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[21 Aces]

You will find many elements of what a baccarat player does wrong in this movie even though the subject is sports betting.  There is so much wrong and some right in this movie that it is worthwhile for every baccarat player to watch.  In fact, this is almost a go to guide for observing and finding baccarat players on a floor that you can short (bet opposite).  Taking financial risk is taking financial risk.

Really some insane comments and concepts throughout.  Very surprising to see the financial trader make so much complete sense at times and then counter that with statements that make no sense at all.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbpSsEQL0ZY

[Sputnik]

Thanks i will watch this movie ...

Cheers

[alrelax]

You will find many elements of what a baccarat player does wrong in this movie even though the subject is sports betting.  There is so much wrong and some right in this movie that it is worthwhile for every baccarat player to watch.  In fact, this is almost a go to guide for observing and finding baccarat players on a floor that you can short (bet opposite).  Taking financial risk is taking financial risk.

Really some insane comments and concepts throughout.  Very surprising to see the financial trader make so much complete sense at times and then counter that with statements that make no sense at all.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbpSsEQL0ZY

IMO and from my business experience over the years:

Books and movies are 100% subjective and usually tailored to whatever it is the author/writer/producer/director wants to convey and usually for monetary reasons, not personal or life changing pursuits.  In NO WAY are they gospel or can a random one be tailored to an 'end all' change-all guide for making money.  Can points and tips be found, sure--why not. 

As far as 'financial risk' in business, whether it is gambling or regular business, I have to have it covered, no matter what it is--or I will not do it.  I have to really want to do it--or I will not do it.  The quick fix to make a buck is usually illegal, wrong (bad karma) or will blow up in your face for numerous reasons.  Believe what you want. 

In business, I pay in advance and then set aside and lock up money each and every time it comes in.  Split it up and allocate it all.  Same as gambling at baccarat!!!!

I have my mortgage on the property covered with 6 to 8 payments locked up in envelopes.  I have a set aside account at the bank in addition to the regular checking account and as well, the payroll and tax account is also separate.  I have to keep a good 5 to 7 months of total expenses and enough to cover the expenses of any jobs (I have expenses on jobs that always have to be paid prior to receiving the job payment the bulk of the times).  That way I can go for numerous months without anything coming in, which is doubtful.  Everything is covered or I believe I would fail.  Insurance, trucks upkeep and maintenance expenses, payroll and payroll tax payments, personnel misc expense, health care insurance co-payment, phones, utilities, inventory, permits, office supplies, grounds upkeep and maintenance, equipment replacements and upkeep, etc.  When i get in a payment so a small job for $10,000.00, I replenish whatever I need to bring it up to whatever level i am comfortable at and if that payment cannot do it---split it up.  Maybe 25% towards the replenishment of monies spent, 25% towards reserve fund, 25% for current bills and 25% for me in my commissions and bonus set-aside.  To me, that is the only way to run a business. 

As well, I do almost the same thing with my gambling, my 1/3rd money management system so many have commented on here will not work.  Which is, 1/3rd to my buy in stack, 1/3rd to my pocket and can never ever be touched at the casino and 1/3rd for a possible second buy-in if things favor it and i desire to stay if my buy in is depleted.  My wins will fuel my continued existence at the table.  Works great and when every other player is getting his buy ins and bankroll supplemented by his wins---then his larger wagers and continued existence at the table usually every time wipes him out.  I seldom leave the casino with losing my buy in and maintain no win money, extremely rare, once in a while, but rare. 

Business is no different, it is all in allocation , survival and planning, all of it!

As far as the Shorting/opposite, good luck with that.  You will most likely pull yourself under with that one eventually, big time.  Wrong thought and wrong ammunition, IMO. 

Because, you fuel yourself with 'false aura', 'false system' and 'false conception'.  It will work and then it will not work.  Been there and done it many times.  Heck, I still occasionally will do it, most of the time subconsciously and then I wake up.  The game is won and lose by almost every player, some win more and some lose more.  Some wager super trivial and don't care if they lose or not and then pounce on it once in awhile and score huge.  Numerous protocols from each player.  But the player that sits there and repeatedly wagers and repeatedly loses is probably what you are talking about.  However, yes--at times.  But that is no different that in a shoe that is producing solid and repetitive patterns that no one will follow and they continue to wager their 'cut' theories or the people that believe the statistics will 100% be produced in the 3 shoes they will be playing, etc.  All you are doing is adding a 'system' by classifying a player as a loser based on what you see.  And the sad part about it, he might not lose those 10 times you wager against him (shorted him) out of the 100 he will lose out of 130 if you were not wagering against him.  For the 1 or 2 years experience a player has that chooses this style of wagering, he has not played the game long enough to realize what might happen.  All IMO of course.

I did it last week.  There was a player wagering one way and i said to myself he is losing.  I wagered against him several times and the only reason I placed the wager was because he was repeatedly losing.  This guy always loses at the end of the night, almost always.  I won like 4 hands, maybe 5 hands straight by wagering that way.  Then I look at the board and really studied it.  It was half way through the shoe.  I believe in sections with turning points.  They always come out and always are produced, period.  Each one of those wagers I made and won, were 100% clear wagers I would have made anyway based solely on what the shoe has produced within that section after a certain turning point.  The reason he lost his wagers was, he wagered against what the shoe was producing, the shoe was super strong and getting stronger and he believed for the 'cut' the regression to the mean--every single hand.  I wagered against him but i was also wagering (without knowing it) with what the shoe was producing.  And I would everyday of the week with my last money, wager with the shoe rather than the continual, 'against the shoe' which is so prevalent these days.  What these people count on is the same as the following.  "I will get on such and such highway and speed because there are never cops on that one", no different. 

I will cut it here because so many will only say my posts are too long.  Last week there was 48 or so players and 20 something bankers at the end of the shoe.  The majority of the players around hand 65 or so was heavy, real heavy on Bankers and lost so much money.  It was super strong players, regression was not coming and sometimes it is like that.  They cannot see it.  They don't believe it. They wager on what they want, not what the shoe is producing, plain and simple.  There is a difference and a huge difference.  BUT, HOWEVER, there are little 'blurbs of catch up' by the opposite side, like the banker never makes over a 3 repeat maybe once the whole shoe sitting at and 60 or so, and then a 4th banker comes out.  The players faces light up, heavy wagers, like table max times 5 or 6 people, huge money.  Then the player comes out.  They repeat the same exact thing like 3 times.  Heavy losses.  Although there banker side never really even came close to catching up---they got sucked in, exactly why that electronic board is there, exactly the fall of 99% of all baccarat losses. I hope you understand what i am trying to get across, it is so simple yet so complicated. 

[21 Aces]

Yes.  The following are two of many examples I think are good shorts:

1.  The majority of players are riding a Long Bank/ Player Dragon or Dragon Tail or other strong formation, and there are one or more players in the clear minority countering who are getting run over.  They might even be buying in multiple times to continue their negative progression against.

2. Many times I have seen a player step up to make a very large outsized bet with a strong 'certainty factor', and they have been wrong.  For example they typically bet $500 - $1,000 and are suffering losses so they find a sure fire play (that actually looks good) and go $10,000.


These guys yap, yap, yap about Super Bowl and liquidity and the hundreds of millions to a billion bet on the game, but it is just another game and they are not betting very big at all in relation to that.  That is, they don't need the liquidity and are making this game so special.  I have experienced this first hand in college ball where a key powerhouse match up was given too much importance on a regular college football Saturday (plenty of other games to choose from that are easier, but less 'glamorous').

They play all kinds of ridiculous exotics.  Wide left on a field goal.  REALLY?  That is like going around and just betting Tie without a very smart strategy coupled to it to finance it.  Or I have seen players specifically look for very strong formations to counter them.  Or other table games where they bet way too large on high payout bets.

I think a big no is making one game so important in sports betting, just like in baccarat a very strong play on a hand can still go wrong.

[alrelax]

They play all kinds of ridiculous exotics.

I think a big no is making one game so important in sports betting, just like in baccarat a very strong play on a hand can still go wrong.

Any wager from anyone can go wrong at anytime anywhere.  I have seen the players that win the longest and the hardest, lose in succession or in spurts or not for some time.  Likewise, the players that lose the most, I have seen them start to win and keep winning totally getting the other players upset for whatever reason.  Their overall pictures stay the same, by the succession they do it in (IMO) is what cannot be quantified for whatever 'defined' reason.

The other week I did exactly that.  Every hand I wagered against a player (strictly on my own thoughts, own decision and NOT against him) I would lose.  Then I purposely went with him, I 'co-rode' his wager placement.  100% followed him, heck he was winning!  Then he lost, EVERY SINGLE HAND, plain and simple!  I am talking about 8 to 10 losses with the first one when he was winning and then another good 7 or 8 when I went with him.  LOL, even the dealer said the same thing, turned to me and shook her head, she knew my style and what i do 97% of the time and she knew I followed him a few times.  Works both ways!!!!!   

[Sputnik]

 I see a trailer about the Movie where one Pro say he risk his bankroll that season.
Does tiny small words and comment make me react and start my thinking process.
 
Even if his a pro and know how to win and make living upon that - he should never risk is hole bankroll - that is lack of disciplined.
Then i think i am better then that - not as good at winning using sportsbets - but handle bankroll management.

For example if i have 5000 Euro and risk 250 Euro to win 25% twice and end up with 125 Euro - half the investment is a very good return.
Now i would never risk my 250 Euro again until i lose - but i would now invest 125 Euro to win 25% twice and end up with 65 units.
So i made a total of 190 units during six sessions and only risk my own money during the two first sessions.

From this moment i would continue with 125 Euro winning two more session and after that maybe risk 250 Euro again or stay at 125.
The advantage i see with this is that you never try to win back the hole investment during one session and that you operate with casinos money after resonable risk management.
So i am a fan of regression in different shapes and after that use Up & Pull to gain more money with out risking the first original investment.

I think i can learn things from this movie - i have been thinking to take one year vacation from work - i can afford it - and play full time to test my wings and see if it can be done.
The two main obstacles i see is to be disciplined and handle psychological pressure making a living on gambling.

And i am conservative, so i have been thinking to risk 5 Euro units base bets and lower making half the money to make a living so you don't lose it all and go bankrupt if don't succeed.
So halve income comes from your own savings and half the income comes from the gambling.
Then if you get a positiv return each month trading the game you can quit work and use higher base bet to earn full salary.

But i don't know if the movie show this aspect - but the government and tax institution will start to ask questions why you don't pay tax and show zero income each year - that can become a issue.
And the biggest problem that i expect the movie is missing is the pension - when you reach the age 65 and should live and enjoy life as old and get your pay check (pension) from the government each month - then that amount of money or pension salary is based upon your working hours from age 20 to 65 and you might get around 1500 Euro.
But if you quit work before age 65 you will lose a large % of your pension and will never reach 1500 Euro each month. But there is a minimum guarantee pension around 700 Euro plus taxes, so that would be around 500 Euro.

Now my point is that you need to win big and play big sometimes to save money for the old days and also if you get bad health or get sick - then you can not play - maybe online.
So there is many questions about being a pro that strike me other then just winning and make a daily living.

One last example and important lesson, how many online casinos welcome back a winning player and how long does it take to get banned from most of them.
So here comes other method into the calculations - losing with intention sometimes - just to look more lucky even if you could win most of them with bigger return - this might make you be allowed to stay longer playing online and be more welcome as they would have a more difficult time to exclusive stamp you only as pure winning gambler.

Cheers