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[21 Aces]

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[Jimske]

What is your view on natural 8's and 9's, win margins, and ties?
- Natural 9's
- Natural 8's
- 7's
- Win Margins (Example: Bank just beat Player 7 to 1 and 6 to 0 the hand earlier so it's winning and not even close.)
- Ties
- Multiple Ties

A lot of players at my house see Natural 8's as a warning sign of ensuing chop or too many natural 8's and 9's as a warning of chop.  I do see chop to the other side of natural 8's frequently, but a lot of long Bank/ Player dragons start with consecutive naturals.  Long dragons tend to have that side show a lot of power in win margin.

I see multiples ties as a strong warning of uncertainty and wins that have a low win margin as a warning as well.

This is the most astute commentary i've ever seen.  You're right on the money!  Exactly how it is.  But don't forget P after gtie as our friend Alrelax has told us.

Good work!

[21 Aces]

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[AsymBacGuy]

21aces, where is located your house?

as.

[21 Aces]

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[AsymBacGuy]

Ok, but is it in America, Asia, Europe?

[AsymBacGuy]

I mean, I'll be glad to play at your tables.

as. 

[21 Aces]

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[AsymBacGuy]

Ok, you don't want me to be your customer, then.

[21 Aces]

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[AsymBacGuy]

Keep in mind that any solid house should be loaded with sharp players.

If I were in the position to own a bac room I'd prefer to get players betting every hand. No matter how stupi.d or sharp they are.

as.

[21 Aces]

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[Jimske]

Looks like my day is n9w COMPLETE!  Getting Big Al and the Dark Rider in on a discussion. . . priceless!

[alrelax]

I'll spell this out because I swear I could put a billboard in Times Square and it would not make a difference - same attention from a few players in the house I have mentioned it to as well.

A shoe starts.

1st Tie ->  Next Hand Continues Same Side as Before (Bank/ Player)

2nd Tie ->  Next Hand Continues Same Side as Before (Bank/ Player)

3rd Tie ->  Next Hand Continues Same Side as Before (Bank/ Player)

4th Tie ->  Next Hand Chops Opposite Side as Before (Bank/ Player)

5th Tie ->  Next Hand Continues Same Side as Before (Bank/ Player)

6th Tie ->  Next Hand Continues Same Side as Before (Bank/ Player)


So.... in the shoe to the current hand there have been 6 Ties - 5 have continued with the same side as before (Bank/ Player) and one has chopped in the next hand to opposite.  More hands play out and another Tie comes up.  Of course, you can look at everything else as well, but on this shoe it's a 5-1 continue vs. chop track record.  If it looks at all decent, I weigh this heavily and bet continue same side.

One can do this for Naturals on each side as well as high payout bets on each side.  Those that play mean reversion will look to have these streaks revert to balance at some point and those that tend to ride streaks will most likely play with the trend.

Might hold true and at other times, it would do the complete opposite.  In the long run it would even out or cost you money.  You might have 40 shoes that follow the way you think and another 40 that will do the complete opposite and another 20 that will do 50% follow/cut out of the next 100.  Then you might have 100 that follows exactly, then you will have 100 that don't. The same with winning or losing numbers. 

[alrelax]

I understand what you meant.  It does not matter.  You might very well catch a few, however, there will be an equal or greater amount that you will not be able to follow.

The winning decision(s) after the tie is 100% random and not based upon the previous hands prior that won or lost after tie, i.e.: sticking or cutting to the opposite side.

You might have 14 ties in a shoe.  The first 7 it continues to stick with whatever was prior.  Then you want to wager on the 8th one sticking also.  Then on that one it cuts to the opposite side.  Or you wagered the cut.  Then it stuck on the same side for another 7 times. 

There is no more advantage to making the decision what to wager on because of the tie versus, say after a single or series of bankers or players winning, etc.

The same exact way that maybe every player had lost when the previous banker won with say a 7 total count.  Then when you wager on the Banker because of that fact, the banker loses every hand thereafter when the banker won with a previous hand of 7.