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[andrebac]

A friend of mine claimed about this method:


- after a natural shows (so a 8 or a 9 with two cards) bet the side that won, once. Won or lost wait for another natural.


- MM at will, he deploy a marty of 4 terms but you can use different ones. accept the -15 loss.


- expect +10/15 units per shoe on winning ones


GL

[ADulay]

Andrebac,

Did he give an explanation as to how or why a natural 8 or natural 9 would affect the next decision?

Is this something he's observed via data mining or is there another theory at work here?

AD

[andrebac]

I must say that's not mine so I can't give a qualified answer.
IMO I can imagine that you're betting the side that's "MORE IN LUCK" at the moment.
Anyway I start checking this pattern, along my play, and sometimes it's interesting, it's giving some units with a low drawdowns. I need more shoes before giving an update...

[monaco]

hi Andrebac (from BaccaratForums? - nice to see you posting here)


I've always wondered about those claims to be able to take meaning from the cards as they fall rather than just play a simple even chance game.


You do see runs where one side's luck appears to be in for a few hands, 8's 9's etc..,
I'll maybe keep a closer eye on it for a while, though my mind tells me it shouldn't mean anything or happen with any greater regularity..


cheers

[andrebac]

Hi Monaco, it's me! Unfortunely BF is dead and there are no baccarat forums around...
I start checking this pattern and it's nice. I watch it and when the bet called is according to the mine, I bet one unit more. I keep it under investigation, lucky side mostly hold on...

[ADulay]

OK, I've seen this method mentioned many times and evidently there are a few who swear by it.

In an attempt to at least see if it has any viability to it, I am willing to go into my extensive database of LIVE decisions, at least the one database that also shows individual hand results, and extract a minimum of 100 placed bets on this theory.

This is to at least see if it holds any water at all.

What I would like from the first person to respond, is a random number from 100 to 10,000 and that will be my starting point in the data.

I will run 100 placed wagers and see how they would result, at least from this dataset.

AD

[monaco]

Thanks ADulay


1952

[ADulay]

Thanks ADulay


1952

Thanks.  1952 will be the starting line for the run.  I should be able to get most of it done on Saturday.

AD

[ADulay]

OK, hopefully you'll see that attached Excel spreadsheet subset at at the bottom of this message with the intial test run of 100 placed wagers from my dataset.

I will mention that this "test" is slightly different from the original plan as my data does NOT show natural wins but winning hands with an 8 or 9 as the total.   This, of course, is not what the author of the system had intended, but we'll have to live with it for now.

I took each winning 8 or 9 and wagered that it would repeat.  In the case of a tie as the next outcome, the bet was placed until a decision was made.  There was only one case where two ties came up which made the "decision" play two more hands down.   I believe it won.

This data is taken from the live Malta bacarrat table as they used to update the information on a hand by hand basis.

The long losing streak was a single run of 5 in a row.   A long win streak of 14 was obviously a large deviation in the short term, but it's gambling.  Deal with it.

AD

[andrebac]

Andy,
as you said it's different betting after a natural or after a winning 9 or 8 formed with 3 cards.
I tried a dozen of shoes and the longest losing run is 4. I never consider it a main system but if you track this during your usual play, you can place a couple of bets after 2 losses in a row.
You can catch few units at a low risk.

[ADulay]

There was another baccarat forum where this particular system play came up several times and was debated long and loud by several people.

No one could actually give a reason for the choice of wagers and it eventually just went away.

I don't normally monitor the natural 8/9 wins (although many Asian players do) but I may jot down some notes during future play if I have the time.

However, with most systems, if you can't find a reason for the placed wager, it's just gambling superstition.

And this one is as good as any as it has some kind of structure to it!!

AD

[andrebac]

Andy,
what I really think we should focus is on finding a BS that has a tight variance. It's certain that there are no bet selections that give you a math. advantage. Instead there are many BS with different kind of variance, the tighter are our resource. IMO

[TwoCatSam]

Thanks AD.  Good study!

[ADulay]

Just a quick update.

Ran another 1500 hands, right from the top, and the long loser is 6 (once) and three instances of 5 losses in a row.

Wins are outpacing losers 378 to 328.

I'll continue on with this dataset and try to finish another 2000 tomorrow "after my chores".

AD

[andrebac]

AD,
thanks for your work!
I also noticed that longest runs of losses happen when there is a ZZ run "running". is it true also for your experience?