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[alrelax]

From 'Asym's' posting in another thread:

............"Everyone could make this simple experiment: assess the B/P ratio after one shoe, after 3 shoes, after 10 shoes and after 30 shoes.

Almost never after just one shoe you'll get the famous 50.68/49.32 ratio. More shoes considered and higher will be the probability to get closer to such ratio by 100% certainty.................."

The problem so many miss, overlook, care not to be conscious of, do not want to be conscious of, ignore, will not admit or just plain too inexperienced (under 10 years of play) in baccarat, is that what they sit down to play is not what the statistics represented or what they figured out to be the greatest advantage for them and not the house.

The shoe with the perfect pattern/trend/outcome (Whatever each of us calls it) might not repeat itself for quite some time and then again, the following shoe (or two) might hold almost exactly to the previous one for all the events leading to almost each hand. 

And simply, that is the #1 problem players encounter.  Run all the stats and all the test shoes you want until you computer screams for a rest---they mean nothing in the casino, not one thing. The only thing you learned was the outcome of those shoes or test pattern.  If you are convinced of the outcome and you know for a fact the outcome was correct and representative of what is going to happen in every shoe of baccarat, then play that same number of shoes in your test pattern.  Simple, isn't it.

In reality, what one has to do, is look at each and every shoe of that test pattern you ran, and then pick out groups of 4 and 6 shoes, maybe 20,000 to 25,000 groups out of the hundreds of thousands of shoes you ran in your test, and see if your learned key triggers represent themselves on each and everyone of those smaller groups, because those smaller group is what you are going to realize as a player at the casino.

And to close, what 'Asym' said that I quoted in the beginning here, is maybe the reason those long term baccarat players with years and years of experience have all had the displeasure to experience.  Those long weekends or multi day extremely long play periods.  Those where you won a little, lost the winnings, won a bunch, lost a bunch, went all the way down to the last of your bank roll and then slowly built back up.  Then lost it all at the end, which was many times greater amount of shoes than you normally play.  Like maybe 40 shoes over your 3 or 4 day session. 

What I am trying to bring out, is how many times that same 'player advantage result' that you are so confident you quantitated does not appear in those 4 or 6 or 8 shoe random picked groups??

  Simple.  

[Bally6354]

Good post Alrelax and you are right.

To quote Craig Greiner from his book....

''Our camparison revealed that at any given moment, the framed deviation that isolates what is actually happening with the game varies by 10% to 30% from what is supposed to be happening.''

So you begin to see that it's not the 1% to 5% commission which kills players. It's by going against what is actually happening right now at the table.

cheers

[alrelax]

Good post Alrelax and you are right.

To quote Craig Greiner from his book....

''Our camparison revealed that at any given moment, the framed deviation that isolates what is actually happening with the game varies by 10% to 30% from what is supposed to be happening.''

So you begin to see that it's not the 1% to 5% commission which kills players. It's by going against what is actually happening right now at the table.

cheers

Exactly, that is the reason I tried so hard to bring out that same point and the psychology of the typical baccarat player's mind and the casino setting.

If any of you have been around Asian people and the baccarat tables for some time, then the following will touch you in a humerous but dead on serious way.

The other night at the table was an older Asian gentlemen playing with his peers.  He had one of those moles near his chin and it had a couple of very long hairs growing out of it.  I have an Asian uncle (does not gamble) and he believes in the same thing, those hairs will give the person extreme luck, cannot cut them no matter what.  So this Asian guy is at the table and it is streaking/running one side.  Then, 1 hit for the opposite side and right back to the side that was streaking.  The Asian guy with the hair growing out of the mole, consults his peers, tells them how it will streak and how it will end.  Meanwhile he is touching those hairs from the mole against his face to the ends of those long hairs, his fingers will grasp the hairs and slide down all the way.  I know 100% what he is doing and he only does it right before he wagers and instructs all the other Asians to wager the same way. 

Well long story short, he won a few wagers and then went against the streak with the infamous 'I know it will cut because of so-and-so', etc., etc.  It was a 'gimmie. shoe of at least 40-50 hands and I get up and tell him, "Maybe it is time to cut those strands of hair growing out of that thing on your face".  A couple laughed, the rest where shocked at the white man that told it the way it was.

[Garfield]

To quote Craig Greiner from his book....

''Our camparison revealed that at any given moment, the framed deviation that isolates what is actually happening with the game varies by 10% to 30% from what is supposed to be happening.''

Well I agree with this. "It should/suppose to be like this but s*#t happens..."

[AsymBacGuy]

I reply just because you started the thread quoting an excerpt of my post.

True, every player is going to look at a very small percentage of what could happen.
Still every minuscule part of what he actually plays must fall into the general mathematical and statistical laws, at least in terms of probability.

If after the BPBPP pattern the next more likely outcome is B and instead a P comes out 16 times in a row, are we going to state that the pattern BPBPPP is more likely than BPBPPB?
This is a 4 sr deviation, a thing that could happen.

How many times this situation will come out?
And, more importantly, are we really going to stubbornly look for a B when the previous patterns have kept an opposite line?

Or, even worse, are we going to bet P as we are trying to follow the actual line?

The game is variance loaded hence the importance to select at most our bets, there are no easy winnings other than due to short term positive variance.

Let's make an experiment.

Suppose we want to play baccarat trying not to win something but to lose our entire session's bankroll as eventually we are awarded a juicy prize.

Having a $500 bankroll with $10 minimum bets we are playing to lose and we have to bet only B or P.

What's the best action to enhance the probability to lose all the money?

I'm curious to hear some comments about this.

After all, if you have a sure way to lose it would be great news as your new plan is acting just in the opposite way.

as.   











   



   

[Garfield]

Well IMO maybe that's the new pov. After all IMO you should ready to lose your bankroll when you enter the casino. So that's why a wise man said "never play with the money you can't afford to lose"

If you win, well that's a bonus.

The problem is sometimes player have a strong will to win each and every time they played. So if the initial br is gone, they buy in more to "regain/recoup or whatever" their lost.

[alrelax]

Well IMO maybe that's the new pov. After all IMO you should ready to lose your bankroll when you enter the casino. So that's why a wise man said "never play with the money you can't afford to lose"

If you win, well that's a bonus.

The problem is sometimes player have a strong will to win each and every time they played. So if the initial br is gone, they buy in more to "regain/recoup or whatever" their lost.

And that tis a huge problem.  Many playing online only will not see what happens at the casino and being at the casino, the average bac player is easily influenced.  Sometimes it is for the better and many times for the worse.  Of course many other factors come into play, like amount of time playing, etc.  But as I said in my other post that started this:

".........The shoe with the perfect pattern/trend/outcome (Whatever each of us calls it) might not repeat itself for quite some time and then again, the following shoe (or two) might hold almost exactly to the previous one for all the events leading to almost each hand"......... 

[Garfield]

For me (online player) maybe the advantage (or disadv?) of not being "there" in B&M casino is I could stop anytime, watch some tv or sleep, and could limit the "emotion" factor.

I once got so mad of losing that I smashed my laptop. And that was it, I couldn't continue to play even if I wanted to.

When I was in macau for my honeymoon, it was 31st Dec 08. It was Venetian and I had my "honeymoon" suites there. Full house, saw an Indian bussinesman throw maybe around $300 on several number in roulete table, and saw the dealer racked his chips to the tray. Almost midnight, the MC started to count for the new year, and guess what, the player around the table didn't event bother to look what was going on. LoL. What a sight for me.

Well, back to the "theory", anything could and couldn't happen. Too bad we aren't that lucky enough.

So just play, if you win cheerish it and if the way goes around just go home. Haha.

[alrelax]

For me (online player) maybe the advantage (or disadv?) of not being "there" in B&M casino is I could stop anytime, watch some tv or sleep, and could limit the "emotion" factor. (Yes, I agree, I don't play and never did on-line, but I wrote a lot of the emotional and psych aspects which I think is huge in a casino for the players)

I once got so mad of losing that I smashed my laptop. And that was it, I couldn't continue to play even if I wanted to. (LOL, I love it!  Did I ever show you what happens when you gamble at work, I will find it and post it right here)  As well, I have a video of an Asian girl that got pissed over gambling on the subway in NYC, I will post that also)

When I was in macau for my honeymoon, it was 31st Dec 08. It was Venetian and I had my "honeymoon" suites there. Full house, saw an Indian bussinesman throw maybe around $300 on several number in roulete table, and saw the dealer racked his chips to the tray. Almost midnight, the MC started to count for the new year, and guess what, the player around the table didn't event bother to look what was going on. LoL. What a sight for me.

Well, back to the "theory", anything could and couldn't happen. Too bad we aren't that lucky enough.

So just play, if you win cheerish it and if the way goes around just go home. Haha. (almost all will say they are going to--but won't leave.  Sure, they go and cash out and stop by the table on the way out for just one or two more bet and then another and another and another)