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[21 Aces]

You present a statistically significant data set like one full month of all baccarat table activity at a major house (30 tables + consistently) that is conducted with a credible CPA firm counting every single buy in and cash out of every single player to play the game 24/7 and you will have a finding that is worth talking about.

IMO, there is not a house anywhere in the world that cares more than zero about what players are doing if they are playing properly, not raising red flags with gaming law, and their overall financials are staying in-line or improving, etc.  You will never get this information ever so you can save what you hear about in media articles/ mainstream views.  Let me know the next time you are in on an executive meeting with a gaming company along with their attorneys and CPA's or complete this type of research to get your 99.9%

A house could step in and confine or limit play, but table limits min/ max, and agreed upon arrangements such as private tables/ minimum buy-in tables, and so forth do just fine.

In the real world, executive managers, floor management, and dealers are looking to stay in line with sound operations and not permit activity that would get them on the bad side of gaming regulators.  For example, if a player comes in with $10,000 in $20's that will be flagged.  A lot more to this whole subject than that to the nth degree, but I play and I am so sick of this whole line of discussion.  And don't confuse this with their count/ money being off. Fairly sure that if $1.00 is unaccounted for, surveillance and management will be all over it.  Money is won/ lost in play not in unaccounted for ways.

But back to your 99.9%, as a nano/ micro level example, the house doesn't track whether 1 player loses $10,000 in a night or it was 7 so how are you going to get your numbers?  Go watch every player 24/ 7 for a month, start counting with your CPA team, take good notes, and report back.

And I will post again, this is a UNLV paper on hold percentages.  Why does it vary sharply?  Do you think UNLV is getting real numbers?

NEVADA TABLE GAMES:
HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS
ANNUAL AND MONTHLY HOLD PERCENTAGES, 1992-2018
CENTER FOR GAMING RESEARCH, FEBRUARY 2018
http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Lastly, how can any casino go bankrupt or out of business?  After all with all those losers, they should have soooooooooooooooooooooooooo much money to cover all expenses, remodeling, and awesome PR and marketing to stay viable.  The best ever and finest of everything - all the Mad Men and consultants and experts that everywhere from Madison Avenue to academia to private firms can offer.  Because all players lose!!!!!  No rocket quants, gaming companies can make a stable return if they do everything correctly and the gaming industry dynamic is favorable to them.


How could this ever happen with all the losers?

Las Vegas Mega Flops: 3 Casinos That Squandered Away Billions
Sin City is not only a Mecca for gamblers, it's a magnet for big-pocketed investors who put billions into casino complexes... and occasionally lose their shirts.
Eric Volkman (TMFVolkman)
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/02/las-vegas-mega-flops-3-casinos-that-squandered-awa.aspx


Echelon:



WYNN stock chart - looks like a straight line to me.  Just collecting from losers!!!! Simple!
https://www.investing.com/equities/wynn-resorts-ltd-chart

And double lastly, you just believe that casinos have weaponized psych warfare in their offering, marketing and PR that just draw so many suckers for most of modern history.  Or do actually think it could just be a little more complex than that?

And now I know why very few players talk about baccarat on-line. - 99.9% is 666 upside down, just for you.

[21 Aces]

This whole line of discussion is such an insult to the gaming industry and the people that offer the games.  It's an insult to players that put in work as well.  You are either blind or the only casino you ever go to is reading some hithouse article about gaming.  How can you even look any of them in the eye?  A dealer floor manager/ executive manager or someone emptying the trash who has been serving the house for not 1, 5, 10, but we're talking decades at ridiculous hours to offer the game?

It's the 21st today.  Get your hit together, run your 'exercise' for the month of April and report back.  I want full details of your brilliant findings.

[alrelax]

(1)    IMO, there is not a house anywhere in the world that cares more than zero about what players are doing if they are playing properly, not raising red flags with gaming law, and their overall financials are staying in-line or improving, etc.  You will never get this information ever so you can save what you hear about in media articles/ mainstream views.  Let me know the next time you are in on an executive meeting with a gaming company along with their attorneys and CPA's or complete this type of research to get your 99.9%

( Basically that is correct.  The highest majority and I mean the highest of all the 'I was barred because I won too much or I have to stay under the radar, etc., is all a dream and egotistic bull 'poo-poo' to the 100th million degree!  Lots of players of lots of problems with floor people and managers at the casino simply because they lose too much and then they create a security breach or a scene, etc.  Then they take to the internet to vent, so on and so forth. ) 

(If you are referring to me with the 99.9% I like to quote about people losing, I do see that each and every time I go to the casino.  Sure, they do win, but like I said, almost all with the exception of a few out of every hundred or so, stay far too long and for whatever reason(s) give it all back, then their buy-in then everything they have available to buy-in as much as possible in the mad mean chase to win once again. )

(Unless you know these people and talk to them and spend time with them, you—I and others do not know their personal play history.  However, I do know many and it is not pretty.)


(2)   A house could step in and confine or limit play, but table limits min/ max, and agreed upon arrangements such as private tables/ minimum buy-in tables, and so forth do just fine.

(at the larger places they sure do.  For years in Atlantic City, every table of bac in high limit was $100/$10K unless you had in excess of $100k on deposit cash, then you moved to $300/500 min to $25k a hand.  No exceptions.  However, the Tropicana with its last deep pocket owner came in and raided the bar to $50k max per hand.)  In Vegas on the mid strip there is a norm of $100/300/500 min's to 10k/15k/25k max.  There are negotiated other min's and max's)


(3)   In the real world, executive managers, floor management, and dealers are looking to stay in line with sound operations and not permit activity that would get them on the bad side of gaming regulators.  For example, if a player comes in with $10,000 in $20's that will be flagged.  A lot more to this whole subject than that to the nth degree, but I play and I am so sick of this whole line of discussion.  And don't confuse this with their count/ money being off. Fairly sure that if $1.00 is unaccounted for, surveillance and management will be all over it.  Money is won/ lost in play not in unaccounted for ways.

(Whatever, doesn't really matter, that is their business and their bookkeeping.  Same as me buying lunch and groceries at the supermarket and putting the $300.00 receipt in for business expenses).


(4)   But back to your 99.9%, as a nano/ micro level example, the house doesn't track whether 1 player loses $10,000 in a night or it was 7 so how are you going to get your numbers?  Go watch every player 24/ 7 for a month, start counting with your CPA team, take good notes, and report back.

(They do have to track a player but for the purposes of their CTR's and STR's purposes and that is highly enforced and regulated more than almost anything.  But not as far as their books and accounting for purposes of their revenue streams and losses, etc.)


(5)   Lastly, how can any casino go bankrupt or out of business?  After all with all those losers, they should have soooooooooooooooooooooooooo much money to cover all expenses, remodeling, and awesome PR and marketing to stay viable.  The best ever and finest of everything - all the Mad Men and consultants and experts that everywhere from Madison Avenue to academia to private firms can offer.  Because all players lose!!!!!  No rocket quants, gaming companies can make a stable return if they do everything correctly and the gaming industry dynamic is favorable to them.

(And lots of them do.  It is all contingent on their marketing and management as in all businesses, etc.  They do go out of business due to mismanagement, regulatory problems and money problems, look at Atlantic City and the Showboat, The ACH (former Hilton, Bally's, Golden Nugget, etc.), Trump Taj and Trump Plaza, etc.  Lots of reasons and theories. 

Look at the new Lucky Dragon in Vegas, thought they could copy Macau to the 'T', and did not work.

Hilton was forced out of the casino business by gaming regulators and never really allowed in in New Jersey for decades.  They were also forced out by Wall Street firms and their loans that went bad, for whatever reason. 

MGM was never really allowed into New Jersey also, because Stanly Ho's daughter and Stanley himself are 100% Asian Triad (Asian Mob) people, not one doubt about it.  My brother ran New Jersey OCB for the State Police for years and the New Jersey C.C.C. and many other law enforcement agencies had numerous cases always being linked to Stanly Ho through New York City and several of the Traid families, no big secret.  MGM was only recently allowed back in New Jersey after being force to sell its share in the Borgata a few years back.  And the only reason is because Atlantic City is hurting, Pansy Ho is still mobbed up, always has been and always will be. 

MGM want to spend in excess of 5 billion dollars in Atlantic City back forever, they were never ever allowed and were told you will not be licensed, take your money elsewhere. 

Hilton has a mobbed up person on the board of directors, I forget whom that is and they had tons of trouble over him, but they would not fire him and gave up their casino licenses a long time ago with the exception of Vegas which they eventually sold. 

There are so many reasons casinos are in or out as well as what happens to them.  The same as many other businesses.  Nothing different.   

You can Google; Pansy Ho, Stanly Ho, The Hilton, MGM Atlantic City project, etc.  You can read all about these. 

Also, that project just north of the Mirage on the west side of the Las Vegas Strip across from the SLS, former Rivera, has been an eye sore and going on for well over 10 years now.  It will most likely fail once opened the same way the Lucky Dragon did--only bigger with a bigger boom, the money just isn't there in gaming any longer, it is in most other things, but not the casino floor, too much these days and too many cut backs and change of management style as well as thousands of casinos all over the USA.  The same as, why should I go buy a new auto a few hundred miles away the way we did many years ago when I have 6 new dealerships between me and the old guy I used to deal with in the 90's??  Same.  Their location sucks, close but too far away from the real-mid strip and that is the largest reason the Mirage, The T.I., The Bellagio, C. Palace, Planet Hollywood, Paris, Venetian, The Wynn and the few others out did all the rest of them.  But things have changed. )

[21 Aces]

I posted  the following comment a few days ago in another thread...........maybe we all can  avoid the mistakes Alrelax described above if we follow the following  advice.


"When asked how someone did today in speculating in the stock market, Forex or commodities, or a casino game such as baccarat dice or roulette, the amateur ( which includes 99.9% of the people in a casino), will respond saying that he made $ 200 or lost $ 400.

The intelligent, professional, speculator or gambler will say he won 2% of bankroll or 4 % of Total bankroll or lost 2% of bankroll or lost 4 % of Total bankroll"

It is comments like this that set me off.  Pretty much nobody I play with talks about percentages unless it is on high payout bet allocation.  Whatever.

At houses in my area nobody is getting tracked unless they get into areas required by gaming law.  This excludes a substantial amount of buy-in and cash out activity.

[8OR9]

So if percentages do not matter.....let's assume you had a $ 50,000 bankroll.......would you bet $10,000 a hand in baccarat or bet $ 1,000 a hand ?

Percentages don't count right ?..............so how many posters here would bet $ 10,000 a hand or $ 1,000 a hand with a $ 50,000 bankroll ............which if you lost your bankroll, you would be sleeping under a bridge.

[21 Aces]

It is comments like this that set me off.  Pretty much nobody I play with talks about percentages unless it is on high payout bet allocation.  Whatever.

To clarify, there is a difference between decision making for oneself or in a group/ team and talk among players.  Common talk among players usually is in nominal amounts and percentages come up moreso on high payout bet talk.  For example, 'I am up $X,XXX or down $X,XXX or whatever numbers.  But if you are around other players for a long time, you already have an idea of where they are in terms of bet size/ buy-in's/ bank rolls.

(I should have been more clear on this --->>>)  Most are in some way making bet size decisions based on percentages of buy-in, bank roll, etc.  There are some players I see that ramp up or increase bet size far too aggressively.  There are many factors, but you can hit your stop on a session even if you are betting a conservative bank roll on every bet if you are striking poorly.

Back when I traded for a decent sized hedge fund, we used both percent allocation, but often nominal in terms of shares, bonds, contracts.  As long as things are grounded in a framework of risk management then ok.  We can list out the factors, but someone making 6 or 7 figures a year is going to most likely look at $10,000 differently than someone in the 5 figure range.

A good sign that a play will go wrong is when a player really increases their bet size on that hand that is taking on excessive risk.  I have already noted and posted a lot in the past about working with percentages which I do and I talk with other player about on the floor, but I don't extend it to say that players suck and those on Wall Street are rock stars because a lot on the street do suck or have an inside trading advantage.