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To FLAT-BET or NOT to FLAT-BET?

Started by iplayforaliving, April 10, 2014, 01:50:42 PM

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iplayforaliving

An excellent baccarat method should have a very good progression to withstand the "boom" and "bust" of a baccarat game. Because of this, I do not recommend flat-betting. Why? TIME is the biggest factor. Whenever you play a baccarat game, the faster you hit your "profit goal," the better your chance of making money.

No matter how many decks are there in a baccarat shoe, you will only have 3-4 hits of winning plays on the average at the end of the game. It's up to you now how you are going to take advantage of these average hits.

To Flat-bet or Not to Flat-bet?

Let's look at the following scenarios you will encounter on your baccarat games.

Scenario #1: Say you hit a 4-in-a-row winning plays. Your win-loss sheet looks like this – WWWW. Using flat-bet, you're up +4 units into the game. This is a good profit but not the best profit. Why? You were not able to take advantage of your winning hands. These consecutive winning hands will only appear once and rarely twice on the entire baccarat shoe. An "aggressive but reckless" baccarat player will make a +15 unit profit given this same scenario with outmost disregard on the possibility of busting the 4th play leaving him at a -1 unit disadvantage should his 4th bet got busted. But a more technical player like me will settle for a +9 unit profit with the consideration of protecting my +7 unit profit should I bust my 4th bet leaving me still with a +5 unit advantage. Got my point?

Now, the scenarios below are still winnable situations. However, a flat-bet progression could not maximize these situations.

Scenario #2: Say your win-loss sheet is like this – LWLWLW. Using flat-bet, you lose nothing but you gain nothing also. These win-loss events are very common in a baccarat game and these can be maximized to your advantage using a progression.

Scenario #3: Say your win-loss sheet is like this – LLWLLWLLW. With flat-bet, you're in a -3 unit hole. But this is still a winnable situation only if a progression is involved. A very good progression and strategy could still give you between +1 to +3 units profit.

Scenario #4: Say your win-loss sheet is like this – LLL. You "hit the wall" early in the game. To recover from this hole using flat-bet, you need to win 3 consecutive plays. But it's only a "break-even" at this point. But, is this really a break-even? Remember, there's a 5% commission on Banker bets. This adds to your woes. So, technically, you need 3-4 consecutive bets to breakeven. To profit a +1 unit, you need 4-5 consecutive winning plays. But a very good progression will only require 3 consecutive winning plays to profit +4 units. See the difference?

If you're playing baccarat for a living like me, time is of an essence. For me, "Time lost is money lost." The less time you achieve your profit goal, the greater your chance of making money. Also, by  achieving your profit goal in less time, you conserve your energy to stay competitive for another baccarat game. Like I said, baccarat is mentally challenging. You need to stay sharp on your entire baccarat session so the way you conserve your mental & physical energy is important.

I have nothing against flat-bettors because I also used flat-bet as a progression during my early years of playing. However, I found it too time & energy consuming, especially if you hit a downswing early on the game, and too limiting to use (read scenarios #2-4).

So if you're thinking professionally playing baccarat for a living, I DO NOT recommend flat-betting.
iPlayForALiving
"Make Money Anytime, Anywhere!"