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[alrelax]

(It is long, if you don't like to read and don't have the time, simply don't read what I write!  Stop the comments because your comments about the length of what I write at times is silly, all it shows is you have only negative things to say and you don't agree with me--so do yourself, me and everyone in your life a favor--skip my articles and go do something constructive with your time!  Before the questions come whcih are totally unrelated to my article, my thoughts and my experiences at the baccarat tables, I type super fast, I am in front of 3 computers at my desk all day today, I am partners in my business and I can do what I want between phone calls and whatever other tasks I am in engaged in.  Let's see, oh yeah, I have nothing to tell or justify, just putting it out there the same as say, 250 junk or senseless posts all added up together in length. So, no need to read it if you; A) Don't enjoy what I write, and/or B) Don't think there is something in here for your gain or knowledge expansion. So, Gizmotron, Greenguy and Toknoy skip reading it and save yourself a Advil, Rolaids or a Prilosec event!  Thanks. )
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On author 'systems' type of thought/books Vs. the 'other' way of bac playing

Anyone can come up with 'something' in baccarat as far as a 'system' and a way to supposedly make money.  They write it, they believe it, they attempt to get others to believe in a way—and they will profit from the book sales.  Period.  The authors lose nothing.  The person that bought the book will lose further money by the false, wrong, hopeful and/or not 100% wrong and not 100% correct info and data within most every system type of book or package.  But because of the greed, the desperation, the desire for the holy-grail and everything else right along with all those—the customer that buys these books play right into the arms of each of their authors. But there is more to it then coming up with the 'something' that should prevail because of the 'forthcoming' factors that lie within the game.  And that is what all these authors leave out, they themselves have no virtual clue as to what it really takes to win this game, because they are harping on a mechanical pre-scheduled and pre-conceived bet placement method that is part true and huge amounts of in-measurable fallacy, depending on what the shoe is actually producing, it may happen and it very well might not happen.  That is the problem and there is no way to differentiate as to when the 'system' will present itself, the same as anything else in baccarat.  But the problem being, the 'system' subscription will have the player foregoing most other types of wagers in the game because they are just about all in conflict with the 'system'.  Therefore, the player suffers a double whammy and losses money wagering on the 'system' when the 'system' is not hitting and as well, he losses on just about everything else presenting itself in the shoe coming at him! 

Here is what the so-called self-appointed expert author will claim and use in his redundant rebuttals on forums and his own announcements/website in general:

•    Reverse psychology aura and tones;
•    Say things such as, "You have about one year of experience and that is about all anyone needs   because baccarat is really so simple and there is nothing to really learn or experience;
•   They generally state with authoritative claims what other people do and don't do in their daily lives and their ways of life, etc.;
•   They will always throw out definitive positions on those that challenge them or say anything adverse about their system, without ever spending five minutes with the person they are hell bent on discrediting that attacked or said anything negative about the system in question;
•   All they are doing is selling their commercial venture, they will not engage in anything off-topic, personal, industry related, etc., they will always come out you with the aura of business and demean or chastise in one way or another those that do discuss other things on the forum board even if in off-topic and other spaces, etc.;
•   Their sole reason for being on the forum or space is to sell and profit.  Where were they for year before their so called discovery?  How come they never seem to put in the daily grind to improve the space/place they are using for their commercial venture?

There are certainly more, those just immediately come to mind.

The game is not a one frame-of-mind/mind frame scenario, plain and simple.  And, hence-that is where every single 'system' will fail.  If not today, tomorrow, if not tomorrow—next week, if not next week, in several weeks.  But it will fail and fail big time.  Anything can and will win for bits and pieces at baccarat.  That is what makes the claims of authors and 'self-appointed experts' kind of believable by so many players.  And that is the only reason why a 'system' might work occasionally.  I have wrote other pieces within my Blog and/or the Baccarat section about winning and losing and how the common player gets reinforced and hopeful over wins and not depressed or stopped by losses.  He puts off the inevitable for the hope and desire of the easy riches as promised and sometimes even worthlessly 'guaranteed' by the authors of these written books and systems.  In other words, many of the potential players that purchase these types of books and systems are giving the authors extreme benefit of doubts in the hope that they are truthful, justified and real.  But the end results are always the same, sad-depressing-jilted-lost their money (not only on the product itself but tons more on buy-ins and bankrolls that were swept away by the casinos), etc. 

But there is nothing, nothing that can definitively win—every shoe or even nearly every shoe, say northwards of 50% anyways for sake of this article.  Therefore, 'systems', don't matter—the real; 'pot-of-gold' at the casino in baccarat is within each player's own frame-of-mind.  His experiences and his ability to be able to recognize the presentments from each shoe. 

For example, 1's, 2's and 3's—3 P's then 3 B's then 3 P's then another 3 B's, or series of doubles, or say 9 or 10 chop-chop, or 6 bankers followed by 6 players, etc., etc.  And so much of gambling has turned on the psych aspect the players have inundated themselves with by their immersing themselves into other's so-called works of discovery.  They are in so many words, brain washed.  They let themselves be brain trained in what to supposedly recognize for the placement of their wagers.  Unlike fixing an engine or repairing an appliance, there is no instruction sheet and set of rules that can dictate how and when to wager successfully at baccarat.  Would be great, but does not exist.  For the simple factor that, the shoe that you just made money on will not be repeated with enough consistency to mold it into such a 'system' for bet placement protocol.  And for the additional fact that there are countless other shoe presentments that will happen in similarity to the 'system' you were told to wager and as well, in complete contrary results that will also happen and every other thing in-between those two as well.  So if you did manage to pull off a win, you will give it back with the continual attempts yet to come.   

You know—on the internet there are basically two types of people.  Real and fake.  Not quite the same in person where there are both of those as well every phase of each one as well.  So we tend to either merge, distant ourselves or just watch and wait before becoming friendly—as we interpret the other people in person.  We do base our ultimate decision to merge or distant ourselves from others, based upon our visions, frame-of-minds, etc.  Justified or not, right or wrong, stepping on our own tail or not, etc., etc.  Here, let me further explain myself.  2 people playing yesterday morning, Sunday.  Both females.    One, stares at the board.  Never says anything.  No talk and no discussion.  Complete involvement and ingrained, plain and simple.  She started the night before, Saturday that was.  She played all night.  I played from about 7 PM or so until 2 AM.  This one lady played from that time and was present when I came down in the AM right around 10.  Everyone else was gone, she was still there in the same clothes—never left.  So, I sat down and another lady came over that I have not seen in some time.  She follows protocols according to what won or lost.  Never rides a streak—just about always wagers for the 'cut' to prevail.  Never rides a chop-chop, always goes for the repeat or the side that just won, but not a repeated win like I said-won't play out a streak/run.  If her wins come, she is so happy and excited with herself, ever so obvious.  She will win 8 to 12 times within her 'system' of following or cutting based upon what just was produced, etc.  The she will bat terrible for numerous hands until she wins a couple but maintains losing far exceeding her wins.  She will double and triple and even quadruple up with loses and double up with wins.   

The other one, the second one.  She is a different tune.  Watches, waits, bets, etc.  Not a set anything.  Might be catching a run-might be riding a chop-chop, etc.  But, her attack of the game is the attempt to wager what the shoe is clearly producing, no matter what that might be.  Easier said than actually done.  But, unlike the other lady to my other side side—that is clearly applying a set bet to the next hand or whenever she does bet, she is attempting to change the shoe and have it conform to the system she is trying to follow.  I can 100% see this with certainty.  The power and the drive of the one following the 'system' is huge.  God bless her!  But the short bursts she gets, it is the exact same as the 'hot drunk female, '11' on a '10' scale" at the club that grabs your crotch and leads you to having a 4 minute session in the car outside that you walked away and swore to that female you just orgasmed with in record time—that it was the best you ever experienced.  Then she opened the door of the car and vomited before leaving without saying as much as good bye.  Versus, your almost '6' on that female '10' scale that you are either married to or your girlfriend of many years.

When the shoe turned to 4P's—4B's—4P's—4B's and then ran with a streak of 11 repeating bankers, followed by a series of 5 doubles---the lady to the right of me—the 'systems' one, lost all her quick win and about 3 additional buy ins.  While myself and the other one, had red marks on our hands from high fiving, stacks of chips, a spilled beverage and just in our own little world riding the presentments of the show.  Nothing exotic, no second guessing, just following.  Going any which way, a literal follow.  We were leaving out words such as, "should", "supposed to" and have to wager "so and so because of such and such", etc.  But one thing for sure—as long as it is not 1's and 2's and 3's that are all jumbled up together—we are winning far more than we are losing.  And that to me is, successful playing!

Without getting long winded and theory heavy—baccarat shoes produce only three things.  First, repeats, 2nd chops/cuts.  And 3rd, a mixture of both #1 and #2's.  To me, the chance of a system hitting and winning is there—but far less than following what the presentments are from the shoe.  Our minds, our experiences, our ego's, our frame-of-minds—will not allow us to believe in combinations of things to work when any one situation is presenting itself.  For, if we did—then we really don't believe in whatever it was that we were believing in the first place to happen.  That is why I have repeatedly said, the highest majority of players attack a baccarat shoe from 1 or 2 or maybe 3 directions of 'systems'.  While only a few subscribe to attacking it with all 8 possible directions instead of the 1, 2 or 3.  But it is very possible and the most trivialize amount of players actual do believe in all directions of attack.   

As far as someone saying, "you don't believe in systems" and "you don't believe anyone can win in baccarat except for you, yourself".  Totally not true!  I see players win all the time, just about every single session I sit down to play in fact!  I see players win virtually every time I sit down to play.  Holding their winnings and walking away with them or some of them---is a total different story and fact.  But each and every time they give it all back and they also continually buy in repeatedly if they have access to additional funds.  And if they win once again, they almost every time wind up giving it all back again.  They only stop when they get grinded down and their access to funds is exhausted.  It doesn't even surprised me any longer, long past that stage a while back. 

They simply to not understand the risk of ruin and variation for whatever it is worth.  Plain and simple.  They cannot control themselves with their emotions as well as their desperate desires to continually win.  They do not set anything reasonable as their playing/exposure time tables and schedules.  Everything is played until exhausted or they bankrupt the casino, period---whichever comes first.  Nothing in between, nothing for tomorrow and no such thing as I am taking this or that and I will divide up and re-conquer later.  As a whole, I am right on the money with this about 99% of the times, if not even higher. 

And there is nothing but time playing the game to properly instill the many many facets of unknown reality the game dishes out, each session in a unique and different way to the same ending.  But because of the human psych and our fixations on 'something for nothing', or 'I am smarter than the other guy', or 'hey this guy actually did really discover something so simple that everyone else missed' mentality, there is a mean and vicious cycle in almost every B&M's baccarat player's adventures.  One cannot learn that proverbial secret holy-grail guarantee beating of the casino every time or even on a scheduled guaranteed majority of the times, by purchasing a book or a system for a bit of money.  Simply, it just does not exist.  To be a successful and somewhat profitable baccarat player, you have to graduate from a long and winding road, known as-'the school of proverbial hard knocks'.  Thanks, know before you go as they say.  Alrelax.

AFTERTHOUGHTS: 

The game is so many things, buy-in, money management, money structuring, emotions, each player's psych, the ability to have and go by a 1/3rd type of system constantly dividing up wins—playing extra chips and locking up money (reserve), etc.  There are other things as I have continually mentioned in other articles.  Which the largest ones that are positive to me are, camaraderie, play time, my previous plateaus and probably the most important—number one, my frame-of-mind—my ability to clearly see and my consciousness of the shoe presentments coming out.  If you do not have those or the majority of those you will wind up like the players I see.  Stack it up, win and win and then go for broke, each and every time—their minds out the windows and they give it back, all back, every time.  Every single time.  If you have no consciousness of what can happen, if you have no plan, if you have no schedule, if you have no system to remain at your plateau and stop chasing a fallacy and a fairy-tale, if you have no vision, you will fail and you will do one of two things in relation to this at the baccarat table.  #1) Lose all your buy-ins and your continued buy-ins.  #2) Lose all you win money along with #1, each and every time.

Once you can honestly, figuratively and relativity do all that—you can make money with this game, in leaps and bounds.  If, IMO—you are seeking and will set forth to capture a certain income level each and every day/session, etc., when you play—you are setting yourself up to fail and nothing but.  Sorry and I know a few will have a field day with that, but that statement is 100% true and the brutal honesty.  If you back up and look and really look at the players and what they actually do, buy-in—hold—cash out and remove from the casino and their bank rolls/buy-ins as well, you would wholeheartedly agree with me.  The largest thing you can do to hurt yourself with knowledge/insight/a bit of advantage in anything (not just gambling) is lack of knowledge and the ignorance as to what can happen.  You don't have to know what will happen and when--but you have to know what can happen.

However, if you are willing to ride waves, lose some—win some, not set limits or quotas, not rely on the game for the proverbial 'ez living-without really working' and think you can read a $20.00 book or purchase a few hundred dollar system, study it and have the mentality and the knowledge and skill to make an 'ez living' you are dead wrong.  Ask some members on here, ask Ted0009, ask Leungyeh, ask some others, I am NOT ousting them---they publically admitted what they have repeatedly done in the past.  I know people in the 'real world' that have lost their businesses, homes and families over gambling.  Sure they won for a bit, but it wasn't even the game or drugs or women.  It was their inability to hold money, to do a 1/3rd system, to acknowledge what can and will happen, their removal from reality and inserting themselves into fallacy and fantasy world, etc.   Finding yourself in a very cool—unique—'gold lined' opportunity that will throw itself at you, time-after-time-after time, is hard to resist.  That is why people lose everything they have over gambling.  Same as women, drugs, and other things. 

Am I against a "SYSTEM"?  NO!  I am not.  BUT and here is the BUT and IMO (advise from the legal department here I have to say that once in a while), and because of my experience and tens of thousands of hours sitting and  playing at baccarat tables—a 'system' cannot prevail for you to profit all the time.  If it did, it would not be a 'system'.  A 'system' has to have something to work against, at least the way I see it.  Think about it.  It has to have a counter-reactive side or it cannot have the positive side that allows you to win.  Simple, at least in my book it is.    So, a 'system' will work sometimes and those that use 'systems' will absolutely kill their chances when they could have literally made tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars within a shoe or two.  I saw this last weekend, plain and simple, a 'systems' player will forgo the easiest and the best presentments within almost every shoe in order to win a few here and there while trying to constantly recoup and stay alive and maybe, just maybe get ahead 3 or 5 units and then stop, which they almost never ever do anyway.  Maybe you guys do on the board here in your living rooms while planning, but you do not do 99.9% (or thereabouts) in the B&M casinos. 

For those of you that have multiple 'systems'—you are only further hurting yourself because each one is wrestling against the other—period.  That is the reason the casino will show you, the score, allow yourself to write down anything and everything you desire, give you paper, pens, scorecards and spend tens of thousands of dollars on score boards!  There is no other reason, none.  It makes them money.  Be careful what you plot-plan-schedule and systemically arrange because of your scoring in baccarat.  It can play with your mind in such ways that, it turns the best player and the best baccarat minds into 'mushy nothings'!  I don't just say it because it sounds good, I have seen it and witnessed it so many times.  That is why any legitimate, licensed and permitted casino in the USA (probably anywhere) has no objections at any player using any kind of 'system' and scoring regime at their casino.  The reason being—'systems', mechanical pre-conceived scheduled bet placement methods, do not work—cannot work and will never hurt the casino past a most trivial and small section of a shoe or shoes, without the chance to repeat itself again and again.  If it did repeat itself and benefited the player, it was by sheer coincidence on a non-sustaining pattern.  You win with one 'system' 3 times in a row, it is the same as picking anything else, such as wagering on the 'cut' after a tie and that wins for you 3 times in a row.  The next round of doing the same with the 'system' or the picking of the 'cut wager' after a tie, you might lose for the following 6 times.  Then you go to your recoup stage and you are behind and you are then going to rely on your 'system' to recoup the lost money, while  you dig yourself into a negative hole or best case scenario--you get even and you missed terrific and wonderful shoe presentments that everyone else was winning hand after hand after hand, LOL.  That is why I preach and talk until I am blue in the face about the 'directions'.  Stop the 1 or 2 or 3 direction approach to baccarat.  You have to have the 8 direction approach to be able to profit at this game.  It is the only way.

What is dangerous to a casino, is a player that recognizes the above and is conscious of that.  Truly and clearly conscious of it.  A player that allows himself to be removed from the emotions, the feelings, the annoyances, the negativity, the scheduling of wagers, the risk of ruin and the ability to apply betting directions from the 8 possible ways instead of the 1 or 2 or 3 directions usually applied by the highest of the highest percentage of players in all B&M casinos. 

Those are my thoughts, ALRELAX.

[esoito]

A very thoughtful and informative post. 

I think the forum is very fortunate to have an experienced player such as you, who is  prepared to share thoughts, ideas and experiences.

You're very much in tune with the purpose of this forum -- bet selection and its several associated factors.

Keep 'em coming!