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[alrelax]

Seriously, Baccarat.  BetSelection.  Let's Talk & Discuss Players and Wagering

You know, I do a lot of thinking.  As if you guys did not already know that. 

First of all, I apologize for the little bit of a shakeup that happened when I took over.  SoxFan, Jimske, Xander and of course Mr. J,/Roulette Ghost whom was not banned but left because he detests myself and takes up a clear alliance with the other three X Members I mentioned.  Then there is Mark/Gizmtron whom I go back with a ways.  I attempted to make up and start over with Mark but Mark's refusal was clear and concise.  Mark has pushed me into the corner numerous times, I have learned from those times and I have appreciated most of it as well.  But the latest round was just not conducive to moving forward and really getting down to brass tacks and stopping the needless brew haha and the senseless alliance with the 3 or 4 other one liner, repetitive, drama driven and offending more than not, type of members that were actually moderated and banned by myself.  I checked on Mark yesterday through email and made sure he was okay, I am talking about medication and food wise.  He said he was and really, that is all I can do at this point. 

Okay, with that said, you know the message boards on the internet are similar to a huge juicy burger!  A really thick, juicy, great looking burger with all the trimmings shoved in front of your face.  In a way, too good to be true.  In other ways, right there for the taking!  Yet, at other times, right there and all you can do or will do is, dwell upon it and envision picking it up and sinking your teeth into it, nothing else. 

I was at the casino last night.  Some people tagging along with their family or friends that play baccarat, they stand there on the players shoulders as well as mine.  They are pointing and pointing and pointing to the scoreboard.  Most are Asian and they talk in 80% their native languages and about 20% or even less English.  I do understand about 50-60% of what they are saying in their native languages because of my wife or past relationships with other people, Laos, Viet, Cambodian, Korean, etc.  But they all repeatedly stand there and voice their thoughts, opinions and suggestions as to what to wager and why.  Comical!  Actually it is in many ways! 

Verbally without hesitation saying, "Banker, Banker, Banker" or "Player, Player, Player" or "Tie, Tie, Tie line", and on and so forth.  If they are right, the repeat once again with louder and more conviction, much more.  If they were wrong, they really say nothing or smirk their lips or shake their heads side to side in the slightest motion. 

The wholehearted beliefs.  Something went wrong!  Not, it was hopeful thinking or a possibility or anything along those lines.  You can see the frustration, the aggravation, the tension and the gut stabbing feelings they just received from the shoe because they believed in something they honestly were convinced had to happen.  SO thick and so visible, no mistaken what just went down, hand after hand after hand. 

Then the "suck in" comes!  You stop wagering on what you were believing in or you pull down to the other side, that another person or player expressed a huge amount of confidence in.  And what is the kicker here, almost every single time you do just that, you lose or would have won if you only pursued your original way of thinking, etc.  Ask any dealer that you honestly have known for some time, they deal more than any of us actually plays, they will tell you the exact same thing.  Then, as if that move was not enough, the second round comes.  You switch and go back to whatever it was you were winning at prior to pulling down or switching because of someone else and you lose once again!  Happens 8 or 9 times out of every 10 times or so you will do it. 

You know, in all actuality anything can or might not work!  The problem is, becomes the belief in what just won, not the side, but the reason you were governed.  You begin to believe in systematic, mathematical outcomes you figured out and many other types of labeling to define the reason something just happened.  Such as the cut to the opposite side, or continuance or dies off after a natural win or the tie line on the Bead Plate made 2 or 3 ties on the same line.  Or the ever popular 3's and 4's and cut to the opposite side.  Many more, those are just a few examples I wanted to throw out there.  But every shoe, every baccarat game, the players are at it, with the same reasons, the same thoughts, the same deducing down why something will win or not win.  All because of what the shoe previously did or did not do.  These players are defeating themselves!  Rather than subscribe to or recognize sections with turning points, they look for and believe in systematic and blanket scheduling that will doom them and 100% over take their way of wagering one way or another.

As far as what I read on the internet, the stop losses, draw downs and how a player will calculate how much they can stand to lose or when they will stop when they are winning.  Seriously??  Really?

In almost every case you will screw yourself.  Plain and simple.  You have to stop that way of thinking!  You need to have the frame of mind, what you buy in with is pure risk capital.  Same as a business.   You will invest and spend the initial money and you might realize profit or not.  More risk capital might be required as well.  Stop the thought of losing a little but winning a lot.  Because all you will do is lose a lot of littles or you will sacrifice any nice wins and become entrapped in a mean and destructive circle you do not want to be within! 

Stop the, beat the game, or beat the casino mentality.  It is totally messing up your beliefs and your frame of mind.  It plays on you to have the upper hand and convinces you, that you call all the shots and you cannot.  What you do to yourself is, you are not allowing yourself to recognize what is happening and take advantage of the opportunity within a section or sections of the shoe.  Each section is so different in every way from the next one that will follow, you become fooled by the most dangerous thing the casino has going for it, RANDOMNESS. 

If you deduce down the shoe into sections with turning points and realize that there are two things, two types of events.  One, the actual live one that is happening within the section you recognize and at times you may not see it and yet, at other times you will see it with considerable force.  Second, is the one that actually adds the fuel to fool you by tricking you about what randomness actually is.  The past events and sections of the shoe will always appear less than random, you will be able to match them to or against your won system, beliefs and reasoning's involving everything from superstitions to mathematical statistical theory and everything else you read about or subscribe to!  It is as simple as that.  All you are doing is stopping yourself from actually being able to determine some parts of the randomness that is live and the past section(s) already out on the scoreboard with your back fitted explanation of your deluded mind. 

There are only those two things in reality as to how your mind makes its decision as to what to wager for or against in baccarat.  It take an inordinate amount of courage to confront yourself, realize and accept your limitations and recognize what is actually happening as it is happening.  Because randomness is about probability mixed heavily with skepticism, not mathematical results or wager scheduling of any type whatsoever that you believe will fit into a shoe and repeatedly win your wagers you are placing.

 

[Lungyeh]

Glen, on the matter of your 1-3-2-6 bet strategy the 1x is how many percent of your session bankroll?

Just thinking that sometimes you write about a strategy as a matter of course but from the outside looking in certain key considerations are not discussed.

My 2 cebts worth. Thanks

[alrelax]

Glen, on the matter of your 1-3-2-6 bet strategy the 1x is how many percent of your session bankroll?

Just thinking that sometimes you write about a strategy as a matter of course but from the outside looking in certain key considerations are not discussed.

My 2 cebts worth. Thanks

And I try my best to generalize most of the time.  It is almost impossible to stick with any one type of wagering as times have their advantages as well as disadvantages with a set wager. 

I am not one to consistently wager a certain bet, whether that is a flat bet amount, a 1-3-2-6 of consistency or my (1 + 4 Side Parlay) wager.  Even the (1 + 4) parlay will vary in base amount, meaning the '1st' (first) wagered amount.

As well, I do not proportion my wagers as a percentage to my buy-in or my risk money at stake, at least to a certain percentage. 

I don't think I would risk more than 10% of my chips sitting in front of me that was ear marked for wagering on a single wager.  Probably a bit less, but I don't generally do the so often quoted 1% wager, etc. 

In the 1-3-2-6 progression, the most I would have tied up out of my risk money would be 2 units anyway. 

I am more for the win wager and then set that aside for a specific purpose such as a couple 1-3-2-6's or some 1 + 4 Side Parlay attempts. 

[alrelax]

Great question Lungyeh brought up, too bad not more input from other experienced players and their experiences, etc. 

[alrelax]

After reading this once again, I see the importance for the definition of the 'how much' is at risk for the 1st unit in the positive progression.

Two things.  1) I that I do not wager every single hand like many do or desire to do.  2)  Say if I have $1,000.00 in chips for the buy in, the first wager might be as high as $150.00, lots of time $50.00 or $75.00.  Say I had $4,000.00 is chips, might not be four times as high, would probably be $75.00 to $250.00. 

I rather see how it goes and win more by parlay/positive progressions rather than the attempt to do it flat betting or a longer period of time by smaller units. 

"It takes an inordinate amount of courage to confront yourself, realize and accept your limitations and recognize what is actually happening as it is happening.  Because randomness is about probability mixed heavily with skepticism, not mathematical results or wager scheduling of any type whatsoever that you believe will fit into a shoe and repeatedly win your wagers you are placing."