+ Register

[rbpd5015]

Guys,

I have written a Baccarat Simulator in python. The problem I am having is the results seem to favor Player just a bit.


My Baccarat Simulator setup.

8 deck shoe

Card is then dealt and the value of that card is the amount of cards burned before first hand.

Once the shoe hits 16 cards no new hands start.

Below are my stats after 100K simulated shoes.
Baccarat Simulator Recap
____________________________________
Total Shoes Played - 100000
Total Hands Played - 8108635
Average Hands Per Shoe - 81
Total Banker Wins - 3568819
Average Banker Wins Per Shoe - 35
Total Player Wins - 3679521
Average Player Wins Per Shoe - 36
Total Ties - 760294
Average Ties Per Shoe - 7
Banker Max Winning Streak - 20
Player Max Winning Streak - 21
Ties Max Winning Streak - 7


Seems like every time I run this sim I get roughly the same thing. Shows more Player wins then Banker?

What do you guys think?

Matt

[esoito]

I've never coded in Python but could the random number generator you're using be the problem?

Or would the problem disappear as things even out over a longer run of tests?

Or is what you're seeing really a problem at all? (Reality versus expectations...?)

[Rinzler]

Here's another one.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/kiosk/20072-baccarat-online-3d/#post409578

[ADulay]

Guys,

Below are my stats after 100K simulated shoes.
Baccarat Simulator Recap
____________________________________
Total Shoes Played - 100000
Total Hands Played - 8108635
Average Hands Per Shoe - 81
Total Banker Wins - 3568819
Average Banker Wins Per Shoe - 35
Total Player Wins - 3679521
Average Player Wins Per Shoe - 36
Total Ties - 760294
Average Ties Per Shoe - 7
Banker Max Winning Streak - 20
Player Max Winning Streak - 21
Ties Max Winning Streak - 7


Seems like every time I run this sim I get roughly the same thing. Shows more Player wins then Banker?

What do you guys think?

Matt

Matt,

  Considering the parameters you mentioned at the start, it looks like there may very well be something amiss as you're showing an AVERAGE hands per shoe of 81 and based on what you've said for starting and stopping the shoe, that does seem a bit high, even for a computer generated run.

  AD


 

[sqzbox]

I would suggest something wrong somewhere. You should get the expected B/P percentages. Plus, the sum of your averages isn't totalling right either.  There can only be B,P,T right - so the averages of each should total the average hands. This could be accumulated rounding errors if you are doing it per shoe, or perhaps some other arithmetical error. You'll need to take it apart and analyse exactly how it is working. How do you generate your random numbers, what is the nature of that particular method, and so on. Random number generators can be notoriously bad - such as the default one that comes with excel - wouldn't touch it with a barge pole!

[Albalaha]

Total Banker Wins - 3568819

Total Player Wins - 3679521
Total Ties - 760294

Total should be 8008634. While yours is slightly different. Further, In such long span, with correct drawing rules, Player can never override Banker in terms of more wins. There is some fault in your simulation. You can use this 100k simulated shoes here and analyse: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/13311083/100k-Shoes-Data-created-by-My-baccarat-Shoe-Factory#.VGVqRzSUdA4