You must realize, that a designing a Scope of Result, is to contain actions, that you solely initiate and control, not the shoe. The shoe produces presentments, the average bac player is attempting to have the shoe conform to his desires, rather than, the player conforming to the shoe?s presentments.
The design goal is to get to the point of comfort, confidence and belief. One that does not threaten your wagering and force you to reduce ideal or beneficial wagers that would be positive for you and move you from that idle comfort zone, to that horrible tilt. How does the above relate to process?
Moving to affect the person and how it does that. I call then the 6 R?s:
Recognition
Realization
Reaction
Results
Reductions
Raises
The movement requires transporting yourself from the one person MYSELF frame-of-mind, to an outsider, onlooker of sorts.
Do you really understand the negative effects on movement? Too often everyone settles for the armchair quarterbacking information as our only information collected during the presentments. But that is the underlying problems in my opinion.
There are so many input processes that are active, and we generally limit ourselves and cut the picture of winning down. Cut it down quite a bit in the name of safety and money management control.
You will not understand how to design what will help you, unless you really know what the problem is. The negative effects, the positive effects and how each one of them will hurt you or help you, rather than the complete belief into something that will only grind you down or keep you from winning, which is a schedule of wager according to a very small win stop and loss stop agenda which is the main topic and subject these days on the websites and forums. It is a great prelude to the many fallacies that the player will fall to eventually.
If XYZ is moving/presenting, then:
If ABC is moving/presenting, then:
Fallacy, the path to failure or non-winning in most all cases. You must realize that you are not changing, you are adapting with foresight and realization as it happens. And that is not easy and precisely why so many will never grasp the beauty of the game of Baccarat.
When you enhance something, falsely or accurately, the more controlled the present situation will be. And when it becomes controlled, you are destined for the realization of what that shoe will present, nothing will change that.
Reduction. Continue? Complete. Enough? Neutral. Sufficient?
You drown yourself in the concentration of not knowing. Stop. Correct yourself and learn.
Quote from: alrelax on March 18, 2019, 02:07:20 PM
You must realize, that a designing a Scope of Result, is to contain actions, that you solely initiate and control, not the shoe. The shoe produces presentments, the average bac player is attempting to have the shoe conform to his desires, rather than, the player conforming to the shoe?s presentments.
You keep on harping on this ave bac player wants to change the shoe stuff. I disagree. We don't have any empirical knowledge of average bac player but my guess from experience is that ave player is betting on the past to continue or, as you pointed out many times, bet the run to stop (cut) precisely because of known averages.
Speaking more practically.
Say the actual shoe is:
B
PP
BB
PPP
B
P
B
P
BBBB
PPP
Now what are we betting?
Maybe B as in the past we got a PPP streak or do we try to get a longer P streak?
Say next outcome is B then the shoe is:
B
PP
BB
PPP
B
P
B
P
BBBB
PPP
B
Now are we betting to get another B streak or to get a single B therefore wagering P?
I already know the answer.
The average bac player will bet B, period.
Needless to say, next outcome (ignoring ties) will be B 50.68% of the times and P the remaning 49.32%.
Average bac player has lost 1.06% of his money when betting B and the very few players who chose P lost 1.24% of their money.
I mean, could exist some additional factors helping us to get a possible edge on this bet?
as.
Quote from: Jimske on March 18, 2019, 05:46:10 PM
You keep on harping on this ave bac player wants to change the shoe stuff. I disagree. We don't have any empirical knowledge of average bac player but my guess from experience is that ave player is betting on the past to continue or, as you pointed out many times, bet the run to stop (cut) precisely because of known averages.
You are correct in your own views. However, I know many of the ones I do regularly play with at 3 local casinos for the past 5 years here in the Midwest. Prior to here, I knew countless players for years in Atlantic City as well as Vegas. Not just limited to casino friends, per se. We associated outside of the casino as well and we talked about and discussed in depth the gaming we each practiced.
I do understand many players coming and exiting a casino with no discussion or association with other players outside of the casino. And with that aspect you are correct.
As well, the 25 to 50 people I play with currently, or previous 100 people I knew and associated with prior to the Midwest are a drop in a bucket compared to many.
On the other hand I have read a tad bit about surveys and how statistical numbers come about with referencing other people and opinions, etc. The number are not large.
Am I wrong in my observations, discussions and the information I pull from those, in your eyes I might very well be and even if I am not, that information would not apply to you or others that are closed minded and focused on another way of playing. All in my opinion and completely irrelevant to your way of play I am sure.
"You will not understand how to design what will help you, unless you really know what the problem is. The negative effects, the positive effects and how each one of them will hurt you or help you, rather than the complete belief into something that will only grind you down or keep you from winning, which is a schedule of wager according to a very small win stop and loss stop agenda which is the main topic and subject these days on the websites and forums. It is a great prelude to the many fallacies that the player will fall to eventually."
To gather up together to degrade and humiliate is their way of releasing their misbeliefs of the game and obvious frustration and large losses.
It has been said, "You believe you are the only one that wins", etc. etc., etc. and so on......................
It has been said, " You fail to see the high rollers win all the time and in large amounts", etc., etc., etc., and so on................
It has been said, "You live in a world of Fallacy", etc., etc., etc., and so on...............................
Many more, how the internet forum members know this is beyond me, kind of like a police officer on the way to a call and having visions of whom is guilty and whom is innocent based upon his own visions without witnessing anything, no??? But not just visions, conclusions and believe by himself as to those conclusions reached without a bit of real evidence or eye-witnessing. But maybe I am wrong as usual? Possible, huh?
Funny to me, how some of the largest and most redundant chastisers and belittling daily drama queens portraying themselves as the highly successful self admitted baccarat player, sticking to their short one-liners with next to no real input and never a picture or any other evidence that they even play the game more than once in a while or strictly for a few dollars on-line, or even proof that they are anything more than a person that possesses huge amounts of jealousy and frustration.
They are on other forums, pouring out about detailed and specific ways to win, LOL! ROMAFL! Unfortunately, there is no scheduled mechanical wagering plan that can, 'BEAT THE CASINO' each and every time or even the majority of times with predetermined plays that the shoe must match in order for the person to win.
The fallacy of a 40 or a 50 unit bank roll, that will allow a player a consistent 3 to 5 unit win with a 5 to 8 unit stop loss will be disastrous and a certain overall financial downfall for the innocent that gets sucked in the insane forum talk. IMO and seriously that of numerous serious players, that kind of fallacy talk is the same as an addicted crack or heroin addict claiming that the drug is good for people and calms your nerves.
You know, I have had emails to my published email address explaining to me how individuals have followed numerous published wagering systems such as those following the last or the next to last and catching all the streaks and all the chops, and those kinds of fallacies with stop wins and stop losses, etc. And I read how these people lost $10,000.00, $20,000.00, $50,000.00 on those consistent wagering explanations how to beat baccarat and all that. Yeah, it's the internet full of rubbish and full of f**cking stuff! But these people are hurting as they believed it and lost their life savings, lost their mortgages, lost their cars, lost their families, etc., etc., all over believing such rubbish.
At least, I post from my heart, from my experience, and most other things so few do or can do even if they wanted to. I post details, attempt to explain, try to post pictures when i can take them and more. Sometimes I do not have all the answers because they are intangible or people on here want a set method or a scheduled plan of definitive wagering that will prevail the majority of the time or all the time. Sorry, it does not exist, never did and never will. I know I have done well gambling and i am able to take nice trips and buy my kids some great stuff, all with winnings of baccarat. Like the trip to California and Vegas a few weeks ago, some pictures were posted as well. That trip was well over $15,000.00 and all paid from the winnings of baccarat over the course of 2 weeks playing 4 sessions that only $2,000.00 was at risk. So, say what you want, chastise and humiliate until your frustrations are relieved. I am sorry many think the way they do.
I explain in detail the numerous facets that a player has to realize his strengths and his weaknesses, he has to have a rock solid money management method, possibly use 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rds, use side parlays, have recognition and strict 100% adherence to plateaus and levels, as well as many other things that will allow a player to gain large profits once in awhile rather than attempting to break even or continually recouping losses.
But in so many cases-IMO, 98 + out of every 100 players will fail to adhere to anything that he can actually use to profit with at bac, especially when the wins come because of his beliefs and how he allows his subconsciousness to control himself and revert to the countless fallacies that will overwhelm him and most others playing the game of baccarat.
Quote from: alrelax on March 19, 2019, 01:12:16 AM
"
Unfortunately, there is no scheduled mechanical wagering plan that can, 'BEAT THE CASINO' each and every time or even the majority of times with predetermined plays that the shoe must match in order for the person to win.
I'm working hard to show up that this mechanical wagering exists.
Nevertheless, today I played like a sh.it, forgetting to follow your principles and after being ahead for long, I quitted as loser.
The classical proof that even playing with an advantage one can easily miss the target to aim for.
Not ashamed to say this.
I'm an idi.ot.
as.
It happens to all of us. Every single one of us. every single one, and those that say they never do, have never ever played in a live B&M casino, period.
Last year I posted I got up over $20,000.00 easily in a couple of sessions within one week, and in one night I gave $14,000.00 back if I remember cause I went on tilt. I got overconfident and I chased even larger wins it happens no matter how long or how short you play. I failed to follow the exact principles I adhered to in the winning of it as well! Which is my definitive proof as to my money management method.
And that's what I try to stress and repetitively talk about. I usually quit a winner rather than a loser when I do win.
I have won more money and been able to keep more money with my 1/3 MM Method than anything else contributing to winning additional money and keeping it once I won and I stand by that 100% ....!
Played with 3 others last weekend. Table was full over 12 people. But 3 of us kind of together, not 100% but mostly together on numerous wagers. One guy likes the second line wagers along with the third one and he believes in the cut to the opposite side after the 4th one, if it made a 4th. He won $25,000.00 + on a $1,000.00 buy in after losing the first $900.00 he bought in with. Then he gave it all back in the following shoe.
Another guy won almost $10,000.00 on a $1,500.00 buy in and he gave back $5,000.00 of the win and he walked. I won $6,500.00 and gave back $2.400.00 of that and walked. I had an $800.00 buy in.
The first guy was large wagering on every second line which gave him most of the wins and he was really aggressive on the third repeat, which won numerous times but also cut numerous times. He just stuck with the unknown and the not happening too much is eventually what got him. He also repeatedly attempt the same thing almost all the time.
Point is, things change at that table and those that say they do not, are 100% wrong. Change means, the way a player sees the game with his greed, desire and over confidence. As well, the way a player controls himself, remembers and is able to or unable to stay 100% fully conscious of everything he knows, says, believes and subscribes to. Extremely difficult. IMO.
And here we thought you always won! Just kiddin'.
Quitting while ahead is always best if only for maintaining confidence but whose to say? Maybe next time in a losing session will have the same cumulative outcome. Quitting while ahead another gamblers fallacy because it assumes we'll be ahead more than not and that ahead amount will be greater than any losses incurred. What to do?
IMO and the way I do is to keep my bet spreads and unit sizes the same. So I kind of know what my high limit is in a shoe. Win or lose! If I get close to win I will generally drop my bet a bit and if lose next 2 of 3 just quit. If I happen to win I will go back to original again but anecdotally most times there is a high limit and a time to say enough. OTH I also know what my loss limits tend to be and I know what I can recover from so I will get to a point and accept the loss and quit. This may be similar to Al's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 just a different mechanism. We need mechanisms.
But then again, I'm a grind player. I could win 10 IAR and not make nearly what a loose gambler will make in that run. Does it bother me? Yup. LMAO.
J
Quote from: Jimske on March 20, 2019, 04:42:29 PM
And here we thought you always won! Just kiddin'. (if you are directing that to me, I have stated some losses before, including one recently of $14,000.00 within just a few shoes, straight losses, everything contrary to producing anything, others would have walked away without a doubt, on tilt, with all of my experience and wisdom and knowledge--did not mean one thing and I was classically on tilt, that is why I can detail it all out--been there, done that, many time. If you are referring to AsymB's loss, sorry, your post was underneath my response to him.)
Quitting while ahead is always best if only for maintaining confidence but whose to say? (That works at times and other times a player might regret it and it only adds fuel to the next session with pent up frustration as to losing a potential win, at least the way I look at it. I do feel more fulfilled and complete, if when I start to lose a win and stop, if I at least tried to continue, past a few hands. Things do turn around frequently and it takes more than a few hands if one is playing LOOSE as you say, meaning a non grind of a few units win or loss. Bottom line for me is, I would never realize the larger wins if I stop while winning. That is why my 1/3rd works with many purposes fro myself and many of my friends that really do use it.)
Maybe next time in a losing session will have the same cumulative outcome. Quitting while ahead another gamblers fallacy because it assumes we'll be ahead more than not and that ahead amount will be greater than any losses incurred. What to do? (I can only guess that is the true $64,000.00 question as the old saying goes. But for myself if I was up $3,000.00 with a $750.00 to $1,500.00 buy in, my 1/3rd with strict adherence to it, will allow me to stay or walk with complete satisfied feelings. Not that cash out and get half way out to the car and turn around and march right back feeling or that lose everything and say I am leaving and leave and then march back, grab another $1,000.00 or two from the ATM and right back for the war that would normally blow up in my face, been there and done all that with every type of buy in from $500.00 to $50,000.00 in many properties before. I learned. So, say I had that $3,000.00 win. $1,000 back to my stack in front of me. $1,000 in my left pocket, never to be touched. $1,000 in my right pocket for reserve at my discretion. Continue playing. If lose the $4,000 i now had in front of me, i know i would walk with the $2,000 in each pocket I put away. No tilt, no further buy in. Done. If I continued to win, the next 1/3rd would be to put the $750 to $1,500 away from my original buy in and then continue playing adding another 1/3rd to my stack in front of me and another 1/3rd divided up between each pocket. It works and it works great. I remove all my feeling of, I could have won more or I should have stayed, etc.)
IMO and the way I do is to keep my bet spreads and unit sizes the same. So I kind of know what my high limit is in a shoe. Win or lose! If I get close to win I will generally drop my bet a bit and if lose next 2 of 3 just quit. If I happen to win I will go back to original again but anecdotally most times there is a high limit and a time to say enough. OTH I also know what my loss limits tend to be and I know what I can recover from so I will get to a point and accept the loss and quit. This may be similar to Al's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 just a different mechanism. We need mechanisms.
But then again, I'm a grind player. I could win 10 IAR and not make nearly what a loose gambler will make in that run. Does it bother me? Yup. LMAO.
J
Regarding my 1/3rd there is more on it within my other threads on the board. I do vary the times and amounts I split up. I might do it after numerous winning hands and I might do it after 1 or 2 hands. Depending on the sizes of the bets and the ease or difficulty it comes or does not. I do it more frequently when i first sit down. I want my buy in covered and back ASAP, if I can win 3 or 4 hands pretty quick, especially with a parlay or two, I am covered and will have a pretty good session 8 out of 10 times. But the other key factor I use, is always staying at my same plateau and levels when the win streak is over or the super strong session with that 8 or 10 or 12 IAR stops, which it always will. That is countless peoples downfall as I tried to explain.
If you cannot process and hold anything else at the table you read, learn, agree with or think can help you, print out and remember the following while you are playing. Look at it, keep it in your pocket with your cash. Take it out and re-read it 20 or 30 times between hands while everyone is pointing to the scoreboard, fiddling around and the dealers are waiting for everyone to say go ahead.
Moving to affect the person and how it does that. :
Recognition
Realization
Reaction
Results
Reductions
Raises
You have to Recognize
You have Realize
You have to React <<<<<And this is the point of make or break, Be CONSCIOUS OF IT!
You have to have Results
You then base your Reductions on those 4 things
You then base your Raises on those 4 things
PERIOD.
Very interesting thoughts from Al and Jim in a way or another.
I'll print this thread for good measure.
What happened to me is that I won too many bets deviating from my very selected betting plan and I know very well that there's no way to be right multiple times wagering many bets without having to expect multiple losses.
The numerous Margaritas I've drunk didn't help either.
Fortunately I wasn't mentoring anyone and probably this is the reason why I played so bad.
I hope this lesson will help me and many other reading the forum.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 21, 2019, 01:50:26 PM
What happened to me is that I won too many bets deviating from my very selected betting plan and I know very well that there's no way to be right multiple times wagering many bets without having to expect multiple losses. (I wrote this almost simultaneously with your response here, just posted it as you were answering what I just quoted, the same thing, no?) (Which was: 3) There is a time and place to fall in love with the game that will help you win, IMO. And that is when you are on a senseless win streak, keep doing what you are doing, ride it and do not over figure it out and compare what won against your rationalized thought or knowledge.) Contained in a new thread I started with 6 things listed out.
The numerous Margaritas I've drunk didn't help either. (Never ever ever at a table, if so, one and only one, maybe a nice glass of Grand Marnier 150 or one Cognac, that would be it. Later is the time, I do not care if I was up $100K, would not do it at a table playing)
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 20, 2019, 05:15:08 AM
The classical proof that even playing with an advantage one can easily miss the target to aim for.
Not ashamed to say this.
I'm an idi.ot.
as.
Same thing last night, exactly, except no drinks. F***ing idiotic play, seen it after a bit and completely ignored it all, continued and did not change.
I kept saying to myself, it will. It has to. Influences from everywhere. Not their fault, mine, 100 percent.
Seriously bad play.
Last Night was a WOW shoe! Past most peoples understanding, but me and my buddy saw it and saw it clearly.
The table emptied the dealer's rack 2 times! Physically stopping the shoe until security hustled in with a fill.
Unbelievable!
I will comment and try the best to recreate what happened and why. I am sure a few will say, that is not the way to play, but yes it was and yes it worked. I want to say camaraderie, but this shoe it was more of motivation and following. Or not following. It was difficult at many points, because half the players or more made it that way.
I tried to take more pictures, but the one floor manager is cool, unfortunately since the table was taking in excess of $50,000 every few hands out of the dealer's rack and it is not a casino in a huge venue, all the top brass came in. The floor person told me please do not take pics when they are there. At least I got the few couple when it was about half over anyway
Look at the 2nd, 4th and 5th lines down on the Bead Plate Section. WOW, once strong they follow, no matter what. This one stuck and stuck well. If it was a Bank line and the player returned 8, the Banker had a 9 and the other way around on the Player line there. If the Player had a 5 and the Banker had a 0, the Player would pull a 5 and the Banker would pull and Ace or a 2. But clean and clear adherence. That happens and that repeats. Why fight it. Some did and some did not, but it followed for like 30 solid wins with the four lines of the Bead Plate.
Something else we saw. With the exception of the 3 naturals shown at this point, by hand 65 or so, every other natural cut to the opposite side on the Big Road. Same with the ties, with the exception of what you see here, every other one with the exception of one more, cut to the opposite side as well. When you can win 7 or 8 or 9 out of ten wagers with positive progressions and then tone it down, it pays and pays well.
Problem being with most, they do not apply any sort of plateauing or recognizing there level, just bigger and bigger and larger wagering until they lose it, then they chase and attempt to get that lost win back immediately. And that is what happened with at least 8 out of the 15 to 18 people playing at the table.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
More of what we did.
The second line on the Bead Plate was 8 Bankers all the way across and when it went to a Player, it stuck for the rest of the shoe on the line presenting a Player each time.
The third line was 1 Banker and them 3 Players, then 1 Banker followed by another 3 Players, 1 Banker followed by yet another 3 Players.
The fourth line stuck all the ay across with only 2 Players at the very end of the shoe in the last two columns.
1s and 2s and sometimes 3s is a stuff shoe. Especially when it gives you just a few equal or consistent spacing in between the hands to prevail or recoup fro a loss. To me, this would have been a bad shoe, but we only followed the Bead Plate with the certain wagers that were strong.
There were several big players wagering table max on numerous hands, they would hit, give it all back and then win it all again. They were completely against the Bead Plate. If they played with the Bead Plate they would have cleaned house and walked away with huge money. But they were doing the repeating streak thing or the constant cut thing. Totally wrong. No way to win.
Then there was the clear and concise largest betting player clearly leading the pack. He announces the shoe will be weak and he will be wagering all chop-chop. This is right after the side by side ties, the 3rd and 4th ties of the shoe, hand 17 and 19 it was. So, he is table max each time, hits 5 and gives back 4. He is up 1. Hits 2 and give back 2. Hits 2 and gives back 2. Hits 5 more and gives back 3, he is then up 2 I think, a total of 3. Hits 2 more and at that point is announces he is up $5,000.00. Says he wants $9,000.00 and his buy in back, which i think was $1,200.00, i think he bought in and got 10 black chips and 200 in green, might have been 300. Anyway, then he hits 2 more and then he gave back 4. He was up like $1,000 I think cause he colored up and had an orange chip off to the side. Then he lost like 4 and lost another couple. He bought in again and again. The frustration was huge and he pulled down his entire side of the table with what he did and how he handled his wagering.
So a few of us continued to follow what was being presented, not chasing and wagering every hand. Extremely difficult, especially when you are hitting wins, wager after wager. Meaning, every few hands, not every single hand. You see the wins and you want the continued wins. But you have to restrain yourself, so few do!
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
A consistent shoe. Don't know how it ended after 1P 3B.
L W LL WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW L WW. How much $ ?? How much to bet and when two different subjects.
Maybe it's best to look at W/L registry to see where to bet and why.
Quote from: Jimske on March 23, 2019, 08:12:39 PM
A consistent shoe. Don't know how it ended after 1P 3B.
L W LL WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW L WW. How much $ ?? How much to bet and when two different subjects.
Maybe it's best to look at W/L registry to see where to bet and why.
I wanted to take pics but the floor manager knows I do and another allows to also whenever I want. There are the two monitors up on the walls in this particular bac room. One huge one in front of the table and one off to the side by a counter with stools and chairs. But the top brass was there and he motioned to me not to.
Anyway, it was a bad shoe for following the big road, pretty typical as you already see within the first half, 40-41 hands.
Every other tie did cut to the opposite side form whatever side the tie cut on.
A couple of 3s and 4s, more chop with 3 and 4 chops, a few twos, then the player at the very end, which almost everyone fought against happening and said it would not. Every single natural cut to the opposite side after appearing, about 6 more ties. 1 time 3 for the players in a row and then the last 4 hands were straight players as well. A bunch of 2s for the players after the picture i put of the 41st hand.
But the key was the Bead Plate, the ties cutting and the naturals. There were those 3 things that was consistent. Why fight against it?
I truly understand the aspect of charting, statistics and numbers in this game. But the best shoes and the best scenarios do not necessarily involve those. It might be a false crutch what I outline, but then again, it was winning and it was appearing. If the people did not play the way they did, most would not have got wiped or lost what they did. But they wager far too many hands and play without levels and plateaus and each and every win is not even looked at as a win, it is just bigger and bigger and larger. They think most will continue and if it does for that same shoe, then they play more and more shoes with harder and harder.
Playing 1s and 2s, or playing for just 2s, or playing for the run/streak to repeat itself or just playing chop chop, face it is the most popular 4 trends/things to wager on. When it does not continue, then the person will lose. To bounce between those four things is extremely difficult to do, you mind cannot process it and all the confusion and outside interference will play a role, IMO a huge role that will stop you from winning.
3 and sometimes 4 of us placed larger bets on the cut after a natural appeared, the cut after a tie appeared, and those 3 lines that were strong and consistent on the Bead Plate. The rest of our bets were much smaller to either stay in the game and keep some momentum or just remain there to stay focused.
Thanks Al but I really got to chuckle at all the hokus pokus above. It's nice to choose a pattern format and win when it hits. But oftentimes it just doesn't.
QuoteAnyway, it was a bad shoe for following the big road, pretty typical as you already see within the first half, 40-41 hands.
It seemed like a pretty good shoe to me just looking at the Big Road.
QuoteBut the key was the Bead Plate, the ties cutting and the naturals. There were those 3 things that was consistent. Why fight against it?
:"playa alway win afta duble tie." LOL. Funny, you circled the Bead Plate horizontal but the bead plate just mimics the Big Road and shows the chop as the Bead Plate runs VERTICALLY! But yeah you are betting the "consistent" or said another way what is strong or dominant.
You still never show the W/L registry. I wonder if Assymbac thinks this is a playable shoe and if so how many hands he would bet? 2? 3? Maybe he'll chime in.
J
Quote from: Jimske on March 24, 2019, 07:15:51 PM
Thanks Al but I really got to chuckle at all the hokus pokus above. It's nice to choose a pattern format and win when it hits. But oftentimes it just doesn't.It seemed like a pretty good shoe to me just looking at the Big Road.:"playa alway win afta duble tie." LOL. Funny, you circled the Bead Plate horizontal but the bead plate just mimics the Big Road and shows the chop as the Bead Plate runs VERTICALLY! But yeah you are betting the "consistent" or said another way what is strong or dominant.
You still never show the W/L registry. I wonder if Assymbac thinks this is a playable shoe and if so how many hands he would bet? 2? 3? Maybe he'll chime in.
J
That is correct, it is just another way to look at it.
If you think it is hokus pokus, so be it. Sit there with your head in your hands, grind a few and leave, nothing else to say.
I don't have a card from that night, i seldom save them if we are actually keeping track.
We won at least 15 to 18 large wagers we made out of about 19/20 of them. We won about an equal amount of much smaller wagers as we lost for another 15 or so wagers. We did very well on that shoe.
Following the Big Road is extremely hard to me, except for something within a Section as I outlined before. I do not (DO NOT) compare one Section against another, meaning discounting pretty much everything within that Section, once moving to another Section. Which, I do believe many are confused about. Charting vertical gives most people false hope of following whatever they see is happening outside of it actually happening, meaning it has to carry over or will repeat itself with the same presentments.
But to me, and to me and my friends alone, the Bead Plate is a better indicator when it is strong, more so than weak. I have done well on the stronger side of it, rather than second guessing it. Yes, it is following it, but I rather not wager for the shoe to conform to my desires rather than I am playing with the shoe and what it is presenting.
Just finished at the casino. Brand new shoe, seven players out of the gate one Banker one player one Banker followed by twelve players. Won 17 out of 19 hands. Colored up and cashed out and walked away great start and didn't want to see the rest of it.
NB
NB
W 1 unit
W 1 unit
W 3 units
W 6 units
W 3 units
L 3 units
W 3 units
L 6 units
W 6 units
W 12 units plus I started my 1+4 side parlay bet extra= W 3 units
W 24 units 1+4 bet parlay 1st parlay= W 6 units
W 6 units 1+4 bet parlay 2nd parlay=W 12 units
W 12 units 1+4 bet parlay 3rd parlay= W 24 units
W 24 units 1+4 bet parlay 4th parlay= W 48 units
W 24 units plus reset 1+4 1+4 side parlay bet extra= W 5 units
W 24 units 1+4 side parlay 1st parlay= W 10 units
W 24 units 1+4 side parlay 2nd parlay= W 20 units
W 24 units 1+4 side parlay 3rd parlay= W 40 units
W 24 units 1+4 side parlay 4th parlay= W 80 units
W 24 units plus reset 1+4 1 +4 side parlay bet extra= W 10 units
L 24 units Lose 10 units with my 1+4 side extra side bet
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The entire table except for 3 pf us out of well over 20 players, got wiped out. This particular casino only had baccarat since 2006 or so. A good 10 of the players I did not know last night and the other half I do well. Friends with about 5 of them and the other 5 people I knew extremely well for 4 to 5 years now.
They normally do play the cut as I call it, meaning if it is 1's and chopping, they wager for the repeat, hence to cut and change. If it is 2s or more repeating they also play for the cut, meaning to stop and switch sides. A few of them will stay on a 4 or better repeat, fighting the heck out of it the first 2 and 3 and 4 wins. Several of them had their mouths opened in awe, disbelief. Guess they never saw 18 or 20 in a row, or a series of 5 or 7 and of the opposite side, followed by the exact same thing 2 or 3 more times. Or anything of the likes. Coming up against a 1 player then 5 bankers, then again 1 player and 5 more bankers and then another player followed by 6 or 7 bankers happens. No not all the time, but when it does why fight it, why attempt to change the shoe, why wait it out in the name of safety. It is just as easy to win as lose. But I wrote and preached countless times and I get chastised for it here, BET WITH IT instead of against it! The hocus pocus to me is using your statistcs and knowledge to say something is going to happen that is not happening, that is the real hocus pocus, sorry J, but it is, IMO.
I have stated before and still stand by it, heavy player or stronger players than banker, favors the beginning of a shoe often. No stats, please do not ask, i do not do, know how to do or use stats, sorry.
Reason for wagering the players side as 3 of us did without reservation or playing for the cut, except one time, which was on the first banker for the second banker to appear. We did so because the first two were almost give me hands for the banker. Banker had 6 or 7 on both the first 2 hands and the players 3rd card was one of only 2 or 3 that could have beat the banker. Call it unintelligent or call it hokus pocus, but hey-we choose the player and stayed with it. Not scientific or mathematical whatsoever, zero of course. But it allowed us to see something and in my book, it allowed us to think and believe the player would continue. We had no idea it was going to be like 20 or so players to 2 bankers, but the other people lost the first two and fought the next 2 or 3 as well still wagering the banker. Every hand $50 to $500 easily on each persons wager, 3 or 4 of them easily $800 to well over a thousand every hand. They got sucked in. They all talked out loud. Has to cut, has to switch to banker, can not continue, tie will come out, etc., etc., etc., and so on.
These are not international high rollers in Vegas, these players are blue collar workers or managers of small businesses, some are small business owners and several own restaurants, but not large metropolitan area businesses with $20,000.00 a week disposable income, just you you understand the picture here in the Midwest.
My 1+4 Side Parlay extra wager with win money worked classically and absolutely beautiful. Love that 1+4 Side Parlay of mine is the extra cherry and a kiss with a bit of whipped creme and candy syrup on the top!
As I said in the first post in this thread:
Moving to affect the person and how it does that. I call then the 6 R?s:
Recognition
Realization
Reaction
Results
Reductions
Raises
And we did them all, and it worked. So if it did not, we would have lost only 2 bets before switching to the banker or something like that, I am not a negative progression person except for 1 or 2 wagers at times.
I did call someone that was still there an hour later when i was driving home. After I left when the 3 bankers occurred, the shoe went to about a half dozen chop chops, then into a series of 2s for about 5 or 6 or 7 times with 1 time being a single B/P. Then their was a real strong spot after hand 50 or so with 3-3-4-4-3-3 and no ties except for 1. First tie he thinks it came at hand 46 or 47. 2 ties in the entire show up to hand 70 when he took a break, when i called him. Everyone further lost money when the strong cluster came about, reciting the thought the shoe would stay all 1s or 2s, maybe a 3, was too strong already with all the players. The wagered real heavy every time the banker made the 2nd one and lost it on the 3rd. When there was a few 3 bankers, the won heavy on the second and the third ones and lost it all on the following 3 or 4 hands.
I am not degrading, humiliating or chastising those players. I am merely reciting what i see other do for your thoughts and knowledge.
The bulk of people lose at this game for precisely those reasons. Keep that in your memory. If they did not, the game would not be in the casinos. Period. People cause themselves to lose for numerous reasons. And if they do not, the stop themselves from winning large amounts of money for exactly the same reasons.
And by the way, those 4 naturals in a row on the players 12 repeating run, the banker had 3 times, their 2 cards totaling 7 or 8 to the players 8 or 9. The other one time the banker had a natural 8 to the players natural 9. Also, 3 or 4 times the banker reduced to zero and the player took the hand with total point values of 1 or 2. Take it for what it is worth,
One more thing regarding camaraderie. If it was present last night, the entire dealers racks would have been emptied, quickly and easily. But the bulk of players do not play that way any longer. I mean the entire table together and heavy, not changing the shoe, just overpowering it instead of the shoe overpowering the players. The people would just not put down their thoughts, their beliefs ad their false perceptions of this game last night. Casino did not care on bit, not one big boss in the pit, because the people continually losing was the same or in excess of what the 3 of us were winning. We took well over $70,000.00 off the table. The others lost well over $100,000.00. Nearly everyone with numerous multiple thousands of dollars of continued buy ins, and 3 or 4 of them with at least $5,000 to $10,000 each of additional buy ins.
Call it what you want. If you think this is hocus pokus, please post pictures and results of your shoes and your casino you are playing at. Thanks, Alrelax/Glen.
And this applied fairly well also, I wrote about things for a reason, they are reality and can be used as reference guides.
The count never got above +18 after I left and the banker did get with 5 of catching up by the end.
"5) + - 10's as well as + - 20's, will hold true more than any other total score numbers that I have ever seen. As well, when one side was -10 to -20 and started on its way back and then is within 2 or 3 of becoming equal, then equals out, it will bounce back and forth a few times, almost every time I see that scenario happening." Meaning, if it gets past 9/10/11 it will normally go stronger, and it will normally not get past the + or - 20 mark, rarely, IMO. And more times than not, it will bounce back or at least make a hell of an attempt at one anyway, if not equaling out.
Sorry to upset you, Al. with my hokus pokus comment. That's a lot of verbaage to go through but I did skim through it to pick out the important points. I'm not chastising you, Al. It's a guessing and betting game. You and I and most other players make bets on things that happened in the passt will continue. Therre's lots of ways to slice the shoe up looking for "doms." run lengths and positons, side indpendent, S or O, Tie Line, etc., etc. You have said this youreself. Whether we use the Roads or some other makes little difference.
QuoteThe entire table except for 3 pf us out of well over 20 players, got wiped out.
OMG, you got to be playing with some real idiots! It's one thing to bet for the cut once or twice but to keep on going against the trend with bigger and bigger money...? That's crazy. In fact hard to believe your statement above. I can and do see players watch a long trend go by (have done it myself) but get wiped out? Never seen it! I know you're up there someplace in Dakota or wherever with too much intermarrying but. . . .
WWWWWW L WWW L WWWWWWWWWW L WW L Reason is I ALWAYS start the shoe betting the first hand will repeat and continue until lose. Then I ALWAYS bet for the 1st chop to continue until lose. The only reason I got the second run is because the first run went so long. If it opened with a 2 or 3 or 4 repeat I would have played it a bit different. If I lose 3 units doing this I stop and assess and change my placement to one of two different ones that follow the trend. If that doesn't work then I am in the hole and look for other dom situations (spot play) to get back to even or a reasonable loss. If I still lose then I just take a loss for the shoe at a respectable loss, wait for the next shoe. Doesn't happen often. But I don't bet your kind of money Al. Usually around a 4 unit bet is my high. But that opens up the discussion to betting.
Most, including myself don't take advantage and "pounce" like you do. Sure the 124 a real good UAYW prog. After that we like to keep our winnings and back off. Maybe too much. A conservative way to exploit might be the Fibonacci. In a shoe like above a 124 then a Fib would really do well.
As far as posting shoe I have posted many in the past here and on other forums. Next time I see a shoe like that I'll post it. I have seen a 23 IAR and once a 17 IAR then another 18 IAR same shoe! But here are last 100 shoes I've documented at MoSun. I don't bother much anymore though. 1=P 2=B T=tie when I bothered to consider them. I generally ignore ties these days. LOL Look at the first shoe. Long runs of P and B then finish with a 1212.... which represents a 12 IAR run! Reason I point this out is to show that patterns come in similar frequencies. A 12 IAR will come as often as a 12 chop or a 1212. . . or a 3333, etc. Easier for most to jump on a long repeat or chop then say a pp bb pp bb pp bb but all the same.
JFM 713 1111111111211121121112T1112222222122T122222111112T2111112112212TT2221212121221
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" I know you're up there someplace in Dakota or wherever with too much intermarrying but. . " I was from 2002ish to 2014, no bac around there, I always went to Vegas or back to A.C. or to the Twin Cities during those times.
I am in the central Midwest, lots of action around, anywhere from $25.00 to $1,000/$2,000 tables to $25/$50 to $5,000.00 tables as well as some $50/$100 to $10,000 tables as well. Omaha, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Twin Cities (lesser amounts but you can play as many spots open), Indiana, etc. etc.
So stop assuming, etc., thank you. And yes, plenty of people really do get wiped out, really.
As far as the comment about intermarrying, listen, I am inter-racially married, I do have a SE Asian wife and mixed race children, i posted pictures of them on this board. I also have 2 black race brother in laws, i love them. I have no idea about that comment from you and I will not tolerate further ones.
As far as mix marriages THe Twin Cities has plenty of them, so far extreme and left, I guess you never been around here, LOL. Not much different than the Northeast, NYC-Nj and the entire metro area, Southern California and Las Vegas, South Florida, most other places as well. Like I said, first and last time regarding that agenda.