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[21 Aces]

Found it:

This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits


Still don't get it.

Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +1
Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +2
Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +3
For a Total of +3 

OR....

Bet 1 Unit and lose = -1 Total
Then bet 1 Unit and win all three times = +3
Adding together = +3 -1 = +2 Total

or Bet 1 Unit and lose = -2 Total
Then bet 1 Unit and 1 Unit and 2 Units and win all three times = +4
Adding together = +4 -2 = +2 Total


Let's start with that.  Is this correct or not?  A player is on a major losing streak and they will counter back with 3 straight wins? Thanks.

[soxfan]

Cats are makin this waaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy too difficult. You simply need to capture the back to back win at any stage to capture profit and reset progression to first bet, hey hey.

[21 Aces]

Cats are makin this waaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyy too difficult. You simply need to capture the back to back win at any stage to capture profit and reset progression to first bet, hey hey.

-53 units + 20 units + 27 units = -6 units

A player is on a major losing streak and they will counter back with 2 straight wins that are the largest bets so far.

[soxfan]

-53 units + 20 units + 27 units = -6 units

Nope, you gotta parlay the 20 unit, hey hey.

[Babu]

-53 units + 20 units + 27 units = -6 units

A player is on a major losing streak and they will counter back with 2 straight wins that are the largest bets so far.

Given the scenario you mention, it means you failed to parlay the previous units.  I'm sure you understood that because you got the -53.   So now you are trying to parlay 20.   First bet, you win.  Now you will parlay and bet 40.  If you win that, you will have 80-your original 20=60 gain.  60-53= 7 units.

[soxfan]

Given the scenario you mention, it means you failed to parlay the previous units.  I'm sure you understood that because you got the -53.   So now you are trying to parlay 20.   First bet, you win.  Now you will parlay and bet 40.  If you win that, you will have 80-your original 20=60 gain.  60-53= 7 units.

That is exactly correct, hey hey.

[21 Aces]

It has been presented as a negative progression with two consecutive wins to exit out.  Someone with time, please post a full example with losses all of the way until the end.  Thanks.

[Babu]

It has been presented as a negative progression with two consecutive wins to exit out.  Someone with time, please post a full example with losses all of the way until the end.  Thanks.

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits

1. L               1
2. W
3. parlay L     1
4. L               1
5. L               1
6. W
7. parlay L     2
8. L               3
9. W
10. parlay L   4
11. W
12 parlay L    6
13. W
14. parlay L   8
15. L             11
16. L             15
17. W
18. parlay L   20
19. W
20. parlay L   27

[AsymBacGuy]

The most advisable method to ensure a minor due loss in a constant EV- game is flat betting.
Here, sure as hell, itlr we'll lose just 1.25% or something like that of our money.
We'll win just on positive events overcoming the negative ones but we'll lose less whenever long streaks of negative situations arise. 

But every player will find himself to raise his standard bet, even in positive or negative situations.
Positive or negative situations will mix in this long process so there's no point to choose a positive or negative progression as everyone of them will lose anyway.
Of course and as Alrelax correctly keep stating, stubbornly adopting a negative progression style will deplete the bankroll more rapidly than what a positive progression could do.   

So we can only rely on the PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS concept.
That's the probability to get a profit after a given amount of played/observed hands.

Say we gather a team from this site members here and we put each $1000 to play and say we are 10 members. We got a $10.000 bankroll. By a total asym dictatorial move  I'm the only one to choose the wagers to bet.
We'll only bet toward P singles and P doubles by a 1-2 simple progression. Whenever a 3+ P streak will come out we'll wait three fictional winnings to bet again.

We also know that on average and per every shoe the amount of 3+ P streaks is four. So out of 35 or so P hands, 3+ streaks are coming out by a less than 1/10 ratio.

If we wait three fictional winnings on P singles and/or P doubles we know we'll win whenever clusters of 4 or more of such patterns will come along and we'll lose anytime a perfect pattern of three P singles/doubles is interpoled by two 3+ P streaks.

The probability to get all consecutive losing sequences PER EVERY SHOE is quite low but it could happen.
The probability to get TWO shoes in a row getting no more than three winning sequences is very very low.

The probability to get THREE or more shoes in a row not getting at least one win is not existent.

Notice that shoes not containing at least three P singles/doubles patterns, an unlikely scenario though, won't produce any loss as we're simply not getting our betting trigger.

So if we're playing a 1-2,  4-8, 16-32 and etc progression per every single/double P trigger encountered, sooner or later we'll be broke. Because sooner or later we'll get a shoe or most unlikely we'll cross a couple of consecutive shoes not containing any 4+ single/double P pattern.

But we can bet our behind that three shoes in a row will form at least one 4+ S/D P pattern with no one 3 inferior pattern.

But that's not the point.

Patterns of S/D P patterns higher than three will surely come out by clusters as they are more likely to form than the exact three counterpart.

Thus now we are really reducing the variance impact: no bet on winning sequences inferior to 3s, no bet on 3s sequences whether they came out by clusters of two or more.

In a word we might get statistically advantaged. 

But there is one more insight about the strict mathematical issue: the more we are waiting for a 1-2, 4-8, etc progression fictionally failing on such patterns, the higher will be our probability of success.
We do not want to get every pattern be winning, we do want that every selected pattern will be winning itlr.

If we put in action a multilayered progression on such hyperselected spots we know not to get a sure winning but a very very very very high probability to succeed.

Now a final question: knowing our $10k bankroll, what should be our standard bet?

as.   






   

 



     



 
 
   





 

[21 Aces]

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits

1. L               1
2. W
3. parlay L     1
4. L               1
5. L               1
6. W
7. parlay L     2
8. L               3
9. W
10. parlay L   4
11. W
12 parlay L    6
13. W
14. parlay L   8
15. L             11
16. L             15
17. W
18. parlay L   20
19. W
20. parlay L   27

Thanks for posting this and thanks for sharing soxfan.  If I put in some work instead of moving along my destination to nowhere, I would have understood this already.

[james]

soxfan,
This is an excellent progression with the right bet selection. If the parlay is not complete, do you continue in the next shoe?

[soxfan]

soxfan,
This is an excellent progression with the right bet selection. If the parlay is not complete, do you continue in the next shoe?

I will continue an unresolved parlay from one shoe to the next. But I don't continue from one session to another, hey hey.

[21 Aces]

1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
Hand.   Result   Units Bet   Net Unit Position (+/-)
1.         L               1           -1
2.         W (How much bet here?)
3.         parlay L     1
4.         L               1
5.         L               1
6.         W (How much bet here?)
7.         parlay L     2
8.         L               3
9.         W (How much bet here?)
10.       parlay L   4
11.       W (How much bet here?)
12.       parlay L    6
13.       W (How much bet here?)
14.       parlay L   8
15.       L             11
16.       L             15
17.       W (How much bet here?)
18.       parlay L   20
19.       W (How much bet here?)
20.       parlay L   27


Thanks