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[Sputnik]

I made a error with the chart above - i correct it later - cheers

[ozon]

Sputnik ,many thanks for the explanation of what it means to you, bias.
For now try to apply this standard for dozens of is easier to start with, I think I understand the concept of using this for singles and series for Ec bets.
I use regression for 2 dozens, 4-2-3-4-5-6-7
and 4 approach for first bet if you lose 4 times the first bet Ending sessions, also the end of the session it was only when I win all the steps of regression.
How many levels the regression suggest, I know you are using regression for EC, whether you use all 7 levels?
Do You use waiting for virtualwin after 2 losing bets?

[Sputnik]

Ozon i am stuck with my own observations and can not make up my mind - there is so many things to explore with bias states - i am learning NOR among others like SAP and more.
So i getting a very complex understanding at the moment and have my self a learning curve where i compare others work with my own to reach conclusions.
This means i not have a final solution for you and can say that Regression Up & Pull might work with MDB+ if you tweak and adapt the staking strategy to work with three attempts.

I can't help you at the moment as this would take time and effort from my own development to get more skills and deeper and more complex understanding.

The patch is a process to become full time player and involve a thinking process of old and new things.
Ozon i join a private forum and spend time study there work.

Cheers

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Gentlemen,
It being proven,
by others math expert,
that single vs series,
has a PECULIAR trait,
of hitting "Near-Equilibrium",
AFTER A LONG spin..


the simple single1 VS series2-and-more,
has the tend to near 50/50,
but after very long spin.

Thus our task, is to devise, a strategy,
of AVOIDING-EXTREME-VARIANCE,
that bound to occur,
so that when we attack,
the result will,
hit as equilibrium, as close as possible.
and we win even with FLAT bet.!!!

Sputnik's idea,
of s1/s2/s3+..

has MARVELOUS tendency,
to near equal,
after, 200 to 300spins!!!

IMHO,
the best is BACCARAT,
as the roulette's ZERO,
with 1/37 edge, could make them,
less attractive.


Since the result always go to 50/50,

THEN,
after you see extreme deviation,
you could see the "line-of -the-chart"
[if you make a line chart of the decision result of flat bet 1u],
always POINTING back to the zero-value line!!!

Its like,
you bet that a ,
"in a bag has 50% red, and 50% black ping-pong balls" .
and you wait till which color deviate first,
and then bet the reverse color!

Hope you understand.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

For those INTERESTED,
you do a long list of baccarat,
as below,


p1=single1.
bb2=series2.
ppp3=series3
pppp3[or more]=series3
=================
then bet FLAT,

FOR 123-permutation.
TO HIT.

in rolling basis.


PP2
BB2
PPP3=[2&3.bet next will 1]
B1  hit
P1
B1
PPP3 [BET next, FOR2]
BBBBB3 HIT
PPP3
B1   [BET  next, FOR2]
PPPPPPPPPPP3 HIT
BBBBBBB3 HIT
PP2 [next, bet1]
BB2 LOSE
PPP3[bet1]
BBB3 LOSE

and so on...
you will not surprise to
see after long spin,
will near 50/50 eqilibrium.

ANY QUESTION???

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

since I can't do spreadsheet,
if you kind enough,
after you do,
say, zumma10000 baccarat,
as I mentioned above.
please share them here,
for everyone to see.
Thanks.

[roversi13]

For Beat the Wheel

Are you stating that singles vs series 2 and + are close to equilibrium after 200 /300 spins?
I'd hope so,but my tests confirm the opposite.
I made some tests at "Trente et Quarante",european cards game with two chances,Vig 1%(less than Baccarat) and the behavior of 2 chances versus behavior singles vs series 2 and + were the same;same variances,same difficulties,same losses.

After serie of 2 and series of 3,in your example, you play single.....
But Sputnik march was to play series of 2 and/or series of 3,betting on sleeping singles
Or may be it's exactly the same..no player advantage

My personal experience says that playing patterns is a losing approach,unless you play a very unfrequent pattern that occurs once every 4 or 5 shoes or more
BKR 5 big units,Wingoal 1 unit,flat bet or 1,2,2 losing progression
It's for me the sole approach that pays the vacation for my family once a year,sure not for make a living and stop working

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Roversi13,
thanks for your thought.
========================

Gentlemen,
Let see.


Bet that s1,s2,s3+, will be 123-permutation.

thus...
123=win
321=win
132=win
133=win
313=win
312=win..and so on...
you get the idea

[Sputnik]

I still consider this to be one among the best discovery's in a long time - made this discovery before i join Beat The Casino Forum Board where they have similar ways viewing the bias.
But they use the SAP count and i only use three events where two hit with regularity.

The down side with alternating results when each event hit once, is that it cost us three loses.
The amazing up side is that when we ride a bias we only win or break even during our ride.

Cheers

[AsymBacGuy]

I beg your pardon if I'll use your word "march" in my new blog post. 

as.

[Sputnik]

 I have to write this down quick - AS made my thinking process going - now assume you bet one strong side - then you only need two bets to catch a bias wish make the losing very small if you don't jump on board the train.

Now i also as AS been exploring the idea using 1121121111 and 113131111311 strong side bias where singles overlap from one state or one bias to the other - they overlap and the singles connect them with each other.

Now when the two series chop 2322322333223 you also get a bias but have to skip this particular one when you aim for singles as your base bet or break even with 2 and 3
Assume i get 111211211 3 the sequence end with three and we should not make any bets - we could continue betting singles after the serie of three - but it would be expensive ...

Assume we get 3 then we wait - if we get single we can continue as we have one strong indication singles hit again or continue to hit
But if we get a serie of two - we don't know if we will get series to chop (bias) or if the serie of three repeats - here is worth one single bet for one repeat of a serie of three - let me explain why - assume you lose one single bet and get a serie of two - then you have 32 then only two things can happen - either you get 3 and 2s to chop (bias) or you get one or each even 321.
So you get two possibilitys to emerge after one single bet that would cost you two or three bets continue chasing for not happening - for example you get a serie of 3 and you bet single and get a serie - then you would bet for that serie to repeat and if it does not you are down two bets (attempts) and if we would play the series chop bias 2 and 3s we would make one more bet to catch that to happen - if we then get a single or three events showing 321 we would had been placing three bets.
So we avoid placing two to three losing bets with one single bet to show us what happens with the bias sequence.

Now i understand this as i wrote it down.
One loss is less then two loses and two loses is less then three loses - does cost us money and drawdowns when we try to stay ahead flatbetting.

So if you try this out - then a good idea is to see a common bias where two events show and then start the attack with two attempts.
Then how you conintue from that beginning into catch more bias is up to you.
One solution among others is to aim for singles as AS exaplain.
https://betselection.cc/asymbacguy/asymbacguy-march/msg61482/#new

Test one variant flatbetting +17 vs. -4

+2
+2
+1.5
-4
+0
+4
+0
+2
+2
+3.5

Cheers

[Sputnik]

I just come to one more conclusion when it boils down to decision making, never start one attack with two attempts when you only have two events showing, you want to see a bias state before entering the game, this make you avoid trippel or alternating where each event show once 231 so when shoe goes 112 you have small bias and 11212122111 you have medium bias and 1121212211121112121221
you have large bias, so my conclusion is to attack when bias is present passing three results to see the particular situation emerge.

We should follow the shoe and what is produce I have shown this several times how the shoe is bias with three states/wave combonation
Never play agains't the shoe - i can easy show you how you can experience two events striking 15 to 25 times in a row that would only take two bets W or LW It does not get better then this

What i ramble above is to reduce the three common loses when you get trippel or alternating results - three loses in a row is to much - we should only exept two loses or less when trying to jump on board a bias

I just need to make this notes.

Cheers

[Sputnik]

I will play this variant in my local casino this weekend - getting great results ...
Notice some things and made some changes to the decision making process.
Will make 100 sessions to see how it holds up.

+30
-4
=26

+8
+2.5
-4
+4
+3
+3
+3
+1.5
+0
+2
+3

[AsymBacGuy]

Yep, those marches are just more controlled approaches to "feel" the random flow of any shoe without having to guess the unguessable.

Think about this.
It's sure as hell that sooner or later one shoe will provide only P singles and P doubles, meaning we'll win every 1-step or 2-step bets. This is the best scenario we could get then going down to just one, two or three "interfering" third unwelcome outcomes.
On B side we'll be retired after watching the same whole 1-2 occurence.
At a lower degree even only singles and triples may form the B or P side and notice that here we are not paying any vig on nearly half of the total bets (B singles and P triples).

Actually and generally speaking, the 1-3 uniform shoe situation will be more likely than the 1-2 counterpart for obvious reasons: 3s need more space to distribute themselves, that is a minor number of total hands per shoe.

Additionally we see that our "perfect" target to aim for must start with two thirds of the possible three outcomes, in the sense that what started fine will have some probability to end fine whereas multiple heterogeneous results will lead but to uncertainty.

If we think the shoe as a possible way to get all winnings, we'll have a better idea when to start or not and to stop or not the wagering.
Of course a shoe is 75-80 hands long, so we must focus on the fragments of it where one outcome could be silent for long.

Sputnik pointed put this quite well.
Baccarat isn't roulette where each spin is independent from the previous one, at baccarat cards are removed from the deck and there's a finite number of hands per every shoe.

Therefore stuff could last for long in the same way that favourable "biases" could last for the entire shoe.
The main mistake of the vast majority of bac players is trying to get the best of it wagering the stuff that keep appearing on the same shoe or, even worse, to raise the bets on subsequent shoes hoping that things have a higher probability to come out on their way.

No way.

Good shoes and terrible shoes can come out consecutively and that's the main reason why 99% of bac players go broke in very short intervals of time.

More on this on my section.

as. 









   



   



   

[Sputnik]

Hello AS it made me happy that is not only me that see the strong bias using my methodology.

I will take this a step further and say the bias shoe has 4 dimensions 4D

1) First state: 1s and 2s
2) Second state: 1s and 3/3+
3) Third state: 2s and 3/3+
4) Forth state: 1s and 2s and 3/3+

The observation is easy, if you get three of the same of two events you have a bias with first, second and third state.
If you do not reach three or more there is no bias and you get a trippel or alternating result 123, chaotic and erratic bias that also can strike and emerge as a bias state.

CHeers