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Topic: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making  (Read 1202 times)

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Offline alrelax

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Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2019, 05:54:26 pm »
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  • My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com


    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #16 on: March 23, 2019, 08:12:39 pm »
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  • A consistent shoe.  Don't know how it ended after 1P 3B. 

    L W LL WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW L WW.  How much $  ??  How much to bet and when two different subjects.

    Maybe it's best to look at W/L registry to see where to bet and why.

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #17 on: March 23, 2019, 11:35:19 pm »
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  • A consistent shoe.  Don't know how it ended after 1P 3B. 

    L W LL WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW L WW.  How much $  ??  How much to bet and when two different subjects.

    Maybe it's best to look at W/L registry to see where to bet and why.

    I wanted to take pics but the floor manager knows I do and another allows to also whenever I want.  There are the two monitors up on the walls in this particular bac room.  One huge one in front of the table and one off to the side by a counter with stools and chairs.  But the top brass was there and he motioned to me not to.

    Anyway, it was a bad shoe for following the big road, pretty typical as you already see within the first half, 40-41 hands. 

    Every other tie did cut to the opposite side form whatever side the tie cut on.

    A couple of 3s and 4s, more chop with 3 and 4 chops, a few twos, then the player at the very end, which almost everyone fought against happening and said it would not.  Every single natural cut to the opposite side after appearing, about 6 more ties.  1 time 3 for the players in a row and then the last 4 hands were straight players as well.  A bunch of 2s for the players after the picture i put of the 41st hand. 

    But the key was the Bead Plate, the ties cutting and the naturals.  There were those 3 things that was consistent.  Why fight against it?

    I truly understand the aspect of charting, statistics and numbers in this game.  But the best shoes and the best scenarios do not necessarily involve those.  It might be a false crutch what I outline, but then again, it was winning and it was appearing.  If the people did not play the way they did, most would not have got wiped or lost what they did.  But they wager far too many hands and play without levels and plateaus and each and every win is not even looked at as a win, it is just bigger and bigger and larger.  They think most will continue and if it does for that same shoe, then they play more and more shoes with harder and harder.

    Playing 1s and 2s, or playing for just 2s, or playing for the run/streak to repeat itself or just playing chop chop, face it is the most popular 4 trends/things to wager on.  When it does not continue, then the person will lose.  To bounce between those four things is extremely difficult to do, you mind cannot process it and all the confusion and outside interference will play a role, IMO a huge role that will stop you from winning. 

    3 and sometimes 4 of us placed larger bets on the cut after a natural appeared, the cut after a tie appeared, and those 3 lines that were strong and consistent on the Bead Plate.  The rest of our bets were much smaller to either stay in the game and keep some momentum or just remain there to stay focused. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #18 on: March 24, 2019, 07:15:51 pm »
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  • Thanks Al but I really got to chuckle at all the hokus pokus above.  It's nice to choose a pattern format and win when it hits.  But oftentimes it just doesn't.
    Quote
    Anyway, it was a bad shoe for following the big road, pretty typical as you already see within the first half, 40-41 hands.
    It seemed like a pretty good shoe to me just looking at the Big Road.
    Quote
    But the key was the Bead Plate, the ties cutting and the naturals.  There were those 3 things that was consistent.  Why fight against it?
    :"playa alway win afta duble tie."  LOL.  Funny, you circled the Bead Plate horizontal but the bead plate just mimics the Big Road and shows the chop as the Bead Plate runs VERTICALLY!  But yeah you are betting the "consistent" or said another way what is strong or dominant. 

    You still never show the W/L registry.  I wonder if Assymbac thinks this is a playable shoe and if so how many hands he would bet?  2?  3?  Maybe he'll chime in.

    J


    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #19 on: March 24, 2019, 08:09:40 pm »
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  • Thanks Al but I really got to chuckle at all the hokus pokus above.  It's nice to choose a pattern format and win when it hits.  But oftentimes it just doesn't.It seemed like a pretty good shoe to me just looking at the Big Road.:"playa alway win afta duble tie."  LOL.  Funny, you circled the Bead Plate horizontal but the bead plate just mimics the Big Road and shows the chop as the Bead Plate runs VERTICALLY!  But yeah you are betting the "consistent" or said another way what is strong or dominant. 

    You still never show the W/L registry.  I wonder if Assymbac thinks this is a playable shoe and if so how many hands he would bet?  2?  3?  Maybe he'll chime in.


    J

    That is correct, it is just another way to look at it. 

    If you think it is hokus pokus, so be it.  Sit there with your head in your hands, grind a few and leave, nothing else to say.

    I don't have a card from that night, i seldom save them if we are actually keeping track.

    We won at least 15 to 18 large wagers we made out of about 19/20 of them.  We won about an equal amount of much smaller wagers as we lost for another 15 or so wagers.  We did very well on that shoe.

    Following the Big Road is extremely hard to me, except for something within a Section as I outlined before. I do not (DO NOT) compare one Section against another, meaning discounting pretty much everything within that Section, once moving to another Section.  Which, I do believe many are confused about.  Charting vertical gives most people false hope of following whatever they see is happening outside of it actually happening, meaning it has to carry over or will repeat itself with the same presentments. 

    But to me, and to me and my friends alone, the Bead Plate is a better indicator when it is strong, more so than weak.  I have done well on the stronger side of it, rather than second guessing it.  Yes, it is following it, but I rather not wager for the shoe to conform to my desires rather than I am playing with the shoe and what it is presenting.



    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #20 on: March 25, 2019, 07:02:25 am »
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  • Just finished at the casino. Brand new shoe, seven players out of the gate one Banker one player one Banker followed by twelve players. Won 17 out of 19 hands. Colored up and cashed out and walked away great start and didn't want to see the rest of it.

    NB
    NB
    W 1 unit
    W 1 unit
    W 3 units
    W 6 units
    W 3 units

    L  3 units
    W 3 units
    L  6 units

    W  6 units
    W  12 units   plus I started my 1+4 side parlay bet extra= W 3 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 bet parlay 1st parlay= W 6 units
    W  6  units                              1+4 bet parlay 2nd parlay=W 12 units
    W  12 units                             1+4 bet parlay 3rd parlay= W 24 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 bet parlay 4th parlay= W 48 units
    W  24 units   plus reset 1+4     1+4 side parlay bet extra=  W 5 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 side parlay 1st parlay= W 10 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 side parlay 2nd parlay= W 20 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 side parlay 3rd parlay= W 40 units
    W  24 units                             1+4 side parlay 4th parlay= W  80 units
    W  24 units   plus reset 1+4     1 +4 side parlay bet extra=  W 10 units

    L   24 units                             Lose 10 units with my 1+4 side extra side bet





    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #21 on: March 25, 2019, 12:48:04 pm »
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  • The entire table except for 3 pf us out of well over 20 players, got wiped out.  This particular casino only had baccarat since 2006 or so.  A good 10 of the players I did not know last night and the other half I do well.  Friends with about 5 of them and the other 5 people I knew extremely well for 4 to 5 years now. 

    They normally do play the cut as I call it, meaning if it is 1's and chopping, they wager for the repeat, hence to cut and change.  If it is 2s or more repeating they also play for the cut, meaning to stop and switch sides.  A few of them will stay on a 4 or better repeat, fighting the heck out of it the first 2 and 3 and 4 wins.  Several of them had their mouths opened in awe, disbelief.  Guess they never saw 18 or 20 in a row, or a series of 5 or 7 and of the opposite side, followed by the exact same thing 2 or 3 more times.  Or anything of the likes.  Coming up against a 1 player then 5 bankers, then again 1 player and 5 more bankers and then another player followed by 6 or 7 bankers happens.  No not all the time, but when it does why fight it, why attempt to change the shoe, why wait it out in the name of safety. It is just as easy to win as lose.  But I wrote and preached countless times and I get chastised for it here, BET WITH IT instead of against it!  The hocus pocus to me is using your statistcs and knowledge to say something is going to happen that is not happening, that is the real hocus pocus, sorry J, but it is, IMO.

    I have stated before and still stand by it, heavy player or stronger players than banker, favors the beginning of a shoe often.  No stats, please do not ask, i do not do, know how to do or use stats, sorry. 

    Reason for wagering the players side as 3 of us did without reservation or playing for the cut, except one time, which was on the first banker for the second banker to appear.  We did so because the first two were almost give me hands for the banker.  Banker had 6 or 7 on both the first 2 hands and the players 3rd card was one of only 2 or 3 that could have beat the banker.  Call it unintelligent or call it hokus pocus, but hey-we choose the player and stayed with it.  Not scientific or mathematical whatsoever, zero of course.  But it allowed us to see something and in my book, it allowed us to think and believe the player would continue.  We had no idea it was going to be like 20 or so players to 2 bankers, but the other people lost the first two and fought the next 2 or 3 as well still wagering the banker.  Every hand $50 to $500 easily on each persons wager, 3 or 4 of them easily $800 to well over a thousand every hand.  They got sucked in.  They all talked out loud.  Has to cut, has to switch to banker, can not continue, tie will come out, etc., etc., etc., and so on. 

    These are not international high rollers in Vegas, these players are blue collar workers or managers of small businesses, some are small business owners and several own restaurants, but not large metropolitan area businesses with $20,000.00 a week disposable income, just you you understand the picture here in the Midwest. 

    My 1+4 Side Parlay extra wager with win money worked classically and absolutely beautiful.  Love that 1+4 Side Parlay of mine is the extra cherry and a kiss with a bit of whipped creme and candy syrup on the top! 

    As I said in the first post in this thread:

    Moving to affect the person and how it does that.  I call then the 6 R?s:

    Recognition
    Realization
    Reaction
    Results
    Reductions
    Raises

    And we did them all, and it worked.  So if it did not, we would have lost only 2 bets before switching to the banker or something like that, I am not a negative progression person except for 1 or 2 wagers at times. 

    I did call someone that was still there an hour later when i was driving home.  After I left when the 3 bankers occurred, the shoe went to about a half dozen chop chops, then into a series of 2s for about 5 or 6 or 7 times with 1 time being a single B/P.  Then their was a real strong spot after hand 50 or so with 3-3-4-4-3-3 and no ties except for 1.  First tie he thinks it came at hand 46 or 47.  2 ties in the entire show up to hand 70 when he took a break, when i called him.  Everyone further lost money when the strong cluster came about, reciting the thought the shoe would stay all 1s or 2s, maybe a 3, was too strong already with all the players.  The wagered real heavy every time the banker made the 2nd one and lost it on the 3rd.  When there was a few 3 bankers, the won heavy on the second and the third ones and lost it all on the following 3 or 4 hands.   

    I am not degrading, humiliating or chastising those players.  I am merely reciting what i see other do for your thoughts and knowledge. 

    The bulk of people lose at this game for precisely those reasons.  Keep that in your memory.  If they did not, the game would not be in the casinos.  Period.  People cause themselves to lose for numerous reasons.  And if they do not, the stop themselves from winning large amounts of money for exactly the same reasons. 

    And by the way, those 4 naturals in a row on the players 12 repeating run, the banker had 3 times, their 2 cards totaling 7 or 8 to the players 8 or 9.  The other one time the banker had a natural 8 to the players natural 9.  Also, 3 or 4 times the banker reduced to zero and the player took the hand with total point values of 1 or 2.  Take it for what it is worth,

    One more thing regarding camaraderie.  If it was present last night, the entire dealers racks would have been emptied, quickly and easily.  But the bulk of players do not play that way any longer.  I mean the entire table together and heavy, not changing the shoe, just overpowering it instead of the shoe overpowering the players.  The people would just not put down their thoughts, their beliefs ad their false perceptions of this game last night. Casino did not care on bit, not one big boss in the pit, because the people continually losing was the same or in excess of what the 3 of us were winning.  We took well over $70,000.00 off the table.  The others lost well over $100,000.00.  Nearly everyone with numerous multiple thousands of dollars of continued buy ins, and 3 or 4 of them with at least $5,000 to $10,000 each of additional buy ins. 

    Call it what you want.  If you think this is hocus pokus, please post pictures and results of your shoes and your casino you are playing at.  Thanks, Alrelax/Glen.
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline alrelax

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #22 on: March 25, 2019, 01:26:03 pm »
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  • And this applied fairly well also, I wrote about things for a reason, they are reality and can be used as reference guides. 

    The count never got above +18 after I left and the banker did get with 5 of catching up by the end. 

    "5)  + - 10's as well as + - 20's, will hold true more than any other total score numbers that I have ever seen.  As well, when one side was -10 to -20 and started on its way back and then is within 2 or 3 of becoming equal, then equals out, it will bounce back and forth a few times, almost every time I see that scenario happening."  Meaning, if it gets past 9/10/11 it will normally go stronger, and it will normally not get past the + or - 20 mark, rarely, IMO.  And more times than not, it will bounce back or at least make a hell of an attempt at one anyway, if not equaling out. 
    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #23 on: March 25, 2019, 05:20:15 pm »
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  • Sorry to upset you, Al. with my hokus pokus comment.  That's a lot of verbaage to go through but I did skim through it to pick out the important points.  I'm not chastising you, Al.  It's a guessing and betting game.  You and I and most other players make bets on things that happened in the passt will continue.  Therre's lots of ways to slice the shoe up looking for "doms."  run lengths and positons, side indpendent, S or O, Tie Line, etc., etc.  You have said this youreself.  Whether we use the Roads or some other makes little difference.

    Quote
    The entire table except for 3 pf us out of well over 20 players, got wiped out.
    OMG, you got to be playing with some real idiots!  It's one thing to bet for the cut once or twice but to keep on going against the trend with bigger and bigger money...?  That's crazy.  In fact hard to believe your statement above.  I can and do see players watch a long trend go by (have done it myself) but get wiped out?  Never seen it!  I know you're up there someplace in Dakota or wherever with too much intermarrying but. . . .

    WWWWWW L WWW L WWWWWWWWWW L WW L     Reason is I ALWAYS start the shoe betting the first hand will repeat and continue until lose.  Then I ALWAYS bet for the 1st chop to continue until lose.   The only reason I got the second run is because the first run went so long.  If it opened with a 2 or 3 or 4 repeat I would have played it a bit different.  If I lose 3 units doing this I stop and assess and change my placement to one of two different ones that follow the trend.  If that doesn't work then I am in the hole and look for other dom situations (spot play) to get back to even or a reasonable loss.  If I still lose then I just take a loss for the shoe at a respectable loss, wait for the next shoe.  Doesn't happen often.  But I don't bet your kind of money Al.  Usually around a 4 unit bet is my high.  But that opens up the discussion to betting. 

    Most, including myself don't take advantage and "pounce" like you do.  Sure the 124 a real good UAYW prog.  After that we like to keep our winnings and back off.  Maybe too much.  A conservative way to exploit might be the Fibonacci.  In a shoe like above a 124 then a Fib would really do well.

    As far as posting shoe I have posted many in the past here and on other forums.  Next time I see a shoe like that I'll post it.  I have seen a 23 IAR and once a 17 IAR then another 18 IAR same shoe!  But here are last 100 shoes I've documented at MoSun.  I don't bother much anymore though.  1=P  2=B T=tie when I bothered to consider them.  I generally ignore ties these days.  LOL  Look at the first shoe.  Long runs of P and B then finish with a 1212.... which represents a 12 IAR run!  Reason I point this out is to show that patterns come in similar frequencies.   A 12 IAR will come as often as a 12 chop or a 1212. . . or a 3333, etc.  Easier for most to jump on a long repeat or chop then say a pp bb pp bb pp bb but all the same. 

    JFM   713      1111111111211121121112T1112222222122T122222111112T2111112112212TT2221212121221
    JFM   714      2111122221111211T2111111122121T22122T121211211112121T2221222TT112221222222222
    JFM   715      21221111121122121122112112111112122212112212112T2212112221
    JFM   716      21121221T22222122T211121221112212122T212112211T1221222T12T2
    JFM   717      22121T2122T2222121111T111212T1222222121T1222TT121221121221122221221T11T122
    JFM   718      2121211111221122212222211211111T2222211T1122212221222212212T2T121TT12
    JFM   719      T21122112112111T1122T222222111212111T1T2111T122221112222212212212111121
    JFM   720      12222T111112T1211121212111221221222TT22221211211211221122T121
    JFM   721      2212111211T112212222TT2121TT2111T12112212T121T2222112111112T211121T2221T222221
    JFM   722      1T1T1T121212222T11212221T2212T222212122T211112112212122221T1212112221T1T11211
    JFM   723      212221122212221112212222221212212211222212211211121121111112122
    JFM   724      21111222221211111221111221122121121221221212111111211121121111
    JFM   725      2222111111221212121122212112112222111212122121211222
    JFM   726      111122222221212112212122111222212122112221212122111211111211112221
    JFM   727      112122122221112211111122212111221121121122121212121111112222212211121
    JFM   728      21111212211221112111111211122221221212211211122221122112111121211
    JFM   729      12122222121211222111121222112112221121221221122221121221211211221
    JFM   730      2211121121211111222221211112222122112221111211221122122211211121
    JFM   731      222222222211121212222122211212222111121112112111111221212222122122
    JFM   732      1122212221211112212221221221221112211221122212122222212211212222122212122
    JFM   733      12122121212111121121221111221122211212212122222121112122221221222211112211112
    JFM   734      211222112221211111121221212212212211222112
    JFM   735      21121212221122111222111111121111221121112221222121112222
    JFM   736      11121122212121112211111212211112222122222221122212222111212222121
    JFM   737      221121222212222221222122211221211111122121212222222
    JFM   738      112122212112221222112112211122221111112121222222212212121122222222212
    JFM   739      112211221212211221221121222211121221112212212121122122212111212221121112
    JFM   740      22112212122211222121212121121121112222212222211211212212211222121
    JFM   741      121211222121212211221222212212122122112111111221111121111221211
    JFM   742      212222211111221212222212112212112221221221122212112121121222121222111
    JFM   743      11122122212112212212211121122212212122212111112
    JFM   744      211222112222212222212111221221221112221221212221112222211121222121111
    JFM   745      11221211112211112112222211221111121211212211111212212
    JFM   746      121212112112122121222122111111222111111211122222212212222211112121
    JFM   747      2212211221121121222221222112111112212111212122222122112212221222222222
    JFM   748      1212211221221112212211122212211112221111221112121111221112212212221
    JFM   749      112212211122221221121111222111212221112112112211111222221122122112212
    JFM   750      1111212221122112121222112122121221222112112211121222212122222211211
    JFM   751      122212222221121112211211112211122111111212221111221211122
    JFM   752      12221211111222222211211212212222111212122121111111112122212212112
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    Offline alrelax

    • B&M Player since 1980
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    Re: Playing Baccarat & Decision Making
    « Reply #24 on: March 25, 2019, 05:28:05 pm »
  • ReplyReply
  • "  I know you're up there someplace in Dakota or wherever with too much intermarrying but. . "  I was from 2002ish to 2014, no bac around there, I always went to Vegas or back to A.C. or to the Twin Cities during those times. 

    I am in the central Midwest, lots of action around, anywhere from $25.00 to $1,000/$2,000 tables to $25/$50 to $5,000.00 tables as well as some $50/$100 to $10,000 tables as well.  Omaha, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Twin Cities (lesser amounts but you can play as many spots open), Indiana, etc. etc. 

    So stop assuming, etc., thank you. And yes, plenty of people really do get wiped out, really.

    As far as the comment about intermarrying, listen, I am inter-racially married, I do have a SE Asian wife and mixed race children, i posted pictures of them on this board.  I also have 2 black race brother in laws, i love them.  I have no idea about that comment from you and I will not tolerate further ones.

    As far as mix marriages THe Twin Cities has plenty of them, so far extreme and left, I guess you never been around here, LOL.  Not much different than the Northeast, NYC-Nj and the entire metro area, Southern California and Las Vegas, South Florida, most other places as well.   Like I said, first and last time regarding that agenda.

    My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

    Played well over 27,694 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

    "Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

    Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

    Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
     
    EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com