+ Register

[alrelax]

Most people are under the impression baccarat is a 50/50 game. In some ways it is and some ways it is not. Depending on the way you think, it can be a 100% game or as few as a couple percent, depending upon what you are looking for. In brief, it is a heads or tails, even 50% chance, coin flip. But if you really want to know a percentage, even a close percentage of something happening in baccarat, it can be realized. At least within a few points, say about 1 to 2 percent accurate on the highest numbers and close to a 1/4 or 1/3 on the real little numbers, say under 10%. Keep reading.

The problem most don't or will not recognize is that there are 'killer sequences' which can easily be defined as: 'A flaw exists and always will'. I will explain what I just wrote. Say a mathematical streak calculator has a series of 80 events with a 50% loss probability (or win probability)using it as a 'happening' guide, and a 10 unit/event streak happening at the calculation of 3.5%. A killer sequence would mean in baccarat, 2 ten unit repeating streaks in one shoe. That would be a killer because most would be wagering for the cut and no more streaks, period, almost every single time.  After all, why wager on something that is really like only  a 2 or 3 percent chance of happening once again, in the same shoe!  Then it comes, that is the Killer Sequence, all too familiar to those that have his game.

You can get the idea of Banker or Player but not side bets. Again, won't tell you the order, but you can get a pretty fair judgment of the total outcome within so many events (hands) of a streak happening or using the streak to mean repeating side.

So running my numbers on a 'Streak Probability Calculator' for general mathematics, I came up with the following:

80 Events (Hands)
50% 'Happening' Possibility Odds
Streak Proposed
Streak Probability % Defined
_______________________________________
Events: 80, 1 Shoe
Length of Streak: 1 Hand
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 2 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 3 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 4 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 97.6%

Length of Streak: 5 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 74.6%

Length of Streak: 6 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 46.8%

Length of Streak: 7 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 26.1%

Length of Streak: 8 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 13.7%

Length of Streak: 9 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 6.9%

Length of Streak: 10 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 3.5%

Length of Streak: 11 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 1.7%

_______________________
Take 2 Shoes/160 Events:
_______________________
Length of Streak: 1 Hand
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 2 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 3 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 4 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 5 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 95.6%

Length of Streak: 6 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 73.2%

Length of Streak: 7 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 46.6%

Length of Streak: 8 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 26.4

Length of Streak: 9 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 14.0%

Length of Streak: 10 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 7.2%

Length of Streak: 11 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 3.6%
__________________________

Take 4 Shoes/320 Events:
__________________________

Length of Streak: 1 Hand
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 2 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 3 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 4 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 5 hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 6 hands
Chance of Occurrence: 94.3%

Length of Streak: 7 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 72.3%

Length of Streak: 8 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 46.5%

Length of Streak: 9 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 26.6%

Length of Streak: 10 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 14.2%

Length of Streak: 11 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 7.3%
_________________________
Take 5 Shoes/400 Events:
_________________________

Length of Streak: 1 Hand
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 2 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 3 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 4 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 5 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 6 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 100%

Length of Streak: 7 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 79.9%

Length of Streak: 8 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 54.4%

Length of Streak: 9 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 32.2%

Length of Streak: 10 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 17.5%

Length of Streak: 11 Hands
Chance of Occurrence: 9.1%

Respect the chance of occurrence and don't expect/count of 'killer sequences' to repeat themselves, they usually will hurt you because you failed to recognize what is happening at any given time.

Know the possibilities/probability of something happening you are looking for! It might just help you when you are playing shoe after shoe after shoe.

Also remember, any calculation is not gospel or science, it is just that, a mathematical calculation. A very low number, like might happen 3.6% like a 11 unit streak and then followed by another 10 or 11 or even a 12 or 13 unit streak--might just happen really blowing the percentage clean out of the ball park as far as probability.

[alrelax]

1) Sure there is deviation and variance, absolutely 100%;

2) Be sure your base knowledge is very good for the game you sit down at;

3) Besides key aspects such as Money Management, Progressions and knowing when to stop whether losing or winning, other knowledge is mandatory for giving yourself extra 'horsepower';

4) The figures and the visual realization of what I posted in the running chart above is pretty real in many shoes. As I explain IMO below.

5) There is no science or mathematical system that can ever following itself in gambling card games, no matter how great the odds.

#4 Continued: In all my years of playing baccarat, I have seen only one shoe and one shoe only never having more than a double repeat. Never a 3'rd. Yes, very rare indeed. Ask dealers and floor people and see how many they have witnessed. Likewise, I have never ever seen one shoe of complete alternating chop. I have seen close to about 3/4 of one shoe with alternating hands, but never a whole shoe. Hell, I sat down last week at a local casino and the shoe was super strong. 6 Bankers and a tie and then another 4 or so squares over, exactly the same 6 more bankers and a tie. Then another couple of squares over 8 Players and a bit later another 9 players if not 10. The numbers as a 'chance of occurrence' is based on everything fresh and equal I am sure. However, say sitting down and playing 2 shoes with 160 events. Expecting a few Banker runs in excess of 10 repeating hands in one shoe is far fetched and probably won't happen and according to the calculation it would be about a 3.6% of happening for one streak in excess of 10. However, will 1's, 2's, 3's and 4's happen---sure they will. Nothing has to happen in baccarat in excess of 1 repeating chance of occurrence, meaning one hand Banker and one hand Player. That is 100% chance of occurrence. However, I highly doubt every single hand will be Banker and then Player and then Banker and then Player for 80 hands or 160 or 320 or 640, etc. I have seen regularly 10-18 hands alternating chop with 1 on each side. But, set aside everything, the percentage numbers I displayed in the above post represent a pretty close estimate of a certain event happening within a shoe or shoes. I don't know about you, but I would have to agree with the calculation that a one time 6 concurrent event will happen about 46.8% of the times in one shoe and possibly happen at least once in 5 shoes. Sure, absolutely you can have that same one time event of 6 happen 7 times in one shoe, thus the deviation blowing the 46.3% chance clean out of the water!  But the figures are meant to represent telling you what the percentage of something happening, NOT how many times it will or will not happen in a shoe.

The same as people talking about edge sorting and in baccarat you can get 9's or 8's for an entire shoe for the player dealt and never get a monkey with that on the second card following, etc. Then other shoes, every second card that follows an 8 or a 9 would prove to be a monkey.

Back to my thoughts. So if I sit down and was into my 5th shoe and did not see a 9 streak event as of yet, I would know there was roughly a 32% chance of one happening before the end of the shoe. Is it going to, don't know. But I do know that there was just under a 7% chance of it happening in the first 80 hands I played. I do know myself, if I was sitting at a baccarat table and was into my 5th or 6th shoe, I am a hell of a lot more inclined to wager on the same side after the 4th or 5th repeating hand rather than switch my wager for the cut, if the previous 4 or so shoes had nothing but 3's and 4's and maybe one or two streaks of 5's, etc., etc.

Personally, I rather base a wagering choice off of percentages rather than strictly gut, big or small road score board results, or other phenomenal 'events' that took place, etc.

[Babu]

Nice post.  What is the calculation for chops?

[alrelax]

Events in this case would be for Bankers/Players.  There is no way to even start to do a pattern/trend mixing B's with P's and/or side bets, etc.  Strictly Bankers and Players repeating themselves. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Now your are talking my language :-)

Nice post Al.

as.

[alrelax]

Now your are talking my language :-)

Nice post Al.

as.

The last couple of days at my office, tons of paperwork and reports on the Haz-Mat side, but I spent a lot of time thinking about this.  Just hard to express it in words.  Also, please, everyone--this is a mathematical visualization of what the percentages are for a 'streak event' doesn't matter if its cards or wall street with successful trades.  Also, one would have to add the 1-2% house 'hold' for bac as well. 

But you know, when I look at the percentage numbers I do believe they are pretty close to a typical shoe, of course there are those killer sequences and killer shoes hiding with an unknown time their appearances will be forthcoming.