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[gr8player]

Every player has their own unique style of play.  The astute/savvy player will develope a mode of play that suits their own personal style, both bet selection- and money management-wise.

And that same astute/savvy player, while obviously in tune with exactly what they need to win, also knows exactly what it is that causes them to fail (read: lose).  And so it becomes imperative for that player to know exactly what their nemesis appears as; then it becomes but a short step to do their very best to avoid the "nemesis trap".

That short step is:  the "no-bet" option.  Simply put, when the cards/table/shoe (or portion thereof) is not in tune with your preferred plays, the wisest solution is to "stop the bleeding" of chips and simply wait it out.  Assuming your bet selection process is of any good use at all (and that astute/savvy player knows darn well that it is), then you are very well aware that those same plays that are failing at the moment will, in fact, come to the forefront soon enough.

OK.  Let's define "soon enough":  It might occur later in the same shoe, or it might occur in the next one.  But you know that it will occur, because you're armed with statistics that prove certain "variance points".  And so the "wait", as I put it, then becomes a "wait of confidence", where your preferred plays' appearance is, frankly, but a matter of time.

So now that player is left with a choice.  Do I keep on betting into shoes (or portions thereof) that are not in compliance with the winning plays that I am there to profit on?  Isn't that answer a rather obvious one?  Please know this:  Regardless of bankroll size, you simply cannot "bully" the casino, for they will FOREVER be bigger and badder than we, as players, can ever be.  No matter how much money you now decide to put into that B/P circle, it will not alter the outcome for the casino.  Rather, only YOU are affected directly by the size of your next bet.  And, make no mistake of it, my friends, "over-betting" is your worst enemy, and the casino's best ally.  Especially over-betting into a losing jag.  It is "Baccarat suicide".

Witness the player at my table last Thursday night:

He bought in for $1000, and was doing decently, hitting most of his higher (100 - 200) bets, while losing some of the smaller (50 - 75) bets.  And so, at one point, I'd guess he was up a bit over $1000.  Now he proceeds to lose a couple of bets in a row, and then, all of a sudden, he's "all-in" on the very next hand.  About $2000 bet on the Player's side.  He lost to a natural 9 on the Banker's side.  Huffing and puffing, he walked away.

I ask you:  What made him do this?  He appeared as a decent player to me, at least up until that "suicide moment".  So what was it that compelled him to go "all-in" on any particular bet?  I'll give you my answer:  He wanted to lose.  What's that you say, gr8player...he WANTED to lose?  Well, he wanted a quick resolution.  You see, alot of players simply cannot take the pressure that patience and discipline warrants in order to "wait out" the game (read: letting the game come to them, rather than them chasing the game).  And so they "load up" on a bet, usually after a few losses in a row, in order to, as quickly as possible, eradicate that pressure, eradicate that sunken "losing feeling"...and so they load up to "end it all".  Again, virtual "Baccarat suicide".  And, believe it or not, that big loss (and unnecessary, if you ask me) was rather "alleviating" for that player, as now the pressure of the game is, effectively, off.

So we learn what not to do.  We learn that we cannot "bully" the game, and we cannot change the outcomes, regardless of bet size and regardless of all of our "wishing" it so.  And so we MUST learn another, better way to react to our "nemesis", for the astute/savvy player is the player that reacts to each decision rather matter-of-factly, and it then becomes that rather controlled reaction that becomes one of their best plays.  Know this:  Our preferred plays are not just in bet-selection form, they are in reactionary form, as well.  In other words, our "no-bet" option, at times, is our "preferred play".  That is exactly how to best deal with our nemesis; dare I say, that is the best way to, in the long run, DEFEAT our nemesis.  Can't "wish it" away and you certainly can't "big-bet" it away...rather, you can simply decide to recognize it and LET IT PASS.  Thereby limiting the damage, both to your bankroll and your psyche.

That, my friends, is how you learn to win.  You learn to view that game with "long-term" lenses, and by doing so then each decision, each outcome, doesn't weigh as heavily upon you, and then, PRESTO-WHAMMO, the game isn't as pressurized for you, and you won't find yourself "tilting towards those bail-out bets".  Learn to let the game come to you rather than you chasing the game.  Trust me, your preferred plays will appear...and so the question then becomes:  Will you be there for them, or will you be making that dreaded walk (like that fella last Thursday night) back to the parking valet.

So be prepared to await your preferred plays, and then bet confidently.  Doesn't mean you'll win each bet, but it does mean that you've effectively put yourself in the very best position to WIN over the long term.  You maintain your patience, you maintain your discipline, and you maintain control of yourself, and, trust me, the game will follow.  The casino beats only those that haven't a plan of play that puts themselves in the very best position to succeed.  They beat the dreamers, they beat the gamblers.  What they have trouble beating are the players that don't beat THEMSELVES.  It then becomes your responsibility to BECOME THAT PLAYER.

Take care, and stay well.

[AsymBacGuy]

I 1 billion agree.

We are again 1 billion certain that some events (that is some expected "positive" events) will come out per a given restricted range of shoes dealt. Sure as hell.

We cannot know when a natural flow of most likely events will end up, but we know that after a strong distribution of some negative situations had come out, something good MUST happen.

It's not a RTM effect intended in the strict way, it's just the natural flow of the game coming back.
Obviously the natural flow of the game doesn't involve many P streaks and/or many B singles.
:-)

as.

[Lung Yeh]

When one is patient, the casinos becomes impatient.

[soxfan]

I only make about 30 real cake wagers per shoe, and that's plenty, hey hey.

[ppkkint]

Yes.  Smart players know that it's human nature to have a certain amount of time or a certain amount of effort tracked.  Players can surrender to that urge to get things going when ahead, but moreso when down because you have played enough or put in enough effort and it is time for things to roll your way.

The advantage is to know that you can make or lose money very fast and you are most likely in front of a lot of tables that are all showing different opportunities.  Been there and done that many times.  Last night I went through this super late in my session and within less than 15 minutes I capitalized on a progression from behind.  The night before it was very early in the session and I did them same.  During both time periods, my strike rate and amount won were very good.

One of the easiest progressions to do this is a long Bank or Player Dragon and for some a jumping shoe or terrible 2.

21 Aces,
Please kindly answer when exactly  to jumping on those a long B or P Dragon? When do you call oh, it's B or P dragon? Is it after 4 in a row  B or P? 5 iar? 6iar? 7?

Jumping shoe: What do you consider a jumping shoe? BB PBP,  BB PBPB, BB PBPBP or BB PBPBPB....how many time it has to jump in order for you to consider it's a jumping and let you jump on it?

Terrible 2 :   When do you call a T2?  Is it BBB PP BB??  PPP BB PP BB ?? or PPP BB PP BB  PP???  Where do you hopping  on ?
Thanks in advance.

[Jimske]

I 1 billion agree.

We are again 1 billion certain that some events (that is some expected "positive" events) will come out per a given restricted range of shoes dealt. Sure as hell.
as.

I suppose we are still waiting year after year for the book to finally explain how to to identify these "positive" events?

[gr8player]

Our "positive events" are relatively easy, aren't they?  After all, we've all developed our personal bet selection methods based upon our most comfortable and recognizable "positive events", right?

This thread is more about the events that happen much more often....either our outright nemesis or simply alot of "nothingness".

Think about for a minute:

How often is your bet selection process picking winner after after winner?  In reality, it's simply not that often.  But, that's OK.  The astute/savvy player has long ago comes to terms with that reality.  For only when you learn to accept that fact can you set out to build your play best-designed to deal with it.

So the reality is that most of the time our bet selections fail.  Think about that....most of the time, they AREN'T appearing.  Well, even the very best major-league hitters fail almost 7 out of 10 attempts at getting a hit.  And they deal with it.  They have their way, and so we must have ours.

And so I developed my "no-bet" option.  I understand that most of time, my preferred plays will be sleeping.  I am, however, fueled by the fact that they will come around at some point, and that I am prepared with enough patience and discipline to both await their arrival and profit therefrom.

So the key is to limit the damage from the "nemesis"/"nothingness" and to accept the profit from the "positive events".  Then the formula comes down to the simple "rinse and repeat" mantra.

That is how you play the "Winning-Waiting Game".

Take care, and stay well.

[Jimske]

Every player has their own unique style of play.  The astute/savvy player will develope a mode of play that suits their own personal style, both bet selection- and money management-wise.

And that same astute/savvy player, while obviously in tune with exactly what they need to win, also knows exactly what it is that causes them to fail (read: lose).  And so it becomes imperative for that player to know exactly what their nemesis appears as; then it becomes but a short step to do their very best to avoid the "nemesis trap".

IMO the above two paragraphs hone in on the essence of this guessing game.  The shoe must conform to ones style of play, no matter what style that is.  And no matter what style one is playing everyone is looking for some dominant trend in the shoe - consistency.  Could be a group of decisions, a simple pattern, a common run length, WL registry, a lot of different things.  Best not to get too involved and confused by all the possibilities.  Here's one that confounded all of the players on the table the other day.  All left except me and another who did lose.  I happened to manage W17 and L15 for a small win of 6 units.  In hindsight a couple of good opportunities for some strong bets but I was looking for something else and at one point lost 8 of 10 bets but then I finished with 8 WIAR.  Took me a while to pick up some doms due to it's initial inconsistent nature.  Perhaps some styles would have loved this shoe.  I did win back to back 7 times for what that's worth.

pp B p BB p B p B p BBBBB p B pppp BB pp BBBB ppp B p B pp BB p B p B p BBBB p B p B pppppp BB pp B p B ppppppp B p.[/quote]

[gr8player]

Good job catching that "P-dom" at the tail end of the shoe, Jimske.

That's exactly what I'm referring to in this "Playing the Winning-Waiting Game" thread.  Knowing, recognizing, and awaiting those opportunities when your preferred plays are lighting up the scoreboard.  And scaling back your bets when they're not.

Truly professional play.  Keep up the good fight, and you'll forever be "one tough out" for any casino.  Take care.

[gr8player]

I built a nice little hole to work out of last night in a few hands yesterday EXACTLY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.  End of shoe, tired, thirsty, and hungry AND THESE WERE HIGH CONFIDENCE BETS according to my bet size!!!   

I had to regroup and battle back. Stupid.

Not quite as "stupid" as you might think, 21 Aces.  Happens to the best of us.  We all lose hands.  Especially so at the start of some sessions, where our plays simply weren't as strong as we might've expected.  It happens.

Just gotta try to limit the damage in those turbulent times.  Waiting it out with your "no-bet" option is the very best move.  Sit out and, as you put it yourself just above, "regroup and battle back".  Then when your plays are "triggered in" again, make your move (read: re-commence betting).  If still no upside or turnaround is apparent (read: still losing the majority of bets), I'd  suggest a break...either later in the shoe when the trends may be changing for the better, or, even more likely, a new shoe.

Look, we all lose at some point.  With all of my writings and postings about patience and discipline and trends with dominations, I STILL LOSE BETS.  We all lose bets.  And so we all have our times where we must "regroup and battle back".

That, in fact, is the very point of this thread.  The astute/savvy player RECOGNZES those times when he's fighting that uphill battle where his preferred plays simply aren't that strong, and then DOES SOMETHING ABOUT IT by limiting his exposure and, thusly, limiting the damage to his bankroll.  And limiting the damage to his psyche.  Meaning:  Learn not to expect to win every hand, or even the majority of hands.  When you learn that, you won't be knocked for a loop when the cards aren't falling your way.  And then you won't be calling yourself "stupid".

Take care, and stay well.

[alrelax]

There are tons and tons of wisdom in 'less wagering is better' as well as the beginning of the shoe Vs. the end.  Most of the old school players I associated with happen to do better in the first half than the second half.  The second half seems to suck in most players attempting, among other things, to match-follow trending-play cuts, etc., etc., etc., than the first half does.  The first half in most of our books, if we are aware and paying attention and not tired or bored, we can catch the "laying a path or laying a track" before it all either fizzles completely out or otherwise unplayable.  And, on the other hand, yes--at times what I mentioned can happen in the middle ort the end, just is easier to catch at the beginning or first 1/3rd or 40% than it is elsewhere.  Many factors involved. 

[Jimske]

Good job catching that "P-dom" at the tail end of the shoe, Jimske.

I didn't get that P run at end of the shoe Gr8.  I got my 8 IAR over the last 30 decisions picking dom spots.  There's always a few ways to win providing one guesses the right placement and the shoe continues to conform.

That's exactly what I'm referring to in this "Playing the Winning-Waiting Game" thread.  Knowing, recognizing, and awaiting those opportunities when your preferred plays are lighting up the scoreboard.  And scaling back your bets when they're not.

Keeping bets tight, MM and looking for dominance is one way but not the only way.