefit of the doubt or anyone that attempts something like this.  You mention "rare" they are not so rare my friend, not by far.

I would estimate (no wish intended, just pure remembrance of people I know that tried, my own smaller wins attempted 3 days a week, etc., etc.  And that is, no better than 50%.  Your stop loss is $5k, X's 15 days.  Small wins which are very very possible, say $500 to $1,500 for such wins immediately within a few hands and then immediately leaving, which almost none do and will not do.  But say you do, X's the $500 to $1,500 X's another 15.  There is your answer. 

Playing each and every day is a huge monumental task at baccarat.  Wish you all the luck, if you could do this, so could hundred fo thousand of others in each locale and those tables would not be there.

I have a close 'casino friend' I wrote about in my Blog.  He came into the casino never playing bac before with about $1,500 or so and won $10k.  For about one month, he probably got up to about $50k or so.  Then for months and months he gave it all back, his a savings of at least $50-$75k, sold a paid for luxury car and many other items.  All gone.  He finally stopped.  That is NOT a lone story that happens all the time in each and every casino.   Seriously.

[marinetech]

I appreciate all the comments!

So, last night I started at 200 a hand, got down 1k, kept at around 2-500 per hand, got ahead finally 500, bet it and won, net was 950 after commission and all was said and done...

I am ahead 600-1k 80-90% of my time in the beginning of playing. Many times I am down and get back to even and then risk a little more to get ahead. If that doesn't happen, I stop and that's it..

I am off to the casino. I will update later...

[jsintl]

I appreciate all the comments!

So, last night I started at 200 a hand, got down 1k, kept at around 2-500 per hand, got ahead finally 500, bet it and won, net was 950 after commission and all was said and done...

I am ahead 600-1k 80-90% of my time in the beginning of playing. Many times I am down and get back to even and then risk a little more to get ahead. If that doesn't happen, I stop and that's it..

I am off to the casino. I will update later...

Hey do you use pitboss as your bet selection or you are betting based on trends.  Thanks and good luck.

[brokerny]

hey marine, i wish you lots of luck as well, but all good things will come to an end. especially in gambling. you have to be level headed and not get too overconfidence, EVER! a friend of mine told me a story of someone she knew at the casino. he would bring 6K to the casino as a bankroll and his daily goal was just to win $100/day. he did it for several years, building up a nice nest egg. that one day came along, and he couldnt win at all. not only that, he loses control and keeps taking money out and im sure you know the story from here. in the end, he lost EVERYTHING!, including his wife and kids. maybe if he didn't lose control, he would still be doing it today. its all the mind game at first! and where it leads is up to the individual.

[Lungyeh]

Can somebody please explain to me what is the pitboss bet selection method?

[8OR9]

As has been mentioned many times here in the past....don't think in dollars or euros......think in percentages.......such as .......

1. What  % of my bankroll will I bet on each hand (minimum and maximum % if you are using a progression )

2. What maximum % of my bankroll will I risk on one shoe

3. What maximum % of my bankroll will I risk on one session...( a session can be anything you feel like such as the number of shoes you play starting from the time you enter a casino until the time you leave the casino...........or a fixed number of shoes such as play 3 shoes and quit and that is a session).

4. What range of percentages will I try to win for each shoe and each session .....such  as try to win between 1% and 2 % of bankroll for each shoe and 2% or 3 % of bankroll for each session.

The main idea is to be conservative in your percentages so you are able to withstand the inevitable long losing streaks.

Of course no one does this because:

1. They are too lazy

2. And most people just like to gamble, have a good time and get an adrenaline rush .........and not try to "Win Money".........which is why casinos keep on building multi billion dollar casinos with the money lost by gamblers.

In my next post, I will explain the mathematical and psychological difficulties in determining the relationship between taking profits and losses.

[marinetech]

hey everyone.

Went to Rivers casino in Schenectady, NY. Bought in for 10k, bet 2-500, then was out 2k, high bet was 2k, ended up with my 1k win.

Went to Turning Stone casino in NY, high bet was 500, took about 10 hands (some nice 3x3's occurred), hit my 1k goal fairly easy.

2 days, up 3k.

if I use 100k as my bankroll, I am looking at 1% a day profit. MY stop loss is 5k for the day. Am I going to get clipped? Sure, I am hoping I have a cushion from profits and I am almost there, 2k away before I would get clipped.......

If I get lucky for a month, I am looking at 30k+ a month in profits.

I do what the shoe is doing, I watch the 1st 3-4 hands and decide. If its chopping, I bet the chop, if I see 2x2's, I play it, any run, I am on......when it gets nuts, I sit and wait for it to get back on track (at least in my mind!). Sometimes I do use PB method when I never see it go past (3), which happens a lot lately. I will base bet of 300, then 600.....

[alrelax]

hey everyone.

Went to Rivers casino in Schenectady, NY. Bought in for 10k, bet 2-500, then was out 2k, high bet was 2k, ended up with my 1k win.

Went to Turning Stone casino in NY, high bet was 500, took about 10 hands (some nice 3x3's occurred), hit my 1k goal fairly easy.

2 days, up 3k.

if I use 100k as my bankroll, I am looking at 1% a day profit. MY stop loss is 5k for the day. Am I going to get clipped? Sure, I am hoping I have a cushion from profits and I am almost there, 2k away before I would get clipped.......

If I get lucky for a month, I am looking at 30k+ a month in profits.

I do what the shoe is doing, I watch the 1st 3-4 hands and decide. If its chopping, I bet the chop, if I see 2x2's, I play it, any run, I am on......when it gets nuts, I sit and wait for it to get back on track (at least in my mind!). Sometimes I do use PB method when I never see it go past (3), which happens a lot lately. I will base bet of 300, then 600.....

I have been preaching 'follow what the shoe is producing and stop the stupid playing for the cut':








Pouncing on the shoe. What I do.

« on: March 17, 2017, 11:08:22 am »

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Here is a sample.  Certain sections and certain productions, give me the 100% fuel to capitalize.  Can be different or the same, depending on what I am seeing with pattern, winning point values, losing point value reductions, etc.  Almost every one of the first 20 hands was a strong win by high point value and when 3rd card draws were dealt to the side that lost, it would almost every time reduce that side to near zero or maybe a 1-2-or 3 total value to the other side 7-8 or 9.  It was screaming, follow me daddy, and I would have 100% if that was in a B&M, like where I am going tonight.  Here it is almost play by play when I would have started to wager.

I would have started after the 2 Players-2 Bankers-Single Player-Single Banker- 3 Players.

I would have pounced on it with my 1st wager on the Banker cut after the 3 Players. And then I would have pressed and probably added another amount equal to the original and pressed win.  I would have kept that up for the 2nd and the 3rd Bankers as well.

I would have pounced hard on the cut for the Player after the 3rd Banker.  I won the 3 Bankers that matched the 3 Players, side by side.  I figured due to the number point values, the reduction of point value for the losing side and the pattern (it was matching-2 P's, 2 B's, 2 Chops) that just what happened, happened and I would have caught all 3 and the fourth one with the cut back to the Player.  Then I would have stopped for a few hands.

Then with the 3 chop on the board I would have went on with a 2nd Player for hand 17.  I would have lost.  But it is evening out.  When it made the 2nd Banker, I would cut back to the Player at this point.  It was a Tie.  I would stay with the Player.  Won the first player.  Stack it really heavy for the second Player, win that one.

The I would figure I have one more wager or so left in this section.  I would go for the 3rd Player for the 1-2-3 pattern that I envisioned and it happened.  I would cool it off after this and watch and wait for another section of the shoe, no matter if chop (weak) or strong (repeating and doubles or whatever).

AND:




Re: The time to pounce on the shoe

« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2017, 08:15:11 am »

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That is correct, I have always stated that.  ANYTHING and EVERYTHING can happen, most certainly!  Chop-Chop the whole shoe, doubles the entire shoe, 50+ Bankers and 20 or so Players in a shoe, 50+ Players and 20 or so Bankers in a shoe, 30 ties in one shoe, 3 Fortune 7's back to back then a Banker then a Fortune 7 then a Banker then another 2 Fortune 7's back to back, and so.  Those are possible, rare in the sense they do not repeat themselves for quite some time, in fact extremely rare. 

Also Anything and Everything is a partial shoe of perfect rhythm like 1 Banker followed by numerous Players for 10 to 15 squares going horizontal.  Then in the same shoe it changes up, maybe not as quick by a perfect 'regression to the means' does come about by the end of the shoe.  Or 1's and 3's and then Chop-Chop and then nothing at all.  It is all possible with the aforesaid just being a handful of common situations and common occurrences and the first paragraph rare events that do happen, but rare.

With that said, 'seldom failures' I am referring to the majority of the times.  I can not quantify a percentage, I do not do or believe in testing in baccarat events on the computer.  Again, as I state plenty of times--testing is all fine for the event outcome on the computer.  But the small amount of trivial shoes and hands actually played by a gambler at a B&M casino will not reflect anything of resemblance to those stats derived from a computer test.  So therefore, I cannot state a percentage.  But I do like and have profited plenty from the following scenario and witnessed it numerous times as well:

A strong section, meaning numerous squares going horizontal which produce strong sections but all classified as a 'Section'.  Then when the turning point comes, if that turning point includes naturals or 4 card draws, 9 to 8, 8 to 7 or 7 to 6 and it bounces B to P at least 3 times, get ready to pounce on it.  So a strong section and then the turning point.  Say the end of the strong section was 7 Players and then a Banker with 9 over the Player 8 or even 7.  Then the Players with an 8 over the Bankers 7 or the Players 7 over the Bankers 6.  Then the Players 8 with a Bankers 7.  I would pounce on the next hand with a larger wager on the Player side for a double. 

Also those three alternating B's and P's can be replaced with 6 card draws where the prevailing B or P is brought up to 8 or 9 and the losing B or P is reduced to 0-1 or 2 or 3 or so. 

Out of the last 10 times I discovered this, I would have to say 8 successful pounces for me.  I have not kept stats on my wins/loses for this but now that I wrote about it, I will try. 

Good Luck, this is the proper way to play from the early 1980's at the big table to today.  Period.

[8OR9]

As an addition to reply #10 in this thread, there is a psychological and mathematical problem everyone faces in trying to develop a plan to handle profits and losses in any type of gambling situation.

For example if you have a $ 10,000 bankroll and set a 2% loss  limit ( $200 ) for a shoe or roulette session, then if you lose the $ 200 in the first baccarat shoe or 30 or 40 roulette spins, you take the loss and go home...which is pretty easy ( assuming you have the discipline to leave.....which most people do not ).

But what if you set a 2% ( $200 ) target for a profit objective......and a miracle happens and you win your first 4 or 5 bets and are ahead $190 ? 

Can you see the psychological problem? ....are you going to sit there and possibly see the $190 profit disappear if you lose the next 4 or 5 hands or spins....just so you can make an extra $10 ?

That's why a loss limit is cut and dried ( assuming you have the discipline to leave when the loss limit is hit ) and the profit objective has very damaging and difficult psychological problems to deal with.....which is why it is very hard to develop a business plan for gambling since the profit objective is subject to fear and greed which is present in every human being ( the same analysis applies to stock and futures traders.....profit objectives are difficult to get a handle on.)

In my next post, I will describe the three greatest "inventions" in gambling  and the real reasons why it is very difficult to show a profit in any gambling game.

[alrelax]

You talk very decisive and quantitate regarding the loss limit. 

A loss limit of $200.00 and then go home, will not happen the highest upper 90% percentile times, the very highest of the upper 90's so close to 100% of the time, it is not even one bit funny. 

Regarding a loss limit with a larger bank-roll/buy in.  If you are referring to a true bank roll, one that is your total gambling budget for say the year, and it is also left at home and not brought to the casino and in front of you, then possibly that is very smart.  However if it is brought to the casino and it is also your buy-in or in your pocket, that loss limit is the subject matter of the second sentence above. 

I get confused at times when people mention bank roll and loss limit.  If they are referring to bringing their bank roll and buying in with it or say bring their bank roll of $10k and saying they have a $500.00 loss limit and they continually buy in with $1k, etc. 

To me, a casino player should 100% of the times bring his loss limit as his buy-in (session/day/trip) bank roll and have no other money or funds available.  Period, done deal.