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[alrelax]

Has been a lot of talk lately about finding the edge.

How about taking it on the reverse side?  The side that I tend to seek out various ways which for myself, is to outweigh the losing.   I don't think there is an actual, physical, viable and definable edge and I think that's exactly the problem where most people fall into the doomed fallacy and lose considerably more than they win, in their relentless chase to actually discover an edge.

I say ride what's there when it's there and the presentments are being made. The times you win you have to crush the times you cannot and will not. 

And realizing  what is there and possible, rather than all of your energy thought and vision into what you want to happen that just might not happen. There is no other way to survive in gambling.

[alrelax]

The Magician brought out the Wiki of "Law of Large Numbers" which is pretty good basic stuff to refresh your base knowledge and things to stay conscious of while figuring our your plan(s), IMO.

Here is the link:  "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers"

Look at the simulation of the "Law of Weak Numbers" on the right side, IMO, that is simply fantastic to stare at and envision the baccarat shoe with counts like +10 to +20 on one side (either B or P) and a deficit on the other!  Great!  IT HAPPENS AND HAPPENS in the majority of shoes.  Just the players do not believe it until it is far too late in the shoe for each one of them and then they try to base their decisions on the past sections of the shoe, not the way!

Remember what I wrote a while back about identifying and recognizing?  Here is the link for that.  Check out my identifiable count + or - and equaling out, because the majority of shoes will do exactly that!

https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/identifiable-events-in-baccarat-the-player's-advantage-9286/msg62737/#msg62737

Striving to bet for the short run of "balances" and the reckless use of the word 'Linearity' are other great things, the Magician brought up. 

The times you win have to crush the times you cannot and will not.  There is no other way to survive in gambling, and you can do it if you recognize and wager the proper way when the presentments are there.

So many people just get hung up on the following:  Expected Values coming or going, Variances, Combinations and Correct Decisions of either with or without, etc. 

My suggestions and what has helped me?  Here is what I say:

Deflect and Adapt to the shoe presentments not coming out in your favor.

So is it there and it will it be presented?  There is no way to know until it begins to come out.  If you have a frame-of-mind that any set presentments, events, etc., will happen based on so and so, you will have an extremely tough time to survive at the game.  However, IMO and experience, you have to deflect what comes at you.

Adapt.  You have to adapt if you keep believing in the viable, that is not being presented.  You will ultimately suffer and suffer extremely bad! 

That is where the deflection and the adaption can come in and help you.  But you have to make it happen.

"Unknown Variables".  The variable exists and it has to, or the game would never be there, remember that!  If you do not believe in that, you are losing and will lose even more. 

[Gizmotron]

Here is the definable edge in reading randomness.


Number One. You don't know what is going to happen in future spins or cards dealt.


So everyone concludes because of that there can not be an edge in guessing.


That would be the end of it.


But there is something else to it. You can see trends. Now where reading randomness comes in, you use the same guessing technique to make bet selections from, in other words, guessing. You see a lot of singles so you choose that on the next bet you will bet on singles to win.


Here is where coincidence comes in. It is a coincidence that your bet wins or loses. You don't know what will happen. It does not matter what will happen. All you have to do is watch the trends created by the coincidences that are the results of bets. You can get good at adjusting to the results track of data caused just by placing bets. You could do all this guessing blindly. But why not have a method that selects bets.


To have an edge at this method you must become skillful at reading the conditions of the results data track. If you leave that aspect of guessing unresolved then you will experience the sequence of death that takes out your bankroll. It's that simple and it happens to be a real edge.


Don't believe it? Probably most of you. But Card Counters in Blackjack know when the conditions are favorable and then when to attack the deck. This is no different. It's just based on reading the conditions caused by coincidence instead of reading the variable change which is mathematical in base. You can know favorable conditions based on reading randomness.


Only you can't know them if you don't look for them.

[AsymBacGuy]

Good post, Giz.

Every baccarat gambler will hope to get favourable coincidences.
He bet A or B hoping to get multiple As or Bs or to hope that his careful strategic plan will be always appropriate to the actual conditions.
That's not possible.

The coincidental/non coincidental world comes out randomly but  it is quite unbalanced on short terms and of course is going to be very slight balanced on long terms.
Therefore a strategic plan oriented to get a balancement will bring us to a sure failure, especially if we are not taking care of the actual conditions we are meeting.

At the same time, a stubbornly strategic plan directed to find endless unbalancements on every pattern we cross is going to get the same failure unless we try to know the possible factors that are leading to this.

as.   

[alrelax]

Exactly why I adhere to and look for 'sections with their turning points' to do exactly like what AsymBAC is referring to. 

Referring to trying to catch the time between the unbalanced and the balanced, or attempting to catch the balancing or equaling or the deficit of it.

[AsymBacGuy]

Exactly why I adhere to and look for 'sections with their turning points' to do exactly like what AsymBAC is referring to. 

Referring to trying to catch the time between the unbalanced and the balanced, or attempting to catch the balancing or equaling or the deficit of it.

+1000
This concept is of paramount importance, no matter what strategy we are employing.
Pretend to be a bj player: most of the times you are unfavorite, sometimes you are favorite but things can change dramatically in very few hands in a way (mostly negative) or another.

it's time to set up a team, Glen.

 
as. 

[alrelax]

+1000
This concept is of paramount importance, no matter what strategy we are employing.
Pretend to be a bj player: most of the times you are unfavorite, sometimes you are favorite but things can change dramatically in very few hands in a way (mostly negative) or another.

it's time to set up a team, Glen.

 
as.

Yep.

[ozon]

How to stop looking for the real edge?
If we do, then maybe let's give away the money to the casinos.
We are all on these forums, because the methods we are using to develop all the time.
Thanks to technology and simulation, we are able to develop all the time ..
I do not understand almost at all the so-called subjective edge.
For me, there may be a hard edge, such as counting cards in blackjack.
And I think that some have such edge, whether in roulette or baccarat, but it is not public.

[alrelax]

Completely to the contrary of what you're thinking. There is an edge there and it is there for everybody, but so few see it when it's happening. Then when they finally do if they do, it's reversed back to what it was doing and they cannot apply anything to make a consistent win.

[Albalaha]

Being fully aware of probabilities or what can happen with you from the best to the worst, could be the only "edge" a player can have. That too against regular gamblers, not against casinos. I hope you got my point.

[alrelax]

Being fully aware of probabilities or what can happen with you from the best to the worst, could be the only "edge" a player can have. That too against regular gamblers, not against casinos. I hope you got my point.

Absolutely thank you for the reinforcement.