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[Jimske]

Normally I play alone. It would upset me no end to share a table with an anti trend believer when the trends are so strong and that guy bets the other way early to end the trend! It psychologically affects the rest who wants to bet and they could reduce their bets or abstain altogether when in effect one should be making a killing!

LOL.  That's funny.  Sometimes it happens when I am the only one losing on the table.  Makes you feel kind of stupid.  Sometimes it happens when I am the only one winning on the table.  Genius!  LOL.  As HBS mentioned sometimes everybody is winning yet the placements are varied!

Easier said than done but you got to play your own game and can't let other punters get to you. 

[Jimske]

Give me a trend like this any time and I will take them casinos to the cleaners.

Sure.  I would win ALL those shoes you posted!  The reason is they all have a certain consistency.  Shoes that maintain consistency are pretty easy but most shoes don't maintain that consistent "trend." 

Take them to the cleaners?  See how easy it is!  The problem there is one's betting style.  That last shoe you keep on betting up and take it to the "cleaners."  Maybe even break the bank by betting table max hand after hand - LMAO.  But what about the other shoes, the majority of shoes, when you jump on that trend with those big bets and you lose time after time?  Too bad we can't see the future, huh?

Most players I see are playing like you intimate.  They're are trying to make that kill and they do from time to time but the other side of the balance sheet is when they try and fail.  It all balances out and as we all should know by now that it balances out in favor of the casino!

Enter MM.  Tight game or big prog we better be in control and have a better betting plan than hoping to make a kill.  So if you have a betting style that is consistent your wins will be more moderate - so will your losses.  You cannot kick yourself after the fact wishing you had done this or that!

The question you raise, BL, whether to follow trend or not is, IMO, relative.  So Gr8, for example, will likely make few bets on that last shoe while he is waiting for his "favorite" pattern or his virtual losses.  Is that wrong?  No, because he is playing a consistent game.  Next shoe where others might get hurt he may very well profit.  Me?  I would make a lot of bets and do very well on those shoes but wouldn't take the casino to the cleaners because my bets are moderate.  Sure, I would attempt to take advantage with bigger bets but . . . could easily fall short.  Next shoe with little consistency I could easily lose or maybe, if I am lucky go nowhere.  You see?  It's all relative.

[Charlotte]

I am a new user

[Gizmotron]

The question you raise, BL, whether to follow trend or not is, IMO, relative.  So Gr8, for example, will likely make few bets on that last shoe while he is waiting for his "favorite" pattern or his virtual losses.  Is that wrong?  No, because he is playing a consistent game.  Next shoe where others might get hurt he may very well profit.  Me?  I would make a lot of bets and do very well on those shoes but wouldn't take the casino to the cleaners because my bets are moderate.  Sure, I would attempt to take advantage with bigger bets but . . . could easily fall short.  Next shoe with little consistency I could easily lose or maybe, if I am lucky go nowhere.  You see?  It's all relative.

I have just, once again, seen evidence of your playing experience and expertise in knowing what works. My meat and potatoes is a slow grind upwards. Any sleeper laying there for 30 spins in a row is just a rare coincidence, like just deserts, and of course must be hammered.

Play like Joey Knish in Rounders (1998)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7NxEj4A1Cg

[Lung Yeh]

Taking them to the cleaners, is just an expression. These days, as the white hair overwhelms the black, yes, the bets are more controlled. The wins are more regular. Thank you all for participating and enjoying. But really, Baccarat players live for trends like these. Those who don't at least make a lot from streaks like these are in the wrong game.

[AsymBacGuy]

Of course casinos will lose most money (so players will win most money) whenever a given trend seems to be endless and I provided a st.upid example elsewhere.

The problem is many bac players want to find a so called endless trend on too many occasions, a thing denied by mathematics and common sense.

Generally speaking, any shoe will provide from zero to one long exploitable trend, 5 shoes will provide from 2 to 5 exploitable trends, 10 shoes will provide from 4 to 10 exploitable trends.

Statistically, some trends are more likely to happen within a short amount of shoes with an accuracy touching the 100% degree.

We'll never know in which part of the shoe or in which shoe this thing will happen, but we know that for certain preordered patterns this thing will happen.

So imo we better rely upon some most likely preordered occurences than on what the actual shoe is producing, especially if the actual shoe is strongly deviating form the "norm".

A luxury we cannot take advantage of at many other 50/50 games, as here there's no way to evaluate a more likely event, being each occurence perfectly 50/50 placed.

as.



 



 



   

[Jimske]

Taking them to the cleaners, is just an expression. These days, as the white hair overwhelms the black, yes, the bets are more controlled. The wins are more regular. Thank you all for participating and enjoying. But really, Baccarat players live for trends like these. Those who don't at least make a lot from streaks like these are in the wrong game.

Pretty sure readers realize "take them to the cleaners" is a figure of speech just meaning to win a lot more than usual.

But how's the making a lot from streaks working out for you?  What exactly do you mean by streaks?  Long B or long P?  Long chop?

Here's a shoe from today that I think is apropos. 

First 18 decisions: B p B pp BB p B pp BB pp BBB.  I lost the 1st decision and then proceeded to win the next 8 bets I made IAR.  So does this constitute a winning streak that I should have made a lot of money on?

Shoe continued pppp BBBB pp BB pp BB p B.  Four 2's IAR ocurr at about the same frequency as an 8 repeat IAR.  So is that a run we should jump on?  The last B made it a 9 IAR, no?

Shoe continued p BB pp BB p BB p BB p.  Isn't the first three 2's IAR and the p a nice run of 2's to 7 IAR?  How about the 212121 at the end.  Isn't that a nice streak of 9 IAR?

These kinds of patterns that extend 6, 7 8 or more are no different than waiting for a long repeat.  So when do you start jumping on them?  How do you know when it is going to happen or are you just going to keep losing that last bet when they don't continue which will balance out any long repeat you might get lucky enough to hit?

Those who don't at least make a lot from streaks like these are in the wrong game.

Ridiculous!

[AsymBacGuy]

Jim, you are losing the possibility to get your Malaysian trip! :-)

as.

[Lung Yeh]

The one thing I realize from participating in this forum is the diversity of ideas and strategies and thier total devotion to their own. I have said it before here and in private messages, I have total respect for that. There are many ways to skin the cat (that's for you Soxfan!) just as there are many ways to make money as there are ways to make love 🙈🙈😎😎.

Your winning streaks would be your Hot Phase, in my parlance Jim. The long 'dragon' streak I posted is really, from an Asian perspective, what Baccarat is all about. From Marina Bay Sands to Genting to Macau. Its not ridiculous Jim. Its just cultural.

Usually, one bets an appropriate amount (up to you) for the streak to continue. You could take some units off as the streak continues (normally). I do a slight increase or maintain. that's my style.

The mantra is 'Dare to win. Scared to lose'. For some of you here who believes that you cannot lose all the time (and hence the negative progression), its 'Dare to lose. Scared to win'. I just don't have the mental capacity and wherewithal to keep on betting in a negative progression to win one unit eventually.

Some of us may be strong swimmers and can and prefer to swim against the tide like the salmon swimming upstream. Old man me will swim with the tide.

Again, it's a diversity of playing strategies. Which unfortunately the casinos exploit...

[Jimske]

@Yung Leh; my comment ridiculous references

Those who don't at least make a lot from streaks like these are in the wrong game.

Lots of ways to skin the cat as you say.  This game is mostly played by Asians.  Where I play Asians are 95%.  Fifteen years ago they were 99.9% where I play and dozens of tables.  Ever wonder who is paying for the chandeliers?  Like I asked:  How's looking for the dragon working out for you?

[Lung Yeh]

There are people who learn from experience and there are those who don't learn from their experiences. The best are those who learn from other people's experiences. Painful as it might be, I do hope I will learn from my harrowing experiences and acknowledge that many have their own experiences to tell. I have recorded significant improvements in performance but will await further validation.

Looking for the dragon? In its lair? No you don't go looking for this mystical creature. Just wait and know when it appears. The best selling Chinese movie in the US is appropriately titled 'Crouching Tiger and Hidden Dragon'. it's a sword fighting movie but I think baccarat 😎😎🙈🙈

Apologies if sometimes sentiments expressed do not take into account all possible points of view.  But really, to the Asian mentality, chandeliars et al, Bacarrat is about witnessing the dragon!!

[Garfield]

So when do you start jumping on them?  How do you know when it is going to happen or are you just going to keep losing that last bet when they don't continue which will balance out any long repeat you might get lucky enough to hit?

When to jump IMO is subjective. How do we know? We will never know UNLESS we try. Based on what? Expectation maybe. Or relevant happening at the moment.

After all, I believed all the players here, mechanical or not, when they put their first bet, it must be based on something. It could be because your system dictate you, your expexctation, your plan, your subjective/objective observation, or just your feeling.

Then, win or lose, you will make a second choice in your mind. Again, it based on something.

That is Jim, IMO is different for each of us. Your question to Lung Yeh, I can only think of it this way. You're asking someone why he/she loves the colour blue. Or a fried rice. Or Billy Joel's song.

Sorry, no offense at all.

I also wondering, why some particular events (i.e long streaks, or long chops, or long 2-2-2) could make a player have a streak of winning one time, and losing streaks at the other time. Do you guys experience it also or it just me?

Also, maybe the holy grail to win in baccarat is this, if not both then one of them. SUBJECTIVENESS and/or RANDOMNESS. Cause they both can't be measured.

What do you think?

[Gizmotron]

The mantra is 'Dare to win. Scared to lose'. For some of you here who believes that you cannot lose all the time (and hence the negative progression), its 'Dare to lose. Scared to win'. I just don't have the mental capacity and wherewithal to keep on betting in a negative progression to win one unit eventually.

But what would you call that one unit if someone could grind out getting it without going deep into the likelihood that being set back for a lot of hands was no longer necessary? If a dragon is an almost perfect coincidence or even a long lasting perfect coincidence, Big Dragon, then what is the low-risk slow grind upward? I once built houses for escaping Hong Kong residents, back during the transition from Britain to China, that lived by traditional superstitions, quite likely validated beliefs for all I know. There must be some kind of a "Tortoise & the Hare" similarity to a grinder versus a crash test dummy of some historical or significant point. If not, then let's give this grinder animal a stereotype.

[soxfan]

I once saw a young Vietnamese cat make 11 bet at the baccarats table, and he lost 200$ despite winning 9 of those 11 bet. I was gonna tell him that using the Holloway parlay style you can lock up profits while still "shooting for the moon". But then I remember the Spike advice to never wise up the chump, hey hey.

[Gizmotron]

 Xcaliforniadealer,

Wow, what a post. There's an example of an elegant pattern, almost perfect, and admitted de facto evidence of a strategic mistake by a large sample of the population. Cool.

You guys and gals seem to have a good grasp on randomness. It's pretty much in your hands now. The only way to expand your knowledge of randomness is to discover it. It has to become your very own comfort zone. Your confidence level can't thrive if you can't be absorbed in its characteristics and its ever changing uniqueness.

Good luck with your school.