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[alrelax]

I will start this off by quoting Gizmotron:

"that intermittently, for short bursts, travel upward for a few spins or rolls of the dice. These up bursts can be targeted and exploited by a skilled player. Math experts say that this is not possible. There are very few skilled players strong enough and smart enough to exploit this condition."

And that my friends is part of the whole key to being able to make money at baccarat. 

I am writing the piece now, as I have been working on it for sometime and will get it posted later today. 

Pure Reality!

Check back...................................

[alrelax]

Part #1:

"Despite the obvious, many casino professionals limit their advancements by failing to understand the basic mathematics of the games and their relationships to casino profitability".  And, likewise, so many, like as in the highest number of players, as in 99+ percentage, do not know either.

Mathematics should also overcome the dangers of superstitions. An owner of a major Las Vegas strip casino once experienced a streak of losing substantial amounts of money to a few "high rollers." He did not attribute this losing streak to normal volatility in the games, but to bad luck. His solution was simple. He spent the evening spreading salt throughout the casino to ward off the bad spirits. Before attributing this example to the idiosyncrasies of one owner, his are atypical only in their extreme. Superstition has long been a part of gambling - from both sides of the table. Superstitions can lead to irrational decisions that may hurt casino profits. For example, believing that a particular dealer is unlucky against a particular (winning) player may lead to a decision to change dealers. As many, if not most, players are superstitious. At best, he may resent that the casino is trying to change his luck. At worst, the player may feel the new dealer is skilled in methods to "cool" the game. Perhaps he is even familiar with stories of old where casinos employed dealers to cheat "lucky" players. There is so much wisdom there, but half of the players will say,?that's a crock of bull and the other half will simply say,?yes, and those superstitions win me money, etc.

With a few notable exceptions, the house always wins - in the long run - because of the mathematical advantage the casino enjoys over the player.?  And, that is absolute gospel, I am not going to argue or go into any dialog as to how to beat the casino playing every shoe, every hand, etc.  That is ludicrous and fallacy to think you can win by extensive and long plays, playing 7 days a week, making a living, getting wealthy, winning thousands a day, etc., etc., etc., and so on. 

The amount of money the player can expect to win or lose in the long run - if the bet is made over and over again - is called the player's wager expected value (EV), or expectation. When the player's wager expectation is negative, he will lose money in the long run. For a $5 bet on the color red in roulette, for example, the expectation is -$0.263. On the average the player will lose just over a quarter for each $5 bet on red. And, there you have it, simple and sweet.  But too much so, IMO.  Then you have all the authors, systems people, and also those people that promote with aggressiveness,?fallacy statements and things like How to beat-the-casino?.  And as attractive and mouth-watering as that stuff sounds, reads and looks on the internet, it sure appeals and catches the people that are?ready-willing & able to promote and try the exact same stuff.  Hence, the people like those on the website, Beat-The-Casino? for example.  You will have a certain group of people that are in collusion with a?trickster and a ?master-of-words', that attempt to promote a secret and most elite type of methods only known to certain players of a certain status.  Of course you have to join that elite circle for a monthly fee, etc.  IMO and in my experience, investigation and discussion with others, there is no such ?secret and known methods those type of people are talking about and discussing within their paid membership circle.  They are discussing nothing more than we do except they all claim to be professional, skilled, and expert gamblers usually making a great living from their daily or semi daily casino winning sessions with their extensive and elite knowledge of the game(s), etc.   

But, as said by myself and others on this board about the authors--tricksters--system engineers, etc., if it was actually true, they would all be playing it in casinos around the world, each and every day, making hundreds of millions of dollars.  All the while sipping drinks and without the stress, headaches and attempting to make a few bucks harping their book, system, website, membership, etc.  On and on and on and on.  Same stuff, different day, etc.  But hey--I am wrong--I admit.  I beg your pardon, they made so many millions they are now compelled to share their secrets and elite circle of special friends on their website for a mere $50.00 or $100.00 a month.  Oh yeah, also--that charge is not for them to live on, that is solely your good faith donation to allow you access to the real wealth that awaits you too!

The house advantage represents the long run percentage of the wagered money that will be retained by the casino. It is also called the house edge, the "odds" (i.e., avoid games with bad odds), or just the "percentage" (as in Mario Puzo's Fools Die)."  It exists, realize it and learn it.  Simple, no discussion here, just fuel for your knowledge and vision.  You need to work to get around it, it is not impossible to get a gig going, you just have to know how and use it.  Stop the fallacy and stop believing those idiots and ludicrous things people attempt to get you to subscribe to and believe.  They will only hurt you, period.

Some casino games are pure chance - no amount of skill or strategy can alter the odds. Rock solid.  Know it and believe it.  You are not looking to invent something or Beat-The-Casino, because it cannot (CANNOT in a million years be done) as you only want to ride the roller coaster to the top, cash out and jump off for each session.  That is all.  Because there is one thing that is always there and always will happen in a casino.  That roller coaster you just rode to the top will crest that hill and then drop.  Each and every time!  You just have to figure out where the very top of the hill is each session. 

Players will get "lucky" in the short term, but that is all part of the grand design. Fluctuations in both directions will occur. We call these fluctuations good luck or bad luck depending on the direction of the fluctuation. There is no such thing as luck. It is all mathematics.?  Know it, believe it and design your gig around it.  This is the only way you can win over your long run.  Don't get sucked in by winning $10,000.00 on a streak of 15 Bankers and then becoming the casinos best friend as everyone always does ?subsequently losing that $10k back plus another $20K + of your own money chasing back your lost win.  Just an example but you get my drift, I have written about this plenty. 

You lose what you win and get out of reality costing yourself much more.  Pretty much what the real problem is in most all cases here.  IMO, I want to add.  Of course, self awareness and self criticizing is extremely difficult and extremely hurtful in most all cases, if not impossible.  I will outline a story in brief what about last week with a lady baccarat player I have known for some time.  It may open your eyes, maybe?  But, to stand in front of a mirror and admit certain things about your play is not easy for 99% + of all players.

End of Part #1.

[alrelax]

Part #2:


Part of the problem so many experience is allowing their own personality and non-understanding of the casino influence to take them over at the baccarat table. 

What do I mean?  Well, 3 things come to mind that make this area up. 

1)   Conflict between/within the player and the game.  (Because he starts to lose);
2)   Defiance by the player;
3)   Stance by the player.

As the player wagers and losses he will allow himself to become frustrated and upset.  He loses his money that he has worked hard for, one way or another.  It instills conflict on him and it grows and expands.  As the shoe continues, the diagram is basically what is happening to the player.

[attach=1]

The left side is the start of the shoe and the arrow is the size of your chip stack.  The right side is the path you took playing the shoe or the session.  The top is the level of conflict. 

Next is Defiance.  It is only natural.  What do I mean?  In a heated argument, your partner tells you to sit down.  You stand up and push out your chest.  There is a real example of being defiant.  So at the baccarat table you will show them, oh lord—you throw up you stack of chips to get back everything you just lost or you convince yourself to wager 10 times in a progression as a backup if you lose and all the hands you win you will become whole once again and make some money, etc.   Doesn't turn out that way and you still lose.  You became defiant without even realizing it.

Next is Stance.  It is you posturing yourself to smack the casino.  You know you can bully them and win by the end of the shoe, or the next 10 hands or the next shoe or by the end of the night.  Whatever, but you become a bully because that is what you were taught by your dad to fend off the kids that picked on you in grade school.  Or, in business you stood up to the competition that played games with you or one of many other things similar to those.

Problem is, we are all taught as boys to stand up and take a stance against the things that come at us.  And, that is why subconsciously you will become defiant and take a stance..  You probably don't even realize it.  And yet, it affects you and clouds your vision and hampers almost all your chances to play with a player's advantage of time, patience and waiting for the opportunities that really do exist in baccarat.

You need to understand what happens to yourself at the baccarat table and stop justifying it as gambling.  All you do is cloud your vision and your ability to smack the casino and pounce on it, at the proper times.  It happens to all of us.  Me, you, Asymbac, Gizmo, everyone of us.  Some a lot more than others and others a bit less.  If you can relate to this and understand how it affects you and your abilities at the baccarat table, you are on your way to being able to identify when to press 3 times and let your wager ride for a 15 hand Banker streak and keep pulling down your money and then when it cuts back to the player, you cash out, walk by table, throw the dealer a hundred bucks and laugh as you leave.  And, you don't have that desire to stay and triple that $10k you just won, which would probably turn to disaster anyways, as an example as to what advantage you can allow yourself to have and how it will help you win this game.

End of Part #2.

[Gizmotron]

Good one about part 2. I once referred to the need to fly the plane on instruments. That's where when the plane goes into clouds you must ignore what you feel and use the data coming from the instruments to tell you what is happening. The same goes for dealing with downturns in your sessions. So great job describing it. I never looked at it as a form of just willing it into being. It's true too. People really just barge ahead with brute force.

[alrelax]

Thanks Mark,  I have at least another 3 parts to post.

[alrelax]

Part #3.

Like I said, "Pure Reality".  Remember, what happens or will happen in front of you at the live baccarat table, may not have happened before in your play or remembrance.  And then again, it very well might have happened numerous times. 

Waiting for something and then watching it unfold, then placing your wagers will get you in on the tail end and you have the tendency to win a couple and then lose a whole bunch for all the other reasons I have mentioned in Part #2.  The long opportunistic sections of baccarat events, such as 10-16 hand streaks of the same side or perhaps 12 -20 hand alternating 'chop-chops' or maybe a section of 8 -12 hand doubles or pairs.  They do happen, they will happen, although not nearly as frequent as the very short lasting events within any section of the shoe. 

Years ago, prior to 2005, whenever there was a long run of any type of opportunistic event, the players would generally be all together and cleaning out the dealer's rack, almost every time.  However, these days, it is totally the opposite.  The house is cleaning out the players in the largest majority of the long events, especially at the mini and the midi tables.  I contributed the burst of the internet and the new breed of player subscribing to the 1's, 2's and 3's and then 'cut' events as they believe have to happen and will happen for all the reasons they read on the internet with the message boards, the systems, the authors, the books and the elite circle of membership forums, etc., preach. 

Stop trying to replicate what has happened or what you have experienced and desire to happen again, because of how it is unfolding there in front of you.  You need to concentrate on what is happening and be in a different frame-of-mind than what the majority of the internet, the systems authors, or that ludicrous and laughable elitism circle of paid website membership pro gamblers are harping on with everything they all do in common.  Which is, some form of strategic baccarat.  Analyzing what is happening to all their preached statistics and pre-set scheduled wagers that should work, etc.  The bottom line they are all doing, is attempting to fit the shoe they are gambling on, into statistical data for the game.  The data is not necessarily wrong or corrupted, I never said that it was.  I am saying and I will say it forever, is that the shoe you are sitting in front of, is such a tiny and minute fraction of the tiniest part of a fraction of one percent of the overall statistical picture; that shoe has no compelling reason to fit into the beliefs of a bunch of internet authors and website owners.  I hope you understand!

Here, let me literally spell it out.  I know that Gizmo and players like Asymbac understand, but I want to make myself perfectly clear.  That shoe you sit down to, might just make all alternating 'chop-chops' or doubles/pairs or have a streak of 18 Bankers followed immediately by a 21 player streak.  And if not such rare events, how about something along the lines of 7 Bankers, followed by 7 Players, followed by 6 pairs of both bankers and players, followed by 8 Bankers and then 9 Players, etc.  Or, it might be like the highest majority of all other shoes, 1's and 2's and a few 3's and 4's and possibly one 5.  All with no order or event configuration that could be reasonably figured out.  Sure. Then, 'BOOM'—all of a sudden the 18 Banker streak happened.  And while I was there with $400, parlaying my initial win to $800 and then to $1,600.00, I pulled down another 15 wins of $1,600.00 each and lost the last one when it finally cut back to the player.  As the entire table continually wagered for the player because it was never supposed to do what it just did.  Has this happened to me in the past?  Yes it has.  Has it happened within every session?  No, not by far.  Do I continually expect such strong or rare events to happen?  No I do not.  Am I aware they can happen?  Yes, I certainly am.  Is wagering on such rare or special events the way I make money on this game?  Yes and no.  Yes, because the big money is easy to make without argument when such great events do happen.  But, reality is—other money can be made with the average and regular events that do often occur within 'sections' of the shoe, such as I have defined in many other posts.  And, reality of the game is that within a shoe, the presentments if split up into 'sections' will allow the player to be a lot clearer and a lot more conscious of the presentments occurring rather than looking at hand 1-10 when hand 60-70 is happening, etc.

If you think playing the 'cut' after it made a couple of 1's and a couple of 2's, will produce a solid wager that will prevail on a consistent 51% chance or better, you are so far misled and under a fallacy located in 'Dreamsville', it is not even funny.  For, you will of course win a few but the amount you will lose—will amount to more than you win on any certain event in baccarat.  But the most important thing I have tried to explain, is your lost opportunity to actually wager and be in on the great events that do take place at the baccarat table.  And that my friend is where the real money is at. 

Here is a typical example and I will load a picture or two of some actual casino baccarat score boards where I was sitting and yes, I capitalized on those runs and those F-7's, those beautiful F-7's with $35.00 to $50.00 on them for that 40:1 pay back.  Can you make $10k or $15k with a $500 to $1,000 buy-in within a shoe?  Yes you can.  Can you do it by wagering on those few wagers for the 'cut' on the Banker or the Player as those internet experts suggest as I outlined in the 3rd paragraph above here?  No, you cannot.  Period.  Here is an example:  Took off in the first half of the shoe which produced fairly strong banker side, everyone stayed on the 1's and 2's.  Then in the second half 10 Bankers came out with 3 Fortune 7's within those 10 Banker hands.  No one believed what was happening and verbally said it will not last and it could not last.  Even when players were throwing up their wagers on the Banker side, they were chastised and ridiculed by their partners, family or friends there.  They all continually lost every hand wagering for the Players side that 'just had to come out the next hand to start the catch up', etc., etc.  The other thing that sticks out and was a 'key trigger' as well as one of those dreaded, 'You played it the other way and you failed to see the opportunity coming' events.  Which was, the unwritten 'rule of 10' when there is a strong shoe.  The other players were so convinced the players side would do exactly what the bankers side did--they lost thousands and thousands of dollars on their deduced down, follow the statistical outcomes they are acclimated to, etc.  The bankers side took off, made 10 straight banks with 3 F-7's, while all other people said out loud, it would not happen.  There is a unwritten 'rule of + - 10' that usually holds pretty much true on a strong shoe.  Meaning, the deficient side will normally, more times than not, attempt a catch up and wind up at the end, within less than 10 hands or even possible equaled out exactly.  And, you know what in this particular shoe?  If the bankers did not go 'BOOM' with the streak of 10 and 3 F-7's, the shoe probably would have been pretty close if not equal at the very end.   But, baccarat just does not follow what it should or what you think it will because  of the numbers and the statistics, superstitions, or a half dozen or more other things, etc. 

Here is a picture of what I am talking about.  Those are events and opportunities that exist:

[attach=1]


Clear mind—complete concentration—stop listening to those types of players pointing at the score board when one side gets strong with every reason as to why it cannot last or produce a bias, etc.  IMO, when one side gets strong through continued naturals or the one side is continually reduced and the opposite side is continually increased to the win, that is a huge sign of an opportunistic event brewing and happening. 

You just have to be able to identify what is happening—no matter what it is. 

But, to go to the casino and wager for a certain outcome, consistently and religiously hoping the shoe will produce the hands that match your wagers, because you are betting with the majority of the statistical outcomes after being schooled, taught or read something written by 'so and so' author of a system or from within the elitism circle of professional baccarat players on a website that charges a monthly fee to be part of, you will lose your money after a while and never have a real shot at what is very possible to realize in baccarat.  I promise you that.

End of Part #3.

[alrelax]

Part #4.

Actual playing of baccarat.  Wagering as well as some of the thought, frame-of-mind. 

But, when I started this thread, I have the one base for it all.  REALITY!  To me, that is more important and of greater paramount than anything else in baccarat.  And, reality to me—means what is happening there in front of me with the shoe presentment.  Not yesterday's shoe or results, not last week's, not the series of shoes where I won $ 'XYZ' or might have lost $ 'XYZ', etc., etc.  It is the instant shoe with the instant 'section' that is happening.  That to me is pure reality. 

Take all your 'statistics', all your 'testing,' all of your 'should be', 'could be', 'probably will happen' and also the, 'it has to be'—take it all and check it at the darn door when you come through the metal detectors, past the security guards and into the table games section.  There is no place for it, none whatsoever.  Because all it will do, is cause you to win a bit and lose a heck of a lot more chasing back your win that you gave back or the win that you are so frustrated that never came. 

How do I wager and what kind of procedure do I use?  Well, that could be a bit complicated as explaining every situation here is not practical, but I will give you the basics of what is reality for me in baccarat wagering. 

First off, it might be too long for some but for those serious players that truly know you learn from others and you don't know everything, you would have to read two threads I have in written and posted within my Blog section, 'Alrelax's Blog' on this board:

1)    Application & Realization:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/application-and-realization/msg61142/#msg61142

2)    Expectations & Reality:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/expectations-reality/

I do use flat betting a bit.  But I am much in favor of positive progressions of 1-3-2-6 and/or 1-3-2-4.  I also do 3-4-5's or 6-10-14's units when I get on a roll. 

I do my own thing called my "1 + 4 Side Parlay" which I will explain below that is totally separate from my regular wagering.  Very important to keep it separate and it is played out of strictly win money. 

Other than those, I really do believe in 'pouncing on it' when I am able to identify and get into an opportunistic event.  Nothing better for me, my reality. 

I do not get involved in all wagers or every hand.  No way.  Never.  I strive to identify the 'sections' of the shoe as I have talked about and I have written about that as well.  That to me is highly of importance, way up there in order to have the vision and any kind of hope to make money when I play.  It works for me a lot. 

Identify, pounce on it, limit yourself and have definitive safeguards that you abide by and controls your play.  There is NO OTHER WAY to stay in reality in this game, seriously! 

And, I do not believe in a stop-loss.  Sorry, I just do not subscribe to that one.  I risk my complete buy-in amount and if I lose, I lose it all.  But I do win and I win a lot of sessions.  So I do have a 'stop-play' which is governed always, 100% of the time, by my win amount I am wagering and continuing to win.  It is governed solely by my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management System and that is solid for 99% of all my play.  No matter the buy-in amount which will vary, depending on where I am at, local or one of the larger gambling jurisdictions, etc. 

I use it to enhance, protect and allow myself to truly obtain the maximum win I can, with no risk of giving back all of my win money and going on "tilt", the way the greatest majority of all baccarat players do. 

I let me win money fuel my pursuit.  When my win money gets down to 2/3rd's of what it was when I switched over to my 1/3rd M.M. System, I stop.  There are infrequent times I will use a second 1/3rd out of the remaining 2/3rd's I still have, but that is not regular and every time by any means.  I also have put back my buy-in into the locked up pocket.  I have written about this and it is within my Blog if you are not familiar with it. 

I would only rise up a level/plateau in wagering when I am winning.  Infrequently I will employ a 2 wager negative progression, but not always.  If I can't win flat betting to get whole, it isn't working for me that session.  I rather leave and call it a night.  Others will repeatedly buy in again and again all night and the highest majority of times they will continue to lose no matter how they wager.  When the section I am winning is giving me more chips than the ones I lost and I get triple or so my buy-in, I will then switch to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd M.M. System and maintain my wagering and session length according to that.  Period. 

While I am on that system, I will also have a few dedicated wagers and if I won them, I set aside a certain amount for my "1 + 4 Side Parlay" wager.  I normally put aside enough to have four attempts at pulling it off.  I do more than 50% of the times.  Here is one example of my "1 + 4 Side Parlay" wager.  I will make up some numbers here.  Say, my buy-in was $1,000.00 and I won $3,000.00.  I will do the following, rigorously and religiously.    Put my $1,000.00 back in my locked-up pocket and it will not come out again.  I will play with $1,000.00 (1/3rd of the win) and lock up another $1,000.00 and put $1,000.00 in a separate pocket for a possible (not always) re-buy in if I lose and decide to play further based on other factors.  Then say I won two wagers for $400.00 each down the road a bit.  I will use that $800.00 for 4 attempts at $200.00 each for my "1 + 4 Side Parlay" wagering.  I give myself 4 chances on that.  Wager whatever I would normally beside the "1 + 4 Side Parlay" and the $200.00 for the "1 + 4" wagering.  If I win the wager my next "1 + 4" Wager would be $800.00, the next $1,600.00 and the last one $3,200.00.  Hence the four parlays.  That is in and above a regular wager.  I also very seldom do not wager the 4 parlay wagers with the "1 + 4" on a consecutive wagering style at all.  I might spread it out over 10 or 20 hands, etc.  But I give myself 4 chances to pull off the $6,400.00 win off that original $800.00 of win money, which I divided up into the 4 chances of $200.00 each. 

What I attempt to do is get myself to the point, that my buy-in is returned (out of risk 100%) and have a nice 2/3rd's of my original win, already locked up.  I want to play on the remaining 1/3rd, which is all casino money.  I don't care (just a figure of speech) if I lose.  I walk if I lost the 1/3rd, as I do 99% of the time.  I still won, screw them, I tried a bit more just to satisfy that devil inside of me because I might win $50k or whatever, all while all the other players are continuously risking their buy-in, money in reserve they have as well as their win money, I am not.   That is reality my friend!

My confidence and psychological departments are in check and I will be strong.  But, I stay conscious of the time to stop by my 1/3rd being giving back.  If I won larger and greater in and above the 1/3rd once again, I will divide it up a second time.  Been there and done all that giving back the win money and going on tilt, way too many times.  I am not doing it ever again.  I do not compromise my locked up money or the returned buy-in money once I get to those points, never.  All those theories about coming around again, getting whole, getting your win money back if you lost, buy in repeatedly and knowing you can win it back, it is all fallacy and Dreamsville, you are in not in reality when you do all that!  It does not work that way.  Been there and done all that as I said.  Those things are not pretty, not fun, gut wrenching and they plain suck!  You do them and play that way, not me, not for many years! 

Call it what you want, but it is imperative you have a 'stop-play' or some kind of safeguard that will allow you to get up, cash out and leave without the 'itchy urge', that you left the table with because you lost your win money that was rightfully yours to take home from the casino.  Losing that win money has cost almost every baccarat player numerous times greater funds that he bought back in with to get that back.  I see it each and every time I go tot the casinos.  It is an endless, vicious, savage, violent, dangerous, ruthless and mean cycle that will tear you up.  That is 100% reality!

You can actually win at baccarat and you can actually do rather well, if you can control your frame-of-mind, your vision and stay in reality, all IMO.  Almost no one I talk with has any kind of plan or system other than reading something on the internet or taking a course and listening to a bunch of babble about wagering on the repeat after such and such or wagering on any other event after something else happened.  If you can realize what is happening and understand what I said within this part about money management, there is no reason you cannot employ safeguards to protect your win money or only lose your buy in.   To me, that is reality.  If you are looking for a guarantee because Doctor Baccarat or some elite circle of paid membership professional message board members say they played for 20 years and if you wager according to their strategically discovered events that will happen, that is not reality, that is trapping yourself in fantasy land, AKA: Dreamsville.

End of Part #4.

[soxfan]

I disagree, testing is very important if you are a serious cat. testing a significant number of shoe shows how much you can earn on average. And, more important, it can show you the severity of drawdown that you will buck up against. Most cats lose cuz they don[t have the balls or bankroll and don't have the stomach to handle the swings. I recently tested a style, by hand bucking up against 1000 shoe on the party poker live casino site. My gross profit was 2240 units but on three occasion I got clipped for drawdown of just over 500 units, hey hey.

[Gizmotron]

Take all your 'statistics', all your 'testing,' all of your 'should be', 'could be', 'probably will happen' and also the, 'it has to be'—take it all and check it at the darn door when you come through the metal detectors, past the security guards and into the table games section.  There is no place for it, none whatsoever.  Because all it will do, is cause you to win a bit and lose a heck of a lot more chasing back your win that you gave back or the win that you are so frustrated that never came. 

I agree. Just because someone walked in the door does not mean that their pet sequence will be occurring. Anything, any sequence, will more than likely be working. Anyone's real job is to find out what the actual conditions are.

I disagree, testing is very important if you are a serious cat. testing a significant number of shoe shows how much you can earn on average. And, more important, it can show you the severity of drawdown that you will buck up against. Most cats lose cuz they don[t have the balls or bankroll and don't have the stomach to handle the swings. I recently tested a style, by hand bucking up against 1000 shoe on the party poker live casino site. My gross profit was 2240 units but on three occasion I got clipped for drawdown of just over 500 units, hey hey.

I agree. You must practice seeing what is happening right now. You must practice responding to your effectiveness. You must become adept at being agile to change. All theses skills must be known. You must know your own skill set. You must know how to hang on to your bankroll. You can't take your past practice efforts and expect to capitalize on finding an exact same sequence later, when it is not practice anymore but real. But you can take your acquired skill and use it when it is real. In fact practice, if done correctly, can help you stay focused when you are really at the casino with your bankroll. You practice staying focused too. I practice just to see if I can win every time. Golfers practice, marksman practice, astronauts practice, teenage boys practice.... yikes.

[alrelax]

I disagree, testing is very important if you are a serious cat. testing a significant number of shoe shows how much you can earn on average. And, more important, it can show you the severity of drawdown that you will buck up against. Most cats lose cuz they don[t have the balls or bankroll and don't have the stomach to handle the swings. I recently tested a style, by hand bucking up against 1000 shoe on the party poker live casino site. My gross profit was 2240 units but on three occasion I got clipped for drawdown of just over 500 units, hey hey.

You misunderstood the whole point of this whole thread. 

Which is reality.  Reality at the table.

And sir, to me--reality at the table is the 80 or 160 or possibly 240 hands will not replicate your testing of thousands and thousands thousand of hands and shoes.  It is the same as a 5 mile section of an interstate highway system and speeding.  You can easily speed for a mile or two and almost always get away with it.  But go ahead and speed for the entire length of the interstate within a state and see what will probably happen.  Same, same, same. 

And, reality at the table will not follow on any consistent basis with regularity at 51% or above, your testing results.  What order nad opportunity your testing results produce isl fine and good.  Reality is, those will not be produced for 1 or 3 or 5 or 6 shoes in the casino.

As far as l your units and bank roll, all good.  Yes, large bank roll is need for swings.  However, playing $300 to $1,000 a hand, 500 units will be around $250,000.00 @ $500 a hand.  Even in the rural Midwest where I play, almost all bac players are at $100.00 to  $750.00 a hand as a mean average.  Different players have different bank rolls.  I stated what I play most of the time and my buy-in is roughly $500 to $1,500.00 as a mean average for the local visit to the casino for a shoe or two or three.  I do extremely well because  of my money management system.  Others do not because  they have zero self control, no M.M. Systems and as well,  they have a fallacy of winning hundreds of thousands of dollars with the 'cut', or looking at the board and since it made all 3's for half the shoe, they point to it and say, "It never went past three" and stack it up and then 6 or 7 more repeats come out.  That is what I am talking about. 

But all aside, as far as testing and copying that for a few shoes, to me, that is laughable.  But since you win millions like that, I have to worship you sir!  You are the exception to the rule, kind of like Bugsy Siegel! Bugsy will tell you, it was a great ride but when I sat down to watch the movie and wait for my buddies, the lights went out.

[Sputnik]

I disagree, testing is very important if you are a serious cat. testing a significant number of shoe shows how much you can earn on average. And, more important, it can show you the severity of drawdown that you will buck up against. Most cats lose cuz they don[t have the balls or bankroll and don't have the stomach to handle the swings. I recently tested a style, by hand bucking up against 1000 shoe on the party poker live casino site. My gross profit was 2240 units but on three occasion I got clipped for drawdown of just over 500 units, hey hey.

I agree ...

Cheers

[21 Aces]

With thousands of hours of play with some of the best of the best, I swear to F I have zero idea what some on here are talking about.  A baccarat shoe is unique in it's own way, yet contains a series of familiar segments that on average tend to play out one way more than another and may be found inside many other shoes.  You could simulate that through infinity time and then just be playing a baccarat shoe where that formation or series of formations all break the other way versus what simulations advise.

[alrelax]

With thousands of hours of play with some of the best of the best, I swear to F I have zero idea what some on here are talking about.  A baccarat shoe is unique in it's own way, yet contains a series of familiar segments that on average tend to play out one way more than another and may be found inside many other shoes.  You could simulate that through infinity time and then just be playing a baccarat shoe where that formation or series of formations all break the other way versus what simulations advise.

1,000,000 percent to the 100th million trillion billion quadrillion power or as my 5 year called me up the other day and said, "Daddy we learned what infinity is, it is 01010101010101010101010101010101010101010, and you never stop".

That is the same as what can happen today at the casino from a shoe as compared to other shoes in testing.  Etc.

Of course people and most all players get sucked in, because  when they play they do repeat themselves in certain sections and at certain times and hence--everyone attempting to find the secret holy-grail whether it is practicing thousands of shoes or wagering for the 'cut' after the 40th hand because  the shoe never made a 4th one yet. 

And the story continues.

My thread was about reality.  Reality at the baccarat table in a live casino.

[21 Aces]

- Make big bank outside.
- Bring big bank inside.
- Play as strong and tight as you can inside, and make adjustments.  Bet size is an important adjustment where you push your play through situations.  I can not believe how we would play this game with serious 7 or 8 figures in the bank.  Then commensurate stupidity comes more by choice than necessity.

As mentioned testing will illustrate performance results as described, but we should be prepared for storms of all sizes including perfect storms.  A quality house typically won't care what a player does in terms of bet selection OR size and when as long as limits or agreed upon limits are maintained.  Last night I spent some time walking through a strategy that a dealer sees players doing where they load up on negative progression intentionally. If you are a tight player with strong skills, you could probably do it successfully, but there may be times where you stop out.  Steep enough negative progression can hit limits quickly.

[Gizmotron]

... I have zero idea what some on here are talking about.  A baccarat shoe is unique in it's own way, yet contains a series of familiar segments that on average tend to play out one way more than another and may be found inside many other shoes. 

You guys that play Blackjack or Baccarat have one data stream at a time. In Roulette, the way I play, I have 4 data streams that contain 3 sets for each as apposed to the 50/50 games that only have 2 options. In that binary you look for characteristics of randomness, even if you don't relate to the changes that occur in that way. But you talk about it anyway. You see clusters of 1's, (singles) 2's, (doubles) or 3's, (triples). You see streaks of B's or streaks of P's. It's all the same. You are "reading randomness" in your own ways. So you devise strategies to attack opportunities that appear to be continuing. It's very simple. I just like Roulette because of the many data strings at the same time. If one stream is chaotic, another stream might be miraculous. In this case more is better. But in all that I never expect to see an exact type of characteristic. The Global Effect is either happening or it is not. It's very easy to detect. You just have to look for it. The extremely rare Elegant Pattern shows up about every four years. You owe it to yourself to be looking for it. It's like finding a bag of gold. But if you don't know to look for it you will never see it when it happens. Perhaps being blinded by math is an acceptable excuse for that.